重点推荐 《策略|AIDC：人工智能发展的核心引擎——产业赛道投资图谱》 AIDC 人工智能发展的核心引擎，根据科智咨询测算，2023-2028 中国智 算中心市场规模年化增速超 25%。1、AI 计算芯片:GPU 主导 AI 计算芯片 市场，国产替代加速。根据中商产业研究院测算，2025 年我国 GPU 市场 规模预计突破 1200 亿元。在美国对华高端计算芯片出口管制持续升级与 国内人工智能产业快速发展的双重驱动下，国产计算芯片产业正迎来战略 性发展机遇。2、存储芯片:我们认为在 AI 算力基建加速落地的背景下， 存储芯片作为支撑数据存算协同的核心硬件，其技术升级与国产化替代已 成为关键投资主线。3、供配电：AI 算力需求激增驱动电源设备升级机遇。 未来，数据中心电源产品系统开始朝集约化、模块化、预制化方向发展。 可关注机柜外电源，柴油发电机，备用电源，变压器等细分领域。4、网 络：算力基建向多机多卡发展，高性能网络决定通信效率。在此架构中， 联接算力节点的高性能网络直接决定了集群通信效率，进而影响整体吞吐 量和算力利用率。5、制冷：单机功率密度攀升驱动散热系统升级，液冷 技术有望成为数据中心的主要选择。 ...

二手房需求分流持续强化。4 月开发投资、土地购置费、土地出让金收入分别同比-10.3%、 -5.9%、-11.4%，较 3 月累计同比增速分别-0.4、-1.4、+4.5pct。三项指标保持较高降速， 前两项指标更领先反映投资端边际变化。而在新房销售阶段性企稳背景下，总量投资收缩似乎 仍较难避免，主要受较重存货影响：根据克而瑞统计，24 年 TOP100 房企总土储货值 25.17 万亿元，较 23 年末下降 13%，去化周期加权值 6.93 年，较 23 年提升 2.04 年；50 家典型 上市房企现房账面价值占存货比 27%，较 23 年末增长 5.6pct。由此视角观察，二手价格下 行压力及新货供给提质对老货去化量价的冲击短期仍会延续，而投资拐点的先决条件需要：1） 价格系统性止跌企稳；2）多数房企库存去化周期稳定于低位区间。故我们认为，二手房的需 求分流及投资端更高的降速或于未来 1-2 年趋势延续。 波动率提升可考虑哑铃策略。截止 5月 23 日，申万地产指数 0.71X pb，中华内房股指数 0.45X pb，估值水平相对低位，但仍高出去年 9 月历史底约 30%。近期诸如降息、城市更新等政策 已 ...

| 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 潘暕 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517070005 panjian@tfzq.com 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 05 月 25 日 许俊峰 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520110003 xujunfeng@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《消费电子-行业研究周报:关税协议 阶段性落地，看好消费电子板块修复机 会》 2025-05-22 2 《消费电子-行业专题研究:英伟达虚 拟仿真技术主导，驱动人形机器人行 业》 2025-05-20 3 《消费电子-行业研究周报:海外科技 股 25Q1：Capex 保持较高强度，看好 AI 算力链修复》 2025-05-13 消费电子 证券研究报告 包恒星 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524100001 baohengxing@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -13% -5% 3% 11% 19% 27% 35% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 消费电子 沪深300 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.8, maintaining the "Increase" rating for the next six months [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company reported a revenue of RMB 27 billion for FY25, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, and a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, down 42% year-on-year. The gross margin was 38%, a decline of 3.4 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. - The decline in revenue performance was attributed to weak consumer demand and pressure on offline foot traffic, leading to increased promotional efforts and a decrease in profit margins [1]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Despite a 43.5% decline in pre-tax profit, the net cash generated from operating activities grew by 20% to RMB 3.8 billion [2]. - The total number of stores operated by the company decreased by 18.3% to 5,020, with a focus on improving retail service capabilities and store efficiency [3]. - The company is expanding its brand matrix by introducing the high-end running brand SOAR Running to the Chinese market and enhancing its collaboration with the Canadian outdoor brand norda [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY25 revenue was RMB 27 billion, down 7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, down 42% year-on-year. The gross margin was 38%, down 3.4 percentage points, and the net margin was 4.8%, down 2.8 percentage points [1]. Cash Flow and Dividends - Cash and cash equivalents at the fiscal year-end were RMB 2.6 billion, up 32% year-on-year. Operating cash flow increased by 20% to RMB 3.8 billion despite a 43.5% decline in pre-tax profit. The annual dividend payout ratio was 135% [2]. Store Operations - The company operated 5,020 stores at the fiscal year-end, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year. The focus is on enhancing retail service capabilities and improving store efficiency through stricter store opening and renovation criteria [3]. Brand Strategy - The company is introducing SOAR Running to the Chinese market and deepening its partnership with norda, aiming to capture opportunities in the outdoor segment through a comprehensive brand strategy [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues for FY26-28 at RMB 26.5 billion, RMB 27.3 billion, and RMB 28.6 billion, respectively. The expected net profits are RMB 1.3 billion, RMB 1.5 billion, and RMB 1.7 billion for the same periods [5].

