行 业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 09 月 04 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 板块报表仍在低位，优质企业筑底改善 看好 ——2025H1 房地产板块财报综述 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 25H1 板块营收下降，毛利率略升、费率升、减值占比下降，业绩大降、降幅收窄。 25H1 板块营收同比-11.6%，较 24 年+7.7pct，主要由于 22 年销售增速开始回落；从 房企结构来看营收增速：三线+10%>二线-10%>一线-20%。25H1 净利润同比- 145%，较 24 年+2365pct，各线房企业绩均值均出现亏损；多数房企业绩大幅下降但 降幅收窄源于结算偏弱、结转毛利率略升、费率提升、减值占比下降； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, highlighting investment opportunities driven by policy support and the beta characteristics of brokers in the context of low-risk interest rates and high household deposits [9][10]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector experienced a significant profit increase of 51% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 3.75% [1][4]. - Key revenue drivers included proprietary trading and brokerage services, with a notable contribution from wealth management and international business as future growth areas [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, 43 listed brokerages reported total assets of CNY 13.9 trillion, up 11% from the end of 2024, and net profit of CNY 1,001 billion, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase [5][7]. - The main revenue sources were proprietary trading and brokerage, with brokerage income rising 45% year-on-year [7][18]. 2. Capital Business - The report indicates a balanced structure in financial investments between equities and bonds, with a widening interest margin supported by declining funding costs [6][19]. - Proprietary trading income (excluding long-term stock investments) increased by 44% year-on-year, driven by a market recovery in Q2 2025 [18][24]. 3. Light Capital Business - The light capital business saw a revenue increase, with brokerage income reaching CNY 673 billion, up 45% year-on-year, while investment banking income rose by 18% [18][24]. - The asset management sector faced challenges, with a 3% decline in revenue due to fee reductions [18][24]. 4. Future Performance Drivers - Wealth management is expected to benefit from low deposit rates and an improved investment environment, leading to increased market participation by households [8][10]. - The international business segment is also poised for growth, with frequent capital increases in international subsidiaries and significant contributions to overall performance [8][10]. 5. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading firms within the brokerage sector, identifying winners based on competitive positioning, beta amplification, and alpha leadership [9][10]. - Specific recommendations include firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, which are expected to outperform due to their strong market positions and growth potential [9][10].

证 券 研 究 报 告 步入常态化发行期，申购收益率可观 ——2025年北交所新股申购8月报 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 王雨晴 A0230522010003 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 2025.09.04 主要内容 ◼ 2025年新股申购收益及收益率预测 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 (1) 2025年8月北交所发行新股5只，募资金额12.20亿；2025年1-8月累计发行新股12只，合计募资金额37.39亿。 (2) 8月5家企业上会通过、环比+1家；5家企业终止、环比+3家；4家企业注册、环比-2家；无新增受理企业。 (3) 截止至8月末，已过会未注册企业13家，拟募资26.10亿元；已注册未发行企业3家，拟募资9.29亿元。 (1) 8月共5只直接定价新股申购。首发PEttm中值11X，环比上月-12.06%；平均顶格申购金额1160万元。 (2) 单批新股冻结资金区间为5645.43-7408.33亿元，中值7315.54亿元、环比上月+17.67%；网上中签率中值0.04%。 ◼ 融资&审核 ◼ 申购&发行 ◼ 上市&收益 ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, recommending a focus on domestic leading manufacturers and companies involved in smart technology and state-owned enterprise reforms [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual themes of technology and state-owned enterprise reform as key drivers for investment opportunities in the automotive sector [4]. - It highlights specific companies such as BYD, Geely, and Xpeng as strong alpha manufacturers, while also pointing out the importance of smart technology trends represented by Huawei's HarmonyOS [4]. - The report suggests that companies with strong performance growth and capabilities in robotics or overseas expansion, such as Fuyao Glass and New Spring, are worth attention [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Key Company Performance - BYD's Q2 gross margin was significantly below expectations, but overseas sales are projected to reach 1 million units this year [5][6]. - Geely's overall performance is good, with a noticeable improvement in product structure, indicating potential for sustained profit [5][6]. - SAIC Motor shows significant growth in both domestic and overseas markets, aided by management optimization from Huawei [5][6]. - New Spring achieved profitability in Q2, driven by cost control and scale effects [5][6]. - Fuyao Glass exceeded expectations in Q2, with a projected revenue compound growth rate of over 18% [5][6]. - Ideal Auto's performance met expectations, but guidance for the second half is below market expectations [5][6]. - Long-term growth is anticipated for companies like Xingyu and Kobot, which are expanding their market presence and product offerings [7][8]. Financial Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key automotive companies, indicating projected net profit growth rates and price-to-earnings ratios for 2024 to 2026 [15][16]. - For instance, BYD is expected to have a net profit of 402.5 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 34% [15]. - SAIC Motor's projected net profit for 2025 is 114 billion, reflecting a significant recovery from previous years [15]. Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards high-end models and smart technology integration in the automotive sector, with companies like Great Wall and Xpeng focusing on premium offerings [12][14]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by price wars, but companies like Tuhu are showing resilience with a 20% growth in paid users [6][7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 从预测业绩出发构建高增速组合与稳健组合 证券分析师：杨俊文 A0230522070001 邓虎 A0230520070003 研究支持： 杨俊文 A0230522070001 2025.09.04 主要内容 1. 未来视角：已知当年业绩增速的股票组合表现 ◼ 在中证全指样本空间内，站在每年的4、8、10月底，筛选出总市值和过去一年日均成交金额排名前80%的样本，然后 假设已知当年的归母净利润增速，剔除去年利润为负的样本，剩余样本股按照当年利润增速从高到低进行十分组，每组 股票等权构建组合，2011/12/30~2025/4/30为回测区间。 2. 分域筛选当年预期利润高增速的股票池 3. 分域构建高增速组合与稳健组合 2 1.未来视角：已知当年利润增速的股票组合表现 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 3 1.未来视角：已知当年利润增速的股票组合表现 | | 1:根据当年利润增速十分组下前四组的分年度收益表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | G1 | G2 | G3 | G4 | | 2012 | 22.67% | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of China's manufacturing sector, indicating early signs of recovery amidst a complex global environment characterized by trade conflicts and geopolitical risks [2][9] - The analysis emphasizes the ongoing improvement in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, driven by domestic demand and advancements in artificial intelligence [2][9] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as AI applications, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy equipment, suggesting a potential shift in market focus towards undervalued sectors [2][9][10] Financial Indicators and Industry Performance - In Q2 2025, the report notes that key financial indicators improved in four or more industries, particularly in high-performing electronics and sectors experiencing bottoming out, such as defense, agriculture, and power equipment [9][10] - The profitability structure of A-shares is gradually concentrating in manufacturing and cyclical industries, with financial and real estate sectors contributing over 50% of total profits [9][10] - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector's capital expenditure has shown signs of recovery, with expectations for a clearer turning point in the economic cycle by 2026 [9][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing supply clearing process across various industries, with many sectors experiencing negative employment growth, indicating a reduction in supply [9][10] - It highlights that while some industries are facing high inventory levels, others are seeing a significant increase in order growth, particularly in defense electronics and renewable energy sectors [9][10] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policies are likely to continue driving supply clearing, with expectations for peak conditions in the second half of 2025 to 2026 [9][10] Impact of Tariffs on Overseas Performance - The report analyzes the performance of industries with significant overseas revenue, noting that despite increased tariff conflicts, many sectors have seen a rise in overseas income proportions [9][10] - It highlights that industries with high overseas revenue, such as machinery and telecommunications, have maintained or improved their profit margins compared to domestic averages [9][10] Dividend Trends and Valuation Framework - The report notes that mid-term dividend distributions are continuing, with banks and other sectors reporting substantial dividend payouts in the first half of 2025 [9][10] - It discusses the current valuation landscape, identifying sectors with low price-to-book (PB) and return on equity (ROE) as potential areas for investment, particularly in pharmaceuticals and AI applications [9][10]

Group 1 - The convertible bond market experienced strong momentum in August, with a notable acceleration compared to July, but faced a decline in late August due to adjustments in micro-cap stocks, leading to a "independent adjustment" in convertible bonds [4][10][35] - The adjustment in the convertible bond market has resulted in healthier overall valuations, with the current conversion premium rates for different types of convertible bonds indicating a significant decrease compared to historical levels [4][35][52] - The report suggests focusing on convertible bonds that have experienced significant adjustments, high dividend yields, and strong fundamentals, particularly in sectors with rich themes and emerging growth curves [4][35][39] Group 2 - The convertible bond market's excess returns in August were primarily driven by technology, high-priced, and low-premium rate styles, with high-priced and newly