Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of adaptability in the face of global uncertainties, highlighting the need for proactive policy-making during the "Fifteen Five" period from 2026 to 2030 [2] - It identifies key areas of focus for the upcoming period, including technological self-reliance, high-level openness, regional development, and national defense [2] Group 1: Technological Development - The report states that China aims to significantly enhance its level of technological self-reliance, which is seen as a strategic support for national development [2] - It mentions the six key future manufacturing directions outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, including future materials and future health [2] Group 2: Economic Policy and Openness - The report discusses the acceleration of high-level openness, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a multilateral trade system and expanding international cooperation [2] - It highlights the need for a strong domestic market and improved income distribution to support economic growth [2] Group 3: Regional Development and Coordination - The report connects regional development strategies with anti-involution policies, focusing on optimizing productivity layout and enhancing regional growth [2] - It stresses the importance of combining investments in goods and people to create new demand and supply [2] Group 4: National Defense and Security - The report outlines the government's commitment to strengthening national defense through various initiatives, including the construction of a strong manufacturing base and high-level technological self-reliance [2] - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to national security, integrating defense with economic and social development [2] Group 5: Market Implications - The long-term significance of the "Fifteen Five" policy layout is highlighted, suggesting that it provides a clearer path for China's economic transformation [2] - The report indicates that the capital market may respond positively to the structured description of transformation paths, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and consumption services [2]

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to "concentrate efforts on doing our own things well" and to continue writing new chapters of rapid economic development and long-term social stability[4] - The economic situation is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with an increasing number of unpredictable factors[4] - The goal for the year is to achieve a 5% economic growth rate, supported by nearly 300 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits[5] Industrial Development - The meeting highlighted the importance of building a modern industrial system and maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing[6] - Emphasis was placed on the integration of technology innovation into industrial practices, promoting collaboration between traditional and emerging industries[6] - The focus on enhancing domestic circulation and breaking down barriers to a unified national market was reiterated[6] Technological Advancement - The meeting called for accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and strengthening the role of new productive forces[7] - It proposed a coordinated development of education, technology, and talent, along with advancing digital China initiatives[7] Economic Reform and Social Welfare - Economic system reform was positioned as a key priority, with a focus on improving macroeconomic governance[8] - The meeting underscored the commitment to common prosperity, emphasizing employment, income, and housing as critical areas[8] Green Development - The meeting proposed accelerating comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, with a focus on achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality[9] - It emphasized the importance of building a new energy system and enhancing ecological safety[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China with a target price of HKD 22.5, indicating a potential upside of 22% [1][6]. Core Insights - The gaming industry shows resilience, with Sands China's market share in the mass gaming segment increasing in Q3 2025. The company reported net revenue of USD 1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [1][6]. - The overall gaming gross revenue in Macau grew by 13% year-on-year in Q3, recovering to 88% of 2019 levels, driven by limited supply and high-end customer demand [1][6]. Summary by Sections Sands China Q3 2025 Performance - Sands China achieved net revenue of USD 1.9 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of USD 600 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7%. The performance is 79% of the 2019 levels, aligning with expectations [1][6]. - The company maintains earnings per share forecasts of USD 0.13 for 2025, USD 0.16 for 2026, and USD 0.19 for 2027 [1][6]. Market Share and Revenue Growth - Sands China's mass gaming revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, with high-end and regular mass gaming segments growing by 6% and 19%, respectively, recovering to 111% and 99% of 2019 levels [2][7]. - The company's market share in the mass gaming segment rose by 1.4 percentage points to 25.4%, attributed to aggressive customer reinvestment initiatives since mid-Q2 [2][7]. Industry Overview - The gaming industry's gross revenue in Macau is showing resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 13% in Q3, primarily driven by VIP and high-end mass market customers [1][6]. - The report highlights that the recovery in gaming revenue is supported by limited supply and the resurgence of events such as concerts [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - Recent nationwide temperature drops have boosted sales, particularly for winter apparel, with significant growth in sales of women's down jackets and