Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu (BIDU US) with a target price of 111.00, indicating a potential upside of 8.5% from the closing price of 102.27 [11]. Core Insights - Baidu's Wenxin large model 4.5 and X1 have been released, showcasing significant improvements in multi-modal capabilities and surpassing benchmarks set by GPT 4.5 and DeepSeek-V3 [4][5]. - The daily API call volume for Wenxin large model is projected to reach 1.65 billion by December 2024, a 33-fold increase from 50 million in the same period last year [5]. - The report highlights that Baidu Cloud's revenue is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in 2025, driven by the advancements in large models and the demand for underlying IaaS and MaaS services [5]. Summary by Sections Product Development - Wenxin 4.5 features native multi-modal capabilities, enhancing text, image, audio, and video processing, with improved language understanding, generation, logic, and memory [2]. - Key technological upgrades include FlashMask dynamic attention masks, multi-modal heterogeneous expert expansion, and knowledge-based large-scale data construction [2]. Cost Advantage - The API call pricing for Wenxin 4.5 is significantly lower than that of GPT 4.5, with input costs at 0.004 CNY per 1,000 tokens and output costs at 0.016 CNY per 1,000 tokens, representing less than 1% of GPT 4.5's costs [2][7]. Market Performance - Following the release of Wenxin 4.5 and X1, Baidu's stock price increased by 13% on March 18, 2025, reflecting the market's positive reception of its AI cloud services as a second growth curve [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a global expansion in production and maintain resilient profitability, with a strong dividend payout reflecting confidence in its development [1][4]. - The battery industry is entering a replenishment cycle, and as an industry leader, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4]. - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 align with its performance expectations, with a projected revenue of RMB 362 billion and a net profit of RMB 50.7 billion, representing a 15% year-on-year increase [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 447.2 billion, a 1% increase from previous estimates, with net profit expected to reach RMB 62.9 billion, a 2% increase [3][4]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 25.0% for 2025, down from previous estimates due to accounting policy changes [4][12]. - The company plans to distribute dividends amounting to RMB 253.7 billion in 2024, which is 50% of its net profit, showcasing its strong financial health [4][12]. Production and Market Position - The company is expected to ship a total of 474 GWh of batteries in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage segments [4]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to reach 676 GWh in 2024, with a capacity utilization rate increasing to 76% from 70% in 2023 [4]. - The establishment of a factory in Hungary is anticipated to enhance local supply capabilities in Europe, despite a temporary decline in overseas revenue due to reduced demand [4][5]. Future Projections - The report includes future revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with revenues expected to be RMB 489.2 billion and RMB 526.6 billion, respectively, and net profits projected at RMB 68.0 billion and RMB 71.5 billion [4][12]. - The company’s free cash flow is expected to grow steadily, reaching RMB 82.6 billion by 2027 [5].

Industry Rating - The report assigns a "Leading" investment rating to the internet industry, indicating an expectation of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that consumption policies are driving growth across multiple categories, with a continued positive impact on Q1 performance expected [1][2]. - E-commerce growth is projected to continue, with an estimated GMV growth of 5% for the industry in 2025, driven by expanded subsidy programs and recovery in demand for home appliances [2][12]. - Specific company forecasts include Alibaba's GMV growth of 4%, JD's at 7%, Pinduoduo's at 13%, Kuaishou's at 12%, Douyin's at 25%, and WeChat Video's at 26% for 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - Alibaba (BABA US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 165.0, current price at 141.1, and FY25E EPS of 86.3 [1]. - Pinduoduo (PDD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 144.0, current price at 122.5, and FY25E EPS of 104.4 [1]. - JD (JD US) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 62.0, current price at 43.2, and FY25E EPS of 35.1 [1]. - Kuaishou (1024 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 