Group 1: A-Share Companies and Hong Kong Secondary Listings - A-share companies are increasingly listing in Hong Kong, with 5 companies already listed in 2025 and an expected total of 27 by year-end[34] - The financing scale for A-share companies in Hong Kong has surpassed the entire amount for 2024, indicating a recovery trend[28] - The recent performance of listed A-share companies in Hong Kong shows a median return of 2.76% over 5 days and 5.10% over 10 days, outperforming the overall A-share index[34] Group 2: Market Trends and Financing Conditions - The IPO financing scale in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped to $8.7 billion in 2024 from $48.8 billion in 2023, indicating a significant contraction[10] - In contrast, Hong Kong's IPO financing showed signs of recovery, with a total of 190 financing cases in 2025, surpassing the previous year's total[28] - The A-share market has seen a total of 116 IPOs in 2025, achieving 39% of the total for 2024, with a financing scale of 201.42 billion yuan[18] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics - Hong Kong's regulatory environment is improving, with faster approval processes for A-share companies and a new "Tech Company Fast Track" initiative set to launch in May 2025[32] - The recent trend shows 4 A-H companies experiencing price inversion, where H-shares are priced higher than A-shares, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[36] - The overall financing environment in Hong Kong is expected to improve further due to ongoing regulatory optimizations and increased demand for quality listings[32]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to identify and recommend industries with potential for medium-term outperformance based on specific market conditions and sectoral dynamics [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The model evaluates industries based on their recovery potential ("distressed reversal sectors") and ongoing trends. It recommends sectors such as Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption industries. Additionally, it highlights sectors like technology (e.g., consumer electronics) and those with upward momentum, such as banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying sectors with medium-term growth potential and aligns with current market trends [2][3][9] 2. Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying sectors with high beta characteristics, particularly in the technology domain, to capture growth opportunities [2][3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: The TWO BETA model emphasizes technology-related sectors, such as consumer electronics, as key areas of focus. It also considers sectors with strong upward momentum, like banking and gold stocks [2][3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is suitable for identifying high-growth sectors in a market environment characterized by volatility and selective sectoral strength [2][3][9] 3. Model Name: Timing System Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses moving average distances to assess market conditions and provide timing signals for market entry or exit [2][3][8] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index - Current data: - 20-day moving average: 5063 - 120-day moving average: 5079 - Distance: -0.32% (short-term moving average below long-term moving average) - The absolute value of the distance is less than 3%, indicating a market in a consolidation phase [2][3][8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear and quantitative framework for assessing market trends and timing decisions [2][3][8] 4. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines optimal portfolio allocation based on valuation metrics and market trends [3][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the Wind All A Index's valuation levels: - PE ratio: 60th percentile (moderate level) - PB ratio: 10th percentile (low level) - Based on these metrics and short-term market trends, the model recommends a portfolio allocation of 50% for absolute return products [3][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively balances valuation considerations with market dynamics to guide portfolio allocation [3][9] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Industry Allocation Model - Recommended sectors: Hong Kong-listed innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, new consumption, technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 2. TWO BETA Model - Focus sectors: Technology (e.g., consumer electronics), banking, and gold stocks [2][3][9] 3. Timing System Signal - Moving average distance: -0.32% (absolute value < 3%, indicating a consolidation phase) [2][3][8] 4. Position Management Model - Recommended portfolio allocation: 50% for absolute return products [3][9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pet economy in China is rapidly developing, with domestic brands rising quickly. Focus on companies with high domestic income growth. Key recommendations include pet food companies such as Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Petty Co., and Lusi Co. Additionally, attention is suggested for pet medical companies like Ruipu Biology and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [2][16]. Summary by Sections Pet Sector - The 618 shopping festival on Taobao saw significant sales, with 653 pet brands achieving over 100% year-on-year growth in the first hour. Notably, domestic brands like Fresh and Frigat saw sales growth exceeding 200%. The top live-streamer, Li Jiaqi, collaborated with leading domestic brands to offer discounts over 30%, enhancing consumer engagement and brand loyalty [1][15]. - In April 2025, Douyin's pet category sales reached 763 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.77%, with sales volume up 53.35% [1][16]. - Pet food exports from China showed continuous growth, with 110,200 tons exported from January to April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% and generating 3.26 billion yuan in revenue, up 7.21% year-on-year [1][16]. Swine Sector - As of May 24, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China was 14.36 yuan/kg, down 2.84% from the previous week. The industry is facing weak demand, with