Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel supply is expected to see structural improvements, and the sector remains in a comfortable bottom configuration for investment [2][4] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions, the overall steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive factors such as real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and sustained manufacturing development [4] - The report highlights that the steel industry is likely to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [4] Supply Summary - As of March 14, the average daily pig iron output was 2.3059 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.08 thousand tons and a year-on-year increase of 83.4 thousand tons [16] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86.6%, up by 0.03 percentage points week-on-week [16] - The total output of five major steel products reached 7.445 million tons, an increase of 141.7 thousand tons week-on-week, or 1.94% [16][17] Demand Summary - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.839 million tons, an increase of 307.7 thousand tons week-on-week, or 3.61% [22][23] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 110 thousand tons, up by 9.16% week-on-week [22] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of five major steel products was 13.199 million tons, a decrease of 196.3 thousand tons week-on-week, or 1.47% [29][30] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 5.097 million tons, down by 110.4 thousand tons week-on-week, or 2.12% [29][31] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,575.9 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 10.48 yuan/ton, or 0.29% [38] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,714.1 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 22.09 yuan/ton, or 0.33% [38] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was -165.11 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.3 yuan/ton week-on-week [44] - The profit for rebar produced in electric arc furnaces was -247.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2 yuan/ton week-on-week [44]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the Cinda Securities derivatives research report series. It aims to minimize the impact of basis fluctuations through continuous adjustments to hedging positions [40] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to March 14, 2025 - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the remaining 30% to short futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures) - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2. Close the position at the closing price on that day and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price [41] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy provides a systematic approach to managing basis risks but does not account for transaction costs or market impact [41] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance [42] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to March 14, 2025 - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the remaining 30% to short futures contracts of the same nominal principal - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the rebalancing day and select the contract with the smallest basis discount. Hold the selected contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2, then rebalance [42] - **Model Evaluation**: This strategy dynamically adjusts positions based on basis changes, potentially improving hedging efficiency [42] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Futures**: - Annualized Return: -2.01% (monthly), -1.82% (quarterly) - Volatility: 4.02% (monthly), 4.94% (quarterly) - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly) - Net Value: 0.9480 (monthly), 0.9529 (quarterly) - IR: Not provided [44] - **CSI 300 Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.89% (monthly), 0.76% (quarterly) - Volatility: 2.87% (monthly), 3.24% (quarterly) - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly) - Net Value: 1.0236 (monthly), 1.0202 (quarterly) - IR: Not provided [49] - **SSE 50 Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.27% (monthly), 1.97% (quarterly) - Volatility: 3.11% (monthly), 3.50% (quarterly) - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly) - Net Value: 1.0337 (monthly), 1.0525 (quarterly) - IR: Not provided [54] - **CSI 1000 Futures**: - Annualized Return: -4.87% (monthly), -4.02% (quarterly) - Volatility: 4.26% (monthly), 5.30% (quarterly) - Maximum Drawdown: -13.84% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly) - Net Value: 0.8773 (monthly), 0.8981 (quarterly) - IR: Not provided [57] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **CSI 500 Futures**: - Annualized Return: -0.93% - Volatility: 4.84% - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97% - Net Value: 0.9759 - IR: Not provided [44] - **CSI 300 Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.31% - Volatility: 3.03% - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06% - Net Value: 1.0348 - IR: Not provided [49] - **SSE 50 Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.68% - Volatility: 3.06% - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91% - Net Value: 1.0446 - IR: Not provided [54] - **CSI 1000 Futures**: - Annualized Return: -3.49% - Volatility: 5.17% - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11% - Net Value: 0.9109 - IR: Not provided [57] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons [60] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on the methodology outlined in the Cinda Securities derivatives research report series, adjusted for the Chinese market - Calculated using implied volatility from options prices [60] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market sentiment and volatility expectations [60] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme events [66] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Derived from the implied volatility of out-of-the-money options - Positive values indicate higher demand for call options, while negative values reflect higher demand for put options [66] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for assessing tail risk and market sentiment regarding extreme events [67] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 21.35 - CSI 300: 19.86 - CSI 500: 26.42 - CSI 1000: 26.01 [60] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 97.72 - CSI 300: 99.44 - CSI 500: 98.05 - CSI 1000: 102.75 [67]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" based on the performance of the industry index relative to the benchmark [98]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight improvement in the inquiry atmosphere for certain long filament products, leading to a marginal increase in profitability [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending March 14, 2025, was $69.83 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [1][2]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown a decline, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2413.42 CNY/ton, down 1.37% week-on-week [2]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The international oil price experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies, with Brent and WTI prices at $70.58 and $67.18 per barrel respectively as of March 14, 2025 [1][11]. - Domestic refined oil prices have decreased across the board, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 7188.00 CNY/ton, 8340.14 CNY/ton, and 6259.87 CNY/ton respectively [11]. Chemical Sector - The overall average price of chemical products has declined, with polyethylene prices slightly down and polypropylene prices increasing for some products [1][38]. - The price of pure benzene has dropped significantly due to reduced downstream demand, averaging 7135.71 CNY/ton [43]. - Styrene prices continue to fall under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand, averaging 8150.00 CNY/ton [43]. Polyester Sector - The prices of polyester raw materials have continued to decline, with some long filament products showing slight improvements in profitability [1][56]. - The average price of PTA has decreased to 4785.71 CNY/ton, with an average net profit of -168.80 CNY/ton [64]. - The inquiry atmosphere for spring and summer lightweight fabrics has improved, although overall order volumes have not seen significant increases [63]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - As of March 14, 2025, the stock price changes for six major private refining companies were mixed, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down 0.23% and Hengli Petrochemical up 0.06% over the past week [83][84]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 22.42% since September 4, 2017, outperforming the oil and petrochemical industry index [86].

