2025 年 12 月 15 日 防线人行业电 相关研究 券研究培 证券分析师 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 草龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 国 RED III 落地, 看好 HVC UCO 发展 本期投资后了 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 环保 事件: 12 月 11 日，德国内阁正式通过了基于欧盟《可再生能源指令》 (RED III) 转化 ○ 为本国法律的立法（以下简称法案），有望提振 HVO 及 UCO 需求。 欧盟 RED III 于 2023 年生效．要求成员国 2025 年转为本国法律，实际转换滞后。2023 ● 年９月，欧洲议会正式投票通过了 RED III，同时要求欧盟成员国须在 2025 年 5 月 21 日 前，将 REDIII 指令转化为本国的国内法律并开始实施。但由于牵涉面广、目标难度大， 多个欧盟成员国在转置过程中普遍存在滞后。 德国立法上调汽柴油温室 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improving external demand and a recovery in the ergonomic chair market driven by self-care consumption trends. The report highlights the potential for the company's export business to enter a new phase, supported by its global production layout and the introduction of new products [6][9][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The demand for furniture in the U.S. is expected to improve due to reduced tariff disruptions and a declining interest rate environment, which is anticipated to boost housing sales and, consequently, furniture demand. The U.S. is the largest consumer of office chairs globally, with China and Vietnam being the main producers [22][29][35]. Company Performance - The company is projected to face challenges in 2025 due to tariff impacts but is expected to see growth in 2026. Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 47.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 34.2%. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 296 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year [7][58]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 34.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while net profit was 191 million yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year [58][61]. Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities in Vietnam and Romania, which enhances its supply chain advantages. The report emphasizes the importance of these locations in the context of U.S. tariff policies [64][71]. - The company is actively broadening its customer base and product categories, successfully entering new markets and channels, including partnerships with major retailers like Costco and Sam's [75][78]. Market Potential - The ergonomic chair market in China is projected to reach 22 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.1%. The report notes that the perception of ergonomic chairs is evolving from mere tools to symbols of quality living, indicating a significant market opportunity [9][11][22]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 295 million yuan in 2025, with subsequent increases to 401 million yuan in 2026 and 495 million yuan in 2027. The report adjusts the profit estimates slightly upward for 2026 and 2027 based on expected improvements in both export and domestic sales [10][11][58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is positioned at 2.53 points, placing it in the 34.4% percentile of the AHP model for non-technology innovation systems, indicating a lower upstream level [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has established a complete circular economy industrial chain centered around PVA, achieving self-sufficiency in key raw materials and diversifying downstream products. As of the end of 2024, the company has a PVA production capacity of 130,000 tons and an acetylene production capacity of 870,000 tons, ranking third and eighth in market share in China, respectively [5][10]. - The company is implementing a "dual high" reduction plan to decrease the revenue contribution from PVA and acetylene to 40% by 2027, while actively expanding into high-value downstream sectors [5][18]. - The company has signed significant sales agreements for high-end products, including a projected annual sales of 300 million yuan for PVA water-soluble films and 700 million yuan for DMC/EMC/DEC products, indicating a strong potential for revenue growth [20][41]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The company is set to go public on December 11, 2025, with an AHP score of 2.53, indicating a lower upstream level. The expected allocation ratios for offline investors are 0.0173% for Class A and 0.0150% for Class B under neutral conditions [8][9]. Fundamental Highlights and Features - The company has built a circular economy industrial chain around PVA, achieving self-sufficiency in acetylene and diversifying into various downstream products. This structure helps mitigate risks associated with raw material price fluctuations [10][16]. - The company is facing intense competition in the domestic PVA market, with high-end products largely dominated by foreign imports. However, there is significant potential for domestic substitution in high-value applications [16][17]. - The "dual high" reduction plan aims to decrease the production and sales scale of high-pollution products, with a focus on expanding into high-value non-high-pollution products [18][19]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024, with a CAGR of -17.01% and -19.69%, respectively, primarily due to falling prices of acetylene and PVA [22][24]. - The company’s gross margin has stabilized due to cost reduction efforts, with sales gross margins of 24.92% in 2022, 21.76% in 2023, and 22.22% in 2024 [24][25]. - The company maintains a lower debt ratio compared to its peers, with an asset-liability ratio of 26.62% in 2022, indicating a strong financial position [29][30]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds for projects including the production of PVB resin and functional films, water-based adhesives, and energy efficiency upgrades, with a total investment of 1.878 billion yuan [41][42]. - The expected internal rate of return for the PVB resin project is 20.20%, indicating strong profitability potential [42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The German government has officially passed legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which is expected to boost the demand for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [4]. - The RED III directive, effective from 2023, mandates EU member states to transpose it into national law by May 21, 2025, with Germany setting a higher greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 19% for gasoline and diesel by 2030, compared to the EU's unified target of 14.5% [4][5]. - The cancellation of double counting for advanced biofuels is expected to convert "accounting quotas" into "physical volumes," significantly increasing the demand for HVO and UCO [4]. - The removal of POME (Palm Oil Mill Effluent) from compliance eligibility is set to take effect in 2027, although its impact is considered limited due to the declining share of palm oil in EU biodiesel feedstocks [4]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for biodiesel development across road transport, shipping, and aviation, with specific companies recommended for investment: Shandong Hi-Speed Energy, Hainan New Energy Technology, Longkun Technology, and Weili [4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The German cabinet's approval of the RED III legislation is a significant step towards enhancing HVO and UCO demand [4]. - The legislation aims to increase the GHG reduction target for the transportation sector, with a gradual rise to 59% by 2040 [4]. Market Implications - The cancellation of double counting is anticipated to enhance HVO profitability, indirectly raising SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices due to reduced supply [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the legislative progress in other EU member states as they implement RED III [4]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector are evaluated with projected net profits and market capitalizations, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - For instance, Shandong Hi-Speed Energy is projected to have a net profit of 1.05 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 33 [6].

Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, significantly below the expected 2.9%[1][7] - Retail sales of goods fell sharply, with categories like gold and jewelry down 29.1% to 8.5%, and home appliances down 4.8% to -19.4%[2][8] - Service retail sales showed positive performance, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.4%[2][8] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November recorded a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, but this was an improvement of 2.1 percentage points from October[3][39] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3][17] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors[3][41] Real Estate - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 6.9 percentage points to -29.9% in November[2][43] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth, with new starts down 27.7% and completions down 25.4%[2][43] - Despite falling prices, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points to -17.9%[2][43] Production - Industrial added value maintained a growth rate of 4.8% in November, only slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3][26] - The production of food and beverages saw significant recovery, with growth rates of 5.6% and -0.6% respectively[3][26] - The automotive sector experienced a notable decline, with production down 4.9 percentage points to 11.9%[3][26] Policy Implications - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transition, with a shift from goods consumption to service consumption[4][31] - The government's focus on "new investment" areas is beginning to show positive effects, with overall investment expected to stabilize in the future[4][31] - Risks remain from external environmental changes and the pace of growth policy implementation may not meet expectations[5][50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "middle-upper" based on the AHP score of 2.04, which places the company in the 27.5% percentile of the non-innovation board AHP model [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of anti-overflow special films, with a market share of 30% in 2024, having ranked first for five consecutive years from 2020 to 2024 [2][9]. - The company has established deep partnerships with several top global manufacturers in the flexible printed circuit board (FPC) industry, including Pengding Holdings and Vison Electronics [2][9]. - The company has successfully developed a PBT anti-overflow special film that can replace the traditional TPX material, reducing costs and expanding its product offerings [9][10]. - The acoustic film technology is internationally leading, and the company has passed product tests for its new energy materials with BYD, which has also become a significant shareholder [12][13]. - The company’s revenue from new energy materials has rapidly increased from 0.3% in 2022 to 14.8% in 2024, indicating strong growth potential in this segment [12][13]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score, adjusted for liquidity premium factors, is 2.04, with an expected allocation ratio of 0.0216% for class A and 0.0186% for class B investors under a neutral scenario [7][8]. Company Fundamentals and Highlights - The company specializes in high-performance functional materials, particularly anti-overflow and strong resistance special films, which are widely used in FPC manufacturing and consumer electronics [2][9]. - The company has broken the monopoly of Japanese firms in the anti-overflow film market and has developed products with superior performance metrics [9][10]. - The market for domestic anti-overflow films is estimated to be around 900-1,000 million yuan, with a global market potential of 1.8-2.0 billion yuan [11]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 455 million, 516 million, and 657 million yuan respectively, with net profits of 82 million, 83 million, and 116 million yuan, showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.15% and 19.14% [19][22]. - The gross margin has steadily increased from 31.76% in 2022 to 32.28% in 2024, which is higher than comparable companies [22][24]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is significantly lower than that of comparable firms, standing at 18.70% to 20.62% during the same period [25][26]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds through the issuance of up to 36.716 million new shares, with a total investment of 638.383 million yuan allocated to functional material projects [28][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is positioned at 2.53 points, placing it in the 34.4% percentile of the AHP model, indicating a lower tier in the upstream segment [10]. Core Insights - The company has established a complete industrial chain centered around PVA, achieving self-sufficiency in key raw materials and expanding downstream product offerings. As of the end of 2024, the company has a PVA production capacity of 130,000 tons and calcium carbide capacity of 870,000 tons, ranking third and eighth in market share in China, respectively [11][12]. - The company is implementing a "dual high" reduction plan to decrease the revenue contribution from PVA and calcium carbide to 40% by 2027, while actively expanding into high-value downstream sectors [12][20]. - The company has faced declining revenues and profits due to falling prices of calcium carbide and PVA, with a projected revenue of 3.718 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 6.66% year-on-year growth [24]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The company’s AHP score, adjusted for liquidity premium factors, is 2.53, indicating a lower tier in the upstream segment. The expected allocation ratios for offline investors are 0.0173% for Class A and 0.0150% for Class B under a neutral scenario [10][11]. Fundamental Highlights and Features - The company has built a circular economy