Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in October and predicts that the domestic policy rate may be cut by 10 - 20BP in Q4 [4][13][92] Report's Core View - The consumption volume increased while the price rose slowly during the National Day holiday, and the per - capita data was under pressure, indicating a relatively low domestic consumption willingness and a continuous consumption downgrade trend. The external environment is disturbed, with rising policy risks and uncertainties [2][10][11] - The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is fully bullish on the bond market, with the preferred investments being 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [4][13][92] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in 2025, the number of domestic tourist trips reached 890 million, an increase of 120 million compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024. The total domestic tourism consumption was 809.01 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase. The per - capita consumption decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 911 yuan. The number of inbound and outbound trips of mainland residents was 9.165 million, a 9.6% increase [14] - On October 1, 2025 (EDT), the U.S. federal government announced a "shutdown". On October 10 (EDT), Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting from November 1, 2025. As of October 11 (09:30 Beijing time), the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October reached 98.3% [21] - In September 2025, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was 49.1% (continuing in the contraction range, up 0.4pct from the previous month), and the service PMI dropped to the critical point of 50.0% (down 2.0pct from the previous month) [21] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of September 30, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 42.8% and 57.3% year - on - year respectively. The total box office during the National Day in 2025 was 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 900 million and 270 million yuan compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively. As of September 26, the total retail volume and sales of three major household appliances decreased by 16.9% and 27.6% year - on - year respectively [22][24] 2.2 Transportation - As of October 5, the weekly container throughput of ports increased by 12.0% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 12.4% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 9.7% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days decreased by 7.4% year - on - year [28][36][39] 2.3开工率 - As of October 9, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 2.2pct year - on - year, the asphalt average operating rate increased by 3.0pct year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 2.9pct year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 2.2pct year - on - year. As of October 11, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 75.1% [44][47] 2.4 Real Estate - As of October 10, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 34.7% year - on - year. As of October 3, the second - hand housing transaction area of 9 sample cities increased by 104.2% year - on - year [51][54] 2.5 Prices - As of October 11, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.1% year - on - year, the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.0% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. As of October 10, the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 14.6% year - on - year, the average spot price of rebar decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the average spot price of iron ore decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [58][60][66] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On October 11, overnight Shibor and various short - term interest rates generally declined. Most treasury bond yields declined, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bond yields at 1.37%/1.58%/1.82%/2.23% respectively, down 1.2BP/4.3BP/5.6BP/up 1.5BP compared to September 28. The yields of China Development Bank bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit also showed certain changes. As of October 10, the ten - year treasury bond yields of the U.S., Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.7%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, down 15BP/up 3BP/down 7BP/down 7BP compared to September 26. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB on October 10 decreased by 70/21 pips compared to September 25 [69][73][80] 4. Institutional Behavior - As of October 10, the estimated median durations of medium - and long - term interest rate and credit bond funds were about 4.5 years and 2.6 years respectively, down about 0.03 years and 0.3 years compared to September 26 [4][86][87] 5. Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks will reach 1.9% [4][13][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current data asset ABS has three models: "data - pledged loan", "accounts receivable/financial leasing + data pledge", and "data - empowered pricing". Policy support has been provided for the value transformation path from data "resources" to "assets" and then to "capital", but there are still pain points in the development of data asset ABS. Some data asset ABS products have investment value due to their asset pool quality, credit - enhancement measures, and yield advantages [2][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Models of Data Asset ABS - As of September 22, 2025, 7 data asset ABS have been issued in China, with a total scale of 2.49 billion yuan. Six of the issuers are state - owned enterprises, and only one is a private enterprise. The three models are: "data - pledged loan" (e.g., "Data 1 Phase"), "accounts receivable/financial leasing + data pledge" (e.g., "Rugao 01" and "Liantou 3 Phase"), and "data - empowered pricing" (e.g., "Zhongtoubao 2 Phase" and "Jiangong Project") [2][3][5] - The first approved data asset labeled product is the "Huaxin - Xinxin - Data Asset 1 - 5 Phase Asset - Backed