宏观经济点评 2025 年 06 月 19 日 美联储内部的降息分歧有所扩大 宏观研究团队 ——6 月 FOMC 会议点评 何宁（分析师） 潘纬桢（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122110044 事件：美联储于北京时间 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点发布 6 月 FOMC 会议声明，宣布保 持利率水平不变。 声明及发布会要点 1. 美联储宣布维持利率水平在 4.25%-4.5%区间。缩表方面，将继续按照 3 月 FOMC 会议上的原定计划执行。 2. 再次维持利率水平不变，但强调不确定性略有减弱。在声明中，美联储的措 辞同 5 月份相比变化不多，即认为美国经济继续稳步扩张，经济前景的不确定性 有所减弱，但仍然居高不下，对应特朗普关税政策波动趋于平缓。总的看，美联 储的态度与 5 月相比并没有发生改变，仍是"边走边看"模式，具体行动还需要 等待关税对美国经济的影响显现出来。 3. 下调经济预测、上调通胀预测，点阵图显示 2025 可能有 50bp 降息。美联储 在此次会议下调 2025-2027 年 ...

非银金融 2025 年 06 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《关注陆家嘴金融论坛表态，港交所 受益于金融开放 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.15 《5 月新开户数延续增长，非银持续受 益于基准回补—行业周报》-2025.6.8 《港交所受益于资产端扩容，券商定 增有松绑迹象—行业周报》-2025.6.2 科创板 IPO 边际宽松，利好券商投行、直投业务 ——行业点评报告 （1）在科创板设置科创成长层，重点服务技术有较大突破、商业前景广阔、持 续研发投入大，但目前仍处于未盈利阶段的科技型企业。设置科创成长层后，现 有和新注册的未盈利科技型上市公司将全部纳入其中。（2）设置成长层的影响： 一是有利于进一步彰显资本市场支持科技创新的政策导向，稳定市场预期；二是 有利于为增量制度改革提供更可控的"试验空间"，可以试点一些更具包容性的 政策举措；三是有利于对未盈利科技型企业集中管理，便于投资者更好识别风险， 更好保护投资者合法权 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program reached approximately 42% in May, indicating a significant impact on consumer spending [3][4] - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [24][25] - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate of 5.8% year-on-year in May, although the supply-demand structure remains suboptimal [5] Industry Insights Chemical Industry - Polyester bottle chip factories have announced production cuts of about 20%, which may lead to a recovery in processing margins [18][19] - The average operating load of domestic polyester bottle chip facilities is expected to decline from 94.3% in May to around 77% due to these production adjustments [19][21] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in consumer demand, with retail sales growth in May exceeding expectations [24][25] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, while the snack sector shows strong growth potential due to channel innovation and product diversification [28] Electric Power Equipment and New Energy - The European electric vehicle market is experiencing a recovery, with May sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 36.2% year-on-year [40][42] - The Chinese low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with significant government support and new projects being signed, indicating potential growth in this sector [30][33] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The USDA has raised global production estimates for corn, rice, and wheat, while maintaining soybean production forecasts, reflecting a positive outlook for agricultural commodities [35][36][37][38] Banking Sector - The banking sector is cautiously optimistic about retail risks, with the transition period for new regulations approaching, which may impact asset quality [46][47] - The overall non-performing loan ratio remains stable, but there are concerns about rising risks in small and micro enterprises and retail businesses [46][48]

Group 1 - The current Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation characterized by "pressure on total volume and structural differentiation," with traditional consumption upgrading and emerging sectors expanding rapidly [2][10] - The emotional characteristics of consumers are becoming more pronounced, with a tendency to seek psychological compensation and cultural resonance through consumption [2][10] - The transformation path of Chinese consumption is highly similar to Japan's "fourth consumption era," which began around 2005, driven by economic, demographic, and psychological factors [2][10] Group 2 - Japan's "fourth consumption era" is marked by a shift from ownership to shared and experiential consumption, emphasizing individual value realization and social connections [3][11] - The transition in Japan is driven by three structural variables: long-term economic stagnation, demographic changes, and shifts in consumer psychology [19][22] - The consumption focus in Japan has shifted from material goods to services and experiences, leading to a restructuring of the industrial landscape [28][30] Group 3 - The concept of Delta G (marginal change in profit growth) is proposed as a key indicator for identifying structural opportunities in the consumer sector [4][44] - The report identifies three investment themes based on Delta G: sectors with improving economic forecasts, those with significant upward revisions in profit predictions, and those with relatively small downward adjustments [4][44] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include personal care products, food processing, and internet e-commerce, among others [4][44][50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural identity and local values in shaping consumer behavior, suggesting that brands should leverage local cultural narratives to