men's vests during the pre-sale period [8] - The company expects steady growth in performance, maintaining a double-digit growth guidance for the year, with a projected revenue increase of 10% and profit growth exceeding revenue growth [8] - The company has a consistent dividend payout ratio above 80%, with an estimated dividend yield of around 6% for FY26 [8] - The successful debut of the "Master Puff" collection at Paris Fashion Week enhances the company's global brand influence [8] - The appointment of renowned designer Kim Jones is expected to elevate product quality and drive high-end market penetration [8] - The company has established a strong consumer recognition in the down jacket sector and is actively expanding into outdoor and functional apparel markets [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 23,214 million RMB - FY2025: 25,902 million RMB - FY2026E: 28,465 million RMB - FY2027E: 31,272 million RMB - FY2028E: 34,210 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 38% for FY2024, 12% for FY2025, and gradually decreasing to 9% by FY2028 [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2024: 3,074 million RMB - FY2025: 3,514 million RMB - FY2026E: 3,899 million RMB - FY2027E: 4,340 million RMB - FY2028E: 4,754 million RMB - The projected net profit growth rates are 44% for FY2024, 14% for FY2025, and stabilizing around 10% by FY2028 [6][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company has confirmed a trend of increasing order volume, indicating a potential uplift in growth trajectory. The Q3 2025 results showed a revenue of 425 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit of 16.66 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 209% [8][13] - The company is positioned to benefit from the restructuring of supply chains by international healthcare groups and the upgrade of healthcare materials, which presents substantial market opportunities [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 1,849 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.5%. The net profit for the same year is expected to reach 60 million yuan, representing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 119.6% [6] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 is reported at 16.5%, with a net profit margin of 3.3%. The gross margin for Q3 2025 improved to 18.7%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [15][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.18 yuan, with projected PE ratios of 48, 21, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][8]

宏 观 研 究 四中全会精神学习理解 国 内 经 济 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 (8621)23297818× jiadx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 10 月 23 日 续写奇迹新篇章 ——四中全会精神学习理解 事件：中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。 一、全会强调"集中力量办好自己的事"，"续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章 经济形势研判方面，本次会议指出"我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期"， 同时着重强调，要"勇于面对风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验"。相较于十九届五中全会，本次会议更加突出 我国经济长期向好的支撑条件、基本趋势与制度优势，并明确提出要"以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战， 集中力量办好自己的事，续写经济快 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipbuilding industry, highlighting a reversal of negative factors and the initiation of a new upward trend [2]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector has experienced a comprehensive reversal of three major negative factors: policy, exchange rates, and ship prices, which have shifted from negative to positive influences [4][9]. - The performance of China Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. (CSIC) for Q3 2025 shows a significant increase in net profit, with a reported range of CNY 5.55 billion to CNY 6.15 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 104% to 126% [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the market, with the current market value of Chinese shipbuilding companies at historical lows, suggesting a possible restoration to historical averages [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipbuilding Industry Chain Core Changes - The report outlines the core changes in the shipbuilding industry chain, indicating a shift in market dynamics and pricing structures [8]. 2. September Shipbuilding Market Update - As of September 2025, the newbuilding price index decreased by 0.37%, while the secondhand price index increased by 0.72%, indicating a divergence in market trends [42][46]. - The global shipbuilding order book remains stable at 400 million DWT, with container ships leading in new orders [52][53]. 3. High-Value Orders and CSIC Order Overview - High-value orders are being delivered, and the report provides a detailed overview of orders from CSIC, highlighting the company's strong market position [8][37]. 4. Impact of U.S. Port Fees - The report discusses the implications of U.S. port fees on Chinese shipowners, noting that the fees are significantly higher than current freight rates, making it challenging for affected vessels to absorb these costs [25][26]. - The analysis includes a breakdown of the types of vessels affected by the U.S. port fee policies, emphasizing the limited number of U.S.-owned and U.S.