行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 21 周周报：淘宝 618 正式开售，国货霸榜！宠物品牌谁主沉浮? 1、宠物板块：跟进宠物 618，哪些亮点？ 1）淘宝 618 开售，头部主播宠物直播间热销，国产品牌持续崛起。①首小时战况如何？5 月 16 日晚 8 点，天猫 618 正式开卖。首小时， 653 个宠物品牌成交同比翻倍，鲜朗成交增长超 220%，大宠爱、弗列加特等品牌成交增长近 200%；9 个宠物品牌成交破千万，其中弗列 加特等 7 大品牌系国产，5 个宠物主粮单品成交破千万。②头部主播选品及折扣如何？以头部主播李佳琦为例，根据中国经营报数据， 在天猫宠物达人带货成交排行榜中，李佳琦直播间位列榜首。本次 618 活动中，李佳琪联动麦富迪、弗列加特、领先等国产头部品牌推 出超 30%折扣让利策略（天风农业测算，与日常价格对比），并设置高价值互动激励（如麦富迪 B ARF 主食冻干、弗列加特全价鲜肉烘焙 猫粮等爆品抽奖），锚定"品质+性价比"双核心撬动消费决策。我们认为，此次活动不仅推动短 期销售放量，更通过场景化种草强化用 户心智，为品牌构筑长效增长引擎。此外，2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The new tobacco market continues to grow, with heated tobacco products leading in market size and nicotine pouches experiencing the fastest growth [2][3] - The global tobacco market is undergoing significant changes, with Japan's tobacco business expanding rapidly [4] - The global supply of tobacco leaves is facing shortages, leading to widespread price increases across the industry [14] Summary by Sections Electronic Cigarettes - In 2024, global e-cigarette sales are projected to reach $23.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [3] - Sales of disposable e-cigarettes grew by 18.9% to 840 million units, generating $6.42 billion in revenue, up 19.6% [3] - Open system e-cigarettes saw sales of 85.16 million devices and 12.23 million liters of e-liquid, with revenues of $2.62 billion and $5.49 billion respectively [3] Traditional Tobacco Products - Traditional oral tobacco products, including chewing and snuff tobacco, are experiencing a decline, with 2024 sales expected to drop by 0.8% to 115,000 tons [3] - Revenue from traditional oral tobacco is projected to decrease by 0.1% to $13.82 billion [3] Nicotine Pouches - Nicotine pouch sales are expected to grow by 36.9% to 21.23 billion pouches in 2024, with revenue reaching $11.25 billion, a 51.0% increase [3] - The United States leads in nicotine pouch sales with 13.88 billion pouches sold [3] Heated Tobacco Products - Sales of heated tobacco products are projected to grow by 12.7% to $38.85 billion in 2024 [3] - The volume of heated tobacco devices sold is expected to increase by 11.7% to 45.26 million units, with revenue rising by 14.7% to $2.44 billion [3] Company Performance - Philip Morris International reported a net income of $14.66 billion from its smoke-free products, a 14.2% increase, accounting for 38.7% of total revenue [5] - British American Tobacco's Vuse e-cigarette sales declined by 5.9% to 616 million units, impacted by illegal disposable e-cigarettes in the U.S. [6] - Japan Tobacco's Ploom brand heated tobacco sales grew by 24.2% to 218,000 boxes, primarily driven by the Ploom X model [7] Market Dynamics - The global tobacco market is experiencing intense competition, with multinational companies showing divergent growth patterns [4] - The supply chain for tobacco is under pressure due to climate-related shortages and rising prices [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.98 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.34 billion yuan, up 47.3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.21 billion yuan, a 20.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 36.9% growth [1][2]. - The company is accelerating its internationalization efforts and has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the sales expense was 8.34 billion yuan, with a sales expense ratio of 29.79%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were 6.58 billion yuan, with a ratio of 23.52%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to increase its R&D investment to 8.23 billion yuan in 2024, a 33.8% increase compared to 2023 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 31.34 billion, 35.67 billion, and 40.84 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 7.01 billion, 8.05 billion, and 9.43 billion yuan [5][11]. Product Pipeline and Market Position - The innovative drug revenue reached 13.89 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 31% year-on-year increase. The company anticipates a cumulative revenue target of 130 billion, 295 billion, and 503 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company has a strong product matrix in oncology, metabolism and cardiovascular, immunology and respiratory, and neuroscience, with significant ongoing projects and partnerships [4]. - Recent licensing agreements, such as the deal with MSD for the Lp(a) oral small molecule project, highlight the company's strategic focus on global partnerships and revenue generation [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.99 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.10 yuan in 2025 and 1.26 yuan in 2026 [11][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 54.21 in 2024 to 49.00 in 2025, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.892 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 403 million yuan, up 15.67% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 918 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.71%, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, growing 1.99% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by its core products, particularly the ALK inhibitor Ensartinib, which has been included in the medical insurance directory and received clinical guideline recommendations [3][5]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.702 billion, 4.516 billion, and 5.162 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 661 million, 930 million, and 1.030 billion yuan in the same years [6][12]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 1.324 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.17% [12][13]. Cost Management - In 2024, the company increased its sales expenses to 1.094 billion yuan, a 28.10% increase from 2023, while R&D expenses decreased to 502 million yuan, down 8.7 percentage points [2][4]. - The management expenses for 2024 were reported at 269 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its product portfolio in the lung cancer field, with four candidates in development targeting EGFR mutations [4]. - The strategic cooperation for the commercialization of plant-derived recombinant human serum albumin injection has been accepted for priority review by NMPA [4]. Market Position - The company’s core product, Ensartinib, is expected to see robust growth due to its long treatment duration and favorable competitive landscape, especially in the post-operative adjuvant indication [3][5]. - The company is also advancing its international commercialization efforts, with Ensartinib approved for ALK-positive NSCLC in the U.S. and undergoing EMA listing procedures [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.46 HKD per share, based on a comprehensive valuation of its business segments [5][74]. Core Views - The company operates as a clean energy platform in Hebei, focusing on natural gas sales and wind power generation, with significant installed capacity and a diverse project portfolio across multiple provinces [12][21]. - The company's performance is expected to recover in 2025, with a projected net profit of 25.49 billion HKD, reflecting a substantial increase of 52.40% compared to the previous year [73]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading clean energy developer in North China, established in 2010, focusing on integrating natural gas and renewable energy assets [12][18]. 