策略报告 | 投资策略 中观景气度高频跟踪及运用 证券研究报告 中观景气度数据库和定量模型应用 从整体的行业景气度方面来看，本周机械设备、电子、纺织服饰、房地产、 商贸零售等行业整体呈上行趋势；煤炭、石油石化、电力设备、食品饮料、 医药生物、家用电器、汽车、银行、公用事业、环保等行业整体呈下行趋势。 基于我们 2024 年 10 月 15 日外发的《全行业中观景气度数据库应用框架》 内的模型及研究框架，本周，我们预测了未来 4 周表现较优的申万二级行业。 重视通用设备、半导体、医疗器械、医疗服务、玻璃玻纤、包装印刷、水泥、 装修装饰Ⅱ、饰品、装修建材、个护用品、房地产服务、炼化及贸易、纺织 制造、电力等申万二级行业。相较于上周，新增了装修装饰Ⅱ、饰品等。 截至 2025 年 05 月 25 日，重视行业值得关注的景气度数据有： 行业配置建议：赛点 2.0 第三阶段攻坚不易，波折难免，重视恒生互联网。5 月，应对"特朗普"不确定。根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线 降维为三个方向：1）Deepseek 突破与开源引领的科技 AI+，2）消费股的估 值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，3）低估红利继续崛起。红利回撤常 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has begun to recover following the significant reduction of bilateral tariffs between China and the US on May 12, leading to a temporary strengthening of risk assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1% and the Nasdaq increasing by 4.5% from May 12 to May 23 [3][10] - Despite the recovery in US equities, the dollar assets outside the US have not shown significant capital favor, with the dollar index declining by 2.6% during the same period, falling below the 100 mark [3][12] - The US credit rating was downgraded by Moody's on May 15, reflecting increased concerns over government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a complete downgrade by all three major rating agencies [4][14] - A large-scale fiscal spending bill was passed by the US House of Representatives on May 22, which is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade [5][15] - The combination of high inflation, high interest rates, and high debt levels in the US raises concerns about the sustainability of economic data, with potential adverse effects on the private sector [6][18] - Gold is viewed as a preferred asset in the current environment, with expectations that its value will continue to rise as market focus shifts back to fiscal and debt sustainability risks [6][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Economic Environment - The reduction of tariffs has led to a recovery in global risk appetite, with notable increases in US stock indices [3][10] - The dollar index has weakened, indicating a lack of significant capital inflow into dollar assets [3][12] Section 2: US Fiscal Policy and Credit Rating - Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating reflects growing concerns over fiscal discipline and debt levels [4][14] - The passage of a major fiscal spending bill is expected to exacerbate federal debt levels significantly [5][15] Section 3: Market Reactions and Asset Preferences - The current economic environment characterized by high inflation and debt levels may lead to a deterioration of hard economic data [6][18] - Gold is increasingly seen as a safe-haven asset, with expectations for its price to rise as market concerns about fiscal sustainability grow [6][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.01 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 601.57 million yuan, up 3.71% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a slight decline of 2.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 200 million yuan, showing a marginal increase of 0.03% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 36.71% in 2024, primarily due to higher promotional costs for newly launched products [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure, with a notable increase in the proportion of patented and new products, which are expected to drive future growth [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 4.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.10%, and net profit is expected to be 661.81 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.01% [5][11]. - The R&D investment for 2024 was 1.02 billion yuan, accounting for 25.35% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [4]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 1.73 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.99% [11][12]. Product and Pipeline Development - The company has four projects in the NDA stage and three in Phase III clinical trials, showcasing a robust pipeline for future growth [4]. - New products such as复立坦 and 信立汀他 have entered the national medical insurance catalog, laying a foundation for future sales growth [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is increasing its market presence through enhanced sales efforts and product promotion, particularly in the competitive hypertension medication market [3][4]. - The revenue from formulations reached 3.19 billion yuan in 2024, up 20.43%, while raw materials and intermediates saw a slight decline [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.012 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.22%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 601.57 million yuan, up 3.71% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.062 billion yuan, a slight decline of 2.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 200 million yuan, showing a marginal increase of 0.03% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 36.71% in 2024, primarily due to higher promotional costs for newly launched products [2]. - The revenue structure is shifting towards patented and new products, with a notable increase in the revenue scale of these segments [3]. - The company invested 1.017 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 25.35% of its revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [4]. Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.538 billion, 5.423 billion, and 6.246 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits adjusted to 662 million and 783 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 [5]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 1.727 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.99% [6][11]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.168 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 17.35% [11][12]. Product and Market Development - The company is focusing on expanding its product pipeline, with several projects in various clinical stages, including four in the NDA phase and three in Phase III clinical trials [4]. - New products like复立坦 and 信立汀他 have entered the national medical insurance catalog, laying a foundation for future growth [3]. - The company’s flagship product, 信立坦, continues to gain market share in the competitive hypertension drug market, particularly in grassroots markets [3].

