证 券 研 究 报 告 科技制造引领，寻找景气成长 ——北交所25年二季报总结 2025.09.02 证券分析师：刘靖 A0230512070005 研究支持： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 主要内容 2 ◼ 北证二季报盈利压力再现。截至25Q2，北证单季营收增速+4.9%、环比-0.4pct，单季归母净利润增速-16.6%、环比 -8.8pct，ROEttm达+6.0%、环比-0.1pct；拆分ROE来看，25Q2，北证资产周转率TTM达62.6%、环比+0.5pct， 北证销售净利率TTM达5.5%、环比-0.2pct。其中，盈利压力主要源于两方面，1）Q2海外扰动影响显现，我国对美 出口增速大幅下滑，25Q2，北证出口50%以上企业单季扣非净利润增速转负、达-4.4%，环比-21.0pct。2）供给压 力、北证固定资产增速达历史高位，25Q2，北证固定资产增速达+30.2%、环比+2.0pct，处于历史高位，对北证盈 利能力形成压力，25Q2北证毛利率TTM达22.4%、环比-0.3pct，下滑幅度高于其他板块。展望后续，固定资产增速 的拐点有望在下半年出现，关注北证供给优化后的盈利弹性，截至2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuxi Biologics [5][17][28] Core Insights - Wuxi Biologics reported a revenue of Rmb 9.95 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and a net profit of Rmb 2.34 billion, which is a 56.1% increase year-on-year [8][14] - The adjusted net profit reached Rmb 2.39 billion, reflecting a 6.2% year-on-year growth, aligning with expectations [8][14] - The blended gross margin increased by 3.7 percentage points to 42.7%, while the adjusted net profit margin rose by 1.2 percentage points to 45.6% [8][14] Revenue Breakdown - Pre-IND service revenue grew by 35.2% year-on-year to Rmb 4.15 billion in the first half of 2025 [9][15] - Revenue from early-phase projects (Phase I & II) declined by 29.7% year-on-year, primarily due to large projects moving to later stages [9][15] - Revenue from Phase III and commercial projects increased by 24.9% year-on-year [9][15] - Revenue from the US market grew by 20.1%, accounting for 60.5% of total revenue, while revenue from Europe and China increased by 5.7% and decreased by 8.5%, respectively [9][15] Order Backlog - The total backlog reached US$ 20.4 billion, a 1.2% year-on-year increase, including a service backlog of US$ 11.4 billion (down 13% year-on-year) and potential milestone fees backlog of US$ 9.0 billion (up 27% year-on-year) [9][15] - The backlog within three years increased by 16% year-on-year to US$ 4.2 billion, representing 21% of the total backlog [9][15] Project Pipeline - The number of new projects added in the first half of 2025 was 86, with over 50% from the US [10][16] - The total number of integrated projects reached 864, including 67 Phase III and 24 commercial projects, indicating potential future revenue growth [10][16] Financial Forecasts - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to Rmb 4.90 billion and Rmb 5.50 billion, respectively, with a new forecast of Rmb 6.34 billion for 2027 [10][17] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are Rmb 21.38 billion, Rmb 24.64 billion, and Rmb 28.57 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.49%, 15.23%, and 15.95% [12][19]

Demand - External demand is expected to perform better than internal demand, with August exports projected to decline by 5.1% due to high base effects and tariff impacts, but the pressure is manageable due to improved external demand and market share gains[1][12] - Domestic consumption and manufacturing investment are expected to weaken, with retail sales projected to grow by only 4.4% year-on-year in August, influenced by limited use of subsidy funds[1][24] Supply - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating sustained production activity, particularly in export-oriented sectors[3][42] - Industrial output is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by resilient indicators in the export chain, such as a 3.8 percentage point increase in high furnace operation rates[4][51] Inflation - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show limited year-on-year improvement of -2.9% in August, despite rising commodity prices, due to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors[5][64] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year in August, driven by weak food prices and a high youth unemployment rate affecting rental prices[6][68]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability in Q2 2025, driven by a decrease in oil and coal prices, which has alleviated cost pressures [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong demand trend post-holiday, with inventory levels decreasing and a significant recovery in profitability across various sectors within the chemical industry [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in demand due to improved liquidity and supportive government policies, despite external challenges [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical sector saw a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year, reaching 548.3 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 5% to 35.5 billion yuan [25][26]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was reported at 17.9%, with a slight improvement from the previous quarter [27][30]. 2. Profit Recovery in Q2 2025 - The report notes that the chemical industry is in a phase of recovery, with various sub-sectors showing significant improvements in profitability, particularly in agriculture-related chemicals and fluorochemicals [4][5]. - The report identifies key sectors such as pesticides, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers as having notable profit increases, while sectors like organic silicon and soda ash faced declines [4][5]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: textile supply chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Huafu Chemical, Yunnan Yuntianhua, and Wanhu Chemical, which are positioned well within their respective markets [5][6]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is improving, with the chemical index rising by 23.89% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming other indices [13][15]. - The report also highlights that the supply side is stabilizing, with capital expenditures nearing their peak and a reduction in ongoing projects, which is expected to lead to a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics [6][7].

