上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 30 日 牧原股份 (002714) ——领先成本助穿越周期，双擎共振启价值新程 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 50.89 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 59.68/35.72 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.95 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 193,921 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,965.12/13,604.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.89 | | 资产负债率% | 55.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 中欧基金吉翔：专注发掘具有长期 竞争优势个股的价值型基金经理 ——基金经理研究系列报告之九十 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 其 他 权 益 类 产 品 - ⚫ 价值风格的配置价值：长期投资性价比更高，日历效应提示当下配置价值：价值是一类 持有体验度较好的风格策略：（1）从长期配置维度下相对占优；（2）大多数时间下夏 普比明显更高；（3）最大回撤明显更低、创新高能力更强。日历效应反映近期价值风格 的配置价值：观察近 10 年时间中价值风格在 ...

国防车工 相关研究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 看好 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 班牙/分出京 申万宏源研究微信服务号 近期军工受订单及业绩等不确定性影响进行调整,但我们认为军工调整逐渐结束,军工 ● 进入筑底上升期:短期来看,年末订单交付加速,四季度业绩预期环比改善,目"十五 五"规划持续推进,一季度起订单有望从"点状"到"线状"乃至"面状"落地;中长 期看，由于地缘政治不确定性加剧，消耗类武器装备持续放量，以及军贸需求加大带来 巨大投资机会。建议重点关注军工底部配置时机,细分方向关注新型主战装备、消耗类 武器、军贸、军工智能化等领域投资机会；同时重视商业航天、深空经济、可控核聚变 等主题性外延投资机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The automotive dealership sector, particularly represented by Zhongsheng Holdings, is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from being perceived as a "negative amplifier" for automakers. The company is expected to benefit from new business initiatives, particularly with the introduction of the AITO brand, which is anticipated to drive performance and valuation recovery [2][3]. - The competitive landscape in the mid-to-high-end automotive market is expected to intensify, with traditional luxury brands facing ongoing operational pressures. However, automakers are likely to adopt strategies to stabilize dealership operations, which may lead to improved profitability for dealerships [3][4]. - Fuda Co., Ltd. is highlighted for its industrialization capabilities in robotics, with recent strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing production capacity and expanding into new markets, such as exoskeleton robots [5]. - Hengbo Co., Ltd. is noted for its vertical integration in the PEEK materials sector, which positions the company favorably to meet increasing demand from overseas clients, particularly in the humanoid robotics field [6]. Summary by Company Zhongsheng Holdings - The company is expected to see a 20% or higher profit growth in the coming year, with a valuation around 7 times earnings, indicating potential for further earnings per share (EPS) and dividend benefits as it returns to a normal operating cycle [4]. Fuda Co., Ltd. - The company has established a low-cost control mechanism through domestic equipment production and partnerships, which is expected to enhance its capacity and market reach in the robotics sector [5]. Hengbo Co., Ltd. - The company has a comprehensive R&D capability and a fully integrated supply chain in the PEEK materials sector, which is expected to drive growth as demand from international clients increases [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The strategic positioning of asset-liability management for insurance companies has been elevated, with the introduction of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" by the Financial Supervisory Authority [2]. - The draft emphasizes three main goals for asset-liability management: matching the term structure, cost-benefit matching, and liquidity matching, with insurance companies bearing primary responsibility and the authority overseeing compliance [2]. - The governance structure requires clear delineation of responsibilities for the board of directors and senior management, establishing an asset-liability management committee and department within insurance companies [2]. - The report highlights the importance of asset-liability management in mitigating interest spread risks, especially in a declining interest rate environment, and aims to enhance the risk warning mechanism for insurance operations [2]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Monitoring Indicators - For property and casualty insurance companies, there are three regulatory indicators focusing on income-cost coverage and liquidity, all of which must not fall below 100% [5]. - For life insurance companies, four regulatory indicators are established, including effective duration gap and comprehensive investment income coverage, also requiring a minimum of 100% [5]. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a valuation table for key non-bank financial companies, including China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, with metrics such as market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratios [6]. - For instance, China Life has a market capitalization of 115.02 billion RMB and a PE ratio of 7.66, while Ping An has a market capitalization of 119.24 billion RMB and a PE ratio of 9.02 [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend several major insurance companies, including China Life (H), Ping An (A/H), China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, New China Life, and China Property Insurance, while suggesting to pay attention to China Taiping [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance expectation relative to the market [7]. Core Insights - The company is planning to acquire the controlling stake or all equity of Ruineng Semiconductor through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, which is expected to enhance its automotive electronics business [4][7]. - The acquisition is anticipated to enrich the company's automotive product offerings and further solidify its position in the automotive electronics sector, providing comprehensive solutions to clients [7]. - The company is positioned to enter a new growth phase, supported by a robust incentive mechanism for core employees and strategic partnerships, particularly with Ningde Times [7]. - The demand for specialized integrated circuits is expected to grow, driven by advancements in defense information technology and commercial aerospace, which will benefit the company's FPGA and specialized AI chip segments [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5,511 million in 2024 to 12,209 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 31.5% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,179 million in 2025 to 3,495 million in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 56.8% in 2025 to 57.5% in 2027, indicating operational efficiency [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 39 in 2025 to 19 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [6].