Special Plan", with a total shelf scale of 500 million yuan. The first successfully established data asset ABS product is the "Ping'an - Rugao Phase 1 Asset - Backed Special Plan (Data Asset)", with a scale of 130 million yuan and a coupon rate as low as 2.4% [4] 3.2 Policy Support for Value Transformation - Policies such as the "Data Twenty Articles" in December 2022, the "Interim Provisions on the Accounting Treatment of Enterprise Data Resources" in August 2023, and the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Data Asset Management" in December 2023 have provided support for the value transformation from data "resources" to "assets" and then to "capital" [2][12] - However, the development of data asset ABS still faces pain points, including inconsistent data confirmation and registration standards, the lack of a perfect valuation system, and increasing data security and compliance risks [2][13] 3.3 Investment Value Analysis of Data Asset ABS - In terms of asset pool quality, "Zhongtoubao 2A/2C" and "25 Jiangong You/Ci" have excellent asset pools. "Data 1 You/Ci" is in the middle. "Rugao 01 You/Ci" and "25 Yihang You/Ci" have creditworthy but concentrated debtors. "Liantou 3 You/Ci" and "25 Xingzu 01/Ci" have relatively weak asset pools [16] - Regarding credit - enhancement measures, "25 Jiangong You/Ci" and "Rugao 01 You/Ci" have high credit - enhancement effectiveness. "Liantou 3 You/Ci" has a 100% data asset pledge but depends on the quality of underlying leasing assets. "Zhongtoubao 2A/2C" has traditional credit - enhancement methods [17] - Some data asset ABS have higher yields than other bonds of the same credit subject, same rating, and similar maturity due to structural complexity and liquidity premium. For example, on September 24, 2025, the yield of "Data 1 You" was about 11bp higher than that of "Meixin 3A" [2][19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.9% from 2025 to 2030 [3][13]. Core Insights - The潮玩 industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales increasing from 20.7 billion RMB in 2019 to 58.7 billion RMB in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 23.2% [13][18]. - The market is expected to grow from 82.5 billion RMB in 2025 to 213.3 billion RMB by 2030, driven by consumer demand for emotional and cultural connections through products [13][18]. - Key growth segments include搪胶毛绒 (rubber plush toys) and手办 (figurines), with market shares projected to rise significantly by 2030 [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Offline Exhibitions Enhance Brand Exposure - The Wonder Festival 2025 showcased over 400 exhibitors and attracted more than 120,000 attendees, highlighting the growing consumer interest in潮玩 [6][9]. - Upcoming exhibitions like the CTE China Toy and潮玩展 are expected to gather over 2,500 exhibitors and 5,400 brands, further promoting the潮玩 industry [9][10]. 2. Market Growth and Projections - The潮玩 industry is projected to reach a retail value of 58.7 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations of continued growth at a CAGR of 20.9% through 2030 [3][13]. - The market is characterized by a relatively fragmented structure, with the top five retailers holding a combined market share of 20.7% [18][19]. 3. Company Developments - The report highlights柏星龙's establishment of龙衍文创 to explore consumer-facing cultural products, with plans to launch innovative products like the second-generation "独眼星球" plush toy in late 2025 [25][26]. - The company is focusing on product-driven sales strategies rather than heavy marketing expenditures, indicating a shift towards leveraging product quality and consumer engagement [25][26]. 4. Market Valuation Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the broader consumer sector on the北交所 has decreased from 57.2X to 56.2X, reflecting market adjustments [40][41]. - The total market capitalization of consumer service companies on the北交所 has seen a decline, indicating potential volatility in the sector [34][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from September 28 to October 11), the yield of most credit bonds declined, and the credit spread fluctuated slightly. The issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds decreased. The net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 16.1 billion yuan. The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds and AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose [1][2]. - Looking forward to October, the logic of loose liquidity persists, but institutional behavior and policy may restrict the performance of the credit bond market. Before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules, the credit allocation strategy should not be too radical. However, the resurgence of Sino - US trade friction may reduce market risk appetite and support the short - term credit long - making logic. It is recommended to allocate short - term bonds as the bottom position, increase the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds, and use bond repurchase to increase leverage to enhance portfolio returns [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was - 112.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 269.9 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance volume was 131.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 459.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 243.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 189.9 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased [9]. - **Issuance Cost**: The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds returned above 3%, and the issuance rates of AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose above 2%. The increase was mainly due to the high - interest issuance of some bonds [16]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 50.