证券研究报告 策略周报："反内卷"引领破局新生 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 研究助理 靳旭媛 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070018 2025年7月6日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 ※ 核心观点|"反内卷"引领破局新生 2 • 上周全球风险偏好回温，权益资产多数上行。海外方面，美国就业数据超预期稳健带动风偏回升，美股三大股指上涨1%-3%，10Y美债收益 率上行10BP至4.4%。国内方面，A股整体向上、结构分化。上证指数上涨1.4%，红利表现靠前，小盘有所回调。全A日均成交额录得1.44万 亿元；全周股票型ETF净流出225.3亿元。行业上，钢铁、建筑材料、银行表现靠前；光伏玻璃、CRO、创新药、水产等概念领涨。 • 海外方面，美国就业超预期稳健，全球贸易谈判仍在进行。基本面上，美国制造业景气仍处收缩区间，但劳动力市场韧性延缓降息预期。 美国6月ISM制造业PMI升至49.0%，连续四个月处于收缩区间，新订单连续五个月减少。就业市场来看，美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万 人，远超预期的11万人，失业率 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the electronics industry, highlighting the emergence of foldable screens, AI smartphones, and AI glasses as new growth opportunities for the industry in the second half of 2025 [2][113] - The transition from feature phones to smartphones occurred from 2009 to 2012, followed by smartphone design upgrades from 2013 to 2016. From 2016 to 2023, the demand for smartphone replacements weakened, leading to sluggish growth. Since 2024, AI smartphones have entered the mainstream market [2][20][113] - In Q1 2025, the shipment of foldable smartphones in China reached 2.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 53.1%, indicating a market recovery [2][36][113] Group 2 - AI smartphones are expected to see significant growth, with IDC predicting shipments to reach 827 million units by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 52% from 2024 to 2027 [2][51][113] - The rise of AI technology is driving innovation in terminal devices, with AI glasses emerging as a new application platform. These glasses are lighter and more integrated into daily life compared to traditional XR devices [2][64][113] - The global shipment of AI glasses is projected to reach 5.5 million units in 2025, with a forecasted increase to 22 million units by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 144% from 2024 to 2027 [2][94][113] Group 3 - The electronics industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points since the beginning of the year, with the semiconductor and electronic chemical sectors showing positive growth [7][12][11] - The report notes a significant increase in the concentration of smartphone brands, with the top five brands accounting for 67% of the global market share as of Q1 2025 [26][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of micro-innovation in products as the industry faces a slowdown in shipment growth and increasing market concentration [2][113]

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows stable growth with new momentum strengthening, as industrial production increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 8.6% [12][14] - Fixed asset investment maintained a steady growth of 3.7% year-on-year from January to May, with significant contributions from equipment investment, which rose by 17.3% [13][15] - Retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, driven by the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy [13][15] Domestic Market Review - In June, the A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, and active trading in advanced manufacturing, finance, and non-ferrous metals [5][21] - The bond market confirmed the central bank's supportive stance, showing a bull steepening trend with a compression of long-term yield spreads [5][19] Domestic Market Outlook - The risk appetite in the domestic market is expected to continue rising in July due to easing external disturbances and positive domestic policy signals [5][21] - The upcoming political bureau meeting at the end of July is anticipated to set the economic work priorities for the second half of the year, potentially releasing new policy signals to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market [5][21] Foreign Market Review - In June, the U.S. stock market showed a volatile upward trend, reaching new highs, while the dollar index weakened amid fluctuating risk sentiment [5][21] - The bond market in the U.S. experienced a downward trend in yields, maintaining a steep curve, while the Hong Kong stock market benefited from domestic policy support, showing a volatile upward trend [5][21] Foreign Market Outlook - The U.S. market may face disturbances from rising inflation pressures and uncertainties surrounding tariff and budget legislation, leading to a volatile trading environment [8][21] - The bond yields in the U.S. are expected to trend upwards due to short-term stability in the economic fundamentals and a return of rate cut expectations [8][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to easing geopolitical tensions, while long-term prospects for gold remain positive amid ongoing uncertainties [8][21] - Copper prices are anticipated to accelerate due to macroeconomic and fundamental resonance [8][21] - Oil prices may face short-term risks from geopolitical factors, with a bearish outlook in the medium term [8][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1]. Core Insights - The rise of AI technology is driving innovation in terminal devices, with AI smart glasses emerging as a new carrier for AI applications. Compared to traditional XR devices, AI smart glasses integrate AI technology and focus on visual and auditory functions, making them lighter and more suitable for daily life scenarios. Users primarily utilize AI smart glasses for photography, live streaming, music, calls, and AI voice interaction [3][24]. - With an increasing number of entrants, 2025 is expected to see a surge in new AI smart glasses releases. The market is shifting from "showing off technology" to "practical use," with features like translation, photography, and