54.0, current price at 64.9, and FY25E EPS of 5.0 [1]. - The average P/E ratio for the covered companies is projected at 13.4 for FY25E [1]. E-commerce Performance - The adjusted year-on-year growth for physical e-commerce retail sales in January-February 2025 is 5.0%, compared to 3.8% in December 2024 [2][5]. - The expansion of the trade-in subsidy program for mobile phones has led to a 26% increase in communication equipment sales, while home appliances continue to show double-digit growth at 11% [2][6]. - The report notes a 22% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume in January-February 2025, attributed to e-commerce activities during holidays [10][11]. Company Updates - Alibaba's Taotian is focusing on growth through new product incentives and enhanced merchant support, with measures including high exposure traffic and commission rebates [2]. - Kuaishou's e-commerce data shows a 25% year-on-year increase in active merchants and a significant rise in GMV across various categories [2]. - JD's food delivery service has expanded to 126 cities, with over 300,000 restaurant partners, indicating a strong focus on enhancing retail synergy [2].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 18 日 今日焦点 2025 年 1-2 月我国经济延续稳中向好态势。生产端表现强劲，物价水平 温和，而在外部不确定性下，出口增长基本平稳。值得注意的是，两会 释放的积极信号，财政政策持续加力以及近期股市明显回暖所反映的社 会预期改善尚未完全体现在当前经济数据中。 随着"两重"建设加快推进和新质生产力培育力度加大，高技术制造业 和基础设施投资有望保持较快增长，成为拉动投资的主要力量。房地产 方面，各地因城施策政策继续加码，销售市场有望逐步企稳，但考虑到 库存去化和开发商资金压力，投资端复苏或将滞后于销售端。稳就业政 策持续发力、居民收入稳步增长以及消费刺激政策效应逐步释放，预计 消费市场将延续温和复苏态势。特别是通讯电子、家电家居等受益于以 旧换新政策的品类有望保持较快增长，服务消费也将随着供给质量提升 而加速恢复。考虑到居民消费信心恢复，房地产市场调整，经济整体复 苏或将呈现结构性特征，政策支持力度仍期待持续加力。 预计一系列稳增长政策效应逐步显现，经济有望延续稳中向好态势。生 产端方面，制造业转型升级步伐加快，新质生产力培育力度加大，将继 续为经济增长提供强劲 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 银行业 2 月信贷社融数据点评 万丽, CFA, FRM wanli@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5331 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 银行 2025 年 3 月 17 日 考虑到 1 月新增贷款高于市场预期，并创下新高，2 月新增贷款同比少增 主要由于信贷投放更为靠前。2 月新增人民币贷款 1.01 万亿元，同比少增 4400 亿元，新增贷款主要来自企业部门。从居民部门来看，居民短期贷 款净减少 2741 亿元，同比少减 2127 亿元；居民中长期贷款净减少 1150 亿元，同比多减 112 亿元。从企业部门来看，企业短期贷款新增 3300 亿 元，同比少增 2000 亿元；企业中长期贷款新增 5400 亿元，同比少增 7500 亿元；新增企业票据融资 1693 亿元，同比多增 4460 亿元。新增非银机构 贷款 2844 亿元，同比少增 1201 亿元。 新增社融主要来自政府债券。2月新增社融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter automotive gross margin fell below expectations at 19.7%, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitments and promotional activities [2][8]. - Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 25.2% to RMB 3.5 billion, supported by RMB 400 million in interest income [2][8]. - The company faces significant challenges in sales growth, cost control, and market competitiveness, leading to uncertainties in revenue growth and gross margin for 2025 [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 123.85 billion in 2023, RMB 144.46 billion in 2024, and RMB 157.98 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, and 9.4% respectively [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.03 billion in 2024, before slightly increasing to RMB 8.56 billion in 2025 [3][16]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decrease from 22.2% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [17]. Sales and Market Competition - The company anticipates first-quarter sales between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 vehicles, reflecting the impact of recent price cuts [2][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with new entrants in the extended-range vehicle segment, which may affect the company's market share and sales volume [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current closing price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the automotive gross margin for the fourth quarter was below expectations, with a gross margin of 19.7%, which is lower than the market expectation of approximately 20%. This decline is attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitment losses and promotional activities [2][8]. - The company has guided first-quarter sales to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 units, indicating that price reductions have effectively stimulated sales recovery. However, the ASP is expected to continue declining to around RMB 250,000 in the first quarter, which is below expectations [2][8]. Financial Overview - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 123.851 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 144.460 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [3][16]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 11.704 billion, with a significant decline of 673.8% year-on-year. The forecast for 2024 