Group 1: Bond Market Insights - In May 2025, the bond custody scale maintained rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, and an additional custody scale of 2.3 trillion yuan, which is 940.2 billion yuan more than seasonal increases [7] - Government bonds (including national and local bonds) had a total supply scale of nearly 1.4 trillion yuan in May, with national bonds at 904.1 billion yuan and local bonds at 521.6 billion yuan [7] - Banks and asset management accounts are the main players in bond allocation, with foreign capital and securities firms reducing their holdings [7] Group 2: Macroeconomic Trends - The start of the summer travel season has led to increased offline activities, with indicators showing a rise in travel and entertainment, such as a 18.2% year-on-year increase in the Baidu migration index [3][10] - The production of raw materials is showing marginal recovery, supported by stabilized prices, with various industries experiencing different levels of recovery [9] - The real estate market is seeing a slight decline in new home transactions, with average daily sales in 30 major cities decreasing [10] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is focusing on low-alcohol products and continuous innovation, with companies like Shui Jing Fang and Yanghe actively developing lower alcohol content products to meet changing consumer preferences [16] - The beverage market is shifting towards functional products, with companies launching new offerings to cater to specific consumer needs, such as electrolyte drinks and health-focused beverages [17] - The snack industry is experiencing strong growth, driven by consumer demand for value and health-conscious options, with companies expanding their product lines [17] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The introduction of the first commercial health insurance innovation drug directory in 2025 aims to guide innovative drugs back to their clinical value, with a focus on high-innovation and high-clinical-value drugs [18][19] - The collaboration between commercial insurance and the healthcare system is expected to enhance the accessibility and affordability of innovative drugs [18] Group 5: Renewable Energy Sector - The wind power index increased by 1.3%, while the solar energy index rose by 5.76%, indicating a positive trend in the renewable energy market [22] - The central government is emphasizing the development of offshore wind power and addressing issues of low-price competition in the solar industry [23] - Investment opportunities are emerging in offshore wind demand and solar energy, with recommendations for companies like Mingyang Smart Energy and LONGi Green Energy [25] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 460 million to 490 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% to 26.76% [27] - The company's strategy of fully embracing AI has led to significant improvements in operational efficiency and market competitiveness [28] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in global markets, particularly in the automotive aftermarket and energy sectors, which is expected to drive future growth [29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the introduction of the first commercial health insurance innovative drug directory in 2025, which aims to guide the return of innovative drugs to their clinical value by leveraging payment mechanisms [3]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) has initiated the process for the 2025 negotiations, which includes the adjustment of the national medical insurance directory and the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory [3]. - The report suggests focusing on "innovation," "going global," "equipment upgrades," and "consumption recovery" as key investment strategies within the biopharmaceutical sector [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The NHSA's new policy will include innovative drugs that are highly innovative, clinically valuable, and significantly beneficial to patients, which will be recommended for use in commercial health insurance and medical mutual aid systems [3]. - The commercial health insurance innovative drug directory will be developed with the participation of insurance industry experts, who will have significant decision-making power regarding drug access and pricing negotiations [3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with global competitiveness in innovative drugs, such as BeiGene, East China Pharmaceutical, and others [5]. - It highlights potential opportunities in overseas markets and suggests monitoring companies like Mindray Medical and others for long-term growth [5]. - The report also points out the expected support for medical equipment upgrades from central and local government financing, recommending companies like Mindray Medical and others [5]. - It notes that consumption recovery policies may positively impact sectors like ophthalmology, dentistry, and medical aesthetics, suggesting companies like Puri Eye Hospital and others for investment [5]. Market Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector saw a weekly increase of 3.64%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.54% [8][19]. - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation stands at 28.52 times (TTM), with a premium of 32.16% over the overall A-share market [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the bond custody scale maintained rapid growth, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.1% in the bond custody balance. The newly added custody scale in that month was 2.3 trillion yuan, 940.