AI voice assistants becoming common in daily scenarios, especially in sports, commuting, and translation contexts. Major smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi and Samsung are anticipated to launch their first AI smart glasses in 2025 [3][18]. - The AI+AR future application potential is significant, with SoC and optical display being core value segments. The cost structure of AI smart glasses shows that the chip segment accounts for a substantial portion of the overall cost, with SoC being the primary cost driver [3][28]. Summary by Sections 1. New Products and Market Potential - AI smart glasses are expected to become a new carrier for AI applications, integrating essential sensory interaction methods [3][19]. - The market is entering a phase of dense new product releases, with a projected global shipment of 5.5 million units by 2025 and a CAGR of 144% from 2024 to 2027 [3][49]. 2. Core Components and Technology - SoC is identified as the core cost source for AI smart glasses, with a significant portion of the BOM cost attributed to chips [3][62]. - The report highlights the importance of Micro LED and optical display technologies in enhancing the application scenarios of AI+AR smart glasses [3][97]. 3. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - AI smart glasses are transitioning from novelty to practicality, with features that enhance user experience in various scenarios [3][37]. - Collaboration between AI smart glasses brands and traditional eyewear brands is emerging as a significant trend, enhancing the distribution and service ecosystem [3][33].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the domestic large model capabilities are improving, with applications focusing on three main areas: finance, office, and AI agents [2][42] - The computer industry has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in revenue and profit in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a fundamental turning point [6][19] - The demand for intelligent computing power is strong, and domestic AI chip manufacturers are seizing development opportunities due to the inability to import advanced AI chips from the US [3][26] Group 2 - The report notes that the intelligent driving market in China is rapidly expanding, with a significant shift towards higher-level commercial applications expected soon [3][28] - The performance of domestic large models, represented by DeepSeek, is now comparable to leading global models, and their lower costs are expected to accelerate their adoption across various sectors [35][42] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in the financial sector, with a positive attitude towards AI investments among financial institutions, indicating a potential market worth hundreds of billions [43][47] Group 3 - The computer industry has outperformed the market, ranking 6th among 31 sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 7.85% as of June 25, 2024 [19][22] - The report indicates that the valuation of the computer industry is currently above historical averages, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 82.9, the highest among all sectors [26][27] - The report suggests that the future of the AI industry in China is promising, driven by government support and advancements in domestic AI technologies [28][30]

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that in the second half of the year, credit bond yields may follow government bond yields downward, but the supply of credit bonds may increase while demand weakens, leading to a risk of widening credit spreads [3][6][7]. Market Overview Domestic Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3461, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 1.91% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10535, with a daily increase of 1.17% and a weekly increase of 3.73% [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968, with a daily increase of 0.62% and a weekly increase of 1.95% [1]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 2164, with a daily increase of 1.90% and a weekly increase of 5.69% [1]. International Market - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24070, with a daily decrease of 0.63% and a weekly increase of 3.20% [4]. - The Dow Jones Index closed at 44484, with a daily decrease of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 3.82% [4]. - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6227, with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 3.44% [4]. Credit Bond Strategy - The report emphasizes that the overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of the year should focus on extending duration, as it may still be a better strategy. Additionally, opportunities in lower-rated bonds should be monitored [6][7]. - Among the three major sectors, it is recommended to pay more attention to municipal investment bonds, as their supply is expected to weaken, followed by financial bonds [6][7]. Sector Strategies 1. **Municipal Investment Bonds**: Focus on opportunities for spread compression in high-quality municipal bonds from good regions, as policies may alleviate credit risks [7]. 2. **Industrial Bonds**: Monitor opportunities for spread recovery in state-owned enterprise bonds after risk events have eased, as well as coupon opportunities from state-owned real estate and construction bonds [7]. 3. **Financial Bonds**: Pay attention to overall opportunities arising from reduced supply pressure on perpetual bonds and structural opportunities from the merger of rural commercial banks [7]. 4. **Technology Innovation Bonds**: Opportunities for spread compression are worth noting, as their rates are slightly higher than green bonds [7].