重点推荐 《策略|AIDC：人工智能发展的核心引擎——产业赛道投资图谱》 AIDC 人工智能发展的核心引擎，根据科智咨询测算，2023-2028 中国智 算中心市场规模年化增速超 25%。1、AI 计算芯片:GPU 主导 AI 计算芯片 市场，国产替代加速。根据中商产业研究院测算，2025 年我国 GPU 市场 规模预计突破 1200 亿元。在美国对华高端计算芯片出口管制持续升级与 国内人工智能产业快速发展的双重驱动下，国产计算芯片产业正迎来战略 性发展机遇。2、存储芯片:我们认为在 AI 算力基建加速落地的背景下， 存储芯片作为支撑数据存算协同的核心硬件，其技术升级与国产化替代已 成为关键投资主线。3、供配电：AI 算力需求激增驱动电源设备升级机遇。 未来，数据中心电源产品系统开始朝集约化、模块化、预制化方向发展。 可关注机柜外电源，柴油发电机，备用电源，变压器等细分领域。4、网 络：算力基建向多机多卡发展，高性能网络决定通信效率。在此架构中， 联接算力节点的高性能网络直接决定了集群通信效率，进而影响整体吞吐 量和算力利用率。5、制冷：单机功率密度攀升驱动散热系统升级，液冷 技术有望成为数据中心的主要选择。 ...

二手房需求分流持续强化。4 月开发投资、土地购置费、土地出让金收入分别同比-10.3%、 -5.9%、-11.4%，较 3 月累计同比增速分别-0.4、-1.4、+4.5pct。三项指标保持较高降速， 前两项指标更领先反映投资端边际变化。而在新房销售阶段性企稳背景下，总量投资收缩似乎 仍较难避免，主要受较重存货影响：根据克而瑞统计，24 年 TOP100 房企总土储货值 25.17 万亿元，较 23 年末下降 13%，去化周期加权值 6.93 年，较 23 年提升 2.04 年；50 家典型 上市房企现房账面价值占存货比 27%，较 23 年末增长 5.6pct。由此视角观察，二手价格下 行压力及新货供给提质对老货去化量价的冲击短期仍会延续，而投资拐点的先决条件需要：1） 价格系统性止跌企稳；2）多数房企库存去化周期稳定于低位区间。故我们认为，二手房的需 求分流及投资端更高的降速或于未来 1-2 年趋势延续。 波动率提升可考虑哑铃策略。截止 5月 23 日，申万地产指数 0.71X pb，中华内房股指数 0.45X pb，估值水平相对低位，但仍高出去年 9 月历史底约 30%。近期诸如降息、城市更新等政策 已 ...

