相关研究报告 农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 17 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 《CPI 连续 4 月同比下行，政策多维发 力提振 2025H2 猪价—行业周报》 -2025.6.15 《5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不 悲观—行业点评报告》-2025.6.12 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 6 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉米、水稻、小麦产 量，维持全球大豆产量预期 ——行业点评报告 陈雪丽（分析师） 朱本伦（联系人） chenxueli@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030001 zhubenlun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124060020 玉米：2025/2026 年全球产量、消费量环比上调 （1）USDA 上调全球玉米产量。USDA（美国农业部）发布 6 月全球农产品 2025/2026 年供需预测报告，与 5 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index have shown significant fluctuations over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a decline of 32% and the ChiNext Index a decline of 16% [1] - In the past week, the top-performing sectors included Communication (+2.105%), Computer (+1.987%), Real Estate (+1.849%), and Comprehensive (+1.755%) [4][2] Group 2: Real Estate Sector Insights - In May 2025, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 353 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while the sales amount was 3.41 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [36] - New housing prices in first-tier cities showed a mixed trend, with Shanghai and Hangzhou leading in price increases, while second-hand housing prices continued to decline [11][10] - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with expectations for a weak recovery trend supported by improved marketing efforts and supply increases [40] Group 3: Consumer Market Dynamics - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, indicating a positive trend in social consumption [30] - The online retail sector showed growth, with a total online retail sales of 604.02 billion yuan from January to May 2025, up 8.5% year-on-year [33] - The consumer market is witnessing a recovery, particularly in discretionary spending categories such as home appliances, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 53% [31] Group 4: Gaming Industry Outlook - The gaming market in China reached a scale of 857.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.99% [24] - New game releases have performed well, with several titles achieving high rankings in the iOS game charts, indicating strong market demand [27] - Policy support for the gaming industry, particularly for international expansion, is expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestic gaming products [28] Group 5: Automotive Industry Developments - Several automotive companies are committing to optimize supplier payment terms, which is expected to promote a healthier industry environment [41] - The domestic automotive market is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the luxury segment, where companies are expected to achieve better profitability [41] - The trend towards intelligent driving and the development of high-growth component companies are anticipated to create significant opportunities in the automotive sector [43] Group 6: Financial Sector Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in credit growth [45] - The total social financing in May was 2.28 trillion yuan, with government bonds contributing significantly to this growth [46] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from stable dividend strategies and improved credit conditions, with recommendations for specific banks to capitalize on these trends [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) rates but a reduction in year-on-year (YoY) declines. The overall new housing price YoY decline has narrowed to 4.1% [8][14] - The second-hand housing prices have also shown a narrowing YoY decline of 6.3%, although the MoM decline has expanded to -0.5% [21][8] - The report highlights that the market is expected to stabilize further due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, alongside ongoing urban renewal projects [8] Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In May 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased MoM by -0.2%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with the overall decline across 70 cities being -0.2%, an increase in the decline compared to April [14][16] - YoY, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -1.7%, -3.5%, and -4.9% respectively, with the overall YoY decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% [14][16] Second-Hand Housing Prices - The second-hand housing prices in May 2025 decreased MoM by -0.5%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -0.7%, -0.5%, and -0.5% respectively [21][23] - YoY, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities decreased by -6.3%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -2.7%, -6.1%, and -6.9% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline by 0.5 percentage points [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong credit ratings and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8][29] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, including China Resources Land and Longfor Group [8][29] - Additionally, it highlights property management firms with high service quality under the "Good House, Good Service" policy, such as China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [8][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The retail industry index decreased by 1.49% in the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.24 percentage points [6][13] - The jewelry sector showed the highest growth among retail sub-sectors, with a weekly increase of 4.99% and a year-to-date increase of 37.10% [17][20] - The opening of the POPOP store by Pop Mart in Shanghai represents a strategic expansion into the jewelry market, leveraging popular IPs to attract young consumers [25][26] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail industry index closed at 2120.43 points, down 1.49% for the week, and down 5.29% year-to-date [6][13] - Among 31 primary industries, the retail sector ranked 25th in performance [14][16] POPOP Store Opening - Pop Mart's POPOP store features products based on popular IPs, targeting young consumers with a price range of 400 to 3000 yuan [25][26] - The store aims to resonate emotionally with consumers, highlighting the importance of