Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The overall performance of the company is stable as expected, with a financial cost reduction exceeding market expectations [5] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.496 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.28% [8] - The company achieved a total power generation of approximately 295.904 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.11% [8] - Financial expenses decreased by 1.425 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing market expectations, while investment income grew steadily [8] - The company announced a record high dividend amount, maintaining a payout ratio of 71% [8] - The report emphasizes the long-term investment value of hydropower, highlighting its stability and low correlation with market volatility [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 78.112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 50.04% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 34.169 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.15% [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.40 yuan [7] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 15.29% [7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 21.02 [7]

证券研究报告 建筑材料 | 装修建材 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 东方雨虹(002271.SZ) 投资评级： 增持（维持） ——业绩仍在承压，静待底部出现 投资要点： 风险提示：新开工增速大幅下滑、基建增速低于预期、沥青价格大幅上行 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 32,823 | 28,056 | 26,714 | 27,955 | 30,841 | | 同比增长率（%） | 5.15% | -14.52% | -4.78% | 4.64 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's aircraft business is experiencing strong growth, and the consolidation of CAL enhances its leading position in the market [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 171.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.7 billion yuan, up 72.2% year-on-year [7] - The company sold 34 aircraft in Q1 2025, an increase of 25 aircraft compared to the previous year, contributing approximately 7.8 billion yuan to revenue [7] - The acquisition of CAL, which has a fleet of 106 aircraft and 10 aircraft orders, is expected to further enhance the company's asset quality and revenue [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 33.675 billion yuan in 2023 to 47.621 billion yuan in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.91% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1.281 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.913 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 111.58% in 2025 [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 2.87% in 2024 to 5.73% in 2025 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.32 in 2024 to 9.60 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [6]

查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | | | | 年 | | 07 日 | 05 | | | 2025 | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 15.17 | | | | | | | | | 年 最 | / | 最 | 高 | | | | | | 内 | | | 一 | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 121,428.18 | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | | 113,079.91 | | | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 | 固收点评报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 07 日 降准降息落地，债市利好或出尽 ——5 月 7 日金融监管国新办新闻发布会点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 2：2025 年初以来同业存单利率走势 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 图表 1：2025 年初以来，DR001 及 DR007 利率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 图表 3：各期限国债收益率走势（%） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD、华源证券研究所 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：5 月 7 日国新办新闻发布会上监管推出一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。 联系人 降准降息落地。为落实 4 月下旬政治局会议部署，应对高关税对经济的潜在冲击，5 月 7 日金融监管层在国新办新闻发布会上推出了一揽子金融政策，将助力经济稳增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's copper business has significantly increased, contributing to substantial growth in performance [5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.942 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.584 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 53.59% [7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.811 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 42.49%, and a net profit of 422 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.1% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023: Revenue of 7.399 billion RMB, net profit of 1.031 billion RMB - 2024: Revenue of 9.942 billion RMB, net profit of 1.584 billion RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 12.276 billion RMB, net profit of 2.108 billion RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 13.290 billion RMB, net profit of 2.425 billion RMB - 2027E: Revenue of 13.647 billion RMB, net profit of 2.640 billion RMB [6][8] - The company expects a net profit growth rate of 33.09% for 2025, 15.06% for 2026, and 8.84% for 2027 [7][8] Market Performance - The copper business saw a sales volume increase of 383% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 49,200 tons [7] - The company plans to sell 78,900 tons of copper in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60% [7] - The mining service business revenue was stable, with a slight decline in unit gross profit [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the national large-scale grain storage construction and equipment updates, indicating a solid growth potential in the coming years [6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.652 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.84%, with a net profit of 234 million yuan, up 7.34% year-on-year [6] - The company is a leader in the domestic grain storage sector, with a forecasted net profit of 282 million yuan for 2025, 358 million yuan for 2026, and 441 million yuan for 2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20, 16, and 13 times respectively [6][7] Financial Summary - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5,578.67 million yuan, with a closing price of 10.89 yuan per share [3] - The company's revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.234 billion yuan, 3.975 billion yuan, and 4.916 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.95%, 22.89%, and 23.69% [5][7] - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 25.49%, with a slight decrease expected in subsequent years [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the large energy sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stable performance of hydropower, the negative impact of wind conditions on short-term performance, and the differentiation in thermal power profitability [6][31][37] Hydropower Summary - Hydropower performance is expected to be stable with improved rainfall in 2024, contributing to an increase in electricity generation in Q1 2025. The national rainfall is projected to be 9% above normal, with hydropower utilization hours increasing by 6.9% year-on-year [20][21] - Major hydropower companies are expected to see performance align with expectations, with notable growth in Q1 2025 for companies like Changjiang Power and Huaneng Hydropower [25][26] - The report highlights the importance of local