交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 28 日 今日焦点 | 瑞浦兰钧 | | 666 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 规模效应下毛利率提升，动力电池业务增速强 | | 评级: 买入↑ | | 劲；上调至买入评级 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 10.56 | 目标价: 港元 14.25 | 潜在涨幅: +35.0% | | 李柳晓, PhD, CFA | joyce.li@bocomgroup.com | | 2024 年瑞浦兰钧收入 178.0 亿元，同比+29.4%，其中动力电池/储能电池 收入 73.8 亿/72.6 亿元，同比+71.4%/+3.9%。盈利能力方面，2024 年公 司整体毛利率提升 1.6 个百分点至 4.1%，净亏损同比缩减 21%至 11.6 亿 元。 2025 年 1 月，公司发布公告将于印度尼西亚投资建设电池厂，公司预计 一期投产后可年产 8GWh 动力与储能电池及系统以及电池组件。 上调至买入评级。我们预计 2025-27 年归母净亏损为 11.2 亿/7.1 亿/1.5 亿元。基于 DCF 模型，维持目标价 14.25 港元，当前股价较目标价 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (135 HK), with a target price of HKD 9.02, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][14]. Core Insights - The company has set an ambitious retail gas growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and an increase in commercial users [2][7]. - The financial outlook shows a slight decrease in core profit expectations for 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from the LNG/upstream segment [7]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with over RMB 20 billion in net cash by the end of 2024, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025 [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 177,354 million in 2023 to RMB 200,497 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,682 million in 2023 to RMB 6,948 million in 2025, with a corresponding EPS growth from RMB 0.71 to RMB 0.80 [3][15]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.3 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2025, indicating potential valuation upside [3][15]. Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 152,090 million in 2024, with a slight decline in tax profit forecasted for this segment [9][11]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to see a modest increase in revenue, while the exploration and production segment is expected to decline significantly [9][11]. - Overall, the company anticipates a tax profit growth of 16.4% in 2025, driven by improved performance in the natural gas and LNG segments [11][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to rise from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 35.5 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.3% [10]. - The LNG plant processing volume is projected to increase from 2.83 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 3.80 billion cubic meters in 2025, with a utilization rate of 68.5% [10]. - The gross margin for gas sales is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.47 per cubic meter through 2025, despite potential discounts for commercial users [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][21]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see stable growth in clean energy products, with significant contributions from hydrogen projects anticipated to increase profitability [2][6]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 8.12, reflecting a potential upside of 15.8% from the current closing price of HKD 7.01 [1][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 23,626 million - 2024: RMB 24,756 million (4.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 28,287 million (14.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 31,988 million - 2027E: RMB 36,066 million [5][18]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,114 million - 2024: RMB 1,095 million - 2025E: RMB 1,411 million (28.8% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 1,523 million - 2027E: RMB 1,670 million [5][18]. Segment Performance - The clean energy segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach RMB 20,036 million by 2025, reflecting a 16.6% growth rate [9]. - The chemical equipment segment is forecasted to stabilize, with a projected revenue of RMB 3,354 million in 2025, showing a 7.7% growth [9]. - Liquid food equipment revenue is expected to reach RMB 4,896 million by 2025, with a 10% growth rate [9]. Order Book and Growth - New orders in the clean energy equipment sector are expected to increase by 17% YoY in Q4 2024, with a total of RMB 21,790 million [8]. - The backlog of orders in the clean energy equipment sector is projected to grow by 39.5% YoY, reaching RMB 23,210 million by Q4 2024 [8]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend of HKD 0.3 per share, consistent with previous distributions [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (135 HK), with a target price of HKD 9.02, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current closing price of HKD 7.84 [1][13]. Core Insights - The company aims for an aggressive retail gas growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and an increase in commercial users [2][6]. - The financial outlook shows a slight decrease in core profit expectations for 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from the LNG/upstream segment [6][7]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with over RMB 20 billion in net cash by the end of 2024, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025 [6][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 177,354 million in 2023 to RMB 200,497 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,682 