社会服务 上 市 公 司 2026 年 02 月 10 日 中国东方教育 (00667) —— 职教培训景气上行，运营效率持续提升 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 09 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 6.21 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9168.33 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.15/2.61 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 137.71 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,217.53 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8897 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -9% 91% 191% 291% 02/10 03/10 04/10 05/10 06/10 07/10 08/10 09/10 10/10 11/10 12/10 01/10 HSCEI 中国东方教育 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 职业技能培训景气提升，公司招生增长提速：大学低速扩招错配高中快速扩招，我们预计受高 考落榜生数量持续增加，高中毕业生职业技能培训市场将迎来持续景气提升。受 21 至 24 年 高中持续扩 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction materials industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][12]. Core Insights - Domestic cement prices are expected to show a trend of high prices followed by a decline, with an average price of 372.8 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 12.6 RMB/ton year-on-year. Cement production is projected to decline by 7.2% in 2025, with a gradual recovery in profitability anticipated in 2026 due to supply-side improvements [4]. - The glass sector continues to face pressure, with the average price of flat glass expected to drop to 1323.3 RMB/ton in 2025, a significant decrease of 383.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. The industry is entering a period of accelerated cold repairs, which may enhance profitability in the future [4]. - The fiberglass yarn market remains relatively stable, with an expected average price of 3866 RMB/ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 174 RMB/ton. The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is anticipated to grow rapidly, contributing positively to the sector's performance [4]. - Consumer building materials are expected to show strong performance, with companies like Sanke Tree and Han Gao Group maintaining excellent revenue and profit due to strong channel development and brand advantages [4]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The average cement price in 2025 is projected at 372.8 RMB/ton, down 12.6 RMB/ton from the previous year. The first quarter's average price is expected to be 400.8 RMB/ton, declining to 358.0 RMB/ton by the fourth quarter. Cement production is expected to decrease by 7.2% in 2025, with a recovery in profitability anticipated in 2026 due to supply-side improvements [4]. Glass Industry - The average price of flat glass is expected to be 1323.3 RMB/ton in 2025, a decrease of 383.4 RMB/ton year-on-year. The industry is entering a cold repair cycle, with daily melting capacity dropping below 150,000 tons. This may lead to improved profitability in the future [4]. Fiberglass Sector - The average price of fiberglass yarn is projected to be 3866 RMB/ton in 2025, an increase of 174 RMB/ton year-on-year. The demand for specialty electronic fabrics is expected to accelerate, contributing positively to the sector's performance [4]. Consumer Building Materials - Companies such as Sanke Tree and Han Gao Group are expected to perform strongly due to their robust channel development and brand advantages. Other companies in the sector are also expected to maintain good operational quality, with potential for significant performance recovery in 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving quarterly reports and those benefiting from supply-side adjustments. Recommended companies include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Tianshan Shares in the cement sector, as well as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology in the fiberglass sector. In consumer building materials, companies like Dongfang Yuhong and Kezhong Shares are highlighted for their strong performance [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The chemical macroeconomic outlook indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The dye, PVA, and vitamin sectors are experiencing upward trends, with price increases anticipated post-holiday, highlighting the importance of positioning in the spring chemical sector [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the textile, agricultural, export, and "anti-involution" sectors for investment opportunities [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Chemical Macro Outlook - Oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with tariff adjustments and economic improvements [2][3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a long-term bottom, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates export facility construction [2][3] Price Trends and Recommendations - Dye prices are expected to rise significantly, with companies like Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtu Co. recommended for investment [2][3] - PVA prices have increased from 9,530 CNY/ton to 10,244 CNY/ton, indicating further upward potential, with a focus on Anhui Wuhua [2][3] - Vitamin E prices are projected to rise post-holiday due to production halts during the Chinese New Year, with New Hope Liuhe recommended [2][3] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across four main chains: textile, agricultural, export, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [2][3] - Key companies to watch include: - Textile: LUXI Chemical, Tongkun Co., and Hengli Petrochemical - Agricultural: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and Yuntianhua - Export-related chemicals: Juhua Co., Wanhua Chemical, and leading titanium dioxide producers [2][3] Growth Focus - Emphasis on self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Dingsheng Co. highlighted [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on constructing multiple ETF portfolios, including macro industry, macro + momentum industry, core - satellite, and trinity style rotation portfolios, aiming to find better investment opportunities by combining macro factors, momentum factors, and style rotation [4][5]. - Different industries have different sensitivities to economic, liquidity, and credit factors. For example, traditional cycle industries are sensitive to the economy, TMT is sensitive to liquidity, and consumption is sensitive to credit [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Portfolio Construction Methods 3.1.1 Based on Macro Method - Calculate macro - sensitivities of broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs based on economic, liquidity, and credit variables. Combine with momentum indicators for complementary analysis [4]. - Traditional cycle industries are suitable for economic up - periods, TMT for weak - economy but loose - liquidity periods, and consumption for credit - expansion periods. State - owned enterprises and ESG - related themes have low sensitivities to liquidity and credit [4]. - Construct three ETF portfolios (macro industry, macro + momentum industry, and core - satellite) and adjust positions monthly [4]. 