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the first half of 2025, the market saw an increase in government bond yields, while credit bond yields fluctuated, leading to a compression of credit spreads, particularly in lower-rated bonds [2][8][11] - The overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of 2025 suggests that yields may follow government bonds downward, but supply could increase while demand weakens, posing a risk of widening credit spreads [2][30][35] - The report recommends focusing on city investment bonds with weakening supply, followed by financial bonds, as potential investment opportunities [2][30][39] Group 2 - For city investment bonds, the report highlights opportunities for spread compression in high-quality regional bonds, supported by policies aimed at alleviating credit risks [3][43][54] - In the industrial bond sector, the report suggests monitoring the recovery of spreads following the resolution of risk events related to state-owned enterprise bonds, as well as opportunities arising from debt collection policies [3][58][63] - The financial bond segment is expected to see a decrease in supply pressure for perpetual bonds, particularly due to the consolidation of rural commercial banks, which may present structural opportunities [3][67][76] Group 3 - The report notes that the supply of credit bonds is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, with government bond net financing projected to be lower than the previous year, while industrial bonds may see a rise in supply [30][32][35] - Demand for credit bonds may weaken, leading to a potential widening of credit spreads, as the report anticipates a decrease in the attractiveness of bank deposits compared to bonds [33][35][36] - Historical data suggests that during periods of widening credit spreads, extending duration and focusing on lower-rated bonds have been effective strategies [36][37][39] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the city investment bond market is under strict regulatory scrutiny, particularly for lower-rated bonds, which may limit their issuance [54][57] - The industrial bond sector is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at supporting state-owned enterprises, particularly in real estate and construction [63][66] - The financial bond market is likely to experience a shift towards stronger credit profiles, especially in regions undergoing consolidation of rural commercial banks [72][76]

Group 1: Core Insights - The new generation of consumers, raised in the internet and mobile internet era, emphasizes experience, authenticity, self-focus, and personalization, driving changes in travel, retail, beauty, and pet sectors [2][6][8] - The tourism consumption potential is continuously being released, with a focus on broad beneficiaries in the OTA platform sector, particularly in domestic travel and inbound tourism [6][7] - Retail is returning to consumer demand itself, with traditional retail showing differentiated performance across categories, and recommendations include Alibaba and Yonghui Supermarket [7][8] Group 2: Industry Recommendations - In the beauty and pet sectors, domestic brands are thriving, with significant growth rates of 20-30% or more in specific segments like skincare and pet food [8] - The bond market is experiencing wide fluctuations due to policy uncertainties, with U.S. Treasury yields showing a downward trend in early months and an overall increase in May [3][9] - The credit spread in the credit bond market has slightly increased, but the overall increase is manageable due to stable hard data from the U.S. economy [9][11] Group 3: Market Trends - The commodity market shows varied performance, with crude oil prices down by 12.12% over the past week, while gold prices increased by 1.87% [4] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with a surprising decrease in private sector employment in June, raising concerns about economic momentum [16][17] - The second-hand car market in China remains in a downturn, with the manager index at 42.3%, indicating a lack of demand and increased risks in transactions [19]

Group 1: Core Insights - The new generation of consumers, raised in the internet and mobile internet era, emphasizes experiential consumption, authenticity, and personalization, driving changes in travel, retail, beauty, and pet sectors [3][12] - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with domestic travel projected to reach 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, and 56.15 billion domestic trips anticipated, marking a 14.8% growth [18][21] - The retail sector is returning to consumer demand, with traditional retail showing growth in essential goods and cultural consumption, while e-commerce platforms are focusing on optimizing consumer experiences [42][45] Group 2: Tourism Sector - Domestic tourism is recovering, with urban residents expected to make 43.7 billion trips in 2024, a 16.3% increase, and rural residents 12.45 billion trips, a 9.9% increase [18] - International travel is rebounding, with 1.23 billion outbound trips in 2024, a 41% increase, and inbound tourism expected to grow by 60.8% to 1.32 billion visitors [21][26] - OTA platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng are benefiting from the recovery in travel demand and are expanding their inbound tourism services [27] Group 3: Retail Sector - The retail market is experiencing steady growth, with social retail sales expected to rise, and online retail growth slowing down as platforms focus on consumer needs [42][45] - Traditional retailers like Yonghui Supermarket are undergoing significant transformations to meet consumer demands, with a focus on quality and customer experience [57] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is adapting to changing tariff policies, with companies like Yiwu Market playing a crucial role in global supply chains [58][62] Group 4: Beauty and Pet Industries - The beauty and pet sectors are witnessing rapid growth, with domestic brands achieving revenue