-flagged vessels in the global fleet [21][24]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential surge in new shipbuilding orders as secondhand prices rise, encouraging shipowners to invest in new vessels [37][38]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the ongoing negotiations between China and the U.S. regarding shipping policies and fees, which could significantly impact the industry [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipping decarbonization sector, emphasizing the importance of biofuels, RNG, and green methanol as key areas for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The shipping industry is entering a critical phase of decarbonization, driven by frequent policies from the IMO and the EU. The global shipping fuel consumption is approximately 300 million tons, corresponding to carbon emissions exceeding 1 billion tons, with the EU accounting for about 18% of this [3][8]. - The demand for low-carbon fuels is expected to outstrip supply in the short term, with significant compliance costs driving the need for zero or near-zero emissions fuels (ZNZ) [3][36]. - Biofuels are identified as a core measure for existing vessels, with a notable increase in biofuel bunkering at ports like Singapore [3][36]. - The report highlights the potential for biogas, particularly RNG, to significantly reduce emissions and improve energy security, with ambitious production targets set for 2030 in both China and the EU [3][36]. - Green methanol is projected to see rapid growth in demand, with a current estimate of 406 methanol vessels corresponding to a demand exceeding 800,000 tons [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Decarbonization Policies - The report outlines the increasing frequency of decarbonization policies from the IMO and the EU, marking a significant acceleration in the implementation of these measures [3][11][18]. 2. Low-Carbon Fuel Demand - There is a broad demand space for low-carbon fuels, with a short-term supply shortage anticipated. The report notes that the compliance costs associated with EU regulations are higher than those of the IMO, which will further stimulate demand for low-carbon fuels [3][36]. 3. Biofuels - Biofuels are highlighted as a critical decarbonization measure for existing vessels, with a significant increase in biofuel bunkering observed at ports like Singapore. The global production of biodiesel is approximately 52 million tons, with expectations for increased usage in shipping as electric vehicles proliferate [3][36]. 4. Biogas - The report emphasizes the growing demand for LNG vessels and the potential for RNG to drive significant growth in the sector, supported by a green premium that could lead to an industry explosion [3][36]. 5. Green Methanol - The report notes a rapid increase in methanol vessels, with a projected demand of over 800,000 tons. However, the global production capacity for green methanol is expected to be only 1.24 million tons by the end of 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3][36]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in biofuels, RNG, and green methanol production, including notable firms such as卓越新能, 山高环能, 维尔利, and 中国天楹, among others [3][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the report on China Jushi (600176) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's earnings continue to recover, with further consolidation of price recovery results. The performance in the third quarter of 2025 aligns with expectations, showing significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [7] - The glass fiber industry experienced a price decline in Q3 2025, but China Jushi is expected to outperform the industry due to its product structure advantages. The company is likely to see a smaller decline in profit per ton compared to the industry average [7] - The report anticipates further price increases in Q4 2025, supported by industry initiatives to combat "involution" competition, which may enhance profitability for leading companies like China Jushi [7] - The company is progressing with technological upgrades to enhance cost advantages, with a significant investment planned to expand production capacity [7] - China Jushi is accelerating its layout in specialty fabrics, driven by high demand in the PCB sector, positioning itself for potential breakthroughs in this area [7] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady increase in net profit, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios suggesting a favorable valuation [7] Financial Data Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 139.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.68 billion yuan, up 67.5% year-on-year [7] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 181.78 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 33.49 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 37.0% [6][8] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 25.0% in 2024 to 34.1% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [6]

Group 1: Risk Assessment - The core of risk assessment for Chinese enterprises going abroad lies in evaluating the potential scale of losses and the probability of occurrence, especially in light of "gray rhino" events like resource nationalization in Latin America[3] - Dynamic adjustments in host country tariff policies and sudden geopolitical events can lead to substantial losses for enterprises[10] - The risks covered by overseas investment insurance include expropriation, currency exchange restrictions, and political violence, with compensation ratios up to 95%[19] Group 2: Market Strategy - Capacity transfer should not be viewed as a one-time solution to tariff barriers, as evidenced by the shifting strategies of Chinese photovoltaic companies in response to U.S. investigations[3] - The strategy of "exchanging price for volume" may not be sustainable in the long term, as seen in the Thai market where price cuts led to reduced profit margins and brand positioning issues for Chinese EV manufacturers[3] - Chinese enterprises should focus on enhancing product quality and brand strength to build long-term competitiveness in overseas markets[36] Group 3: New Challenges - The "Five Questions" framework by Shenwan Hongyuan systematically analyzes how Chinese enterprises can navigate overseas markets[7] - The Thai government's EV policies require local production commitments for subsidies, increasing competition among manufacturers[26] - The increasing competition in the Thai automotive market necessitates a cautious approach to pricing strategies to avoid detrimental price wars[34]