| 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 潘暕 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517070005 panjian@tfzq.com 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 05 月 25 日 许俊峰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520110003 xujunfeng@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《消费电子-行业研究周报:关税协议 阶段性落地，看好消费电子板块修复机 会》 2025-05-22 2 《消费电子-行业专题研究:英伟达虚 拟仿真技术主导，驱动人形机器人行 业》 2025-05-20 3 《消费电子-行业研究周报:海外科技 股 25Q1：Capex 保持较高强度，看好 AI 算力链修复》 2025-05-13 消费电子 证券研究报告 包恒星 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524100001 baohengxing@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -13% -5% 3% 11% 19% 27% 35% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 消费电子 沪深300 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.8, maintaining the "Increase" rating for the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of RMB 27 billion for FY25, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, down 42% year-on-year. The gross margin was 38%, a decline of 3.4 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. - The decline in revenue performance was attributed to weak consumer demand and pressure on offline foot traffic, leading to increased promotional efforts and a decrease in profit margins [1]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Despite a 43.5% decline in pre-tax profit, the net cash generated from operating activities grew by 20% to RMB 3.8 billion [2]. - The total number of stores operated by the company decreased by 18.3% to 5,020, with a focus on improving retail service capabilities and store efficiency [3]. - The company is expanding its brand matrix by introducing the high-end running brand SOAR Running to the Chinese market and enhancing its collaboration with the Canadian outdoor brand norda [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was RMB 27 billion, down 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, down 42% year-on-year. The gross margin was 38%, down 3.4 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash and cash equivalents at the fiscal year-end were RMB 2.6 billion, up 32% year-on-year. Operating cash flow increased by 20% to RMB 3.8 billion despite a 43.5% decline in pre-tax profit. The annual dividend payout ratio was 135% [2]. Store Operations - The company operated 5,020 stores at the fiscal year-end, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year. The focus is on enhancing retail service capabilities and improving store efficiency through stricter store opening and renovation criteria [3]. Brand Strategy - The company is introducing SOAR Running to the Chinese market and deepening its partnership with norda, aiming to capture opportunities in the outdoor segment through a comprehensive brand strategy [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues for FY26-28 at RMB 26.5 billion, RMB 27.3 billion, and RMB 28.6 billion, respectively. The expected net profits are RMB 1.3 billion, RMB 1.5 billion, and RMB 1.7 billion for the same periods [5].

Group 1: A-Share Companies and Hong Kong Secondary Listings - A-share companies are increasingly listing in Hong Kong, with 5 companies already listed in 2025 and an expected total of 27 by year-end[34] - The financing scale for A-share companies in Hong Kong has surpassed the entire amount for 2024, indicating a recovery trend[28] - The recent performance of listed A-share companies in Hong Kong shows a median return of 2.76% over 5 days and 5.10% over 10 days, outperforming the overall A-share index[34] Group 2: Market Trends and Financing Conditions - The IPO financing scale in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped to $8.7 billion in 2024 from $48.8 billion in 2023, indicating a significant contraction[10] - In contrast, Hong Kong's IPO financing showed signs of recovery, with a total of 190 financing cases in 2025, surpassing the previous year's total[28] - The A-share market has seen a total of 116 IPOs in 2025, achieving 39% of the total for 2024, with a financing scale of 201.42 billion yuan[18] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics - Hong Kong's regulatory environment is improving, with faster approval processes for A-share companies and a new "Tech Company Fast Track" initiative set to launch in May 2025[32] - The recent trend shows 4 A-H companies experiencing price inversion, where H-shares are priced higher than A-shares, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[36] - The overall financing environment in Hong Kong is expected to improve further due to ongoing regulatory optimizations and increased demand for quality listings[32]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify and recommend industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on specific market conditions and sectoral dynamics [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates industries based on their recovery potential ("distressed reversal sectors") and ongoing trends. It recommends sectors such as Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption industries. Additionally, it highlights sectors like technology (e.g., consumer electronics) and those with upward momentum, such as banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential and aligns with current market trends [2][3][9] 2. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying sectors with high beta characteristics, particularly in the technology domain, to capture growth opportunities [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model emphasizes technology-related sectors, such as consumer electronics, as key areas of focus. It also considers sectors with strong upward momentum, like banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is suitable for identifying high-growth sectors in a market environment characterized by volatility and selective sectoral strength [2][3][9] 3. Model Name: Timing System Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses moving average distances to assess market conditions and provide timing signals for market entry or exit [2][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index - Current data: - 20-day moving average: 5063 - 120-day moving average: 5079 - Distance: -0.32% (short-term moving average below long-term moving average) - The absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, indicating a market in a consolidation phase [2][3][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear and quantitative framework for assessing market trends and timing decisions [2][3][8] 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal portfolio allocation based on valuation metrics and market trends [3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the Wind All A Index's valuation levels: - PE ratio: 60th percentile (moderate level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) - Based on these metrics and short-term market trends, the model recommends a portfolio allocation of 50% for absolute return products [3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances valuation considerations with market dynamics to guide portfolio allocation [3][9] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, new consumption, technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 2. TWO BETA Model - Focus sectors: Technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 3. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: -0.32% (absolute value < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase) [2][3][8] 4. Position Management Model - Recommended portfolio allocation: 50% for absolute return products [3][9]