million in 2023 to RMB 6,948 million in 2025, with a corresponding EPS growth from RMB 0.71 to RMB 0.80 [3][14]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.3 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2025, indicating potential valuation improvement [3][14]. Segment Analysis - Natural gas sales are expected to generate revenue of RMB 152,090 million in 2024, with a slight decline in profit margins due to increased competition [8][10]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to see a modest increase in revenue, with processing volumes expected to rise by 7% year-on-year [6][9]. - The exploration and production segment is anticipated to face significant challenges, with a projected revenue drop of 81.2% in 2024 [8][10]. Operational Metrics - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to grow from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 35.5 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.3% [9][10]. - LNG terminal utilization is forecasted to remain stable at 88% in 2025, with processing capacity expected to increase [6][9]. - The gross margin for gas sales is projected to stabilize at RMB 0.47 per cubic meter through 2025, despite competitive pressures [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 8.12, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of HKD 7.01 [2][15][21]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing stable growth in clean energy products, with significant contributions expected from hydrogen projects. The revenue from clean energy is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with hydrogen product revenue expected to reach RMB 1 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 15% [6][9]. - The company maintains a consistent dividend of HKD 0.3 per share, indicating a stable return to shareholders amidst growth initiatives [6]. - The overall revenue for the company is forecasted to increase from RMB 23.626 billion in 2023 to RMB 36.066 billion by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8% [5][18]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 24.756 billion in 2024, RMB 28.287 billion in 2025, RMB 31.988 billion in 2026, and RMB 36.066 billion in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 14.3%, 13.1%, and 12.7% [5][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 1.114 billion in 2023 to RMB 1.670 billion in 2027, with a projected CAGR of approximately 8% [5][18]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.63 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][18]. Order and Backlog Analysis - New orders in the clean energy segment are expected to grow, with a 17% year-on-year increase in new signed orders for Q4 2024 [8]. - The backlog of orders in the clean energy segment is projected to increase significantly, with a 39.5% year-on-year growth expected by Q4 2024 [8]. Segment Performance - The clean energy equipment segment is anticipated to see substantial revenue growth, from RMB 14.907 billion in 2023 to RMB 26.392 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 14.5% [9]. - The chemical equipment segment is expected to stabilize, with revenue projected to recover from RMB 4.414 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.749 billion in 2027 [9].

Group 1: Kunlun Energy - The company aims for an 8% growth in retail gas volume for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and a 18%/21% increase in industrial/commercial users [3][4] - The core profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 3.5% to 6.36 billion HKD, slightly below expectations due to lower-than-expected LNG/upstream segment profits [3][4] - The target price has been adjusted to 9.02 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 15.1% based on a 10.5x P/E ratio for 2025 [3][4] Group 2: CIMC Enric - The company anticipates a 4% growth in core profit for 2024 to 1.34 billion HKD, with clean energy revenue increasing by 15% [5] - The hydrogen production project with Ansteel has shown promising results, contributing 26 million HKD in profit during its initial three months of operation [5] - The target price has been revised to 8.12 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% [5] Group 3: Tencent Holdings - Tencent's evergreen games are projected to contribute 20% of total revenue, with a strong presence in MOBA and shooting genres [12][13] - The company maintains a leading market share of approximately 55% in the domestic market, with overseas growth outpacing the industry average [12][13] - The expected growth in gaming revenue for 2025 is 9%, contributing 30% to total revenue, supported by strong R&D capabilities and a robust game pipeline [12][13] Group 4: Yadea Group - The company expects a revenue of 28.24 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 18.8%, with electric scooter and bicycle sales declining by 20.7% and 21.4% respectively [14][15] - Yadea is strategically focusing on mid-to-high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its product mix to be in this category [14][15] - The target price has been raised to 19.84 HKD, reflecting a favorable outlook for the company in the new regulatory environment [14][15] Group 5: Watson Bio - The company achieved its first commercial profit in 2024, with sales revenue expected to exceed 1 billion RMB in 2025, driven by significant contributions from its key products [8][9] - The AI-enabled mRNA technology platform is expected to enhance the company's pipeline, with several projects progressing rapidly [9] - The target price has been adjusted to 65 HKD, reflecting an optimistic long-term revenue outlook [8][9]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 54.20 | 港元 65.00↑ | +19.9% | | | 云顶新耀 (1952 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年实现商业化层面盈利，耐赋康快速渗透目标市场，上调目标价 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 126 | 707 | 1,689 | 2,819 | 3,908 | | 同比增长 (%) | 884.5 | 461.2 | 138.9 | 66.9 | 38.