Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" with a maintained rating from the previous assessment [4][9] Core Insights - The recent regulatory updates aim to enhance investor-centric practices in the public fund sales sector, focusing on long-term performance and transparency [2][3] - The new guidelines restrict short-term performance marketing and emphasize the importance of long-term investor returns, which may lead to a shift in sales strategies within the industry [3] - The regulatory framework is designed to align the interests of fund managers with those of investors, promoting a high-quality development trajectory for the industry [3] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new sales regulations include requirements for performance display periods to exceed six months and prohibit the showcasing of annualized returns for periods shorter than one year [2] - Sales models, particularly live sales, will be regulated to ensure compliance and professionalism, requiring certified personnel and a comprehensive management mechanism [2] - Fee transparency is mandated, with clear definitions and disclosures regarding service fees and commissions to enhance market fairness [2] Performance Assessment - The performance evaluation of sales institutions must incorporate investor profit and loss metrics, with a significant focus on long-term holding periods rather than short-term sales figures [3] - The guidelines promote a differentiated assessment system within fund management companies, ensuring that long-term investment returns are prioritized [3] Market Outlook - The industry is expected to experience a shift towards a more sustainable and investor-focused model, with short-term performance-driven sales strategies facing pressure for adjustment [3] - The overall market performance of the non-bank financial sector has shown fluctuations, with a recent relative performance of -1.99% over one month and 2.70% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].

Core Insights - The approval of the first provincial UHV project in Zhejiang and accelerated progress in controllable nuclear fusion commercialization are significant developments in the power equipment sector [2][63] - The total investment for the Zhejiang UHV AC ring network project is 29.3 billion RMB, marking it as the highest investment and largest single project in China's UHV AC engineering history [63] - The report recommends companies such as Pinggao Electric, Shunhua Electric, and Huaming Equipment in the power equipment sector, while suggesting attention to Tebian Electric [2] - For controllable nuclear fusion, Xuch Electric is recommended, with additional focus on companies like New Wind Power, Saijing Technology, Guoguang Electric, Hailu Heavy Industry, and Yongding Co [2] Industry Developments - The global opening of the ITER organization's core simulation tool IMAS is expected to accelerate the commercialization of fusion energy [2] - Huadian Energy has released new regulations for wind and solar investment mergers, requiring a minimum internal rate of return of 6.5% for capital in domestic and foreign wind and solar projects [3] - The energy storage sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 80% in procurement capacity in November, with a total scale of 11.5 GW/33.5 GWh [3] - The establishment of a photovoltaic storage platform company aims to regulate the photovoltaic industry by storing approximately 1 million tons of outdated capacity [4] Market Trends - In November, the sales of new energy vehicles in ten major European countries increased by 38.8% month-on-month, with a total of 290,000 units sold [25] - The report highlights the stable pricing of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, indicating a steady market despite fluctuations in demand [10][11][14] - The report notes that the prices of lithium salts and ternary materials have shown mixed changes, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to 94,500 RMB per ton [47]

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the communication industry leading the gains. The U.S. has allowed Nvidia to export H200 chips to China, which is expected to drive incremental demand for communication equipment. The domestic GPU leader, Moore Threads, has gone public, boosting sentiment in the computing power sector. Currently, the overall dynamic PE of the communication industry is at the historical 36.6% percentile, while the communication equipment sector's dynamic PE is at the historical 97.9% percentile, indicating high profit growth expectations [1][8][10]. A-share Valuation Overview - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 22.14 times last week to 21.74 times this week, while the PB (LF) fell from 2.15 times to 1.77 times [10][12]. - The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext board decreased from 79.84 times to 72.27 times, and the PB (LF) dropped from 4.74 times to 4.27 times [18][20]. - The PE (TTM) of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board decreased from 255.36 times to 210.87 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 6.29 times to 5.17 times [22][24]. Relative Valuation Expansion in Computing Power Infrastructure - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators and resource sectors, increased from 4.24 times last week to 4.47 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) rose from 4.42 times to 4.66 times [24][26]. Major Sector Valuation Levels - From a static PE (TTM) perspective, sectors such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and midstream manufacturing exceeding the historical 90th percentile. Conversely, essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with financial services, essential consumer, and services sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28][29]. - In terms of PB (LF), resource, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing sectors have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while consumer discretionary, midstream materials, financial services, services, consumer staples, and essential consumer sectors have absolute and relative valuations below the historical median, with consumer staples and essential consumer sectors below the historical 10th percentile [28][29]. Industry Performance and Profitability - Current industries such as agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [54]. - Industries like building materials, power equipment, media, defense, and basic chemicals show both low valuations and high performance growth [57]. ERP and Equity-Debt Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.83% last week to 0.87% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.15% to -0.12% [58][62].