slaughterhouses showing low inventory levels and a decrease in daily slaughter rates [3][17]. - The sector is characterized by low valuations and expectation discrepancies. The average market value per head for leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs is currently below historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][18]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment is facing uncertainties in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a 34.01% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates from January to April 2025 [5][19]. - The yellow chicken supply is tightening, with prices sensitive to demand changes. The current low inventory levels and potential policy-driven demand recovery could benefit companies like Lihua Co. and Wens Foodstuffs [6][22]. - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices for chicks due to restricted imports, with prices remaining stable at 4.15 yuan/chick as of May 24, 2025 [7][23]. Planting Sector - The Ministry of Agriculture has outlined key support directions for grain and oil production, emphasizing the importance of biotechnology in enhancing crop yields and promoting food security [8][24]. - Recommendations include seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong, and agricultural resource companies like Xinyangfeng [8][25]. Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is highlighted with a focus on Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market recovery and increased market share [9][26]. - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands, with companies like KQ Bio and Zhongmu Co. recommended for their potential in the evolving market landscape [10][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.98 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, up 47.3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% growth [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts and has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the sales expense was 8.34 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 29.79%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were 6.58 billion yuan, with a ratio of 23.52%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase its R&D investment to 8.23 billion yuan in 2024, a 33.8% increase compared to 2023 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 31.34 billion, 35.67 billion, and 40.84 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 7.01 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.43 billion yuan [5][11]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - The innovative drug revenue reached 13.89 billion yuan in 2024, a 31% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates a cumulative revenue target of 130 billion, 295 billion, and 503 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company has a strong product matrix in oncology, metabolism and cardiovascular, immunology and respiratory, and neuroscience, with significant ongoing projects and partnerships [4]. - Recent licensing agreements, such as the one with MSD for the HRS-5346 project, highlight the company's strategic focus on global collaborations, with potential total transaction value of approximately 14 billion USD [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Despite external political turbulence affecting market sentiment, the AI industry is viewed as a key investment theme for the year, with expectations for continued high prosperity in the AI sector and the AIDC industry chain [3][31] - Oracle's significant investment of approximately $40 billion to purchase 400,000 Nvidia GB200 chips for a new data center supporting OpenAI highlights the competitive landscape in AI infrastructure [12][14] - The introduction of Broadcom's third-generation 200G/lane CPO solution signifies advancements in optical technology, which are crucial for AI-driven applications [20][21] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology in the optical module and optical device sector [4][34] - For switch server PCBs, recommended stocks include Huadian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][34] - Low valuation and high dividend stocks in cloud and computing resources are highlighted, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [4][34] - In AIDC and cooling solutions, key recommendations include Yingweike and Runze Technology [4][34] - For AIGC applications and edge computing, recommended stocks are Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [4][34] 2. Offshore Wind and Marine Cable - Key recommendations in the marine cable sector include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][35] - The recovery of overseas markets and concentration on leading companies is emphasized, with recommendations for companies like Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [5][35] 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The acceleration of low-orbit satellite development and low-altitude economy is noted, with key recommendations for companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][36] 4. Recent Industry Dynamics - Oracle's procurement of Nvidia chips for AI data centers and the establishment of a new data center in the UAE as part of the Stargate project indicates a significant push in AI infrastructure [12][14] - Broadcom's advancements in CPO technology are crucial for supporting large-scale AI clusters, showcasing the importance of optical interconnect technology in the AI sector [20][21] 5. Market Performance - The communication sector experienced a decline of 1.93% in the week of May 19-23, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [37]

证券研究报告 2025年05月25日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 AGI率先落地：无人驾驶出租车 作者： 分析师 孙潇雅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110520080009 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 汽车 摘要 Robotaxi，即无人驾驶出租车，支持L4级（高度自动驾驶）和L5级（完全自动驾驶）自动驾驶技术。我们预计2025年或是Robotaxi的元年。 政策端，对Robotaxi的法律法规愈加完善： 中国：全国性政策给出Robotaxi准入和上路途径，允许其在特定区域、特定时段进行商业化试运营；地方性政策则进一步对车辆安全员、事 故权责划分等进行规定。 美国：推出AV-STEP框架，对Robotaxi的申报、事故认定上报等进行详细规定。 用户体验端，Robotaxi较传统出租车或网约车更具有吸引力： 根据弗若斯特沙利文，中国网约车市场规模预计有望从2023年2550亿上涨到2030年8003亿，Robotaxi市场规模则有望接近5000亿，在智慧出 行中的渗透率达到32%。 投资建议： Robotaxi厂商：建议关注技术实力强的【 ...