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The turnover rate of most bond types decreased, except for industrial bonds which remained unchanged [17]. - **Yield**: The yields of most credit bonds with different ratings and maturities declined, with the short - end decline greater than the medium - and long - end. By bond type, taking AA+ 5 - year bonds as an example, the yield of urban investment bonds rose, while the yields of other bond types declined [22][23]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spread of AA commercial trade industry widened significantly, while the credit spreads of AA+ electronics and textile and clothing industries compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 3BP. For urban investment bonds, the short - end spread compressed and the long - end spread widened. For industrial bonds, the short - end spread compressed slightly, and the spreads of other maturities widened. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds with maturities below 5 years compressed, while the 10 - year credit spread widened [2][6][24]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - Six entities had a total of 10 bond implicit ratings downgraded, including Suning.com Group Co., Ltd., Ruikang Pharmaceutical (Shandong) Co., Ltd., etc. The bond "H1 Lvjing 01" issued by Zhengxinglong Real Estate (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. was extended, and the bond "15 Tianan Property Insurance" issued by Tianan Property Insurance Co., Ltd. defaulted [2][36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 133.04 billion yuan this week. The overnight capital rate remained low. It is recommended to be cautious in credit allocation before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules and adopt a strategy of short - end sinking as the bottom position and increasing the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region was celebrated, showcasing significant economic achievements. Since its establishment in 1955, Xinjiang's GDP has grown from 1.231 billion to 2.05 trillion in 2024, an increase of over 200 times. The fixed asset investment growth rate in Xinjiang has significantly outpaced the national average, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in the first eight months of 2025, compared to the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - Transportation infrastructure investment in Xinjiang is experiencing high growth, with plans to complete 80 billion yuan in road traffic investment in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. Key projects include the Urumqi-Weili Highway and the new Tibet Railway, which is expected to start construction in November 2025 [3][12] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is accelerating, with total investment in ongoing and planned projects exceeding 625.5 billion yuan. This includes significant investments in coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects, indicating a complete industrial chain development [4][18] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - Xinjiang's fixed asset investment growth is robust, with a 9.1% increase year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025, significantly higher than the national average of 0.5% [2][9] - The region's GDP has seen exponential growth, highlighting its economic resilience and investment potential [2][9] 2. Transportation Infrastructure - Xinjiang plans to invest approximately 80 billion yuan in road construction in 2025, with a focus on major projects to enhance connectivity [3][11] - The new Tibet Railway project is set to begin construction in November 2025, with an estimated total investment of 300-350 billion yuan [12][13] 3. Coal Chemical Industry - The total investment in coal chemical projects in Xinjiang exceeds 625.5 billion yuan, with significant contributions from coal-to-olefins and coal-to-natural gas projects [4][18] - The coal chemical sector is expected to form a complete industrial chain, enhancing energy supply and industrial upgrading [4][18] 4. Market Performance - The construction decoration index rose by 2.84% this week, with significant gains in infrastructure and chemical engineering sectors [6][25] - Notable stock performances include Xinjiang Jiaojian (+20.97%) and Beixin Road and Bridge (+13.71%) [6][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector is resilient, and the "anti-involution" trend is driving up express delivery prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies. Long-term positive competition opportunities are expected in the e-commerce express delivery sector. Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are likely to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for both performance and valuation increases [13] - In the shipping sector, the outlook for crude oil transportation is favorable due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may enhance VLCC freight rate elasticity. The shipping market is expected to improve significantly in Q4 2025, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [13] - The shipbuilding sector is in the early stages of a green renewal cycle, with shipping market conditions and green renewal progress being the core demand drivers. Despite a decline in new ship orders, shipyards remain busy. Factors constraining new ship market activities are expected to ease or improve, suggesting a potential profit realization period for shipbuilding companies [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant increase in business volume, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3% in the number of packages delivered [24] - Major companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing strong growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a remarkable 34.8% year-on-year increase [26] Shipping - The current week saw a slight increase in the Clarkson comprehensive freight rate to $28,977 per day, while the BDI index decreased by 4.3% to 1,941 points [44] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) decreased by 2.5% to 1,084 points, indicating a slight downturn in the market [44] Aviation - In August 2025, global air passenger demand grew by 4.6%, with a load factor of 86.0%, marking a historical high for the month [10] - The overall passenger transport volume for civil aviation reached approximately 75 