shows a net profit of RMB 8.032 billion, a further decrease of 32.2% [3][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 5.95, dropping to RMB 4.03 in 2024, with a forecasted EPS of RMB 4.29 for 2025 [3][16]. Market Competition and Challenges - The report highlights that the competition in the automotive market is shifting from incremental to stock competition, with more competitors entering the range-extended vehicle segment in 2025. This includes the launch of new models from competitors that may impact the company's sales base [8]. - The report expresses concerns regarding the company's ability to maintain its gross margin, particularly with the introduction of new electric models expected to have lower margins, which could further pressure overall profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6][7]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the most to new business value, accounting for 35% with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have also shown significant growth of 24% and 22%, respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating ongoing growth potential in that market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6][7]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to increase by 7%, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to grow by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6][7]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan announced [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% in 2023 and 3.5% in 2025E [5][13]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 7.0% in 2025E [5][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation over time [5][6]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 今日焦点 | 富途控股 | | | FUTU US | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4 季度盈利超预期，2025 | | 年客户增长指引强劲 | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 | 107.52 | 目标价: 美元 135.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +25.6% | | 万丽, CFA, FRM | | wanli@bocomgroup.com | | 富途 4 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润为 19.52 亿港元，显著高于我们和市场预 期，同比/环比增长 105%/40%，创下单季历史新高。新增付费用户数量 显著超预期，2025 年指引强劲，公司指引 2025 年新增付费用户 80 万 人。4 季度交易金额创历史新高。2025 年 1 季度，尽管美股下跌，但由 于中国资产表现较好，预计交易量在较高基数上仍有望环比增长。财富 管理业务稳步提升。 2025 年 2 月以来，DeepSeek 引发投资者对中国 AI 相关标的的投资热情 和价值重估，港股和中概成交活跃，公司充分受益于这一趋势。我们预 计富途多元化的海外市场和产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Zhongxin Innovation, with target prices indicating potential upside [2][19]. Core Insights - In February 2025, China's power battery installation volume reached 34.9 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 94.1% [5][10]. - The export of batteries from China in February 2025 was 21.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 144.7%, with energy storage batteries accounting for 39.4% of total exports [5][13]. - The report highlights the acceleration of overseas expansion by Chinese cylindrical battery manufacturers and the entry of South Korean companies into the cylindrical battery market [5][10]. - The U.S. has raised the comprehensive tariff rate on Chinese batteries to 48.4%, which is expected to accelerate the overseas production layout of Chinese battery companies [5][10]. - The report anticipates a significant rebound in the Chinese passenger car and power battery market in March 2025, driven by increased promotions and new model releases [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Valuation Overview - Ningde Times (300750 CH) has a target price of 314.11 with a current price of 254.50, indicating a potential upside of 23.4% [2][19]. - Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 CH) has a target price of 56.51 with a current price of 50.49, indicating a potential upside of 11.9% [2][19]. - Guoxuan High-Tech (002074 CH) has a target price of 29.07 with a current price of 23.13, indicating a potential upside of 25.7% [2][19]. - Zhongxin Innovation (3931 HK) has a target price of 15.59 with a current price of 19.38, indicating a potential downside of 19.6% [2][19]. - Ruipu Lanjun (666 HK) is rated as "Neutral" with a target price of 14.25 and a current price of 10.86, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% [2][19]. Market Trends - The report notes a slight decrease in the concentration of power battery installation volume, with CR3 and CR5 market shares at 73.0% and 82.7%, respectively [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the urgent need for advancements in battery energy density and safety due to the rapid industrialization of humanoid robots and eVTOLs, which may accelerate the commercialization of solid-state batteries and large cylindrical batteries [5][10].