新股分析 2025 年 12 月 15 日 强一股份：率先实现 MEMS 探针 at = 注册制新股纵览 20251215 本期投资提示: 由万宏源研究微信服务 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 AHP 得分及配售比例: 剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后, 我们测算强一股份 AHP 得分为 2.53 ● 分、2.24 分，分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 41.6%分位、39.3%分位,处于中游偏上、 下游偏上水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下，强一股份网下 A、B 两类配售对象 的配售比例分别是：0.0285%、0.0211%。 MEMS 探针卡持续放量，全球前十强唯一境内企业。公司是拥有自主 MEMS 探针制造技术 0 并能够批量生产 MEM ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a shift in bond market pricing power, particularly for long-term and ultra-long-term bonds, from trading desks to allocation desks due to macroeconomic narrative changes and supply-demand dynamics [11][12][13] - The report highlights that the demand structure for long-duration assets has changed, with a weakening marginal demand from insurance and banks, leading to a more pronounced supply-demand contradiction [12][13] - The report suggests that trading funds should focus on short to medium-term strategies, while allocation funds should look for suitable buying points in the insurance sector [13] Group 2 - The report discusses the understanding of "flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools," emphasizing that "shortening and lengthening" is about adjusting liquidity structure rather than contracting total liquidity [14][15] - It notes that the liquidity environment in Q1 2026 is expected to be stable and low, contrasting sharply with the tightening seen in Q1 2025 [16][17] - The report anticipates that the effectiveness of leverage strategies will increase in 2026 due to stable funding rates and a potential steepening of the yield curve [17][18] Group 3 - The report outlines that the effective strategies in the bond market are cyclical, with a shift from duration strategies to "carry and leverage" strategies expected in 2026 [18] - It highlights that the investment style of amortized cost bond funds has shifted from interest rate bonds to credit bonds, particularly supporting the demand for high-quality credit bonds [19][20] - The report indicates that the recent convergence of spreads between credit bond ETFs' constituent and non-constituent bonds is influenced by bank proprietary trading and liquidity management [22][23] Group 4 - The report discusses the impact of the new public fund fee regulations on the demand structure for credit bonds, suggesting a potential weakening of pricing power for bond funds [24][25] - It notes that the demand for convertible bonds remains strong due to their favorable positioning in the market, especially for non-redeemed and newly issued bonds [26][27] - The report concludes that the performance of convertible bonds in November was driven by the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the significant accumulation of previously underweighted positions [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the recent week, the TMT sector led the gains, and there were filings for three non - ferrous ETFs. The overall performance of ETFs in different markets and sectors varied, with some showing gains and others experiencing setbacks. The funds flowing into and out of different index - based ETFs also presented distinct trends [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Fund - raising, and Filing - **Product Establishment and Listing**: In the recent week, 4 ETF products such as Dongcai CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF and Boshi CSI Bank ETF were listed, and 11 products including Baoying CSI A500 Index Enhancement A were established. Multiple CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs from Huatai - Ber瑞 and E Fund were recently established and listed [1][4][5]. - **Product Issuance Information**: In the coming week, 18 index products will end their fund - raising, including Changxin Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Comprehensive Index Enhancement A. Nine index products will start fund - raising, such as GF China Securities Industrial Software Theme ETF [1][6]. - **Product Filing Information**: A total of 34 index products were filed in the recent week. With the upward trend of non - ferrous metals in the past few months, the attention on non - ferrous ETF products has further increased. Penghua, Boshi, and Invesco Great Wall filed for non - ferrous related ETFs [1][8]. 3.2 ETF Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: In the recent week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12), the major broad - based A - share ETFs showed mixed performance. The Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF and Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF had relatively high gains of 2.92% and 1.86% respectively. The major broad - based Hong Kong and US ETFs slightly pulled back, with the Hang Seng ETF and Nasdaq ETF falling 1.00% and 1.92% respectively. Among commodity ETFs, the non - ferrous ETF rose 1.33%, while the energy and chemical ETF had a significant decline of - 3.31% [2][11]. - **Sector - Specific Performance**: The technology sector had the highest gains among major industries in the recent week. The communication ETF had the highest increase of 6.85%. In the broad - based category, the Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF rose 2.92%, and in the cyclical category, the coal ETF had a relatively high decline of - 3.88% [2][13]. 