3.1.2 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio Construction - Build a medium - to - long - term style rotation model centered on macro - liquidity, and compare it with the CSI 300 index [5]. - Construct three types of models (growth/value rotation, market - cap, and quality models) by screening macro, fundamental, and market - sentiment factors. The model has 8 style - preference results [5]. - Select ETFs with high exposure to the target style, control industry exposure, and set allocation limits to get the final ETF allocation model [5]. 3.2 Macro Industry Portfolio - Select industry - themed ETFs with over 1 - year establishment and over 200 million current scale. Calculate sensitivity scores of economic, liquidity, and credit factors monthly, adjust scores according to the latest indicators, and sum them up. If liquidity and credit deviate significantly, remove the liquidity score. Select the top 6 industry - themed indices and corresponding largest - scale ETFs for equal - weight allocation [6][7]. - Currently, with falling economic leading indicators, loose liquidity, and tightened credit, the portfolio is biased towards TMT and consumption. The February positions are shown in Table 1 [8]. - The portfolio has large fluctuations and outperformed the benchmark significantly in January [11]. 3.3 Macro + Momentum Industry Portfolio - Combine macro and momentum methods to address the left - side nature of macro - based strategies (low win - rate but high odds). Use clustering to group industry - themed indices and select the highest - rising product in each group in the past 6 months for equal - weight allocation [12]. - The momentum - selected industries still have a high proportion of cyclical industries. The February positions are shown in Table 3 [16]. - The portfolio has performed well this year and outperformed the CSI 300 significantly in January [17]. 3.4 Core - Satellite Portfolio - Design a "core - satellite" portfolio with the CSI 300 as the core to address the high volatility and rapid industry rotation of industry - themed ETFs [19]. - Calculate macro - sensitivities for broad - based, industry - themed, and Smart Beta ETFs, construct three stock portfolios, and weight them at 50%, 30%, and 20% respectively [19]. - The current allocation of broad - based ETFs is biased towards the Sci - tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext. The portfolio has performed stably, outperforming the benchmark in most months except December, and had significant excess returns in January 2026 [23][24]. 3.5 Trinity Style Rotation ETF Portfolio - The model currently favors the small - cap growth - high - quality segment. The factor exposures and historical performance are shown in Table 7 [26]. - The February positions are shown in Table 9 [31]. - The portfolio has achieved certain excess returns, especially in some months such as August 2025 and January 2026 [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly for major players in the white goods sector, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2025 [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the "trade-in" policy and improvements in overseas production capacity, leading to enhanced profitability in the supply chain [2][5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1. **Dividend**: Major white and black appliance companies are characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth, providing a high margin of safety and significant elasticity in stock prices [6][7]. 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are transitioning into emerging tech fields such as robotics and semiconductor cooling, seeking cross-industry growth [7]. 3. **Export**: Recovery in export demand and sustained domestic sales of new products, particularly in the small appliance sector, are expected to drive growth [7]. Summary by Sections 1. White Goods and Components - In 2025, the air conditioning sector is projected to produce 195.37 million units, a 3% year-on-year decline, while sales are expected to reach 198.39 million units, down 1% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 1% [5][13]. - The average price of white goods is declining due to high base effects from the trade-in policy, with air conditioning prices dropping by 13% year-on-year [23][24]. 2. Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by real estate and trade-in policies, with online sales of range hoods and gas stoves increasing by 7.9% and 1.7% respectively in 2025 [33][34]. - Major companies like Boss Electric and Vatti are leveraging trade-in policies to boost sales, with Boss Electric maintaining a leading market share in range hoods [35][36]. 3. Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is seeing a revival due to the trade-in policy, with significant growth in cleaning appliances, although overall market consumption remains subdued [6][7]. - Companies like Roborock and Ecovacs are expected to benefit from high demand for new products, with projected revenue growth of 34% and 12% respectively in Q4 2025 [5][7]. 4. New Displays and Lighting - The emerging display sector is at a turning point, while the lighting industry is anticipated to see growth as it awaits market recovery [6][7]. - Companies like Hisense and OP Lighting are expected to experience revenue declines in Q4 2025, with projections of -10% and -2% respectively [6][7]. 