宏观周报 坚持内需主导，政策更加有为 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 核心结论 中央经济工作会议：坚持内需主导，政策更加有为。12 月 10 日至 11 日中 央经济工作会议召开。会议指出，当前经济发展面临问题和挑战，但长期向 好趋势不变。我们预计 2026 年经济增长目标定在 5%左右。2026 年将实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，增量政策和存量政策协同发力，继续实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。我们预计 2026 年一般预算赤字率维 持 4%左右，广义政府融资规模较 2025 年进一步增加，相对 GDP 比例可能 保持基本稳定；公开市场操作利率和 LPR 下调 10 个 bp 左右。会议对 2026 年经济工作提出八方面主要任务，其中"坚持内需主导"放在 2026 年经济 工作任务首位。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，有助于促进物价回升。此外，会 议还提出稳定房地产市场，加强民生保障，着力稳就业等方面任务。 中观产业跟踪：工业需求平淡，黑色系走弱，焦煤焦炭价格大跌，受下游钢 厂需求下滑、炼焦煤进口增长、反内卷不及预期等因素影响；南华玻璃价格 周跌超 8%。相比之下，美联储降息预期落地，有 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 2026 经济开局定调+美联储降息扩表，看好有色景气上行 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 有色金属行业周报（2025.12.8 -2025.12.14） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：政治局会议定调明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策 2026 年经济工作的政策基调已经明确，会议指出，做好明年经济 工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协 同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜 发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重 点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实 现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五 五"良好开局。2026 年是"十五五"开局之年，政策取向将直接 影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。政策基调将更为积极，重点 解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，通过更加精准有效的政策组合拳， 激发经济增长新动能。 本周核心关注二：美联储继续降息，同时重启扩表 12 月 11 日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 0.25 个百分点至 3.5%-3.75%，符合市场预期。其中声明新 ...