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level [4][5]. - The supply of treasury bonds increased by nearly one trillion, while the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds declined. The total supply of government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) in May was close to 1.4 trillion yuan, with treasury bonds and local bonds at 904.1 billion yuan and 521.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Banks and asset management accounts were the main buyers, while foreign investors and securities firms reduced their holdings. After deducting the net repurchase of central bank's outright reverse repurchase, banks' net bond purchases in May still reached 1.6 trillion yuan. Non - legal person products increased their holdings by 833.3 billion yuan, 313.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal level [4]. - The supply of local bonds will accelerate, and the demand from asset management accounts is good. In June, the supply of local bonds accelerated, which is expected to drive government bond financing to remain at a relatively high level. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the overall inter - bank funds have a strong ability to absorb bond supply [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in May 2025 - The bond custody balance in May 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 15.1%, and the newly added custody scale was 2.3 trillion yuan, 940.2 billion yuan more than the seasonal level [4][5]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Treasury bonds, local bonds, financial bonds, certificates of deposit, and policy - based financial bonds were the main varieties of new net financing in May, with net financing of 904.1 billion yuan, 521.6 billion yuan, 306.4 billion yuan, 269.4 billion yuan, and 208.4 billion yuan respectively [9]. - The supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and corporate credit bonds declined. The net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit in May was 269.4 billion yuan, lower than that in April. Corporate credit bond supply fell to 89 billion yuan [18]. 3.3 By Institution - Banks and non - legal person products (asset management accounts) were the main bond buyers, with their custody volume increasing by 1.8 trillion yuan and 833.3 billion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the seasonal level. Securities firms' proprietary trading and overseas institutions reduced their holdings [21]. - Commercial banks increased their holdings by 1.8 trillion yuan. After considering the net repurchase of central bank's outright reverse repurchase of 200 billion yuan, the actual purchase scale in May was 1.6 trillion yuan. Banks had strong digestion ability for government bonds, and in May, they increased their holdings of government bonds by about 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 93% of the government bond supply [25]. - Insurance institutions increased their holdings by 586 million yuan, less than the seasonal level, and mainly increased their holdings of credit bonds. In May, the government bonds they increased their holdings accounted for only 1% of the new government bond supply [27]. - Non - legal person products increased their holdings by 833.3 billion yuan, 313.7 billion yuan more than the seasonal level, mainly increasing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. Since April 2024, the year - on - year growth rate of wealth management scale has remained above 8% [29]. - In May, fund companies' net bond purchases in the secondary market were 507.7 billion yuan, an increase from April. They mainly increased their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, with a preference for short - term varieties within 3 years [38]. - Foreign investors reduced their holdings by 933 million yuan, mainly reducing their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The reduction was due to the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar and the decline in carry - trade returns [41]. - Securities firms reduced their holdings by 1576 million yuan, reducing their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The reduction may be related to the closing of positive - carry trades after the reserve requirement ratio cut [41]. 3.4 Outlook - The supply of local bonds will accelerate, driving the supply of government bonds to increase month - on - month. As of June 19, the net financing of local special bonds in June was 347.4 billion yuan [43]. - Banks' liability pressure has eased, and their allocation demand has improved, but they may sell bonds to realize profits at the end of the quarter. As of June 20, commercial banks had net sold 1.7 trillion yuan of bonds in the secondary market, 1.2 trillion yuan more than the seasonal level [49]. - Insurance institutions are expected to maintain a moderately weak bond - allocation intensity. The bond - allocation progress of insurance this year is relatively fast, and the attractiveness of the 10 - year treasury bond yield has decreased. They may focus on ultra - long - term bonds with spreads [55]. - Asset management accounts are expected to maintain a strong bond - allocation intensity. After the deposit interest rate cut, there may be continuous capital inflows into asset management accounts. In the first three weeks of June, funds and wealth management products maintained a strong buying intensity in the