[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 27 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] | 国内市场表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,346.84 | -0.05% | | 深证成指 | 10,091.16 | -0.41% | | 沪深 300 | 3,860.11 | -0.57% | | 科创 50 | 982.26 | 0.17% | | 创业板指 | 2,005.26 | -0.80% | | 上证 50 | 2,699.42 | -0.46% | | 上证 180 | 8,552.64 | -0.35% | | 上证基金 | 6,902.69 | -0.05% | | 国债指数 | 224.62 | 0.02% | | [Table_InterIndex] | 国际市场表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | ...

万联证券版权所有发送给杭州同花顺数据开发有限公司 .同花顺.yjbg@myhexin.com p1 | | | | --- | --- | | IHA LEZ | WANLIAN SECURITIES | 一季度业绩回暖，专业服务表现出色 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业 2025Q1 业绩综述报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 社会服务板块一季度业绩稳步增长，盈利能力持续提升。2025Q1 上市 公司业绩出炉，社会服务板块增收增利，营业收入合计 445.87 亿元， 同比增长 3.99%，在申万一级行业中排名第 12；归母净利润合计 17.82 亿元，同比增长 5.14%，在申万一级行业中排名第 16。 旅游及景区板块：2025 年第一季度旅游及景区板块实现营收 73.42 亿 元，同比+3.83%，归母净利润 3.45 亿元，同比-16.46%。在居民旅游出 行需求持续复苏以及政策支持的双重驱动下，旅游及景区公司营收回 暖。从十一黄金周旅游数据来看，二三线城市居民逐渐成为出游主力， 小众目的地仍受追求旅游需求多元化的年轻群体追捧，低线 ...

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.94% to 3348.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.18%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.18 trillion RMB, with over 4200 stocks declining. Only the automotive, pharmaceutical, and basic chemical industries saw gains, while the computer industry led the declines [1][6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.24%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 0.09%. Internationally, all three major US indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.61%, the S&P 500 down by 0.67%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.00%. European stock markets also saw declines, while the Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results [1][6] Important News - The People's Bank of China announced that funds raised from overseas listings, as well as funds from the reduction or transfer of shares, should generally be returned to the domestic market. This is part of efforts to improve and unify the management of cross-border funds related to domestic companies directly listed overseas [2][7] - US President Trump suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, 2025, although products manufactured in the US would be exempt from these tariffs [2][7] Industry Analysis - The first quarter of 2025 showed a rebound in A-share performance, with a year-on-year increase of 89.76% in net profit attributable to shareholders, marking a significant improvement compared to the previous quarter [8] - The retail sales of consumer goods in April 2025 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to March. The total retail sales reached 37,174 billion RMB [12][16] - The performance of various sectors showed divergence, with the consumer goods sector benefiting from domestic consumption policies, particularly in the automotive and home appliance industries [10][11][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as technology and consumer goods, particularly in the automotive and home appliance industries, which are expected to benefit from expanding domestic demand [11][16] - The report highlights the importance of companies with stable profit models and core competitive advantages, especially in the context of improving market sentiment and reducing short-term volatility [11]

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares in 2024 showed a decline in net profit, but a recovery was observed in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 89.76% compared to a decrease of 2.34% in 2024 [4][18][15] - The revenue of all A-share listed companies in 2024 decreased by 0.83%, while the revenue in Q1 2025 saw a significant decline of 12.37% compared to the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since 2023 [4][18][15] - The performance of major indices varied, with the ChiNext index showing a notable recovery in net profit, growing by 5.63% in 2024, while the Shanghai Composite Index's net profit increased by 8.15% [21][22][4] Group 2 - The expansion of domestic demand policies has positively impacted the consumer sector, with industries such as automotive and home appliances experiencing significant growth in net profit, exceeding 5% year-on-year [6][29][30] - In Q1 2025, 17 out of 31 industries reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, with the electronics industry leading with a growth rate of 17.81% [33][35][36] - The TMT sector showed a comprehensive recovery, with the computer industry achieving a remarkable net profit growth of 652.14% in Q1 2025 [33][36][31] Group 3 - The report suggests focusing on technology growth sectors, particularly in electronics and communications, which are expected to maintain high levels of prosperity and improved performance [10][42] - The consumer sector, especially in automotive and home appliances, is highlighted for its potential due to cost advantages and rapid demand expansion [10][42] - The cyclical sector is anticipated to maintain an improving trend, with the real estate industry's decline expected to narrow, presenting valuation recovery potential [10][42]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.22% to close at 3,380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.96%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.10 trillion RMB, with over 4,200 stocks declining. Only the banking, media, and household appliance sectors saw gains, while the beauty care and social services sectors led the losses. Concept sectors such as mobile gaming and terahertz technology performed well, while epoxy propylene and graphite electrode concepts faced significant declines. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.70%. Internationally, the U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones remaining flat, the S&P 500 down by 0.04%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.28%. European and Asia-Pacific markets also experienced declines [2][6]. Important News - The tax reduction bill proposed by U.S. President Trump passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin on May 22. The bill aims to reduce taxes by over 4 trillion USD over the next decade and cut at least 1.5 trillion USD in spending. It will also raise the U.S. debt ceiling by 4 trillion USD, which is lower than the 5 trillion USD sought by the Senate [3][7]. - Xiaomi held its 15th-anniversary strategic product launch on May 22, unveiling three new products equipped with its self-developed Xuanjie chip: the Xiaomi 15S Pro, Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, and Xiaomi Watch S4 15th Anniversary Edition. The highly anticipated Xiaomi YU7, the company's first SUV, was also officially launched, positioned as a "luxury high-performance SUV" with features like laser radar and extended battery life, set to be released in July. Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun stated that the company has committed to chip development for at least 10 years with an investment of over 50 billion RMB, and plans to invest an additional 200 billion RMB in core technology research and development over the next five years [3][7].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to close at 3,387.57 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.83%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.17 trillion RMB, with around 3,400 stocks declining. The coal and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged behind. Concept sectors such as graphite electrodes and recombinant protein saw significant increases [2][6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed up by 0.62% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.51%. Conversely, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 1.91%, the S&P 500 down by 1.61%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.41%. Most European and Asia-Pacific markets saw gains [2][6] Important News - On May 21, the National Financial Supervision Administration and seven other departments issued measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises. These measures aim to improve the financing conditions for small businesses by enhancing regulatory, monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies. A total of 23 specific measures were proposed to increase financing supply, reduce overall financing costs, improve efficiency, and ensure precise support [3][7] - The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce commented on the U.S. attempt to globally ban advanced computing chips from China, including specific Huawei chips. The spokesperson criticized the U.S. actions as unilateral bullying and protectionism, which severely disrupts the global semiconductor supply chain and undermines the rights of other countries to develop advanced computing and AI technologies. The statement emphasized that any organization or individual assisting in the enforcement of U.S. measures may face legal consequences under Chinese law [4][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The real estate industry investment has weakened in April, with construction starts and completions remaining at low levels. Sales are expected to experience a seasonal decline, indicating a bottoming phase that requires ongoing monitoring of future trends. A series of financial policies continue to support the industry's recovery, with domestic loan funding turning positive year-on-year from January to April. Policies such as interest rate cuts and financing support are expected to improve the industry's financial situation [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Investment - The investment sector has seen a more significant decline, with real estate development investment down by 10.3% year-on-year from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to previous values. The investment growth rate for April alone fell by 11.5%, widening the decline by 1.2 percentage points from March. The industry continues to deplete inventory, and factors such as sales and funding challenges hinder the replenishment of inventory, leading to a weak investment outlook in the short term [2]. Land - Core cities remain the primary investment areas, with land transactions in 100 cities showing a recovery. From January to April, the total transaction price of land in these cities increased by 8.8% year-on-year, while the planned construction area decreased by 10.1%. In April, both the planned construction area and total transaction price saw a month-on-month increase, with a land transaction premium rate of 9.7%, maintaining a relatively high level for the year [2]. Construction Starts and Completions - New construction starts and completions remain low. From January to April, the area of new construction started decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, with a slight narrowing of the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q1. In April, the monthly decline was 22.3%, widening by 3.5 percentage points from the previous month. The completion sector is expected to remain under pressure due to declining sales and new construction, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% from January to April and a significant drop of 28.2% in April alone [2]. Sales - The sales sector experienced a seasonal decline month-on-month, with year-on-year changes of -2.8% in sales area and -3.2% in sales amount from January to April. The sales price also saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with a more pronounced drop of 4.3% in April compared to the same month last year [3]. Funding - Under policy support, the growth rate of domestic loans has turned positive. From January to April, the sources of funds saw a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, with domestic loans increasing by 0.8%, while self-raised funds, deposits, and personal mortgages saw declines of 6.8%, 3.0%, and 8.5% respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase in the industry index relative to the broader market by over 10% in