Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify and recommend industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on specific market conditions and sectoral dynamics [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates industries based on their recovery potential ("distressed reversal sectors") and ongoing trends. It recommends sectors such as Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption industries. Additionally, it highlights sectors like technology (e.g., consumer electronics) and those with upward momentum, such as banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential and aligns with current market trends [2][3][9] 2. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying sectors with high beta characteristics, particularly in the technology domain, to capture growth opportunities [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model emphasizes technology-related sectors, such as consumer electronics, as key areas of focus. It also considers sectors with strong upward momentum, like banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is suitable for identifying high-growth sectors in a market environment characterized by volatility and selective sectoral strength [2][3][9] 3. Model Name: Timing System Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses moving average distances to assess market conditions and provide timing signals for market entry or exit [2][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index - Current data: - 20-day moving average: 5063 - 120-day moving average: 5079 - Distance: -0.32% (short-term moving average below long-term moving average) - The absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, indicating a market in a consolidation phase [2][3][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear and quantitative framework for assessing market trends and timing decisions [2][3][8] 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal portfolio allocation based on valuation metrics and market trends [3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the Wind All A Index's valuation levels: - PE ratio: 60th percentile (moderate level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) - Based on these metrics and short-term market trends, the model recommends a portfolio allocation of 50% for absolute return products [3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances valuation considerations with market dynamics to guide portfolio allocation [3][9] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, new consumption, technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 2. TWO BETA Model - Focus sectors: Technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 3. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: -0.32% (absolute value < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase) [2][3][8] 4. Position Management Model - Recommended portfolio allocation: 50% for absolute return products [3][9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pet economy in China is rapidly developing, with domestic brands rising quickly. Focus on companies with high domestic income growth. Key recommendations include pet food companies such as Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. Additionally, attention is suggested for pet medical companies like Ruipu Biology and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [2][16]. Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The 618 shopping festival on Taobao saw significant sales, with 653 pet brands achieving over 100% year-on-year growth in the first hour. Notably, domestic brands like Fresh and Frigat saw sales growth exceeding 200%. The top live-streamer, Li Jiaqi, collaborated with leading domestic brands to offer discounts over 30%, enhancing consumer engagement and brand loyalty [1][15]. - In April 2025, Douyin's pet category sales reached 763 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.77%, with sales volume up 53.35% [1][16]. - Pet food exports from China showed continuous growth, with 110,200 tons exported from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% and generating 3.26 billion yuan in revenue, up 7.21% year-on-year [1][16]. Swine Sector - As of May 24, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China was 14.36 yuan/kg, down 2.84% from the previous week. The industry is facing weak demand, with slaughterhouses showing low inventory levels and a decrease in daily slaughter rates [3][17]. - The sector is characterized by low valuations and expectation discrepancies. The average market value per head for leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs is currently below historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 34.01% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates from January to April 2025 [5][19]. - The yellow chicken supply is tightening, with prices sensitive to demand changes. The current low inventory levels and potential policy-driven demand recovery could benefit companies like Lihua Co. and Wens Foodstuffs [6][22]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices for chicks due to restricted imports, with prices remaining stable at 4.15 yuan/chick as of May 24, 2025 [7][23]. Planting Sector - The Ministry of Agriculture has outlined key support directions for grain and oil production, emphasizing the importance of biotechnology in enhancing crop yields and promoting food security [8][24]. - Recommendations include seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, and agricultural resource companies like Xinyangfeng [8][25]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is highlighted with a focus on Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [9][26]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands, with companies like KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. recommended for their potential in the evolving market landscape [10][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.98 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, up 47.3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% growth [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts and has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the sales expense was 8.34 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 29.79%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were 6.58 billion yuan, with a ratio of 23.52%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase its R&D investment to 8.23 billion yuan in 2024, a 33.8% increase compared to 2023 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 31.34 billion, 35.67 billion, and 40.84 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 7.01 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.43 billion yuan [5][11]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - The innovative drug revenue reached 13.89 billion yuan in 2024, a 31% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates a cumulative revenue target of 130 billion, 295 billion, and 503 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company has a strong product matrix in oncology, metabolism and cardiovascular, immunology and respiratory, and neuroscience, with significant ongoing projects and partnerships [4]. - Recent licensing agreements, such as the one with MSD for the HRS-5346 project, highlight the company's strategic focus on global collaborations, with potential total transaction value of approximately 14 billion USD [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Despite external political turbulence affecting market sentiment, the AI industry is viewed as a key investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain [3][31] - Oracle's significant investment of approximately $40 billion to purchase 400,000 Nvidia GB200 chips for a new data center supporting OpenAI highlights the competitive landscape in AI infrastructure [12][14] - The introduction of Broadcom's third-generation 200G/lane CPO solution signifies advancements in optical technology, which are crucial for AI-driven applications [20][21] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology in the optical module and optical device sector [4][34] - For switch server PCBs, recommended stocks include Huadian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][34] - Low valuation and high dividend stocks in cloud and computing resources are highlighted, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][34] - In AIDC and cooling solutions, key recommendations include Yingweike and Runze Technology [4][34] - For AIGC applications and edge computing, recommended stocks are Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][34] 2. Offshore Wind and Marine Cable - Key recommendations in the marine cable sector include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][35] - The recovery of overseas markets and concentration on leading companies is emphasized, with recommendations for companies like Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [5][35] 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The acceleration of low-orbit satellite development and low-altitude economy is noted, with key recommendations for companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][36] 4. Recent Industry Dynamics - Oracle's procurement of Nvidia chips for AI data centers and the establishment of a new data center in the UAE as part of the Stargate project indicates a significant push in AI infrastructure [12][14] - Broadcom's advancements in CPO technology are crucial for supporting large-scale AI clusters, showcasing the importance of optical interconnect technology in the AI sector [20][21] 5. Market Performance - The communication sector experienced a decline of 1.93% in the week of May 19-23, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [37]

证券研究报告 2025年05月25日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 AGI率先落地：无人驾驶出租车 作者： 分析师 孙潇雅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520080009 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 汽车 摘要 Robotaxi，即无人驾驶出租车，支持L4级（高度自动驾驶）和L5级（完全自动驾驶）自动驾驶技术。我们预计2025年或是Robotaxi的元年。 政策端，对Robotaxi的法律法规愈加完善： 中国：全国性政策给出Robotaxi准入和上路途径，允许其在特定区域、特定时段进行商业化试运营；地方性政策则进一步对车辆安全员、事 故权责划分等进行规定。 美国：推出AV-STEP框架，对Robotaxi的申报、事故认定上报等进行详细规定。 用户体验端，Robotaxi较传统出租车或网约车更具有吸引力： 根据弗若斯特沙利文，中国网约车市场规模预计有望从2023年2550亿上涨到2030年8003亿，Robotaxi市场规模则有望接近5000亿，在智慧出 行中的渗透率达到32%。 投资建议： Robotaxi厂商：建议关注技术实力强的【 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 博通发布单通道 200G 能力的第三代 CPO 方案 通信 证券研究报告 Oracle 将采购 40 万枚英伟达 GB200 芯片，博通发布单通道 200G CPO 方案 博通宣布在光电合封 CPO 领域的重大进展，推出第三代 200G/lane 的 CPO 方案， 并表示第二代 100G/lane 产品和生态系统已经成熟，重点强调了 OSAT 工艺、散热 设计、操作流程、光纤布线和整体良率的关键改进。 本周行业动态： 本周投资观点： Oracle 将采购 40 万枚英伟达 GB200 芯片 Oracle 计划投资约 400 亿美元购买 Nvidia 最新的高性能芯片，用于支持 OpenAI 在 美国的新数据中心建设。Oracle 将采购约 40 万枚 Nvidia 最新的 GB200 芯片，该数 据中心预计将于明年年中全面投入运营，Oracle 已同意签署 15 年的租赁协议。 OpenAI、Oracle 和 Nvidia 还参与了中东地区的 Stargate 项目，计划在阿联酋建设 一个新的大型 AI 数据中心。 由于外部政治环境动荡扰动，市场整体情绪较为低落，但我们仍然看好 ...