industrial chain around PVA, achieving self-sufficiency in calcium carbide and expanding into various downstream products. This strategy helps mitigate raw material price volatility [11][12]. - The company is focusing on high-value products, with plans to reduce the production and sales scale of high-pollution products, aiming for a significant shift towards high-value non-high-pollution products [20][22]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown a declining trend, with a CAGR of -17.01% and -19.69% from 2022 to 2024, primarily due to falling prices of calcium carbide and PVA [24]. - The company’s average sales gross margin is higher than that of comparable companies, benefiting from cost reduction measures and energy-saving upgrades [27][28]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds for projects including the production of PVB resin and functional films, water-based adhesives, and energy efficiency upgrades, with a total investment of 1.878 billion yuan [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) [1] Core Views - The bank is positioned to benefit from high dividend yields and a solid provisioning base, with expectations for valuation improvement due to its strong performance and new management goals [7][8] - The bank's extensive network in rural areas provides a competitive advantage, allowing it to capitalize on regional growth opportunities [7][10] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank has a total asset size of approximately 1.66 trillion yuan, ranking first among listed rural commercial banks [20] - The bank has over 1,700 branches, with 82.4% located in rural areas, providing a strong deposit base and low funding costs [20][22] 2. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is approximately 28.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.23% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is around 12.10 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.09% [6] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.27% in 2025, with a gradual improvement expected in subsequent years [6] 3. Investment Analysis - The bank is expected to gradually eliminate its valuation discount due to its robust performance and high dividend yield, which is projected to be nearly 5% in 2025 [8] - The anticipated growth rates for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 5.1%, 9.5%, and 10.2%, respectively [9][8] - The report highlights the potential for asset growth driven by urban expansion and improved operational efficiency [10][30] 4. Management and Strategic Direction - The new management team, led by Liu Xiaojun, aims to significantly enhance key performance indicators by the end of 2027 [10][30] - The bank's strategy includes penetrating urban markets to increase loan productivity and overall asset size [10][30] 5. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The bank benefits from low deposit costs and a strong credit quality foundation, which supports its competitive net interest margin [32] - The bank's credit cost is projected to remain low, further enhancing its profitability [32]

Economic Data - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, worse than the expected -2.2% and the previous -1.7%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, compared to an expectation of -15.4% and a previous value of -14.7%[1] - Industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous 4.9%[1] Consumption Trends - Consumption policies have shifted focus from goods to services, with social retail sales slowing down while service retail sales increased by 5.4% year-on-year[2] - The decline in retail sales was influenced by the fading effect of e-commerce promotions and a downturn in demand for home appliances, automobiles, and furniture[2] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income showing a slight decline but overall service retail growth improving[2] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a marginal recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points to -10.1%, marking the first rebound since Q2[3] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, while service sector investment increased by 0.6 percentage points to -12.3%[3] Real Estate Sector - Real estate financing weakened significantly, with credit financing growth dropping by 11.5 percentage points to -25.3%, leading to a sharp decline in real estate investment growth to -29.9%[4] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth territory, with new starts down by 27.7% and completions down by 25.4%[4] - Despite falling prices, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points, respectively[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The strategic partnership between the company and Royal Philips aims to enhance the availability of high-quality health technology products in the Chinese market, focusing on various home health monitoring devices [4][6]. - The collaboration is expected to leverage Philips' technological expertise and brand resources alongside the company's strengths in innovation, manufacturing, and channel operations, creating a comprehensive health management ecosystem for Chinese families [6]. - The report anticipates long-term growth for the company, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to overall domestic demand fluctuations [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 3,348 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.3% [5]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 391 million yuan, with a growth rate of 25.3% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 1.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24 times [5]. - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 592 million yuan by 2027, with a PE ratio of 16 times, significantly lower than the overall medical device industry PE of 38 times for 2025 [6].