enhance differentiation [43][40] - The rise of the "silver economy" and "single economy" in Japan provides insights for China to develop related industries, such as elder care services and single-person living solutions [39][40] - Sustainable consumption is becoming a strategic necessity for long-term business success, with companies encouraged to integrate environmental considerations throughout the product lifecycle [40][41]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "百元转股溢价率" (Premium Rate per 100 Yuan Conversion) **Model Construction Idea**: Compare convertible bond valuation with equity valuation using historical percentile metrics to assess relative allocation value [4][15] **Model Construction Process**: Fit a cross-sectional curve of conversion premium rate and conversion value at each time point. Substitute conversion value = 100 into the fitted formula to derive "百元转股溢价率". Formula: $$ y_{i}=\alpha_{0}+\,\alpha_{1}\cdot\,{\frac{1}{x_{i}}}+\epsilon_{i} $$ Here, \( y_{i} \) represents the conversion premium rate of the \( i \)-th bond, and \( x_{i} \) represents the conversion value of the \( i \)-th bond [44] **Model Evaluation**: Provides a relative valuation perspective for convertible bonds versus equities [15] - **Model Name**: "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" (Adjusted YTM Minus Credit Bond YTM) **Model Construction Idea**: Adjust convertible bond yield-to-maturity (YTM) by removing the impact of conversion clauses to compare with credit bond YTM [4][15] **Model Construction Process**: $$ \text{Adjusted YTM} = \text{Convertible Bond YTM} \times (1 - \text{Conversion Probability}) + \text{Expected Conversion Annualized Return} \times \text{Conversion Probability} $$ Conversion probability is calculated using the Black-Scholes model, incorporating stock price, strike price, stock volatility, remaining term, and discount rate. The median of the differences between adjusted YTM and credit bond YTM is then computed: $$ \text{"修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" Median} = \text{median}\{X_1, X_2, ..., X_n\} $$ Here, \( X_i \) represents the difference between adjusted YTM and credit bond YTM for the \( i \)-th bond [45][46] **Model Evaluation**: Suitable for assessing relative allocation value between debt-heavy convertible bonds and credit bonds [15] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 转股溢价率偏离度 (Conversion Premium Rate Deviation) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measure deviation of conversion premium rate from fitted values to assess valuation differences [21] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Conversion Premium Rate Deviation} = \text{Conversion Premium Rate} - \text{Fitted Conversion Premium Rate} $$ Fitted values are determined by the cross-sectional curve fitting process [21] **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in comparing valuation across different convertible bonds [21] - **Factor Name**: 理论价值偏离度 (Theoretical Value Deviation) **Factor Construction Idea**: Assess price expectation differences using Monte Carlo simulation [21] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Theoretical Value Deviation} = \frac{\text{Convertible Bond Closing Price}}{\text{Theoretical Value}} - 1 $$ Monte Carlo simulation considers conversion, redemption, downward revision, and repurchase clauses, simulating 10,000 paths at each time point using the same credit term limit rate as the discount rate [21] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive valuation perspective by incorporating multiple convertible bond clauses [21] - **Composite Factor Name**: 转债综合估值因子 (Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combine conversion premium rate deviation and theoretical value deviation for enhanced valuation analysis [21] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor} = \text{Rank(Conversion Premium Rate Deviation)} + \text{Rank(Theoretical Value Deviation)} $$ **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates superior performance across various convertible bond categories [21] - **Factor Name**: 转债市场情绪捕捉指标 (Convertible Bond Market Sentiment Capture Indicator) **Factor Construction Idea**: Use momentum and volatility deviation to identify market sentiment [29] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ \text{Market Sentiment Capture Indicator} = \text{Rank(20-day Momentum)} + \text{Rank(Volatility Deviation)} $$ **Factor Evaluation**: Effective in guiding convertible bond style rotation strategies [29] Model Backtesting Results - **"百元转股溢价率" Model**: Rolling three-year percentile at 47.4%, rolling five-year percentile at 50.9% [4][15][18] - **"修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" Model**: Current median value at -0.03% [4][15][18] Factor Backtesting Results - **转股溢价率偏离度 Factor**: Enhanced excess returns in the past four