growth rates of 20-30% in niche markets [68][72] - The pet industry in China has surpassed 300 billion yuan in market size, reflecting the growing trend of pet ownership and related consumption [68] - Companies in the beauty sector, such as Aimeike, are expected to see growth due to lower base effects and strategic acquisitions [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The third quarter is a crucial observation window to determine the market direction. If inflation does not rise significantly in the next 2 - 3 months, the risk of rising unemployment increases, and bond market opportunities from September to the fourth quarter improve. If inflation rises significantly in the third quarter, the probability of a wage - inflation spiral increases, and interest rates may remain high or even rise further [3][36]. - The spread of US dollar bonds still has an upward risk, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the US fundamentals. It is recommended to choose sectors with relatively low volatility, such as the brokerage and state - owned enterprise sectors, and pay attention to floating - rate bonds [3]. - The high interest rate spread supports the US dollar index. Although the US dollar index has declined overall in the first half of the year, it may still trade in the range of 95 - 105 in the second half of the year with limited downside space [4][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review: Policy Disturbance, US Treasury Bond Volatility, and Outperformance of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - US asset prices mainly traded around policy in the first half of the year, with the 10Y US Treasury bond yield fluctuating in the range of 4% - 4.7%. From January to March, government spending cuts and trade uncertainties led to a reversal of optimism among US enterprises and residents, pushing down the US Treasury bond yield. In April, policy uncertainties led to the selling of US Treasury bonds. In May, the risk situation improved, but fiscal concerns resurfaced, causing the yield to rise [7][9]. - High - yield bonds outperformed investment - grade and sovereign bonds in terms of investment returns in the first half of the year. In the Sino - US comparison, the performance of investment - grade bonds mainly depends on static coupons, while the performance rhythm of high - yield bonds is affected by policies [12]. - The spread of investment - grade US dollar bonds first rose and then fell, while the spread of high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds generally increased. The spread increase was controllable due to the stable performance of US hard data [16]. Benchmark Interest Rate Outlook: The Third Quarter is a Crucial Observation Window to Determine the Market Direction - The US fundamentals remained stable in the first half of the year, with the average tariff rate expected to increase by about 16%. The inflation pressure on residents' consumption has not yet emerged, and the employment market shows initial signs of pressure but remains generally stable. The reasons for the stable employment market may be the relatively stable corporate profit growth and the tightening of immigration policies [19][31]. - The third quarter is a window period to test whether the US economy moves towards "stagflation" or "inflation". If inflation does not rise significantly in the next 2 - 3 months, the risk of rising unemployment increases, and bond market opportunities improve. If inflation rises significantly, interest rates may remain high. The opportunities for US Treasury bonds in the fourth quarter may be greater than in the third quarter [36][38]. - Attention should be paid to the potential impact of events such as the expiration of higher reciprocal tariff exemptions, the passage of tax reform bills, and the debt ceiling. The potential SLR ratio adjustment or exemption in summer may release banks' bond - allocation potential and bring investment opportunities for the upward movement of Treasury bond swap spreads, but the effect may be limited [38][47]. Exchange Rate Outlook: High Interest Rate Spread Supports the US Dollar Index - The US dollar index has weakened since the beginning of the year due to policy uncertainties, concerns about fiscal sustainability, and the reduction of exchange - rate risk hedging ratios by some foreign investors [50][52]. - The high interest rate spread still supports the US dollar index. In the second half of the year, the US dollar index may trade in the range of 95 - 105 with limited downside space. The eurozone's growth recovery faces obstacles, and Japan's economy may be affected by weak external demand. If there is no further policy disturbance, the previous over - decline of the US dollar may be corrected [53]. - The market sentiment is gradually recovering, as indicated by the upward movement of the US dollar risk - reversal index and the potential support of the US stock market's relative outperformance over European stocks for the US dollar index [66]. US Dollar Bond Strategy: The Spread Still Has an Upward Risk, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Evolution of the US Fundamentals - The spread of US dollar bonds still has an upward risk, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the US fundamentals. It is recommended to appropriately tighten the credit risk exposure in the second half of the year [70]. - After considering the exchange - rate hedging, the domestic - foreign spread of investment - grade US dollar bonds is at a low level [74]. - It is recommended to pay attention to sectors such as brokerage and floating - rate bonds. It is advisable to shrink the credit exposure or choose sectors with relatively low turnover and volatility. Floating - rate bonds have relative value, with shorter durations and potential for spread recovery [75]. - In the short term, there are relatively few opportunities for interest - rate bonds. For credit bonds, the credit spread still has an upward risk, and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals [79].