上 市 公 司 商贸零售 2025 年 09 月 02 日 豫园股份 (600655) ——黄金珠宝业务修复，文化出海提速 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 6.24 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.03/4.88 | | 市净率 | 0.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.04 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 24,273 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,875.53/12,828.95 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.00 | | 资产负债率% | 68.18 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,897/3,890 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 投资要点： 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-02 10-02 11-02 12-02 01-02 02-02 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady business expansion and multi-industry collaboration, which is expected to support long-term growth [1] - The company reported a slight miss in earnings expectations for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 1.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 0.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% [7] - The company is focusing on the synergistic development of its restaurant, hotel, and food businesses, with ongoing expansion and upgrades to existing locations [7] - The company is leveraging digital upgrades and external collaborations to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [7] - Despite rising expansion costs and a challenging consumer environment, the company is expected to return to a growth trajectory driven by the recovery of the wedding banquet market [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.927 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.9% [6] - Net profit forecast for 2025 is 0.189 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 88.8% [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 21.8% in 2025, 23.3% in 2026, and 24.3% in 2027 [6] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 7.9% in 2025 to 13.2% in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 30 for 2025, 19 for 2026, and 14 for 2027 [6]

Demand - In August, external demand is expected to outperform internal demand, with exports projected to decline by 5.1% due to high base effects and tariff impacts, but the pressure is manageable due to improving external demand and market share gains[1] - Domestic consumption and manufacturing investment are expected to weaken, with retail sales projected to grow by only 4.4% year-on-year, influenced by limited use of subsidy funds[1][27] - High-frequency indicators show that retail sales of passenger cars and white goods in August increased by only 0.8% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively[27] Supply - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating sustained production activity, with the production index increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%[3][45] - Industries with high external demand, such as textiles and specialized equipment, showed significant production index increases of 23.6 percentage points to 57.1% and 8.6 percentage points to 63.9%, respectively[49] - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year in August, supported by resilient indicators in the export chain[4][54] Inflation - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to show limited year-on-year improvement at -2.9%, despite rising commodity prices and a low base effect, with the main raw material purchase price index increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 53.3%[5][61] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year in August, constrained by weak food prices and downstream PPI[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit are under pressure, but overseas business is experiencing growth [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the impact of local government debt and a slowdown in industry investment [6] - The company's mineral resources business is expected to drive a return to valuation recovery [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 1,156,734 million, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be 25,157 million, down 9.8% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 9.6% [5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -796.3 million for the first half of 2025, an increase in cash outflow by 103 million year-on-year [6] - The company’s infrastructure construction revenue for the first half of 2025 was 436.2 billion, down 7.78% year-on-year [6] - The company’s overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was 36.97 billion, up 8.34% year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway [2][7][17] Core Views - The company's performance slightly underperformed expectations due to changes in the dividend cycle of Jiangsu Bank, with a reported revenue of RMB 9.406 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [7] - The toll revenue for H1 2025 showed a stable increase, amounting to approximately RMB 4.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1.65% [7] - The ongoing expansion projects are expected to significantly improve regional traffic flow, with the completion of key infrastructure projects by the end of 2025 and mid-2026 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 15.192 billion - 2024: RMB 23.198 billion - 2025E: RMB 23.935 billion - 2026E: RMB 24.730 billion - 2027E: RMB 25.436 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 15% for 2023, 53% for 2024, and 3.2% for 2025E [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 4.413 billion - 2024: RMB 4.947 billion - 2025E: RMB 5.447 billion - 2026E: RMB 5.790 billion - 2027E: RMB 6.049 billion - The projected PE ratios are 10 for 2023, 9 for 2024, and 8 for 2025E [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yunda Holdings [1] Core Views - Yunda Holdings reported a revenue of 24.83 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 49.19% to 529 million yuan, which was below expectations [6] - The company has been focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, with a notable reduction in sorting and transportation costs per package, indicating effective cost management [6] - Despite the pressure on profits due to intensified competition in the express delivery sector, there is optimism for profit recovery in the second half of 2025 as the company continues to enhance its operational efficiency and network collaboration [6] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 1.51 billion, 1.71 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.0% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for Yunda Holdings are as follows: 52.03 billion yuan in 2025, 54.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 59.06 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.2%, 5.6%, and 7.5% respectively [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 7.1% in 2025, with a gradual improvement to 7.4% by 2027 [5] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 7.1% in 2025, increasing to 7.9% by 2027 [5]