2. Wind Power - The company has a significant installed wind power capacity of 6.5874 million kW, with a focus on projects in Hebei and surrounding regions [21][48]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 is 0.43 CNY per kWh, maintaining stability compared to the previous year [50]. - The company is actively developing offshore wind projects, with a total of 2 million kW capacity under approval [55]. 3. Natural Gas - The total gas transmission and sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 5.888 billion cubic meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.13% [59]. - The LNG terminal project is expected to enhance revenue, with the first phase already operational and the second phase progressing well [63][64]. - The company completed LNG sales of approximately 1.123 billion cubic meters in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [64]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 22.407 billion, 24.034 billion, and 26.960 billion HKD from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.549 billion, 2.516 billion, and 2.990 billion HKD [73]. - The target market values for the natural gas and wind power segments are estimated at 7.030 billion HKD and 15.946 billion HKD, respectively, leading to a combined market value of 22.976 billion HKD [74].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.46 HKD per share, based on a comprehensive valuation of its natural gas and wind power segments [5][74]. Core Insights - The company operates as a clean energy platform in Hebei, focusing on natural gas sales and wind power generation, with significant installed capacity and a diverse project portfolio across multiple provinces [12][21]. - The company's wind power segment is expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and a strong project pipeline, particularly in offshore wind projects [2][52]. - The natural gas segment faces short-term challenges but has potential for growth with the upcoming commissioning of the second phase of the LNG terminal [3][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading clean energy developer in North China, established in 2010, focusing on integrating natural gas and renewable energy assets [12][18]. 2. Wind Power - The company has a substantial wind power capacity of 6.5874 million kW, with a focus on projects in Hebei and a strong market position due to favorable trading policies [2][21]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 is 0.43 CNY/kWh, maintaining stability compared to the previous year, with a market transaction volume ratio of 44.71% [50][48]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, including 430.99 million kW of approved but unconstructed projects, with a significant focus on offshore wind development [52][55]. 3. Natural Gas - The total gas transmission and sales volume for 2024 is projected at 5.888 billion cubic meters, reflecting a 15.13% year-on-year increase, although Q4 2024 shows a decline of 24.43% [3][59]. - The LNG terminal project is progressing, with the first phase operational and the second phase expected to enhance capacity significantly, targeting a total unloading capacity of 10 million tons per year [63][64]. - The natural gas segment's revenue for 2024 is estimated at 15.004 billion CNY, with a gross profit margin of 3.52%, indicating pressure on profitability [3][59]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 22.407 billion CNY, 24.034 billion CNY, and 26.960 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.549 billion CNY, 2.516 billion CNY, and 2.990 billion CNY [73][74]. - The target market values for the natural gas and wind power segments are estimated at 7.030 billion HKD and 15.946 billion HKD, respectively, leading to a combined market value of 22.976 billion HKD [74][76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.892 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.74%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 403 million yuan, up 15.67% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit reached 410 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 55.92% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 918 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.71%, with a net profit of 100 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.99% [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing management efficiency by streamlining R&D expenses while increasing sales promotion efforts, with sales expenses for 2024 amounting to 1.094 billion yuan, a 28.10% increase from 2023 [2]. Financial Performance - The company expects revenues of 3.702 billion yuan, 4.516 billion yuan, and 5.162 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 661 million yuan in 2025, 930 million yuan in 2026, and 1.030 billion yuan in 2027 [6][12]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 1.324 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.17% for 2024 [12][13]. Product Development and Market Position - The company's core product, the ALK inhibitor Ensartinib, is experiencing steady growth due to its long treatment duration and has been included in the medical insurance directory for first-line treatment of ALK-positive NSCLC [3]. - The company is actively expanding its product portfolio in the lung cancer field, with four candidates in development, including MCLA-129 and CFT8919, aimed at enhancing its competitive edge [4]. - Several products are nearing commercialization, including Ensartinib, which has received approval for first-line treatment in the U.S. and is progressing well in clinical trials [5].