secondary market [56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [1][12] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 460 million to 490 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.00% to 26.76% [4][7] - The company is accelerating the integration of AI technology into its business operations, which is driving growth in its digital repair and smart energy businesses [7][8] - The company has made significant progress in its "Fully Embrace AI" strategy, enhancing its competitive edge and profitability in various markets [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 4.55 billion to 4.85 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 57.32% to 67.69% for the net profit excluding non-recurring items [4][7] - For the second quarter of 2025, the expected net profit is between 261 million to 291 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.38% to +11.07% [7] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 3,932 million yuan in 2024 to 7,541 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 22.2% [6][10] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 55.1% to 55.5% from 2025 to 2027 [6][10] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 16.3% in 2024 to 18.7% in 2027 [6][10] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 18.0% in 2025 to 24.5% in 2027 [6][10] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 33.0 in 2024 to 15.0 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [6][10] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 6.3 in 2024 to 3.8 in 2027 [6][10] Strategic Developments - The company has launched new AI-driven products, such as the Ultra S2 diagnostic terminal and ADAS calibration system, which have received positive market feedback [7][8] - The company is expanding its presence in global markets, achieving significant breakthroughs in various industries, including energy and transportation [8]

Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [31] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor industry is focusing on low-alcohol products and continuous innovation, with companies like Shui Jing Fang and Yanghe actively developing products below 38 degrees to cater to younger consumers [6][4] - The beverage sector is experiencing a shift from "thirst-quenching" to "solution-oriented" consumption, leading to new opportunities in functional drinks and snacks, with companies exploring new consumer needs [6][5] - The food and beverage sector is seeing strong growth in snacks, driven by emotional value and cost-effectiveness, with upstream manufacturers launching new healthy products [6][5] Summary by Sections White Liquor Industry - The white liquor index has a cumulative increase of +1.22% this week, with top performers including Jiu Gui Jiu (+8.82%) and She De Jiu Ye (+2.38%) [6] - Companies are innovating to meet consumer demand for lower alcohol content and new product formats, indicating a positive trend for high-end and next-tier white liquors [6][4] Food Industry - The food index has a cumulative increase of +0.37% this week, with top performers including Ketaobiology (+21.90%) and Huang Shang Huang (+11.71%) [6] - The demand for beverages is diversifying, with a focus on functional drinks tailored to specific scenarios, such as electrolyte water for sports and herbal teas for wellness [6][5] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies in the sector are projected to have strong earnings growth, with recommendations for stocks like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on offshore wind power development and the need to combat price competition in the photovoltaic sector, suggesting a shift towards quality improvement and innovation [6][7]. - The offshore wind market is expected to grow due to supportive policies and decreasing investment costs, while the photovoltaic sector faces challenges with price declines and profitability pressures [6][7]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the importance of developing offshore wind power as part of the marine economy, aiming for orderly construction and quality improvement [11]. - The wind power index increased by 1.3% over the week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, with a current PE ratio of 19.69 times [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in domestic offshore wind demand, recovery of profitability, and advancements in floating wind technology, with recommended companies including Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Dongfang Cable [7][18]. Photovoltaics - The report discusses the government's focus on addressing price competition in the photovoltaic industry, with expectations of continued price declines in the supply chain [6]. - The current PE ratio for the photovoltaic sector is approximately 31.75 times, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [5]. - Structural opportunities are suggested, with recommended companies including Dier Laser, Aiko Solar, and Longi Green Energy [7]. Energy Storage & Hydrogen - A series of independent energy storage projects have commenced in Inner Mongolia, indicating a push for new energy storage solutions [7]. - The report anticipates a resurgence in demand for new energy storage following a phase of adjustment, with investment opportunities in companies like Sungrow Power and Deye Technology [7]. - The hydrogen sector is highlighted for its potential, with a focus on companies involved in green hydrogen project investments, recommending Jilin Electric Power [7].

Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - The summer travel season has initiated, with Baidu migration index showing a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and domestic flights up by 2.9%[2] - The production of raw materials is recovering, supported by stable prices, with steel output and apparent demand increasing by 0.5% and 1.4% respectively this week[2][5] Group 2: Industrial Sector Insights - The production of five major steel varieties has increased, with glass and asphalt operating rates also improving[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization has shown marginal adjustments, while the textile polyester operating rate has rebounded[2] Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in 30 major cities have seen a decline in average daily transaction area, with a month-on-month decrease noted at the beginning of July[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.28% as of June 23[2] Group 4: Domestic Demand Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.032 million units in June, marking a 15% year-on-year growth[2] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of June 27, indicating sustained consumer demand[2] Group 5: External Demand and Risks - Port cargo throughput increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 3.1%[2] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[2][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by approximately 10 billion yuan this year, and by the end of 2025, it may be around 9 billion yuan. If other commercial banks can follow the example of state - owned banks' low - PB private placements, there may be a possibility of supplementary supply of bank convertible bonds [3][4]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have the characteristics of high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. It is recommended to pay attention to AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities for low - volatility and high - rating, and photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds for large capital capacity [3][40]. - For photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds, it is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. When the convertible bond price is low, gradually build a position [2][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The balance of bank convertible bonds may shrink by about 10 billion yuan this year - As of June 30, 2025, there were 10 bank convertible bonds in the market, with a balance of 13.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 bonds and 11.1 billion yuan compared with the end of 2023. If the relevant convertible bonds are all delisted, the balance of bank convertible bonds will further shrink by 10.13 billion yuan to 8.98 billion yuan by the end of 2025 compared with the end of 2024 [4]. - The shrinkage of bank convertible bond scale may be irreversible in the short term. It is necessary to observe the progress of bank capital replenishment. Currently, the policy supports state - owned large - scale banks to replenish core tier - one capital. This year, the private placement prices of four state - owned big banks were lower than 1 - time PB, about 0.7 - time PB. There are bank convertible bonds totaling 2.9 billion yuan that have been announced but not issued, and the current PB multiples of the underlying stocks are between 0.5 - 0.7 times [4]. 2. The replacement bottom - position varieties should have three characteristics: high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity - Before 2024, bank convertible bonds mainly served as bottom - position allocation varieties, with limited contribution to returns. Since 2024, due to the strengthening of the dividend style, bank convertible bonds have advantages in both returns and volatility. After bank convertible bonds exit the market, investors may return to the pre - 2024 investment model, and the difficulty of participation has increased. Some investors may leave the convertible bond market [13]. - The replacement bottom - position varieties should have high rating, low volatility, and high capital capacity. Configuration is the primary function, and individual bond elastic returns are a by - product [13]. 3. Low - volatility and high - rating: AAA - rated convertible bonds in non - banking finance and general public utilities - As of June 30, there were 4 non - banking finance convertible bonds, with 3 AAA - rated ones having a total scale of 1.46 billion yuan. They belong to the same large - finance industry as bank convertible bonds, with low risks of underlying stock delisting and credit default. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the high. When the convertible bond price returns to around 110 - 115 yuan, it may be a good bottom - position allocation buying point [17]. - The so - called "general public utilities" include public utilities and transportation. There are 3 AAA - rated convertible bonds in this sector, with a balance of 1 billion yuan. The advantage is a long remaining term, and the disadvantage is a relatively high current convertible bond price and insufficient defense against underlying stock decline [18][20]. 4. Large capital capacity: Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding convertible bonds - Photovoltaic equipment and pig - breeding are both strong - cycle industries. The current balance of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds is 6.08 billion yuan, and the balance of pig - breeding convertible bonds is 2.72 billion yuan. The photovoltaic equipment sector's net profit turned negative in 2024, and the pig - breeding sector may have passed the most difficult period, but the pig price has been falling since August 2024 [21]. - The advantages of photovoltaic equipment convertible bonds are low prices and high capital accommodation. It is recommended to screen leading individual bonds and leave room for rating downgrades. The advantage of pig - breeding convertible bonds is mainly large capital capacity, and it is necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in the pig price [22].

其 他 报 告 2025年07月07日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3472 | 0.32 | 1.91 | | 深证成份指数 | 10509 | -0.25 | 3.73 | | 沪深300指数 | 3982 | 0.36 | 1.95 | | 创业板指数 | 2156 | -0.36 | 5.69 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | 0.04 | 0.02 | | 上证基金指数 | 6942 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 23916 | -0.64 | 3.20 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8609 | -0.45 | 2.76 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22548 | -0.73 | 2.42 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44829 | 0.77 | 3.82 | ...