3.3 ETF Fund Flows - **Overall Scale**: As of December 12, 2025, there were 1304 ETFs in the entire market, with a latest total scale of 5662.825 billion yuan, an increase of 16.933 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked first and second in terms of scale, with 3642.161 billion yuan and 935.749 billion yuan respectively [21]. - **Fund Inflows and Outflows**: Among non - monetary ETFs in the recent week, the ETFs targeting the CSI A500 had the largest net inflow of funds, reaching 9.694 billion yuan, while the ETFs targeting the Growth Enterprise Market Index had the largest net outflow of funds, amounting to 3.148 billion yuan [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

策 略 研 究 新股分析 2025 年 12 月 15 日 强一股份：率先实现 MEMS 探针卡 自主量产 ——注册制新股纵览 20251215 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 申 购 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ AHP 得分及配售比例：剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算强一股份 AHP 得分为 2.53 分、2.24 分，分别位于科创体系 AHP 模型总分 41.6%分位、39.3%分位，处于中游偏上、 下游偏上水平。假设以 90%入围率计，中性预期情形下，强一股份网下 A、B 两类配售对象 的配售比例分别是：0.0285%、0.0211%。 ⚫ MEMS 探针 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 1.9% [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen a widening decline, necessitating a stabilization of investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][3]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 15.9% from January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment is 2.6%, with a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Manufacturing investment has increased by 1.9%, but this is still a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [2]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, with a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Specific sectors such as transportation, storage, and postal services saw a decline of 0.1%, while water, environment, and public facilities management experienced a decline of 6.3% [4]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern regions reported a year-on-year decline of 6.6%, while central and western regions saw declines of 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The northeastern region faced a significant decline of 14.0% [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The current cycle is characterized by excessive clearing of supply entities and difficulties in inventory replenishment, leading to a slow recovery in investment [11]. Investment Recommendations - For 2026, the industry is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from major national strategies. Key companies to watch include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in new infrastructure and overseas markets [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TMT sector led the gains on December 15, 2025, and three ETFs in the non - ferrous sector were filed for application. The performance and fund flow of ETFs showed significant differences across different markets and sectors [1] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Index Product Establishment, Fund - raising, and Application - **Product Establishment and Listing**: In the past week, 4 ETF products such as Dongcai CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF and Bosera CSI Bank ETF were listed, and 11 products including Baoying CSI A500 Index Enhancement A were established. Many CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs were recently established and listed [1][5] - **Product Issuance Information**: In the coming week, 18 index products will end their fund - raising, including Changxin Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Comprehensive Index Enhancement A. Nine index products will start fund - raising, such as GF Guozheng Industrial Software Theme ETF [1][7] - **Product Application Information**: A total of 34 index products were applied for in the past week. With the rising trend of non - ferrous metals in the past few months, the attention of non - ferrous ETF products has further increased. Three non - ferrous sector ETFs were applied for, including Penghua and Bosera's application for the CSI Industrial Non - ferrous Metals Theme ETF and Invesco Great Wall's application for the CSI Non - ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1][9] 3.2 ETF Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: In the past week (December 8 - 12, 2025), the main broad - based ETFs in the A - share market showed mixed performance. The Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF and the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF had relatively high increases of 2.92% and 1.86% respectively. The main broad - based ETFs in the Hong Kong and US stock markets slightly corrected, with the Hang Seng ETF and the Nasdaq ETF falling 1.00% and 1.92% respectively. Among commodity