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [55] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing a positive trend, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics showing significant improvements in profitability due to strategic transformations and ecosystem optimizations [15] Ports - The total cargo throughput at Chinese ports reached 272.175 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.69% [71] - Container throughput also saw an increase of 8.84%, indicating a robust performance in the port sector [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "14th Five-Year" Energy Planning Management Measures emphasizes compliance and economic viability in energy projects, with stricter controls on project inclusion in energy planning [2][7] - The new measures aim to enhance the systematic, authoritative, scientific, and adaptive nature of energy planning, with a focus on mid-term and summary evaluations [7][9] - The market sentiment towards new energy development has been pessimistic due to the negative impact of market transactions on investment returns, but the 2035 development goals announced by President Xi Jinping have provided reassurance [3][10] - The government is addressing irrational competition in the energy sector, particularly in coal and photovoltaic industries, to stabilize prices and promote the exit of inefficient capacities [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Energy Planning Management Measures - The new management measures replace the previous version and are effective for five years, focusing on high-quality energy development [7] - The measures restrict provincial energy planning from including projects not approved at the national level, ensuring a more rigorous planning process [8][9] 2. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stocks with third-quarter performance catalysts, highlighting long-term investments in quality hydropower and undervalued wind power companies [12][13] - Short to medium-term recommendations include companies with strong asset quality and management capabilities, as well as regional stocks with lower downside risk [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions in Indonesia have driven tin prices higher, while the rare earth industry has introduced export control announcements [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation timeline for total rare earth control, quotas, and overseas rare earth industry catalysts [3] - The report suggests that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is in a high prosperity phase, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [6] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 0.89% decrease in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 557,500 CNY/ton, a 0.62% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.35% decrease in terbium oxide to 7,025,000 CNY/ton [12][11] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on certain rare earth items and technologies, targeting illegal export behaviors [3][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have decreased by 1.13% to 4,375 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices have decreased by 0.90% to 276,000 CNY/ton [23][11] - Demand for molybdenum iron is increasing due to steel procurement, but there are signs of supply contraction [3] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have decreased by 0.74% to 268,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices have decreased by 0.89% to 391,500 CNY/ton [28][11] - The report notes stable domestic demand with a focus on essential purchases [3] Tin - SHFE tin prices have increased by 4.48% to 286,400 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices have increased by 5.95% to 36,500 USD/ton [33][11] - Supply is tight due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises, while demand remains cautious [3] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 2.90% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices have decreased by 1.97% to 149,500 CNY/ton [42][11] - The report anticipates a potential recovery in export demand starting in October [3] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing continuous technological breakthroughs and commercial project implementations, indicating a high growth phase for upstream materials [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has fully entered the "920 new code" era, which is expected to further solidify its independent status as China's third-largest stock exchange [3][8] - The transition to the 920 code is seen as a significant milestone in the development of the BSE, addressing the confusion caused by multiple existing code segments and enhancing stock identification [3][8] - The report emphasizes the ongoing implementation of the "Deep Reform 19 Articles" strategy, indicating continuous policy support for the high-quality development of the BSE, with expectations for new products like specialized index funds and ETFs [3][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the BSE's market may experience short-term volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies and overall market conditions, but it encourages a focus on long-term investment opportunities [3][12] - It identifies several key investment themes, including companies with stable long-term performance, those with upcoming quarterly reports, and sectors related to self-sufficiency and domestic consumption [3][12][29] - The report mentions that the overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for BSE A-shares remains at 50X, with daily trading volume recovering to 193 billion [14][15] Group 3 - The report states that one new company, Aomeisen, was listed on the BSE during the week, bringing the total number of new listings since January 1, 2024, to 39 [22][23] - It highlights the average issuance PE ratio of 13.95X for the newly listed companies, with an average first-day price fluctuation of 243% [26][29] - The report also notes the registration status of one company and the submission of registration for another, indicating ongoing activity in the IPO pipeline [29][30]