weeks for偏股,平衡,偏债 convertible bonds at 1.33%, 0.27%, and 0.04%, respectively [5][23] - **理论价值偏离度 Factor**: Demonstrates superior performance in偏股 convertible bonds [20][21] - **转债综合估值因子 Factor**: - 偏股转债低估指数: IR = 1.22, annualized return = 24.91%, annualized volatility = 20.39%, max drawdown = -22.83%, Calmar ratio = 1.09, monthly win rate = 63.64% [24] - 平衡转债低估指数: IR = 1.16, annualized return = 13.77%, annualized volatility = 11.87%, max drawdown = -16.04%, Calmar ratio = 0.86, monthly win rate = 60.23% [24] - 偏债转债低估指数: IR = 1.29, annualized return = 12.21%, annualized volatility = 9.45%, max drawdown = -17.59%, Calmar ratio = 0.69, monthly win rate = 56.82% [24] Style Rotation Backtesting Results - **转债风格轮动 Model**: - IR = 1.47, annualized return = 24.23%, annualized volatility = 16.54%, max drawdown = -15.54%, Calmar ratio = 1.56, monthly win rate = 65.91% [35] - Recent four-week return = 2.24%, year-to-date return = 26.75% [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company has sufficient orders in the marine and nuclear power sectors, with a total order backlog of 5.07 billion yuan as of December 31, 2024 [4] - The company has launched mass production of its battery thermal protection system and has increased R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 26.91 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 34.21% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the release of production capacity from future fundraising projects, maintaining a positive outlook despite recent adjustments to profit forecasts [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 125 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.07 million yuan, down 14.84% year-on-year [3] - For the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of 529 million yuan, a growth of 4.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 54.66 million yuan, a decline of 9.76% year-on-year [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 58 million yuan, 74 million yuan, and 87 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.79, 1.01, and 1.19 yuan per share [3][6] Order and Market Outlook - The company has a strong order pipeline, particularly in the nuclear power sector with 141 million yuan in orders, and marine projects scheduled for production as far out as 2027 [4] - The cooling system segment generated revenue of 109 million yuan in 2024, up 5.54% year-on-year, while the ventilation fan segment achieved revenue of 409 million yuan, up 3.59% year-on-year [4] R&D and Innovation - The company holds 136 patents, including 22 invention patents, and has developed key products such as the EC centrifugal fan without a volute, which is used in efficient and reliable applications [5] - The mass production of the battery thermal protection system is aimed at vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells and power batteries, indicating a strategic focus on innovative solutions [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Polyester bottle chip factories have announced production cuts of approximately 20%, with a total capacity reduction of about 2.59 million tons, potentially increasing to 4.9 million tons when considering long-term shutdowns [1] - The average operating load of domestic polyester bottle chip facilities is expected to decline from 94.3% in May 2025 to around 77% due to these production cuts [1] - The processing price spread for polyester bottle chips has dropped to a low of 291 RMB/ton, with expectations for recovery as low-priced sources diminish following the planned maintenance and production cuts [2] - The current expansion phase of the polyester bottle chip industry is nearing its end, with a projected capacity increase from 11.11 million tons in 2021 to 20.43 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation [3] - The industry is expected to see a turning point upwards, with leading companies already reporting reduced losses, indicating that the low point of the polyester bottle chip cycle has passed [3] Summary by Sections Production Cuts and Capacity - Major polyester bottle chip manufacturers, including Yisheng, China Resources Materials, and Sinopec, are implementing production cuts starting July 2025, with a total capacity reduction of approximately 2.59 million tons [1] - The average operating load is projected to decrease significantly due to these cuts, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [1] Price Dynamics - The average price spread for polyester bottle chips has reached a critical low, with expectations for recovery as production cuts take effect [2] - The increase in raw material prices for PTA and ethylene glycol has pressured the processing margins, contributing to the current low price spread [2] Industry Outlook - The polyester bottle chip industry has seen significant capacity expansion, but this phase is coming to an end, with expectations for improved pricing dynamics in the near future [3] - Leading companies are beginning to report improved financial performance, suggesting a potential recovery in the industry [3] Beneficiary Companies - Key beneficiaries identified include Wankai New Materials, China Resources Materials, Sanfangxiang, Hengyi Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 0.