[Table_StockAndRank] 巨星科技(002444) | | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | | | | | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 龚轶之 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030005 邮 箱：gongyizhi@cindasc.com 王锐 机械行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080006 邮 箱：wangrui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 巨星科技：关税摩擦缓和，对美业务有望修复 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_Profit 重要财务指标 ] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in the closed-end wealth management product achievement rate, which reached 83.17% by the end of April 2025, while the open-end product achievement rate decreased to 54.80% [15][16] - The overall market's wealth management product net loss rate was recorded at 2.23%, showing a decrease of 0.27 percentage points compared to the previous month [12] - The number of existing net value-type wealth management products decreased to 18,600, a decline of 1.85% month-on-month [22] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Market Overview - As of the end of April 2025, the broken net rate was 2.23%, down from a peak of 20.60% in December 2022 [12] - The achievement rate for closed-end products increased to 83.17%, while open-end products saw a decrease to 54.80% [15][16] Net Value-Type Wealth Management Products - The total number of existing net value-type products was 18,600, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.85% [22] - The proportion of net value-type products with a negative net value growth was 2.95% as of the end of April [31] Issuance Market Situation - In April 2025, the total number of newly issued wealth management products was 5,990, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 44.83% [39] - Non-principal guaranteed products have seen a significant rise, with principal guaranteed products effectively reaching zero [42] - The largest proportion of newly issued products in April was for the 12-24 month term, accounting for 25.03% of the total [45] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national banks with solid fundamentals and low valuations, particularly those benefiting from the state-owned enterprise reform context, such as Postal Savings Bank, Agricultural Bank, and CITIC Bank [7] - It also highlights regional banks with sustained performance in wealth management, such as Qilu Bank and Ningbo Bank, as potential investment opportunities [7]

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | | 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 邮 | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 极端关税缓和下，未来可能的三种结果 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 13 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 中美极端关税出现实质性缓解，是现实需要的必然结果。中美双方实施极 端关税一个月后，双方在日内瓦经贸会议发布了联合声明，中美双方取消 91%的关税，暂停 24%的关税，保留 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in May is expected to move forward amidst fluctuations. The benchmark expectation is that the central bank will continue to guide the capital interest rate closer to the policy rate after the interest rate cut. The subsequent trend of monetary policy may depend on the fundamental state, and there is a possibility of further policy rate cuts if there are no fiscal incremental measures in the short term. The bond market environment is more favorable compared to the beginning of April [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The capital interest rate center is expected to continue to move closer to the policy rate after the interest rate cut - The conditions for "opportunistically cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate" have emerged, and the Politburo meeting in April mentioned "timely cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate." The central bank announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5% and a 10BP reduction in the policy rate to 1.4% on May 7, earlier than market expectations [6][7] - Market adjustments often occur after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, mainly due to the increase in capital interest rates after the interest rate cut or the strengthening of fiscal policies. The actual state of the capital side after the implementation of this reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut may be the key factor affecting the bond market performance in May [8] - Before the implementation of this reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut, the capital interest rate had been above the policy rate since January. Although it began to gradually return to the policy rate in March, the average DR007 in April was still more than 20BP above the OMO rate. The central bank's interest rate cut may be to support the real economy and boost market confidence, and the capital interest rate is expected to follow the policy rate down [11][12] - After the interest rate cut, the capital interest rate has declined, but the increase in bank net financing is relatively moderate, and the capital gap index is at a neutral and low level. The central bank is expected to continue to guide the capital interest rate to the 1.5%-1.6% range, but further observation of the central bank's operations is needed [13] 2. The monetary policy implementation report is more of a summary of the Q1 state, and the overall trend of monetary policy is still in the process of easing - The Q1 monetary policy implementation report did not mention the May reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut and had little mention of the impact of US tariffs on monetary policy. It is considered more of a summary of the previous quarter's monetary policy state [18][19] - Some information in the report may explain why the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts did not occur in the first quarter, such as the need to strengthen bond market construction and macro - prudential management, and the fact that the relationship between money and prices is affected by multiple factors. The central bank's cautious attitude towards monetary easing and its expectation of fiscal expansion are not the core factors determining short - term monetary policy operations [20][22] - After the tightening of the capital side in Q1, the weighted average interest rates of new loans and personal housing loans increased slightly, which