ETFs, the non - ferrous ETF rose 1.33%, while the energy and chemical ETF fell 3.31% [2][11] - **Industry - based Performance**: The major industry ETFs also showed mixed performance. The technology category had the highest increase this week, with the communication ETF having the highest increase of 6.85%. Among the broad - based categories, the Growth Enterprise Market 50ETF rose 2.92%, and among the cyclical categories, the coal ETF had a relatively high decline of 3.88% [2][13] - **Cross - border ETF Performance**: In the past week, the main broad - based indices of cross - border markets showed mixed performance, with the Topix Index having the highest increase of 1.82%. Among global market - corresponding ETFs, the Huatai - Peregrine CSI KRX Korea - China Semiconductor ETF rose 1.59%, and the Huaan Germany 30 (DAX) ETF rose 1.13% [16] - **Non - currency ETF Performance**: Among non - currency ETFs, the Huaxia Growth Enterprise Market Artificial Intelligence ETF led the gains with a return of 7.40% in the past week, while the Huifutong Nasdaq 100ETF was relatively lagging with a return of - 4.67% [19] 3.3 ETF Fund Flow - **Overall ETF Scale**: As of December 12, 2025, there were 1,304 ETFs in the entire market, with a total scale of 5,662.825 billion yuan, an increase of 16.933 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share and cross - border ETFs ranked top two in terms of scale, with values of 3,642.161 billion yuan and 935.749 billion yuan respectively. The scale of A - share ETFs increased by 100.95 billion yuan in the past week [21] - **Net Inflow and Outflow of Non - currency ETF Funds**: Among non - currency ETFs, the ETFs with the CSI A500 as the underlying had the largest net inflow of funds, with an inflow of 9.694 billion yuan. The ETFs tracking the Growth Enterprise Market Index had the largest net outflow, with a total outflow of 3.148 billion yuan [24] - **High - inflow and High - liquidity ETFs**: In the past week, the Southern CSI A500ETF and the Harvest CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF had relatively high fund inflows of 3.771 billion yuan and 2.648 billion yuan respectively. The Haifutong CSI Short - term Financing ETF led in liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 317.89 billion yuan in the past week, and the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market - making Treasury Bond ETF also had relatively high liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of 103.05 billion yuan [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Fixed asset investment growth in China has further declined, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% for January to November 2025, a drop of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period [2][3]. - Traditional infrastructure investment has seen an expanded decline, necessitating measures to stabilize investment. Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Real estate investment remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% for January to November 2025, indicating a weak recovery trajectory [11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment is -2.6%, with manufacturing investment showing a slight increase of 1.9% [2][3]. - The decline in traditional infrastructure investment has intensified, with significant drops in various sectors, including transportation and public facilities [4]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with notable declines in transportation and environmental management sectors [4]. - Regional investment disparities are evident, with the eastern region experiencing a 6.6% decline year-on-year [4]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with construction starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% [11]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in real estate investment due to challenges in inventory replenishment and supply chain issues [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that in 2026, industry investment is expected to stabilize, with emerging sectors likely to benefit from national strategic initiatives [15]. - Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and others in the new infrastructure and overseas markets [15].

证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 财政发力仍待观察，实体需求仍弱 ——11 月金融数据点评 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 相关研究 债 券 研 究 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 2025 年 11 月新增人民币贷款 0.39 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 0.58 万亿元），新增社 融 2.49 万亿元（2024 年 11 月为 2.33 万亿元），社融同比增速为 8.5%（2025 年 10 月为 8.5%），M2 同比 8%（2025 年 10 月为 8.2%）。 ⚫ 第一，社融同比增速持平上 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 论债市定价权的转移 ——近期市场反馈及思考 8 投资者当下更为关心的是"谁在主导债市的定价权、2026 年是否存在预期差、以及什么策略可能 较为有效"。本文就以上话题汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题（涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 ⚫ 谁主导了债市（特别是长债、超长债）的定价权？ ⚫ 2026 年 1 季度与 2025 年同期的债市环境有何不同？ 相关研究 《"资金分流+反内卷"下的债市 主导逻辑变迁——近期市场反馈及 思考 5》 2025/08/18 《债市"走楼梯"行情下的困境与 破局——近期市场反馈及思考 4》 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A02305250400 ...