Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Views - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience positive growth factors in 2025, driven by innovation, international expansion, and an aging population [4][5] - The report highlights the significant unmet demand for new drugs in the epilepsy and depression markets, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies like Hainan Haiyao and Warner Pharmaceuticals [3][4] Summary by Sections Epilepsy Market Potential - Approximately 9 million epilepsy patients in China, with about 30% unresponsive to current treatments, indicating a substantial market opportunity [10][11] - The anti-epileptic drug market in China is projected to exceed 10 billion yuan, with significant growth potential for innovative drugs targeting KCNQ channels [4][10][12] Depression Treatment Demand - Depression poses a major public health threat, with a global market for antidepressants expected to reach $17.6 billion by 2030 [39] - The report emphasizes the urgent need for rapid-acting and effective treatments for major depressive disorder with suicidal ideation (MDSI), highlighting the limitations of traditional antidepressants [41][43] Key Companies and Products - Warner Pharmaceuticals' ZG001, a modified version of ketamine, shows promise in treating depression without addiction risks, currently in clinical trials [47] - Johnson & Johnson's Spravato (esketamine) is the only approved treatment for MDSI, with projected sales reaching $3 billion by 2027 [44][45] Industry Trends - The report notes a successful transition from generic to innovative drug development in China, with companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Kelun Pharmaceutical leading the way [5] - The aging population is driving demand for treatments related to chronic diseases, further enhancing the growth prospects for the pharmaceutical sector [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Viewpoints - The overseas technology sector shows strong growth, with Google reporting Q1 2025 revenue of $90.2 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $34.54 billion, up 46% year-on-year [20] - The capital expenditure for Google in Q1 2025 was $17.2 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year, primarily for server and data center investments to support growth in Google services, Google Cloud, and Google DeepMind [20] - The AI data center demand remains strong, as indicated by Amazon and Nvidia's statements [20] Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong and US technology sectors rebounded during the week of April 21 to April 25, 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising 2.0% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 10.9% [11][13] - The top five gainers in the week included WOLFSPEED (+32%), Microchip Technology (+22%), and Tesla (+18%) [13] - The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization increased to $2.99 trillion, up from $2.66 trillion the previous week [22] Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently neutral, with the Fear and Greed Index at 52 [26] - The core assets in the cryptocurrency market saw a net inflow of $3.063 billion over the week [31] - The price of core cryptocurrency assets rose above $95,000, driven by easing policy uncertainties and potential tariff reductions on China [37] Recent Important Events - Google reported strong Q1 2025 earnings, with significant growth across various segments, including cloud services [20] - The cryptocurrency market experienced a surge in trading volume and investor interest due to favorable news regarding US-China trade relations [37] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies in the AI and cryptocurrency sectors are scheduled for late April and early May 2025 [21][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the progress of AI companion products and the upcoming cycles of new game products, suggesting a focus on the launch timelines of these games [3][4] - The integration of AI with gaming is highlighted as a potential area for innovation, particularly in mobile internet where user experience and commercialization are currently weaker [4][5] - The report suggests that leading gaming companies exploring AI+gaming paradigms may demonstrate significant effects, potentially leading to a revaluation of related listed companies [4] Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - The release of the 3D AI boyfriend product "EVE" by the company "Natural Selection" is noted, with internal testing set to begin soon [3][4] - The report recommends focusing on the integration of simulation and nurturing games with AI elements, as this could lead to breakthroughs in user engagement and monetization [4] - Key companies to watch include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World among others [4] AI Application Direction - The report discusses the MCP protocol led by Anthropic, which aims to standardize AI model interactions with various data sources and tools, potentially accelerating the AI agent ecosystem [5] - Companies that embrace new technologies and have advantages in data, users, and application scenarios are recommended for continued observation [5] Smart Hardware and Multi-modal Models - The report indicates a trend towards the combination of smart hardware and multi-modal large models, with major players like ByteDance and Xiaomi increasing their investments [6] - Opportunities in AI-driven upgrades in industries such as toys, education, and home goods are highlighted [6] Card and Trendy Toys - The report notes that the card game company "KAYOU" has submitted an IPO application, with 2024 revenues reported at 10.057 billion yuan and adjusted net profits at 4.466 billion yuan, indicating high sector vitality [8] - Companies involved in card games and trendy toys are recommended for continued focus [8] Marketing Direction - The report mentions that Focus Media plans to acquire 100% of New Trend Media, which will enhance its media resource coverage and competitive capabilities [8] Film Sector - The report