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.82%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.9719 million yuan, a decrease of 86.98% year-on-year [3] - The company has made significant progress in the research and development of low-alpha spherical alumina, with the new production line for 50,000 tons of electronic ceramic powder now operational, expected to contribute to revenue growth [5][3] - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with net profits projected at 0.41 billion yuan (previously 0.58 billion), 0.54 billion yuan (previously 0.73 billion), and 0.72 billion yuan respectively [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to generate a revenue of 3.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.8% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 0.41 billion yuan, with an EPS of 0.39 yuan, and a P/E ratio of 82.7 times [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 22.5% in 2025, with a net margin of 12.3% [10] Industry Insights - The electronic materials industry in China is projected to grow significantly, with the market size reaching 4,809.7 billion yuan in 2023, and the semiconductor materials market accounting for 1,295.5 billion yuan, or 26.94% of the total [4] - The strategic shift towards domestic production and reduced reliance on foreign materials is expected to create substantial opportunities within the semiconductor and electronic materials sectors [4]

Consumption - The "trade-in" program continues to show effectiveness, with subsidy fund progress estimated at approximately 42% for May[3] - Retail sales in May increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The contribution breakdown of retail sales shows that major categories like home appliances and communication equipment contributed 0.27 and 0.20 percentage points respectively[3] Production - Industrial production maintained a high growth rate with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, despite a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[5] - The supply-demand structure remains poor, with the industrial enterprise production-sales rate at 95.3%, the lowest level for the same period in history[5] Fixed Investment - Real estate investment continues to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 10.7% in May, indicating a worsening trend[6] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily affected by sectors like non-ferrous metallurgy and electrical machinery[6] - Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain high growth, with special bond issuance progress at 39.0% as of June 15[6] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in policy and a possible recession in the U.S. economy[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales data for May 2025 showed a better-than-expected growth of 6.4% year-on-year, driven by the early launch of the "618" shopping festival and the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy [4][5] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from an improving macroeconomic environment, with consumer income and willingness to spend likely to improve in the medium to long term [3][4] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, but is expected to attract attention due to low valuations and increasing dividend yields [3][6] - The snack food sector is experiencing growth driven by channel innovation and product diversification, with emerging channels like Sam's Club and online e-commerce showing high growth trends [6] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [4] - The food and oil category saw a year-on-year growth of 14.6%, while the beverage category grew by 0.1% and the tobacco and alcohol category increased by 11.2% [4][10][16] Quarterly Observations - The retail sales growth is expected to rebound in Q2 2025, with food and oil categories maintaining high growth rates [5] - The retail sales of food and oil, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol categories for April-May 2025 were +12.2%, -0.5%, and +6.3% year-on-year, respectively [5] Industry Insights - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to regulatory impacts and seasonal demand weakness, while the snack food sector is thriving with strong growth opportunities [6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch in the snack food sector, including Ximai Food, Yanjinpuzi, and Wancheng Group, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [3][6]