jewelry as a cultural and emotional symbol for the youth [26][29] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus on high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [7] - Key recommendations include: - Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings: Old Paved Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng [31] - Retail companies adapting to trends: Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room [31] - High-quality domestic beauty brands: Maogeping, Proya, and Shangmei [32] - Medical beauty product manufacturers: Aimeike and Kedi-B [32] Company-Specific Insights - Old Paved Gold achieved a revenue of 8.506 billion yuan in FY2024, a 167.5% increase, with a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, up 253.9% [33] - Chao Hong Ji reported a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan in 2024, a 10.5% increase, with a net profit of 194 million yuan, down 41.9% [39] - Zhou Da Sheng's revenue for 2024 was 13.891 billion yuan, down 14.7%, with a net profit of 1.010 billion yuan, down 23.2% [43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The gaming industry is experiencing high prosperity, with user sentiment and consumption demand resonating with game supply release. In Q1 2025, China's gaming market size reached 85.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.99%. In April 2025, the market size was 27.351 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 21.93% and a month-on-month increase of 2.47% [4] - The trend of "self-consumption" is driving rapid growth in demand for genres such as ACG (Anime, Comic, Game), party games, and female-oriented games. The number of game licenses issued in 2024 was 1,416, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with an average of 118 licenses issued monthly [4] - New games launched in 2025 have shown impressive performance, providing related companies with earnings elasticity. For instance, "Kingshot" from Century Huatong achieved a revenue of over 75 million USD within three months of its launch [5] - The Zhejiang provincial government has introduced measures to support the internationalization of the gaming industry, which is expected to enhance the global competitiveness of domestic gaming products and drive overall industry growth [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the gaming market size was 85.704 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.99% [4] - In April 2025, the market size was 27.351 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.93% and a month-on-month growth of 2.47% [4] Game Supply and Demand - The number of game licenses issued in 2024 was 1,416, a 32% increase year-on-year, with an average of 118 licenses issued monthly [4] - The demand for genres such as ACG, party games, and female-oriented games is rapidly increasing due to the "self-consumption" trend [4] New Game Launches - New games like "暴吵萌厨" and "伊瑟" have performed well, maintaining high rankings in the iOS game charts [5] - "Kingshot" from Century Huatong achieved a revenue of over 75 million USD within three months of its launch, indicating strong market performance [5] Policy Support - The Zhejiang provincial government has issued measures to support the gaming industry's internationalization, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and drive growth [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company, a leader in the domestic corn seed industry, is currently facing short-term performance pressure but is expected to see a turning point as it ramps up research and development and expands its distribution channels [3] - The overall corn seed market is experiencing oversupply and intense competition, leading to declines in both sales volume and price [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 55 million, 67 million, and 77 million yuan respectively for those years [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 391 million yuan, a decrease of 26.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 36.49% [3][6] - The gross margin is expected to be 27.86%, down 4.23 percentage points, and the net margin is projected at 12.89%, down 1.98 percentage points [3] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 19.19 million yuan, a decline of 45.25%, with a net loss of 4.48 million yuan [3] Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 2160.87 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 17.98% [5] - Several of the company's corn varieties have been recognized for their disease resistance and high yield, with specific varieties selected as leading agricultural varieties in various provinces [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively exploring online sales channels, including establishing its own e-commerce platform and collaborating with influencers and e-commerce teams [5] - The company aims to enhance its market position in the wheat and peanut seed markets, anticipating accelerated expansion in these areas [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in sales scale and ranking, but its commercial management operations remain strong with double-digit growth in rental income. The overall business performance is stable, and the commercial occupancy rate remains high. The parent company has restarted USD bond financing, which is the first case of a private real estate company issuing overseas bonds in the past two years. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained, with expected net profits of 1.05 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.46, 0.67, and 0.78 yuan [5][8]. Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company achieved a contract sales amount of 1.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.90%, and a sales area of 252,600 square meters, down 56.12% year-on-year. The cumulative contract sales amount from January to May 2025 was 8.836 billion yuan, a decline of 55.27%, with a cumulative sales area of 1.1386 million square meters, down 58.40% year-on-year [6]. Commercial Management - As of the end of May 2025, the company operated and managed a total of 174 Wuyue Plazas, an increase of 13 from the same period in 2024. The total leased property area reached 16.04 million square meters. The cumulative commercial operating revenue from January to May 2025 was 5.