highlights the upcoming reduction in the import of American films, with a focus on promoting high-quality domestic films [9] - Companies involved in the production and distribution of key films are recommended for observation [9] Internet Sector - The report notes the active trading in Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on AI and cloud businesses, suggesting that leading companies like Tencent and Alibaba may see a revaluation in the context of AI development [10] Market Review - The report provides a market review indicating that from April 21 to April 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.56%, while the media sector ranked 25th among all industries with a slight decline of 0.11% [10][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The logistics sector is showing resilience with a steady increase in express delivery volumes and revenues, indicating a robust demand environment [5][6][22] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends favoring growth [15] - The shipping sector faces challenges due to ongoing tariff conflicts, but oil tanker demand is projected to rise due to geopolitical factors [15] Summary by Sections Logistics - National logistics operations were stable from April 14 to April 20, with rail freight at 75.61 million tons (down 1.66% week-on-week) and express delivery volumes reaching approximately 3.95 billion pieces (up 3.59%) [5] - Shentong Express reported a significant improvement in 2024, with revenues of 47.169 billion yuan (up 15.26%) and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan (up 250.24%) [6] - The overall express delivery market is characterized by strong demand and limited price decline, with major players like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng benefiting from cyclical recovery [15] Aviation - Huaxia Airlines reported a net profit of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 232% increase year-on-year, driven by increased flight operations and passenger volumes [9] - The airline industry is expected to see a rebound in ticket sales, with a long-term positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand [15] Shipping - The shipping sector is experiencing significant operational adjustments due to ongoing US-China tariff conflicts, with a 44% year-on-year decrease in vessel numbers to US ports [11] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3.4% to 1305 points, indicating a potential recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [12] - Oil tanker demand is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and limited new ship orders, suggesting a favorable outlook for the oil shipping segment [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic circulation and cyclical investment opportunities in response to the current economic challenges and geopolitical tensions [4] - It suggests that the central government's recent policy adjustments indicate a shift towards prioritizing domestic demand and infrastructure investment as a more stable and controllable option compared to external factors [4] - The report anticipates that local government bond policies will accelerate, providing liquidity support for the economy, and predicts a potential early turnaround in cyclical sectors [4] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 0.2%, while the cement and glass fiber indices experienced declines of 1.0% and increases of 1.8% respectively [8] - Notable stock performances included gains from companies like Jianfeng Group (+14.1%) and losses from companies like Jingang Photovoltaic (-11.7%) [8] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 390.8 RMB/ton, down 1.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 35.7% year-on-year [15] - The cement inventory ratio stands at 61.8%, unchanged month-on-month but down 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [15] - The cement shipment rate is 47.6%, down 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [15] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1421.7 RMB/ton, up 0.7 RMB/ton month-on-month but down 402.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [31] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 5.618 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% month-on-month but up 2.4% year-on-year [31] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 14.3 RMB/sqm, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1 RMB/sqm year-on-year [36] - The inventory days for photovoltaic glass have increased to 26.85 days, up 3.1% month-on-month and 44.7% year-on-year [36] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4745.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 715.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month but up 1750.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [43] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 2.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [46] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 60.19%, up 1.09 percentage points month-on-month and 11.45 percentage points year-on-year [46] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing efforts in various regions to stabilize the real estate market, including new housing plans in Qingdao and government initiatives in Guangdong [14] - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability in the real estate market and capital markets, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 774 billion yuan, leading to a marginal easing of the capital market. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond active bond continued to fluctuate around the 1.65% central level, pricing in an expected interest rate cut of about 30BP. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may still return above 1.7% this year [2][42]. - Overall, the credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to focus on short - duration moderate credit - risk exposure for coupon income and also pay attention to the convex points in the 3 - 5Y term structure to increase returns. For industrial bonds, the short - end credit spreads compressed slightly while the long - end widened slightly. It is advisable to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads fluctuated slightly, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure of AA and AA+ bank secondary capital bonds [2][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 435.5 billion yuan this week, a week - on - week increase of 255.1 billion yuan. The total issuance was 751.5 billion yuan, up 299.4 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 316 billion yuan, up 44.3 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 36.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 11.3 billion yuan [6]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 30.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 188.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 60.5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 216.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 231.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - Except for the issuance rates of AAA financial bonds and AA+ urban investment bonds, which increased, the issuance rates of other rated credit bonds decreased to varying degrees. Specifically, the issuance rates of AA - rated urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 3BP and 12BP respectively compared with last week; the issuance rate of AA+ - rated industrial bonds decreased by 11BP; and the issuance rates of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds and AAA - rated financial bonds increased by 4BP and 7BP respectively compared with last week [14]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 11.7 billion yuan week - on - week. By product type, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 254.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 12.3 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 363.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 369.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.8 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 2.11 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 billion yuan [15]. - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated slightly compared with last week. Specifically, the turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 2.16%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 percentage points [16]. 3.2.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different terms and ratings increased to varying degrees this week. In AA+ - rated credit bonds, the yields of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y increased by more than 5BP; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the yield of 7 - 10Y increased by more than 5BP. Except for the yield of AA+ credit bonds below 1Y, which decreased by less than 1BP compared with last week, the yields of other term and rating credit bonds increased by no more than 5BP [20][21]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries fluctuated slightly this week. In AA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of non - bank finance and public utilities widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively compared with last week; in AA+ - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of electronics and pharmaceutical biology widened by 7BP and 5BP respectively; in AAA - rated credit bonds, the industry credit spreads of leisure services, national defense and military industry, household appliances, and automobiles widened by 5BP, 5BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively. In addition, the credit spread of the AA+ chemical industry narrowed by 5BP, and that of the AAA real estate industry narrowed by 7BP. The credit spreads of different ratings in other industries fluctuated by less than 5BP compared with last week [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened this week, with the long - end widening more than the short - end. By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened, while those in a few regions narrowed slightly. The top five regions with the highest credit spreads of AA - rated, AA+ - rated, and AAA - rated urban investment bonds were listed respectively [28][29]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed a pattern of slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end this week. It is recommended to continue to focus on high - rating short - duration industrial bonds for coupon income and increase positions on dips [32]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: The credit spreads of bank capital bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with fluctuations within 3BP for different terms and ratings. The overall pattern was slight compression at the short - end and slight widening at the long - end. It is recommended to focus on short - duration and highly liquid varieties for defense and capture the riding income at the convex points of the term structure [36]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. announced its plan to delist from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and transfer to the National Equities Exchange and Quotations. This led to a downgrade of the implied ratings of a total of 65 bonds issued by AVIC Industry Finance and its subsidiaries [40]. - Other negative public opinions included the downgrade of the implied ratings of "17 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" and "16 Chaoyang Bank Secondary" issued by Chaoyang Bank Co., Ltd., the extension of "20 Tianqian 02" issued by Hubei Tianqian Asset Management Co., Ltd., and the extension of "H20 Xinyuan 1" and "H21 Xinyuan 1" issued by Xinyuan (China) Real Estate Co., Ltd. [2][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a low-cost leader in mica lithium extraction, driven by dual engines of lithium battery and special steel businesses. The successful expansion of mining rights and anticipated growth in lithium salt production capacity are expected to enhance profitability as lithium prices stabilize and recover [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2000, has evolved from a stainless steel manufacturer to a leader in the lithium battery materials sector, maintaining a top-three market share in stainless steel long products. A strategic shift began in 2017 towards lithium battery materials, leading to significant growth in both stainless steel and lithium salt revenues [7][14]. 