deviated from the goal of reducing the comprehensive financing cost of society. In the context of escalating trade frictions, the domestic economy faces greater uncertainty, which may be the main reason for the May reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The subsequent trend of monetary policy needs to observe the fundamental state [22][25] 3. The increased demand for Chinese intermediate goods due to other economies' rush to export to the US, and the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market - Although the impact of trade frictions on exports is not significant in April, with exports reaching 8.1% year - on - year, it is mainly due to the spill - over effect of other economies' rush to export to the US. The current situation is different from that in 2020 when US fiscal expansion drove up demand [26][28] - The US economic prosperity has declined, and after the short - term rush to import and inventory build - up, if consumption does not continue to rise, its commodity demand may face downward pressure. The export growth of Vietnam, China Taiwan and other economies may decline, which may reduce their driving effect on China's exports [28][34] - The recent Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, but the tariff rate is still higher than before April, and there is a possibility of further increases. The domestic economy has shown signs of weakening since April, and the central bank's motivation to restrict the decline of long - term interest rates through liquidity tightening has weakened, which is more favorable for the bond market compared to the beginning of April [40][48] 4. The flattening of the interest rate curve reflects the change in the macro - model, and the bond market in May moves forward amidst fluctuations - Although the bond market environment is relatively favorable, the tariff agreement may cause emotional fluctuations. The current interest rate curve is relatively flat, and the market is worried about the fragility of the bond market. However, the continuous flattening of the interest rate curve since 2024 is essentially a change in the market's pricing method for the economy and policy model [50] - Historically, the change in the domestic yield curve was often dominated by short - term interest rates. After 2011, the domestic economy was mainly regulated by real estate and urban investment policies, and monetary policy was used to cooperate with these policies. In the upward real estate cycle, long - term interest rates were generally priced with a premium over short - term interest rates, and the narrowing of the spread usually occurred in the monetary tightening cycle [52][57] - Since 2021, the real estate policy has been continuously relaxed, but real estate sales have continued to decline, indicating a fundamental change in the economic model. The central bank has taken measures to lower the broad - spectrum interest rate since 2022, but the policy rate cut has been relatively lagging, which has increased the pressure on bank spreads. In the context of weak economic expectations, the domestic bond market has shown a state where the yield curve continues to flatten [58][64] - The domestic central bank has no clear guidance on future policy rates, so the domestic interest rate curve above 1 year is unlikely to invert, and the 1Y certificate of deposit rate and 10 - year treasury bond rate may be difficult to fall below the OMO rate. However, if the macro - expectation remains weak, the spreads between these interest rate combinations may continue to compress [64]

晶圆代工龙头发布业绩，短期波动不扰长期逻辑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 晶圆代工龙头发布业绩，短期波动不扰 长期逻辑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 本期内容提要: | 中芯国际：短期因素扰动上半年业绩，中长期成长逻辑不变 5 | | --- | | 华虹半导体： 产能利用率维持高位，模拟收入提升较为显著 7 | | 台积电：4 月营收同比大幅增长，创历史单月新高 9 | | 投资建议 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Linyang Energy (601222) is not explicitly stated in the report [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in total operating revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue at 6.742 billion yuan, down 1.89% year-on-year, and net profit at 753 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant decrease in revenue and net profit, with total revenue at 1.124 billion yuan, down 27.69% year-on-year, and net profit at 124 million yuan, down 43.26% year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in the smart meter sector, with successful bids totaling approximately 6.31 billion yuan in the State Grid and 6.01 billion yuan in the Southern Grid [4]. - The company has a strong foothold in the smart meter export market, covering over 50 countries, and is focusing on increasing market share in Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region [4]. - The renewable energy sector is progressing steadily, with over 1,245 MW of projects under construction and a signed operation and maintenance capacity exceeding 18 GW, reflecting a 50% year-on-year growth [4]. - The energy storage segment has seen a robust increase in delivery scale, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 4.5 GWh and a project reserve of over 10 GWh [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 6.742 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 753 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2][6]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 7.601 billion yuan, 8.656 billion yuan, and 9.546 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.7%, 13.9%, and 10.3% respectively [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is the largest smart meter exporter in China and is expanding its market share in Europe and Asia through partnerships and local strategies [4]. - The smart meter segment is expected to benefit from increasing demand in emerging markets, with a projected revenue of 28.3 billion yuan in 2024, up 14.28% year-on-year [4]. Operational Highlights - The company has made significant progress in renewable energy projects, with a total installed capacity of 1.36 GW and a generation of 1.45 billion kWh in 2024 [4]. - The energy storage segment is actively developing overseas markets, with a focus on Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, and has completed multiple projects in China [5].