the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The licensing agreement between the specific company and Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 is expected to set a new benchmark for Chinese biopharmaceutical license-out deals, with an upfront payment of $1.25 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $4.8 billion [1][2]. - SSGJ-707 has shown promising clinical results in treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), achieving high objective response rates (ORR) and disease control rates (DCR), and has been recognized as a breakthrough therapy by the NMPA [2]. - The transaction highlights the increasing recognition of Chinese technology and products by multinational corporations (MNCs), as they seek to fill pipeline gaps due to patent expirations [2]. Summary by Sections Event Summary - On May 20, the specific company announced a licensing agreement with Pfizer for SSGJ-707, retaining rights in mainland China while granting Pfizer rights for global development and commercialization [1]. Investment Highlights - The PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody SSGJ-707 is a focal point for multinational pharmaceutical companies due to its dual-target mechanism, showing significant anti-tumor activity and safety in clinical trials [2]. - The agreement is expected to accelerate the company's research and development efforts and enhance its ability to commercialize products internationally [2]. Market Trends - The Chinese innovative drug market is projected to grow, with a significant increase in license-out transactions, reflecting the rising importance of Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the global market [3][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The net profit of commercial banks decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing respective growth rates of 0.1%, -4.5%, -6.7%, and -2% [5]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q1 2025 was 1.43%, reflecting a decrease of 9 basis points (BP) quarter-on-quarter, but the decline was less severe than the 15 BP drop seen in Q1 2024 [5]. - The total assets of commercial banks grew at a stable rate of 7.2% year-on-year as of the end of Q1 2025, with state-owned banks and rural commercial banks experiencing slight decreases in growth rates [5]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.51% and a provision coverage ratio of 208.13% as of the end of Q1 2025, although the provision coverage ratio saw a decline of 3.06 percentage points [6]. Summary by Sections Net Profit and Growth - Commercial banks' net profit growth was under pressure, particularly from non-listed banks, with state-owned banks showing slight resilience [5]. - The overall asset growth rate remained stable, with variations among different types of banks [5]. Net Interest Margin - The NIM decreased by 9 BP quarter-on-quarter, indicating a lessening of pressure compared to the previous year [5]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio was reported at 1.51%, with a slight increase in the NPL generation rate, while the provision coverage ratio decreased [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that high fiscal deposits provide room for future growth, and the focus should be on the implementation of monetary policies and the recovery of demand from households [7]. - The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, indicating defensive characteristics in the short term [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.4% to 3367.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.19% [1][7] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 1.09 trillion yuan, with over 2800 stocks rising [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, the automotive and machinery equipment sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [1][7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.46% to 23345.05 points, while the US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.78%, S&P 500 up 0.70%, and Nasdaq up 0.52% [1][7] Important News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved amendments to the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," which will take effect immediately. Key changes include the establishment of a phased payment mechanism for restructuring shares, an increase in regulatory tolerance for financial condition changes, and the introduction of a simplified review process for certain restructuring transactions [2][8] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued a revised "Regulations on Strictly Saving and Opposing Waste by Party and Government Agencies," emphasizing the importance of frugality and responsibility in government spending [5][9] Industry Insights - In April, India's diamond import value turned positive year-on-year, with lab-grown diamond rough imports increasing by 55% to 0.91 billion USD, while natural diamond rough imports also showed a positive year-on-year change [10][12] - The penetration rate of lab-grown diamonds in India's export market rose to 9.08%, up by 2.32 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a growing acceptance of these products [12] - The beauty and personal care sector saw a slight increase in fund allocation in Q1 2025, with the total market capitalization of the sector reaching 254.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.38% increase from the previous quarter [19][20] - The personal care and medical beauty sub-sectors are currently in an overweight position, while the cosmetics sector has reached a historical low in allocation [20][21] Strategic Collaborations - Huawei and UBTECH signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement to deepen collaboration in humanoid robotics, focusing on the development of intelligent technologies and multi-scenario applications [14][15] - Tencent Cloud and Yujian Technology also signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance humanoid robot technology development, aiming to reduce costs and accelerate industrialization [16][17]