2. Lithium Sector - The company has secured two major mica lithium mines, achieving complete self-sufficiency in lithium resources. The mining rights for the Huashan mica mine have been expanded, increasing the production capacity from 3 million tons/year to 9 million tons/year, enhancing resource security [7][47][51]. - The current lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 30,000 tons, with plans for expansion as mining and processing projects are completed. The production cost of lithium carbonate is projected to be significantly lower than industry averages, with a forecasted cost of 47,000 RMB/ton in 2024 [7][52][53]. - The lithium market is expected to experience a bottoming phase in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 as supply-demand dynamics shift. The average selling prices for lithium products are projected to be 66,000 RMB/ton in 2025, increasing to 71,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [7][58]. 3. Special Steel Sector - The company is a leading player in the stainless steel long products market, with stable production and sales volumes around 300,000 tons annually. The gross profit per ton of stainless steel has increased from 1,961 RMB/ton in 2021 to 2,809 RMB/ton in 2023, reflecting improved product mix and market positioning [7][35][39]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 890 million RMB, 1.23 billion RMB, and 1.64 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -14.3%, +37.1%, and +34.0%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 10 for the same years [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, 52 companies from the Beijing Stock Exchange entered the top ten holdings of various funds, with a total public fund market value of 6.743 billion yuan [3][8][12] - The top three companies by fund holdings are Jinbo Biological, Tongli Co., and Kait Co., with Jinbo Biological being the most held by 51 funds [3][17] - The North Exchange 50 Index fund size increased to 9.3 billion yuan, reflecting a growing interest in the North Exchange market [3][21] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, 69 out of 103 companies reported positive revenue growth, with 24 companies exceeding 25% growth [3][22] - The average return of 11 active theme funds on the North Exchange was around 24%, outperforming the North Exchange 50 Index's 22% return [12][15] - Seven companies entered the top ten holdings of active theme funds for the first time, including Deyuan Pharmaceutical and Longhong Technology [19][22] Group 3 - The overall PE ratio of the North Exchange A-shares decreased to 45X, indicating a potential valuation adjustment [4][24] - The average daily trading volume for the North Exchange fell to 30.1 billion yuan, suggesting a cooling market sentiment [4][25] - The market is expected to continue its consolidation phase, with opportunities arising post the financial report disclosures [3][4] Group 4 - The report highlights a preference for companies with low valuations and significant growth potential, such as Minshida and Lintai New Materials [3][8] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors like high-end manufacturing, infrastructure, and specialty consumer goods [3][8][19] - The report emphasizes the alignment of the North Exchange's "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" positioning with national policies on self-reliance and innovation-driven development [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for continuous efforts to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, with a focus on implementing a comprehensive debt policy for local governments and accelerating the resolution of overdue payments to enterprises [6] - The report highlights the acceleration of urban renewal initiatives and the optimization of existing housing acquisition policies, indicating a significant expansion in the scope of urban renewal projects [6] - The report notes the clear objectives of stabilizing the real estate market and capital markets, with expectations for further supportive policies if market conditions weaken [6] - There is a strong emphasis on increasing the supply of high-quality housing, with the potential for significant growth in this new development track [6] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Housing Policies - The report discusses the government's commitment to urban renewal, particularly in transforming urban villages and dilapidated housing, with expectations for accelerated progress in these areas [6] - It mentions the government's intention to provide local governments with greater autonomy regarding the acquisition of existing housing, which is expected to lead to more flexible compensation methods [6] Market Stability and Future Policies - The report indicates that the central government has consistently emphasized the importance of maintaining stability in the real estate market since September 2024, with a focus on timely implementation of policies to support employment and economic stability [6] - It anticipates that if real estate market indicators continue to decline, additional supportive measures will be introduced [6] High-Quality Housing Supply - The report highlights the government's push for the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, indicating a shift in market demand towards high-quality housing [6] - It suggests that the current housing demand is at a low point, but the structural demand is diversifying, creating opportunities for companies that can deliver high-quality housing [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality, such as Binjiang Group, Jianfa Co., and Greentown China [6] - It also suggests monitoring second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies as potential investment opportunities [6]