金融工程 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 金融工程 | 金工定期报告 韩乾 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110522100001 hanqian@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：金融工程-因子跟踪周 报：换手率、季度 sp 分位数因子表现较 好-20250524》 2025-05-24 2 《金融工程：金融工程-大模型总结 和解读行业研报（ 2025W20 ）》 2025-05-19 3 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报：等待缩量》 2025-05-18 基金季报中披露有基金前十大重仓股，同时企业季度报告中披露有企业的 前十大股东信息（主要使用上市公司 1、3 季度十大股东信息），结合这两 部分信息我们可以得到基金持仓更加详细的重仓股信息。因此模拟全部股 票持仓只需要估计基金剩余的非重仓持股明细。 基金季报（T 期）披露有股票持仓的证监会行业配置信息，基金最近（T-1 期）半年报、年报会披露全部股票持仓，可得基金半年报、年报末非重仓 股持仓信息。假设基金非重仓 ...

Group 1: AIDC Overview - AIDC is a computing infrastructure built on artificial intelligence computing architecture, integrating high-performance computing equipment, high-speed networks, and advanced software systems to provide an efficient and stable computing environment for AI training and inference [1][10] - The core components of AIDC include computing devices, storage devices, network devices, power supply systems, and cooling systems, which collectively support powerful computing capabilities, efficient data processing, and various AI applications [10][11] Group 2: Market Trends and Policy Support - The AIDC market is expected to grow significantly, with an annual growth rate exceeding 25% from 2023 to 2028, leading to a market size of over 280 billion yuan by 2028 [16] - AIDC's policy support features three main characteristics: multi-departmental collaboration, full-cycle coverage, and a focus on technological self-sufficiency, with various policies established since 2017 to strengthen AI data center development [14][15] Group 3: AIDC Market Performance - AIDC has experienced three significant phases of excess returns from 2018 to 2025, driven by policy initiatives, technological breakthroughs, and the competitive landscape of AI models [2][27] - The first phase (2019-2020) saw a cumulative increase of 110% in computing infrastructure, while the second phase (2022-2023) recorded a 50% increase, and the upcoming phase (2024-2025) is expected to be driven by heightened demand for computing power due to AI model competition [2][24][25] Group 4: Industry Chain Overview - In the AI computing chip sector, GPUs dominate the market with a share of approximately 90%, and the market size for GPUs in China is projected to exceed 120 billion yuan by 2025 [30][34] - The storage chip market, supported by DRAM and NAND flash, is entering a recovery phase driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth storage due to AI model training [42][43] - The power supply and cooling systems are also evolving to meet the rising demands of AI computing, with opportunities in modular and prefabricated solutions for power supply and liquid cooling technologies becoming more prevalent [4][5][29] Group 5: Business Models in AIDC - AIDC encompasses four core business models: IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service), PaaS (Platform as a Service), SaaS (Software as a Service), and MaaS (Model as a Service), catering to various customer needs from infrastructure hosting to customized AI model services [22][26] - The diverse stakeholders in the AIDC ecosystem include local governments, internet and cloud service providers, third-party IDC service providers, and AI enterprises, each with distinct strategic goals and resource advantages [19][20]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Continued optimism for infrastructure investment in central and western regions, with a focus on the subsequent realization of physical workload [1][13] - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for future policy efforts, with significant growth in narrow and broad infrastructure investments offsetting declines in real estate [2][13] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved physical workload conversion due to rising orders from central and state-owned enterprises [3][18] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first four months of 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 4% year-on-year, with real estate development down by 10.3%, narrow infrastructure up by 5.8%, broad infrastructure up by 10.9%, and manufacturing up by 8.8% [2][13] - Narrow infrastructure growth outpaced overall investment growth by 1.8%, contributing 32.6% to total investment growth, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from Q1 [2][13] - Significant regional investment growth was observed in Beijing (+21.2%), Inner Mongolia (+18.8%), Xinjiang (+17.2%), and Tibet (+16.5%) [14][17] Market Performance - The construction index fell by 1.11% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.07% [4][22] - Notable stock performances included Palm Holdings (+31.82%), ST Lingnan (+27.61%), and Zhengzhong Design (+22.78%) [4][22] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities arising from improvements in physical workload, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation sectors [26] - Recommendations include regional state-owned enterprises with high growth potential such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [26][27] - Emphasis on emerging business directions such as AI-driven computing power and cleanroom sectors, with specific recommendations for companies like Hainan Huatie and Baicheng [28][29]