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 21 周周报：淘宝 618 正式开售，国货霸榜！宠物品牌谁主沉浮? 1、宠物板块：跟进宠物 618，哪些亮点？ 1）淘宝 618 开售，头部主播宠物直播间热销，国产品牌持续崛起。①首小时战况如何？5 月 16 日晚 8 点，天猫 618 正式开卖。首小时， 653 个宠物品牌成交同比翻倍，鲜朗成交增长超 220%，大宠爱、弗列加特等品牌成交增长近 200%；9 个宠物品牌成交破千万，其中弗列 加特等 7 大品牌系国产，5 个宠物主粮单品成交破千万。②头部主播选品及折扣如何？以头部主播李佳琦为例，根据中国经营报数据， 在天猫宠物达人带货成交排行榜中，李佳琦直播间位列榜首。本次 618 活动中，李佳琪联动麦富迪、弗列加特、领先等国产头部品牌推 出超 30%折扣让利策略（天风农业测算，与日常价格对比），并设置高价值互动激励（如麦富迪 B ARF 主食冻干、弗列加特全价鲜肉烘焙 猫粮等爆品抽奖），锚定"品质+性价比"双核心撬动消费决策。我们认为，此次活动不仅推动短 期销售放量，更通过场景化种草强化用 户心智，为品牌构筑长效增长引擎。此外，2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The new tobacco market continues to grow, with heated tobacco products leading in market size and nicotine pouches experiencing the fastest growth [2][3] - The global tobacco market is undergoing significant changes, with Japan's tobacco business expanding rapidly [4] - The global supply of tobacco leaves is facing shortages, leading to widespread price increases across the industry [14] Summary by Sections Electronic Cigarettes - In 2024, global e-cigarette sales are projected to reach $23.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [3] - Sales of disposable e-cigarettes grew by 18.9% to 840 million units, generating $6.42 billion in revenue, up 19.6% [3] - Open system e-cigarettes saw sales of 85.16 million devices and 12.23 million liters of e-liquid, with revenues of $2.62 billion and $5.49 billion respectively [3] Traditional Tobacco Products - Traditional oral tobacco products, including chewing and snuff tobacco, are experiencing a decline, with 2024 sales expected to drop by 0.8% to 115,000 tons [3] - Revenue from traditional oral tobacco is projected to decrease by 0.1% to $13.82 billion [3] Nicotine Pouches - Nicotine pouch sales are expected to grow by 36.9% to 21.23 billion pouches in 2024, with revenue reaching $11.25 billion, a 51.0% increase [3] - The United States leads in nicotine pouch sales with 13.88 billion pouches sold [3] Heated Tobacco Products - Sales of heated tobacco products are projected to grow by 12.7% to $38.85 billion in 2024 [3] - The volume of heated tobacco devices sold is expected to increase by 11.7% to 45.26 million units, with revenue rising by 14.7% to $2.44 billion [3] Company Performance - Philip Morris International reported a net income of $14.66 billion from its smoke-free products, a 14.2% increase, accounting for 38.7% of total revenue [5] - British American Tobacco's Vuse e-cigarette sales declined by 5.9% to 616 million units, impacted by illegal disposable e-cigarettes in the U.S. [6] - Japan Tobacco's Ploom brand heated tobacco sales grew by 24.2% to 218,000 boxes, primarily driven by the Ploom X model [7] Market Dynamics - The global tobacco market is experiencing intense competition, with multinational companies showing divergent growth patterns [4] - The supply chain for tobacco is under pressure due to climate-related shortages and rising prices [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.98 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, up 47.3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% growth [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts and has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the sales expense was 8.34 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 29.79%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were 6.58 billion yuan, with a ratio of 23.52%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase its R&D investment to 8.23 billion yuan in 2024, a 33.8% increase compared to 2023 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 31.34 billion, 35.67 billion, and 40.84 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 7.01 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.43 billion yuan [5][11]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - The innovative drug revenue reached 13.89 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 31% year-on-year increase. The company anticipates a cumulative revenue target of 130 billion, 295 billion, and 503 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company has a strong product matrix in oncology, metabolism and cardiovascular, immunology and respiratory, and neuroscience, with significant ongoing projects and partnerships [4]. - Recent licensing agreements, such as the deal with MSD for the Lp(a) oral small molecule project, highlight the company's strategic focus on global partnerships and revenue generation [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.99 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.10 yuan in 2025 and 1.26 yuan in 2026 [11][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 54.21 in 2024 to 49.00 in 2025, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.892 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 403 million yuan, up 15.67% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 918 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.71%, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, growing 1.99% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its core products, particularly the ALK inhibitor Ensartinib, which has been included in the medical insurance directory and received clinical guideline recommendations [3][5]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.702 billion, 4.516 billion, and 5.162 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 661 million, 930 million, and 1.030 billion yuan in the same years [6][12]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 1.324 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.17% [12][13]. Cost Management - In 2024, the company increased its sales expenses to 1.094 billion yuan, a 28.10% increase from 2023, while R&D expenses decreased to 502 million yuan, down 8.7 percentage points [2][4]. - The management expenses for 2024 were reported at 269 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its product portfolio in the lung cancer field, with four candidates in development targeting EGFR mutations [4]. - The strategic cooperation for the commercialization of plant-derived recombinant human serum albumin injection has been accepted for priority review by NMPA [4]. Market Position - The company’s core product, Ensartinib, is expected to see robust growth due to its long treatment duration and favorable competitive landscape, especially in the post-operative adjuvant indication [3][5]. - The company is also advancing its international commercialization efforts, with Ensartinib approved for ALK-positive NSCLC in the U.S. and undergoing EMA listing procedures [5].