行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 21 日 冷空气影响仍存，成本支撑下供给 预计收紧，预计煤价有望企稳 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.13-2025.12.20） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 12 月 19 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 506、600、703 元/吨，均环比下跌 42 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 163.96 万吨，环比上周减少 17.5 万 吨，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, indicating that the sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 0.2% increase in the home appliance index compared to a 0.3% decrease in the CSI 300 index [4][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with leading companies like Zhejiang Meida, Aojiahua, and Biyi Co. showing significant gains, while companies like Lek Electric and Huaxiang Co. are facing declines [4][7]. - The acquisition of Jiamei Packaging by the actual controller of Chasing Technology for 2.282 billion yuan is a notable industry development, with commitments for stable profit growth [10]. - iRobot, a leading global brand in robotic vacuum cleaners, has filed for bankruptcy protection and is expected to be acquired by Shenzhen Shanjun Company, highlighting competitive pressures from Chinese firms [11]. - November sales data for major appliances show significant declines in both volume and revenue, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all experiencing substantial drops [35][37][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 0.2% increase in the sector index against a 0.3% decline in the CSI 300 index [4][5]. - Key companies leading the gains include Zhejiang Meida (up 12.2%), Aojiahua (up 8.1%), and Biyi Co. (up 4.1%), while Lek Electric (-10.9%), Huaxiang Co. (-4.7%), and Sanhua Intelligent Control (-3.5%) faced declines [4][7]. Industry Dynamics - Jiamei Packaging was acquired for 2.282 billion yuan, with commitments for a minimum net profit of 1.2 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [10]. - iRobot's bankruptcy highlights the competitive landscape, with its revenue of $146 million in Q3 2025 and a loss of $22 million, alongside a cash reserve of only $25 million [11]. Sales Data Observations - November data shows a significant decline in sales for major appliances: air conditioners down 47.4% in volume and 55.7% in revenue, refrigerators down 44.6% in volume and 51.7% in revenue, and washing machines down 42.0% in volume and 50.0% in revenue [35][37][40]. - The average prices for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines have also decreased, indicating a challenging market environment [35][37][40].

证 券 研 究 报 告 科技行业基金：从投资能力分析到基金经理画像 ——金融产品每周见20251221 证券分析师：蒋辛 A0230521080002 邓虎 A0230520070003 奚佳诚 A0230523070004 白皓天 A0230525070001 联系人： 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 2025.12.21 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 基于基金持仓，我们可以将科技创新行业基金分类为5类：1）科技+卫星；2）细分赛道：以AI相关子赛道为主；3）科技轮动；4）科技 均衡；5）板块轮动。大部分基金经理采用的策略为"细分赛道"与"科技+卫星" ，采用"板块轮动"策略的基金经理较少。 ◼ 科技创新行业基金的3大整体投资能力分析：1）与板块指数相比，科技创新行业基金表现略弱，与样本科技仓位不足有关；2）相对擅长 选股的行业：电子、通信、传媒；相对不擅长的行业：计算机；3）对比与全行业基金所选的科技股，科技创新行业基金的基金经理具备 更强的科技股选股能力。 ◼ 7大维度对比不同风格特征的医药行业基金：1）高换 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail industry, indicating a favorable investment environment supported by multiple policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [2][5]. Core Insights - The retail index increased by 6.66% from December 15 to December 19, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.94 percentage points, ranking first among Shenwan's primary industries [2][22]. - A series of policies have been implemented to promote domestic circulation and the construction of a domestic demand system, positioning the retail sector as a key focus for nurturing domestic demand [5][6]. - The retail sector is expected to benefit from systematic support for quality and service transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with core companies likely to see earnings inflection points ahead of expectations [2][5]. - Offline retail formats are experiencing stable growth, with significant improvements in same-store sales due to the adoption of the "Fat Transformation" model [9][11]. - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, below market expectations, influenced by high base effects from previous policies [12][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views of the Week - Multiple policies are being coordinated to advance the construction of a domestic demand system, with offline retail formats continuing to recover [5][6]. - The retail sector is identified as a critical area for fostering domestic demand through innovative development [5][6]. 2. Market Performance - The retail index's performance of +6.66% positions it as the top performer among industries, while the social service index increased by 2.66% [22][23]. - Key stocks in the retail sector saw significant gains, with Baida Group up by 51.60%, Lihua Shares by 31.33%, and Shanghai Jiubai by 30.47% [25][34]. 3. Policy Developments - Recent policies focus on enhancing domestic demand and consumer spending, with specific measures to support the retail sector [6][19]. - The "Fat Transformation" model is being adopted by major retail companies to improve operational efficiency and profitability [9][10]. 4. Consumer Trends - The online retail growth rate has slowed due to the pre-emptive nature of the Double Eleven shopping festival, while offline retail is accelerating its transformation [14][19]. - The service retail sector continues to show robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in the service production index [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for high-end liquor companies and recommends several key stocks in the food and beverage sector [6][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative for economic stability and security, with government agencies prioritizing this in 2026 [6][8]. - Despite recent price fluctuations in high-end liquor, the report anticipates a recovery in the sector, projecting a potential turning point in fundamentals by Q3 2026 [6][8]. - The report identifies systemic opportunities in consumer goods, particularly in the food sector, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.05% increase last week, with the liquor segment declining by 0.58% [5]. - The report ranks the food and beverage sector 13th among 31 sub-industries in terms of performance [5]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Segments - The report highlights the recent price movements of key liquor brands, including Moutai and Wuliangye, with Moutai's bottle price increasing by 45 RMB to 1545 RMB [7][30]. - Wuliangye is focusing on optimizing its product matrix and channel strategies to enhance long-term growth [7]. 3. Industry Matters - The report discusses the expected improvement in the supply-demand dynamics of the dairy industry in 2026, recommending stocks like Yili and New Hope Dairy [8][9]. - It also notes the high dividend yield of Hai Tian Wei Ye, projecting a dividend payout of 17.54 billion RMB [9][26]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 20.10x, with a premium rate of 24% [30]. - The liquor segment's dynamic PE stands at 18.49x, with a premium rate of 14% [30].