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | (844) | (1,041) | (264) | 311 | 794 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | (2.80) | (3.24) | (0.81) | 0.96 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 3 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 54.20 | 港元 65.00↑ | +19.9% | | | 云顶新耀 (1952 HK) | | | | | | 2024 年实现商业化层面盈利，耐赋康快速渗透目标市场，上调目标价 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 126 | 707 | 1,689 | 2,819 | 3,908 | | 同比增长 (%) | 884.5 | 461.2 | 138.9 | 66.9 | 38.6 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | (844) | (1,041) | (264) | 311 | 794 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | (2.80) | (3.24) | (0.81) | 0.96 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 583.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.1% from the current price of HKD 502.00 [1][4][31]. Core Insights - Tencent's evergreen games contribute approximately 20% to the total revenue, with a significant focus on MOBA and shooting genres, showing strong overseas growth that outpaces the industry [2][8]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the gaming industry, with a projected 9% revenue growth in 2025, contributing 30% to total revenue [17][22]. - Tencent's market share in the domestic market remains stable at around 55%, while overseas gaming revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2022 to 2024 [22][24]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: RMB 609,015 million - 2024: RMB 660,257 million - 2025E: RMB 713,818 million - 2026E: RMB 767,880 million - 2027E: RMB 818,920 million - The year-on-year growth rates are projected to be 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, and gradually declining to 6.6% by 2027 [3][32]. - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: RMB 157,688 million - 2024: RMB 222,703 million - 2025E: RMB 244,774 million - 2026E: RMB 268,648 million - 2027E: RMB 289,453 million - Earnings per share are projected to increase from RMB 16.33 in 2023 to RMB 31.91 in 2027 [3][32]. Game Performance and Strategy - Tencent's evergreen games are expected to maintain a strong revenue contribution, with 12 to 14 titles projected for 2023/24, generating an estimated RMB 1,300 to 1,400 billion in revenue [8][11]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new games, with over 25 titles in development, many based on popular IPs, which are expected to foster the growth of more evergreen games [11][12]. - The anticipated performance of new titles such as "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" and "Delta Force" is expected to significantly contribute to revenue streams [11][12]. Market Position - Tencent's gaming division is expected to see a revenue increase of 9% in 2025, with domestic and overseas games projected to grow by 8% and 12% respectively [17][22]. - The report highlights the differentiation in game genres among competitors, with Tencent focusing on MOBA and shooting games, while others like NetEase and miHoYo target MMORPG and RPG genres [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 19.84, indicating a potential upside of 32.6% from the current price of HKD 14.96 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - Yadea Group is expected to benefit from the new national standards and the "trade-in" policy, which are anticipated to drive the two-wheeler industry into a new cycle. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 due to inventory destocking and the transition between old and new standards, Yadea is positioned as an industry leader with enhanced technology, channels, and product strength [2][5]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, aiming for over 50% of its sales to come from this segment by 2025. The introduction of sodium-ion battery products is expected to enhance product competitiveness [5][10]. - Yadea's overseas sales are projected to grow significantly, with expectations of exporting 40,000 units in 2025, increasing to 160,000 units by 2027 [5][10]. Financial Summary - For 2024, Yadea's revenue is projected at RMB 28.236 billion, a decrease of 18.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.521 billion, down 51.8% [5][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 37.865 billion, RMB 41.507 billion, and RMB 45.338 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 3.023 billion, RMB 3.518 billion, and RMB 3.967 billion [4][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 15.2% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability [5][10].