- The report provides weekly performance statistics for quantitative public funds, showing that the average excess return of CSI 300 enhanced index funds was 0.21%, with 71.62% of funds achieving positive excess returns, while CSI A500 enhanced index funds had an average excess return of -0.04%, with 45.59% of funds achieving positive excess returns[1][8] - Monthly performance data indicates that as of December 12, 2025, the average excess return of CSI 300 enhanced index funds was 0.33%, with 75.34% of funds achieving positive excess returns, while CSI 1000 enhanced index funds had an average excess return of 0.25%, with 65.22% of funds achieving positive excess returns[2][8] - Year-to-date (YTD) performance data shows that as of December 12, 2025, the average excess return of CSI 1000 enhanced index funds was 7.52%, with 89.13% of funds achieving positive excess returns, while active quantitative funds had an average return of 26.64%, with 97.51% of funds achieving positive returns[3][8] - The report includes detailed performance distribution and scatter plots for quantitative public funds, highlighting the absolute and excess performance of various fund categories over the past year[9][12][19] - The cumulative net value trends of quantitative public fund portfolios, including enhanced index funds and active quantitative products, are presented for the current year and the past two years, showing the performance dynamics over time[17][20][26]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Hangya Technology (688510.SH), with a target price of 31.2 yuan based on a 40x valuation for 2026 [2][4][15]. Core Insights - Hangya Technology focuses on precision forging technology, specializing in key components for aircraft engines and medical orthopedic implants. The company has established a strong position in the aircraft engine parts sector since its listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2020 [1][4][17]. - The company reported revenues of 530 million yuan and a net profit of 78 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.95% in revenue but a decrease of 16.04% in net profit [1][31]. - The demand for international commercial aircraft engines is increasing, and Hangya Technology has positioned itself advantageously to meet this demand by becoming a reliable supplier for major players like CFM [1][39][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Hangya Technology is centered on precision forging technology, focusing on critical components for aircraft engines and medical implants. The company has made significant advancements in manufacturing techniques since its establishment in 2013 [1][17][20]. 2. Market Demand and Positioning - The international commercial aircraft engine market is characterized by a few dominant players, with CFM leading in delivery volumes. Hangya Technology has successfully positioned itself as a key supplier amid supply chain disruptions [1][39][44]. - CFM is actively seeking domestic suppliers to alleviate supply chain pressures, which presents opportunities for Hangya Technology to expand its market share [1][45][47]. 3. Growth Drivers - The company is experiencing growth across multiple sectors, including domestic aircraft engines, gas turbines, and medical products. Collaborations with major clients like GE and domestic aerospace firms are expected to drive future revenue growth [1][2][11][57]. - The domestic aviation market is projected to grow significantly, with increasing demand for new aircraft, which will benefit Hangya Technology's operations [1][57][59]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Hangya Technology indicate growth from 817 million yuan in 2025 to 1.512 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 130 million yuan to 290 million yuan during the same period [2][15][31]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.51 yuan in 2025 to 1.13 yuan by 2027, reflecting strong growth potential [2][15]. 5. Strategic Collaborations - Hangya Technology has established strategic partnerships with key industry players, enhancing its production capabilities and market reach. The collaboration with CFM and other international clients is expected to solidify its position in the market [1][49][54].

Core Conclusions - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in domestic AI large models, particularly with DeepSeek, which led to a notable independent rally in the computer industry in early 2025, outperforming the market [5][12] - The computer sector experienced a rapid recovery in revenue growth and profit margins during the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 832.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.50%, and net profit increasing by 47.77% [17][21] - Public fund holdings in the computer sector decreased to 2.6% in Q3 2025, indicating a low allocation but potential for future increases as AI technology continues to develop [25][29] 2025 Review - The computer industry saw a significant performance recovery, with a cumulative increase of 14.05% by December 11, 2025, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries [13][12] - The emergence of DeepSeek's R1 model marked a milestone in domestic AI, significantly lowering deployment barriers and accelerating AI application [32][38] - The overall gross margin for the computer industry was 20.73%, reflecting a slight decline, but cost control measures were effective, reducing the combined expense ratio by 2.08 percentage points [21][24] 2026 Outlook - Continued growth in capital expenditures (CapEx) from major domestic and international companies is expected, with a focus on AI computing power [113][114] - The report anticipates a significant increase in the adoption of enterprise-level AI applications, driven by top-level policies and the proliferation of AI agents [8][9] - The development of multi-modal capabilities in large models is expected to expand their application range significantly, moving beyond text to physical world interactions [7][8]

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a coordinated approach to internal and external economic challenges, highlighting the need to strengthen domestic capabilities to address external risks[1] - The macroeconomic policy maintains a consistent tone with previous years, focusing on necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure, reflecting a commitment to stabilize the economy and expectations[2] - The conference adopted a problem-oriented approach, addressing issues such as stabilizing investment and new birth rates, indicating a strong resolve to tackle existing challenges[2] Group 2: Real Estate and Market Development - The report reiterates the need to "reduce inventory" in the real estate sector, a continuation of previous policies aimed at addressing excess inventory, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities[3] - Future policies are expected to include the establishment of a unified national market and energy development plans, indicating a strategic focus on long-term market stability[3] - Risks include potential geopolitical disruptions and the possibility that policy implementation may not meet expectations, which could affect market confidence[4]