issued bonds being significant contributors to excess returns [39][42][46] - The market saw a notable decline in the median price of convertible bonds, dropping from 135 yuan to 130 yuan, with a significant decrease in the proportion of bonds priced above 130 yuan [46][49] - The report highlights that the adjustment in the convertible bond market has led to a significant decline in equity valuations, with conversion premium rates for different types of bonds showing a marked decrease [52][55]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the market's previous concerns regarding the company's risks and performance have been alleviated, indicating a clearer outlook for the bank's fundamentals and asset structure transformation [7][9]. - The bank's management has effectively addressed risks in key areas, leading to a significant reduction in non-performing loans, particularly in the real estate sector, with a 46% year-on-year decrease in new non-performing loans in the first half of 2025 [22][25]. - The bank is expected to achieve stable profit growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 1.7%, 4.8%, and 5.9% for 2025 to 2027, respectively [9][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating revenue is projected to be 210,831 million in 2023, with a slight increase to 212,493 million by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.13% [6]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 78,532 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.72% [6]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.37% in 2025, with a non-performing loan ratio stabilizing at around 1.07% [6]. Risk Management and Performance Improvement - The bank has effectively managed risks associated with real estate and local government financing platforms, reducing their exposure significantly from 10% of total assets in 2021 to approximately 7.5% in the first half of 2025 [22]. - The management team has demonstrated a commitment to improving operational quality, which has resulted in a positive turnaround in profit growth, with the first half of 2025 showing a profit increase ahead of expectations [32][33]. Dividend and Investment Appeal - The bank has a consistent history of increasing its dividend payout ratio, which is expected to reach 30.2% in 2024, making it attractive to long-term investors seeking stable returns [6][9]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is only 0.57, indicating that the bank is undervalued compared to its peers, which enhances its appeal to institutional investors [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [6] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 mid-year results, which met expectations, with a revenue of 15.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 9.2 billion yuan for H1 2025, which is 44% of the net profit for that period, and aims for a cumulative dividend payout ratio of at least 50% for the year 2025, exceeding the previous year's ratio of 41.42% [6] - A 240,000-ton expansion project for electrolytic aluminum is progressing steadily, with the company aiming to increase its annual production capacity from 1.16 million tons to 1.4 million tons [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 31.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.8% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.03 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 12.8% increase year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.08 yuan for 2025, with a gross margin of 23.2% [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 16.7% for 2025 [2] Market Data - The closing price of Tianshan Aluminum on September 3, 2025, was 10.49 yuan, with a market capitalization of 43.32 billion yuan [3] - The company has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 for 2025 [3] - The dividend yield is calculated at 3.81% based on the most recent dividend announcement [3]

Report Title - "The Arduous Waiting Period: A New Balance in the Bond Market under the Asset Allocation Mainline - Outlook for the Bond Market in September 2025" [1] Report Date - September 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2022, the transmission from broad credit to the fundamentals seems to be weakening. The stock - bond seesaw effect since 2025 may be driven by new logic: anti - involution has reversed the macro narrative since 2024, and the rise of the stock market and the improvement of expectations reinforce each other [5][108][165] - The stock - bond seesaw is just an appearance. The deeper reason is that in a low - interest - rate environment, residents' asset allocation behavior has changed substantially. Deposits and pure bonds have entered a low - return range, and funds are seeking more cost - effective alternative assets, increasing the demand for stock - bond hybrid products [8][113][165] - In 2025, the supply of long - duration government bonds has increased more significantly, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand and a steeper term spread [8][132][165] - Currently, the core issue