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 29 日 收盘价（元） 78.81 一年内最高/最低（元） 94.83/56.50 市净率 5.1 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.27 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 66,947 上证指数/深证成指 3,965.28/13,537.10 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 15.45 | | 资产负债率% | 27.02 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 850/849 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% 12-30 01-30 02-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 06-30 07-31 08-31 09-30 10-31 11-30 紫光国微 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A02 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Defense Military Index rising by 6% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [1][5]. - The report suggests that the military sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by accelerated order deliveries and improved performance expectations for the fourth quarter [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the quality and quantity of military capabilities, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [4]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in the military sector due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and rising demand for consumable military equipment [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on new combat equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [4]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense Military Index outperformed the market, with a 6% increase, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors [5]. - The average increase for the civilian-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Military Index is 88.65, indicating it is in the upper range historically, suggesting potential for further growth [13][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [13][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the paper and light industry sectors, highlighting high dividend safety margin assets and companies with strong growth potential [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high dividend safety margin assets in the packaging and home furnishing sectors, benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB and the expected decrease in paper procurement costs [2][4]. - It identifies key companies in the packaging sector such as Yongxin Co., Yutong Technology, Huawang Technology, and Meiyingsen, as well as home furnishing leaders like Kuka Home, Mousse, Oppein, and Sophia [2][4]. - The paper industry is expected to benefit from rising wood pulp prices and seasonal demand, with companies like Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and Bohui Paper being highlighted for their potential [2][4]. - The report also discusses the export sector, noting the impact of RMB appreciation and the importance of supply chain and brand expansion for companies like Jiangxin Home, Yongyi Co., Jiayi Co., and Zhongxin Co. [2][4]. Summary by Sections Packaging Sector - The packaging industry is characterized by a mature competitive landscape, with leading companies reducing capital expenditures and demonstrating advantages in overseas markets [5][6]. - Yongxin Co. is noted for its stable high dividend policy and strong performance in soft packaging and film business, with a dividend rate of 84% to 81% from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - Yutong Technology has expanded its global supply chain, enhancing its operational efficiency and increasing its dividend rate to 70% by 2025 [6]. - Huawang Technology is positioned well in the decorative paper market, with expectations of improved profitability due to limited new supply and rising demand [7]. - Meiyingsen is recognized for its strategic overseas expansion and high dividend yield, with a focus on emerging markets [8]. Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with a positive outlook driven by supportive real estate policies and improving consumer confidence [9][10]. - Companies like Kuka Home and Sophia are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for home renovation and the implementation of "old-for-new" policies [10][23]. - The report highlights the importance of retail capabilities and supply chain improvements for companies to enhance their market share and profitability [23][24]. Paper Industry - The paper industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand and pricing, supported by strong control over production by overseas pulp mills [11][13]. - Companies such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper are expected to benefit from the stabilization of pulp prices and improved supply-demand dynamics [11][13]. - The report notes that the industry has been at a low point for several years, but a mid-term recovery is expected as demand gradually increases [11][13]. Export Sector - The export sector is influenced by the global economic environment, with a focus on companies that are expanding their international presence and brand recognition [14][15]. - Jiangxin Home is noted for its innovative product offerings and strong growth in customer numbers, while Yongyi Co. is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for ergonomic chairs [15][16]. - Jiayi Co. is recognized for its strategic expansion in the insulated cup market, while Zhongxin Co. is highlighted for its growth potential in the pulp molding sector [16][17]. Pet Products Sector - The pet products sector is experiencing robust growth, with companies like Yiyi Co. and Yuanfei Pet benefiting from strong export performance and brand development [18]. - Yiyi Co. is expected to see significant revenue growth due to its acquisition strategy and strong sales performance [18]. - Yuanfei Pet is noted for its rapid growth in the domestic market and expansion of its product offerings [18]. Light Industry Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the light industry, with companies like Anfu Technology and Jianlin Home focusing on strategic acquisitions and technological advancements [19][20]. - Anfu Technology is expected to enhance its profitability through increased ownership in Nanfeng Battery and expansion into new business areas [19]. - Jianlin Home is transitioning towards smart robotics, leveraging its existing technology and market position [20].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 29, 2025, there were 24 new private placement projects in the last two weeks, a decrease of 2 projects compared to the previous period[5] - The approval rate for projects was 100%, with 10 projects approved by the review committee, a decrease of 17 projects from the previous period[19] - The number of projects in the normal review stage is 636, with 88 projects having received approval and registration, a decrease of 4 projects[5] Group 2: Fundraising and Investment Trends - The total fundraising amount for the 7 projects listed in the last two weeks reached 72.86 billion yuan, an increase of 364.92% compared to the previous period[33] - The average base discount rate for competitive projects increased to 11.81%, up by 2.01 percentage points[33] - The average premium rate for competitive projects was 8.31%, a decrease of 2.31 percentage points from the previous period[40] Group 3: Project Analysis - Lingyun Technology plans to raise up to 695 million yuan to acquire 100% of JAI, which has an estimated value of 103 million euros, reflecting a valuation increase rate of 680.15%[24][26] - Guangha Communication aims to raise up to 750 million yuan for the construction of a new generation intelligent scheduling system, with revenue growth exceeding 20% in 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025[27] Group 4: Market Risks - Risks include slower-than-expected review progress for private placements, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the pricing environment for private placements[5]