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with May's single-month rental income at 1.1 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. Financing Activities - On June 12, 2025, the parent company announced the successful issuance of 300 million USD in senior notes with a coupon rate of 11.88% and a maturity of three years. The funds will be used to repurchase two upcoming maturing USD bonds. This issuance marks the first case of a private real estate company restarting overseas USD bond financing in two years, with subscriptions exceeding 880 million USD [8]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's projected financial performance includes: - Revenue for 2025 estimated at 74.206 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year - Net profit for 2025 estimated at 1.045 billion yuan, up 38.9% year-on-year - EPS for 2025 estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 29.1 times [9][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The social retail sales (社零) for May 2025 increased by 6.4%, indicating an upward trend in social consumption [5] - The total retail sales from January to May 2025 reached 20,317.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [5] - The online retail sales for the same period amounted to 6,040.2 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% increase [7] - The report emphasizes the recovery of consumer sentiment and the importance of high-quality companies in sectors aligned with "emotional consumption" [8] Summary by Sections Social Consumption Trends - The retail sales in May 2025 were 41,326 billion yuan, surpassing the Wind consensus forecast of 4.9% [5] - Urban and rural retail sales from January to May grew by 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively [5] Retail Performance - In May, the overall retail sales increased by 6.5%, with essential consumption categories like food and beverages showing strong growth [6] - The sales of home appliances and audio-visual products surged by 53.0% year-on-year, benefiting from government subsidies [6] Online and Offline Channels - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3%, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [7] - Offline retail channels, including supermarkets and convenience stores, showed positive growth, with supermarkets increasing by 5.7% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in sectors benefiting from emotional consumption, including: 1. Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings [8] 2. Retail enterprises adapting to market trends [8] 3. High-quality domestic beauty brands [8] 4. Medical beauty product manufacturers with unique pipelines [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10][24] Core Views - The company maintains its position among the top three in the industry for sales, with a strong land acquisition strategy and steady growth in recurring income [5][8][10] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected at 28.99 billion, 31.70 billion, and 34.91 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.07, 4.45, and 4.90 yuan [5][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.1, 5.6, and 5.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [5][9] Sales Performance - In May 2025, the total contract sales amount reached 18.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% but a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [6] - The average sales price increased significantly to 26,955 yuan per square meter, up 15.8% year-on-year, despite a decline in sales volume [6][18] Land Acquisition - The company ranked fourth in land acquisition amount from January to May 2025, with a total of 33.16 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 53% [7] - The average land acquisition price was 31,381 yuan per square meter, which is higher than the sales price, indicating a focus on high-quality land in major cities [7] Recurring Income - Recurring income for May 2025 was 4.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with rental income from operational real estate reaching 2.69 billion yuan, up 13.0% [8] - The company is focusing on core assets by divesting low-efficiency assets, such as the planned sale of the Nanxiang Colorful City project in Shanghai for approximately 300 to 400 million yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, which has been downgraded from a previous rating [5]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in sales scale, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.18% in May 2025 and a cumulative decline of 44.19% for the first five months of 2025. Despite this, the average sales price has increased by 17.32% year-on-year in May 2025 [6][10]. - The company continues to receive financial support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, which has provided multiple loans totaling 148.52 billion yuan at a rate of 2.34% [7][18]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting a net profit of -7.32 billion yuan in 2025, 557 million yuan in 2026, and 1.314 billion yuan in 2027 [5][8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 312.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -7.32 billion yuan, with an EPS of -0.61 yuan [8][22]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 16.4% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be -2.6% [22]. - The company's total assets are estimated to be 1,331.94 billion yuan in 2025, with total liabilities of 1,001.22 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 75.2% [21][22]. Sales Performance - In May 2025, the company achieved a sales amount of 14.19 billion yuan, with a sales area of 970,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 48.16% in sales area [6][10]. - The cumulative sales amount for the first five months of 2025 was 57.04 billion yuan, with a sales area of 4.245 million square meters, both showing significant declines compared to the previous year [10][13]. Shareholder Support - The major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided continuous financial support through loans, with the latest loan of up to 30 billion yuan announced on June 6, 2025 [7][18]. - The total amount of loans from Shenzhen Metro Group to the company has reached 148.52 billion yuan, indicating strong backing during challenging market conditions [7][18].