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 自 2020 年 1 月 4 日至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，布伦特周均原油价格涨幅为+3.47%，我们根据设计方案，以即期市场价格 对国内和国外重点大炼化项目做价差跟踪，国内重点大炼化项目周均价差涨跌幅为+4.08%，国外重点大炼化项目周均 价差涨跌幅为+9.09%。 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：询单气氛略有改善 ，部分长丝产品盈利提升 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 3 月 16 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][13] - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to exhibit slight fluctuations as it seeks a bottom, with a stable price expectation around 800 RMB/ton for market prices and approximately 700 RMB/ton for long-term contracts [4][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, dividends, and a favorable valuation outlook, suggesting significant investment opportunities [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of March 14, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 683 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle is 73.0 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][33] - The report notes a slight decline in coal prices, indicating a potential bottoming out [4][13] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [4][13] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day (-3.41%), while coastal provinces have seen an increase of 1.70 thousand tons/day (+0.89%) [4][13] - The report emphasizes that the supply-demand balance is currently stable, with a long-term supply gap expected to persist [4][14] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - As of March 13, coal inventory in coastal provinces has increased by 45.20 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces have seen a rise of 29.30 thousand tons [4][13] - The report indicates that coal inventories are relatively high, which may impact short-term price movements [4][13] 4. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [5][14] - It also highlights companies with significant upside potential due to previous underperformance, including Yancoal Australia and Tianma Intelligent Control [5][14] 5. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.97%, compared to a 1.59% rise in the CSI 300 index [18][20] - The report notes that the thermal coal segment has risen by 4.91%, indicating strong market interest [20]

[Table_Title] 浙江建立合约差价巨额盈亏风险干预机制，非常规 气开采专项奖补新政发布 浙江建立合约差价巨额盈亏风险干预机制，非常规气开采专项奖补新政发布 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 15 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [公用事业 Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 ...

电新周报：开普勒机器人"进厂"，国产人形机器人落地加速 [Table_Industry] 电力设备与新能源 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 电力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 武浩 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520090001 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：wuhao@cindasc.com 孙然 电新行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 联系电话：18721956681 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com ➢ 新能源汽车： 动力电池格局有望优化，板块盈利有望回暖：1）锂电池板块经历长期大幅 回调。2）锂电池供给阶段性过剩问题有望迎来拐点。3）碳酸锂价格下降， 有望带动电池成本及终端售价下降，有望刺激下游需求。同时 5C 快充加速 推进，新能源车里程焦虑持续改善，复合集流体等新技术处于量产前夕，新 能源车渗透率有望继续提升。重视快速增长的充电桩行业及相关企业通合科 技、盛弘股份、沃尔核材等。重视 ...

电新周报：开普勒机器人"进厂"，国产人形机器人落地加速 [Table_Industry] 电力设备与新能源 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 电力设备与新能源 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 武浩 电新行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520090001 联系电话：010-83326711 邮 箱：wuhao@cindasc.com 孙然 电新行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524080003 联系电话：18721956681 邮 箱：sunran@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 开普勒机器人"进厂"，国产人形机器人落地加速 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 16 日 [Table_Author] 科技、禾迈股份、德业股份等。 本期核心观点 [Tale_S 行业展望及配 ...

中期关注顺周期风格持续性，长期看好流动性宽松下的成长风格 —— 红利风格投资价值跟踪（2025W11） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 3 月 15 日 [于明明 Table_ First 金融工程与金融产品首席 Author] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 周金铭 金融工程与金融产品分析师 执业编号：S1500523050003 联系电话：+86 18511558803 邮 箱：zhoujinming@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 [TableReportType] 金工专题报告 | ] [Table_A 于明明 uthor 金融工程与金融产品 | | --- | | 首席分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500521070001 | | 联系电话：+86 18616021459 | | 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com | | 周金铭 金融工程与金融产品 | ...

浙江建立合约差价巨额盈亏风险干预机制，非常规气开采专项奖补新政发布 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 15 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [公用事业 Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CI ...