新 三 板 研 究 2025 年 12 月 21 日 主题活跃成交回升，关注蘅东光申 购 ——北交所策略周报（20251215-20251221） 本周策略观点： 北交所新股： 本周市场行情： ⚫ 本周新挂牌 2 家，摘牌 3 家，周新增计划融资 0.52 亿元，完成融资 3.14 亿元。 风险提示： ⚫ 个股业绩季度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230525090003 wangbh@swsresearch.com 研究支持 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 联系人 新三板动态： 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 专 题 研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a restructuring in the spandex sector, with a potential upward trend in market conditions. The EU has decided not to impose anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires, which does not alter the competitive advantages for companies expanding overseas [3][4]. - The report highlights the macroeconomic conditions affecting the chemical sector, including stable oil prices, easing pressures in the coal market, and potential reductions in natural gas import costs due to increased export facility construction in the U.S. [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the spandex, tire, and agricultural chemical sectors, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and SaiLun Tire [3][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Judgment - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with global economic improvements. Brent oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - Coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export infrastructure [3][4]. Spandex Industry Outlook - The spandex industry is currently operating at an 84% utilization rate, with a significant price gap remaining at historical lows. The report anticipates a recovery in market conditions as outdated capacities are phased out [3][4]. - Companies to watch include Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Taihe New Materials [3][4]. Tire Industry Insights - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires is seen as a positive for companies like Sailun Tire and Zhongce Rubber, as it allows for safer procurement from Southeast Asia or overseas bases [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of global supply chain strategies in light of changing trade barriers [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across various chemical sectors, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and export-oriented products, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [3][4]. - Key materials for growth are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies suggested for each category [3][4].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

证 券 研 究 报 告 美国弱通胀+日央行鸽派加息，流动性担忧缓解 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251213-20251219) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.21 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251212-20251219) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦美联储政策走向的博弈，美联储此前的降息与扩表操作引发通胀反弹的担忧，而 11 月核心 CPI 同比上 涨 2.6% 创 2021 年以来新低，又推动市场升温 2026 年更早降息的押注，加上本周五日本央行鸽派加息，全球流动性担忧缓解，市场风险偏好先下后上。1）固收方面，10Y美 债收益率录得4.16%，本周下降3BPs，美元指数上涨0.32%，当前点位为98.7；2）权益方面，本周阿根廷、越南、欧洲股市上涨较多，而科创板、恒生指数则出现下跌，韩国、 日本股市跌幅较大；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨1.25%，在俄乌 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific sectors with high and low valuation percentiles [2][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the A-share market is at historical high percentiles, with the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) PE at 21.1x and PB at 1.8x, placing it at the 77th and 39th percentiles historically [2][6]. - The report identifies sectors with PE valuations above the 85th percentile, including Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services, while sectors like Medical Services are noted for being below the 15th percentile in both PE and PB valuations [2][8]. Industry Valuation Comparison - The report provides a detailed comparison of various indices and sectors, highlighting their PE and PB ratios along with their historical percentiles: - CSI 500 PE at 32.6x (61st percentile) and PB at 2.2x (46th percentile) [2][6]. - The ChiNext Index PE at 39.9x (32nd percentile) and PB at 5.4x (61st percentile) [2][6]. - Real Estate sector PE at 58.9x (94th percentile) and PB at 6.8x (9th percentile) [8]. - Semiconductor sector PE at 95.5x (73rd percentile) and PB at 6.3x (90th percentile) [8]. Industry Midstream Sentiment Tracking - In the New Energy sector, the report notes stable prices in the photovoltaic industry chain, with battery prices increasing by 8.1% due to rising silver prices [2][4]. - The Real Estate sector shows a decline in sales area by 7.8% year-on-year, with a significant drop in investment and new construction areas [2][4]. - The Consumer sector reports a 4.0% year-on-year growth in retail sales, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months [2][4]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment has decreased by 1.1% [2][4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The report highlights that the steel prices have increased by 1.2% for rebar, while cement prices have risen by 0.4% [2][4]. - In the Technology sector, integrated circuit production has grown by 10.6% year-on-year, indicating a robust demand for electronic components [2][4]. - The report also notes fluctuations in commodity prices, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 2.8% [2][4].