is the lack of continuous buying power from allocation players, and trading players are mainly engaged in speculation [7][165] Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Bond Market Trend from January to Date and Its Macroeconomic Logic - **2025 Q1**: Tight funds and prominent bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction [16] - **2025 Q2**: Repeated tariff expectations, along with potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [18] - **2025 July - August**: Anti - involution expectations, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and fund diversion led to a bond market correction. In August, the term spread of treasury bonds expanded, and the duration strategy began to collapse. The credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds and medium - term notes first increased and then decreased [20][22][27] - **Summary**: Since the beginning of the year, long - term interest rates have repeatedly attempted to break through previous lows but failed, and the interest rate bottom has been rising (the bond YTM has shown an arc - bottom pattern since the beginning of the year) [4][39][48] 2. Understanding the Deviation among Funds, Certificates of Deposit (CDs), and the Bond Market - **6 - 8 months**: Overall, funds were loose to support bond issuance, stabilize the economy, and hedge the impact of the stock market on the bond market. After the double cuts in May, the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity net injection from January to August 2025 totaled 3.98 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding historical levels [52][55][100] - **September**: Both medium - and long - term liquidity and CD maturities are high. The first ten days may be an important window to observe the central bank's attitude. The central bank may conduct 3 - month outright reverse repurchases to hedge [68][98][100] - **Deviation since July**: Funds have been loose, but CD prices have remained rigid. The CD price has a seasonal pattern of bottoming out and rising in the third quarter. Rising stock market trading activity, increased net supply of government bonds, and other factors have contributed to this situation [69][88][95] - **CD Pressure Relief**: Focus on whether the central bank conducts 3 - month outright reverse repurchases in early September. Consider whether there will be another double cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter to relieve economic and bank liability pressure [98][100] 3. Revisiting Deposit Transfer and Fund Diversion Effects - **Traditional Logic of the Stock - Bond Seesaw**: In most periods, stocks and bonds show a seesaw relationship. The driving logic is the transmission from broad money to broad credit, with expectations of fundamental improvement leading to a rising stock market, rising interest rates, and narrowing credit spreads [103] - **Resident Wealth Transfer**: It is a stock logic. In a low - interest - rate environment, residents are re - allocating assets. The main destinations of deposit diversion in recent years are likely wealth management and insurance. Residents' direct entry into the stock market may still be in the early stage [109][113][120] - **Stock and Bond Financing Comparison**: In 2024, the supply and demand of stocks were weak, while in 2025, supply increased marginally, but demand increased more significantly. In 2024, the supply of bonds was large and demand was strong, but in 2025, supply continued to increase significantly while demand weakened [132][135][139] - **Role of Allocation Players**: Insurance companies have a weaker preference for the bond market and are more interested in high - dividend assets. They are waiting for better prices in the bond market. Rural commercial banks' bond - buying power has weakened, and the bond investment scale of some accounts has shrunk [140][147][154] - **Role of Trading Players**: Since July 2025, wealth management products have been the main buyers during the bond market adjustment, indicating that the liability side of wealth management may still be stable. Pure bond funds have performed poorly this year and have faced continuous redemption pressure [155][159][163] 4. How Much Risk Has the Bond Market Released? - **Adjustment since July**: The adjustment of long - term interest rates is due to the impact of anti - involution expectations on the bond market and the stock - bond re - balance caused by fund diversion. The widening of the term spread is essentially a correction of pessimistic expectations [12] - **Future Risks to Watch**: Expectations of rising inflation, instability of the liability side of wealth management and funds, and the impact of redemptions [12] - **Indicators to Monitor**: The trend of CDs, the entry strength of allocation players, and the performance of credit spreads. The bond market is still under pressure, and a cautious view is maintained. In September, the bond market may continue to be in an arduous waiting period, and attention should be paid to the structural widening pressure of credit spreads [11][12][100]