晶圆代工龙头发布业绩，短期波动不扰长期逻辑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] [Table_S [➢Tabl中芯国际 e_ummar Summy]ar：y]短期因素扰动上半年业绩，中长期成长逻辑不变。中 芯国际 1Q25 实现营收 22.5 亿美元，同比+28.4%，环比+1.8%， 上季度指引环增 6%~8%，营收不及预期，公司表示一方面是厂务 年度维修出现突发情况，影响了产品的工艺精度和成品率，另一 方面是新进设备导入验证影响良率。1Q25 毛利率为 22.5%，同比 +8.8pct，环比-0.1pct，上季度指引 19%~21%；归母净利润 1.88 亿美元，同比+161.9%，环比+74.8%。公司指引 2Q25 营收环比 下降 4%~6%，营收中值 21.4 亿美元；毛利率 18%~20%，中值 19%，环比下降 3.5pct。1Q25 公司产能进一步提升至 97.3 万片/ 月（折合 8 英寸），伴随下游需求逐步复苏，产业链进入补库周 期，1Q25 公司产能利用率达到 89.6% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Linyang Energy (601222) is not explicitly stated in the report [1]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in total operating revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue at 6.742 billion yuan, down 1.89% year-on-year, and net profit at 753 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in the smart meter sector, with significant contracts won in both domestic and international tenders [4]. - The renewable energy sector is progressing steadily, with a total installed capacity of 1.36 GW and a generation of 1.45 billion kWh in 2024 [5]. - The energy storage segment is also growing, with cumulative deliveries exceeding 4.5 GWh and a focus on international markets [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 6.742 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 753 million yuan, down 27% year-on-year [2][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a further decline, with total revenue at 1.124 billion yuan, down 27.69% year-on-year, and net profit at 124 million yuan, down 43.26% year-on-year [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has secured contracts worth approximately 6.31 billion yuan in State Grid's 2024 electric meter procurement and 6.01 billion yuan in Southern Grid's framework tender [4]. - Linyang Energy is the largest smart meter exporter in China, with products covering over 50 countries and regions, and is expanding its market share in Western Europe and Asia-Pacific [4]. Renewable Energy Development - The company has over 1,245 MW of projects under construction and has successfully connected 350 MW of wind power projects to the grid [5]. - In 2024, the revenue from the photovoltaic sector was 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.48% [5]. Energy Storage Growth - The energy storage segment reported revenue of 919 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 38.97% year-on-year, but with a gross margin improvement to 17.64% [5]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, with significant project deliveries and partnerships established [5].

Investment Rating - The report rates the investment in the collectible card industry as positive, highlighting the leading position of the company in this sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the company is a pioneer in China's collectible card business, holding significant market shares in both the broader entertainment product and toy industries, with shares of 13.3%, 21.5%, and 71.1% respectively [8][39]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its integrated "production-research-sales" model, robust IP operation capabilities, and nationwide sales network, which allows for quick responses to market demands [8][46]. - The collectible card industry in China is still in its early development stages, with substantial potential for per capita spending growth compared to markets in Europe, America, and Japan [50][53]. - The company has a diverse IP matrix, including 70 IPs, and has seen significant revenue contributions from its top five IP products, which accounted for 98.4%, 89.9%, and 86.1% of total revenue in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [39][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leader in the collectible card industry in China, with a focus on expanding its product categories to include stationery and toys [8][39]. - The company has received investments from major firms like Sequoia China and Tencent, which have facilitated its product diversification [8][39]. 2. Core Business - The company has a deep production supply chain and sales channel layout, launching numerous toy series and expanding into stationery products [17][27]. - The revenue from collectible cards has shown volatility, while non-card products have steadily increased, indicating a healthier revenue structure [63][67]. 3. Brand Power and IP Licensing - The company benefits from a strong brand and IP licensing cycle, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from non-exclusive IP arrangements [39][44]. - The company’s IP matrix includes popular franchises, contributing to high gross margins and revenue stability [39][45]. 4. Industry Overview - The collectible card market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, reaching a market size of RMB 263 billion [50][52]. - Comparatively, per capita spending on collectible cards in China is significantly lower than in Japan and the USA, indicating room for growth [53][54]. 5. Financial Performance - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a notable increase from RMB 26.62 billion in 2023 to RMB 100.57 billion in 2024, driven by successful product launches [63][64]. - The revenue structure is becoming more balanced, with a decreasing reliance on collectible card sales as the company diversifies its product offerings [63][67].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a rapid revenue growth with 2024 annual revenue reaching 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 27.4% year-on-year [1][3] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 480 million yuan, with a net profit of 110 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.8% and 25.2% respectively [1][3] - The growth in revenue is driven by the digital printing equipment and ink segments, which saw revenues of 905 million yuan and 518 million yuan in 2024, growing 47.8% and 26.1% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding into new areas beyond its main business, including packaging and automatic sewing, which are expected to provide additional growth momentum [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.79 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.77 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 414 million yuan in 2024 to 917 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 26.5% [5] - The gross margin is forecasted to decline from 45.0% in 2024 to 41.4% in 2027, reflecting changes in product mix and pricing pressures [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 2.31 yuan in 2024 to 5.11 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [5][6] Cash Flow and Receivables - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 164 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.61% [3] - By the end of 2024, accounts receivable amounted to 727 million yuan, representing 40.6% of total revenue, indicating a rising trend in receivables [3]