hydropower pricing advantages and the stability of the business model and policy environment as key factors for investment [28][29] Renewable Energy Summary - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are impacted by falling electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [31][36] - The report suggests focusing on long-term value in wind power operators despite current challenges, as the market is expected to favor those with sustainable development returns [36][37] Thermal Power Summary - The thermal power sector is experiencing improved profitability due to declining coal prices, although there is significant regional differentiation in performance [37] - The report notes that while northern thermal power operators are seeing better performance, regions like Guangdong are facing challenges due to market price declines [8][37] Investment Recommendations - The report provides three stock selection strategies: focusing on state-owned enterprises undergoing asset integration, selecting resilient hydropower assets, and identifying undervalued wind power operators [9][11] - Key recommended stocks include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuan Investment Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Wan Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The default risk of AVIC Industry - Finance bonds is relatively small, and the valuation anomaly may be mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand due to the company's delisting. The company has strong solvency and willingness to repay debts [4][29]. - After the bond resumed trading on April 24, 2025, except for the significant increase in yields on the first day due to investors' concentrated selling for risk - aversion, the yield fluctuations slowed down from April 25 to April 30, indicating that the adjustment may have been in place. It is advisable to pay attention to the valuation repair space after the short - term over - decline [4][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 AVIC Industry - Finance Delisting Event Timeline - On March 27, 2025, due to AVIC Industry - Finance's controlling shareholder planning major issues, the company's stocks and bonds were suspended from trading starting March 28. - On March 28, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance announced the termination of its stock listing through a shareholders' meeting resolution and offered a cash option of 3.54 yuan per share to dissenting shareholders (not exceeding 4.304 billion shares). - On April 23, 2025, the proposal for bond delisting was not passed, and the company's exchange - traded bonds resumed trading on April 24 [3][5]. 3.2 Company Overview of AVIC Industry - Finance - **Equity Structure**: As of March 29, 2025, AVIC Industry - Finance had a total share capital of 8.821 billion shares. AVIC held 39.89% of the shares directly and controlled 11.13% indirectly through its subsidiaries. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council was the actual controller [8]. - **Main Business**: AVIC Industry - Finance is an industrial investment and financial service platform of AVIC, engaging in businesses such as financial leasing, trust, securities, and futures through its subsidiaries [11]. - **Financial Status**: According to the 2024 annual performance forecast, AVIC Industry - Finance's net profit attributable to the parent company was - 0.48 billion yuan, and the non - recurring profit and loss net profit attributable to the parent company was - 1.89 billion yuan, the first negative in nearly 17 years. The company's operating performance was affected by business transformation and the macro - economic situation [12]. 3.3 Reasons for AVIC Industry - Finance's Delisting - The continuous decline in AVIC Industry - Finance's performance in recent years, especially the significant drag of the trust business on the overall performance, may be the main reason for its delisting. From 2021 to 2023, the company's total operating income decreased by 11.2%, and the trust business income decreased by 55.4% [3][15]. - AVIC Trust, responsible for the trust business, was affected by the real - estate industry adjustment, with its performance shrinking significantly. Some underlying assets of its real - estate - related trust projects defaulted. The company may hope to delist its stocks and convert standard bonds to "non - standard" to reduce information disclosure and avoid negative public opinion, thus gaining more space for risk disposal [3][16][20]. 3.4 Bond Market Performance of AVIC Industry - Finance - **Bond Balance**: As of April 30, 2025, the balance of AVIC Industry - Finance's domestic bonds was 27.27 billion yuan, and the cumulative overseas debt was 700 million US dollars [21]. - **Yield Performance**: Since the company announced its voluntary delisting on March 28, 2025, except for "24 AVIC Industry - Finance SCP006", the ChinaBond行权 valuations of other domestic debts have increased by more than 100BP, with "23 Industry - Finance 05" having the largest spread of 386BP [3][22]. - **Maturity Distribution**: The maturity and put - back amounts in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 were relatively large, at 5 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan respectively, and the scale decreased in Q4 of 2025 and later. There is no situation where the company faces significant debt - repayment pressure due to concentrated bond redemptions [2][22]. - **Trading Situation**: From April 24 to April 30, 2025, except for one transaction of "22 Industry - Finance 03" at a premium (the maximum weighted trading price was 100.14 yuan per bond), the rest were traded at a discount, and bonds with longer remaining terms generally had a higher discount ratio [2][24]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - **Solvency**: As of September 30, 2024, AVIC Industry - Finance's cash and cash equivalents on a consolidated basis were 51.6 billion yuan, and the balance of readily realizable trading financial assets was 55.9 billion yuan. As of the end of 2023, the company and its subsidiaries had a credit line of 338.1 billion yuan from major loan banks, with 230 billion yuan unused [29]. - **Willingness to Repay Debts**: AVIC Industry - Finance has the credit endorsement of a central enterprise. After announcing its delisting, the company actively organized on - site communication meetings with bondholders and declared in multiple announcements that it would ensure bond repayment on schedule, and has no credit default record in the public market [29].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 06 日 社融增速有望大幅回升 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据预测 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 核心预判：依据过往信贷投放规律及行业观察等，我们预测 2025 年 4 月新增贷款 8000 亿元，社融 1.5 万亿元。4 月末，M2 达 323.5 万亿，YoY+7.4%；M1（新口径）YoY +2.1%； 社融增速 8.8%。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 4 月新增贷款或同比略微多增。4 月下旬，1M 转贴现利率小幅走高，反映当月信贷 投放情况较好。我们预计 4 月新增贷款 8000 亿，同比多增；个贷增量-1000 亿，对 公信贷增量 7000 亿，非银同业贷款+2000 亿。存量按揭利率低及股市平稳缓解提前 还贷压力，一二线城市二手房成交活跃，按揭贷款需求阶段性好转。我们预计 4 月 个贷短期-2000 亿，个贷中长期+1000 亿。4 月对公短贷-2000 亿，对公中长期+4500 亿，票据融资+45 ...