5. Investment Highlights - The report recommends a combination of leading white goods companies such as Haier, Midea, and Gree, along with Hisense, as they are currently undervalued and offer stable growth prospects [6][7]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of component manufacturers adapting to new technologies and markets, with companies like Huaxiang and Sanhua expected to see significant growth in their respective sectors [7][29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the overall market [3][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in crude oil prices in Q4 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.1 per barrel, down 7.4% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with upstream operations facing pressure while downstream profitability is showing signs of improvement [3]. - The report forecasts a tightening supply-demand balance in the polyester sector, suggesting potential for improved market conditions [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In Q4 2025, Brent crude oil prices averaged $63.1 per barrel, with a range of $59-66 per barrel. Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted downwards by 325 CNY/ton and 340 CNY/ton respectively [3][4]. - Key petrochemical products showed varied price movements, with notable declines in prices for polyethylene and polypropylene, down 16% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [4]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differential for crude oil catalytic cracking increased to 1374 CNY/ton, up 12.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the differential for ethylene from naphtha decreased by 20.1% [5][6]. - The price differential for PX and PTA expanded, indicating improved margins in the polyester chain [5][6]. Company Performance Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies in the sector, predicting a net profit of 27 billion CNY for China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), down 16% year-on-year, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is expected to see a profit of 30 billion CNY, up 41% year-on-year [3][7]. - Other companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical are also highlighted, with expected profits of 1.7 billion CNY and 250 million CNY respectively [3][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [3]. - It also suggests maintaining a positive outlook on offshore oil service companies like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering, anticipating continued high demand in offshore capital expenditures [3].

研 究 专 题 新 股 发 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2026 年 02 月 10 日 扶优促新，定向开闸 ——关于优化再融资一揽子措施点评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 政策点评 相关研究 - ⚫ 事件： 2026 年 2 月 9 日，沪深北交易所推出优化再融 ...

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain stable or potentially improve its core targets due to cost reduction trends[3] - The first rocket recovery sea platform "Navigator" has been successfully delivered, enhancing recovery efficiency[9] - The commercial aerospace market is entering a new phase with significant bidding activities expected to drive growth in satellite manufacturing and launch services[13] Group 2: Sodium Battery - CATL has begun mass production of sodium-ion batteries, marking a significant advancement in the lithium-sodium transition[3] - The sodium battery technology is projected to achieve cost advantages, with a clear path for cost reduction expected by 2026[25] Group 3: Ugreen Technology - Ugreen Technology is rapidly expanding its overseas channels, with NAS products becoming a significant growth driver[3] - The NAS market is gaining traction due to increasing consumer data storage needs, with Ugreen capturing a growing market share[41] Group 4: Zhongkong Technology - Zhongkong Technology is experiencing a turnaround in performance, with AI applications being reassessed for their value[3] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors[3] Group 5: Yinlun Technology - Yinlun Technology is leveraging AI in energy management, with new product lines expected to outperform traditional business segments[53] - The company is focusing on digital energy thermal management, indicating a broad market potential[55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in crude oil prices in Q4 2025, with Brent crude averaging $63.1 per barrel, down 7.4% quarter-on-quarter and 14.7% year-on-year [3]. - The report anticipates a mixed performance across the petrochemical sector, with upstream performance under pressure while downstream sectors show signs of improvement [3]. - Key companies in the industry are expected to experience varied profit margins, with some facing significant declines while others show resilience [3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Brent crude oil price in Q4 2025 was $63.1 per barrel, down 7.5% from Q3 and 14.8% year-on-year [4]. - Key petrochemical products such as methanol and polypropylene saw price declines of 8.2% and 8.3% respectively in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 [4]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differential for crude oil catalytic cracking increased by 12.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching 1374 RMB/ton [5]. - The price differential for PX-Nafta increased by 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend for certain segments [6]. Company Performance Forecasts - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is projected to have a net profit of 27 billion RMB in Q4 2025, a decrease of 16% year-on-year [3]. - Sinopec is expected to face significant impairment pressures, with a projected net profit of only 500 million RMB, down 92% year-on-year [3]. - The report forecasts a net profit of 14 billion RMB for Satellite Chemical, reflecting a 41% decline year-on-year but a 38% increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [3]. - It suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [3]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies, recommending firms like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering for their strong performance outlook [3].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金属价格强势突破，有色板块景气 持续 看好 ——有色金属行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 有色金属 - ⚫ 贵金属： 1 月美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表示通胀的上行风险 和就业的下行风险都已减弱；没有太多数据表明外国投资者正在对其美元资产进行大规模对冲。特朗普 30 日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需 ...