Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.2%[1] - The GDP growth rate for May is estimated at 5.6%, consistent with the previous value[1] - Social retail sales in May rose by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since 1999[1] Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption, with home appliance sales increasing by 53.0% and communication equipment by 33.0%[1] - "Self-indulgence" consumption categories, such as sports and entertainment goods, saw growth rates of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively[1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year; manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.7% year-on-year, with an estimated monthly decline of 11.98%[1] Industrial Production - Industrial added value for May was 5.8%, down from 6.1% in April, indicating a marginal slowdown[2] - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to slow down further due to external uncertainties and diminishing returns from equipment renewal policies[1] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down from 5.1% in April[2] - Local household unemployment improved significantly, while unemployment among migrant workers increased slightly[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, suggesting a positive outlook based on current market conditions [2]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising by 12.85% to $78.27 per barrel [4]. - During the peak summer demand period, coal consumption in coastal provinces is expected to rise significantly, with daily consumption projected to exceed 2 million tons by late June [4]. - Coal prices in China have shown signs of stabilization, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port remaining steady at 609 yuan per ton as of June 13 [4]. - The report highlights that the coal supply may decrease in June due to safety production measures and environmental inspections, which could further support price stabilization [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, as well as coking coal leaders like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [4]. Summary by Sections - **Market Conditions**: The report notes that the coal market is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with a decrease in port inventories and cautious production attitudes among coal mines [4]. - **Price Trends**: Domestic coal prices are stabilizing due to improved market conditions and seasonal demand, with only a slight decrease observed in early June [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends investing in key players in the coal sector, indicating a favorable outlook for these companies amid rising oil prices and seasonal demand [4].

每日晨报 2025年6月16日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 从日本经验看,如果经济一旦陷入通缩陷阱,会极大压制居民和企业的消费和投资意愿,并 导致货币和财政政策的传导机制有效性下降,政策效果由此也会大打折扣。去年以来,决策层反 复强调当前面临的困难之一是国内有效需求不足,明确提出要全面提振内需。针对由于需求不足 导致的物价低迷问题,今年两会工作报告中把 CPI 的目标值从 3%下调至 2%,这意味着 CPI 目 标已经从约束性目标变为成果性目标,从之前防止 CPI 突破 3%,变为推动物价水平回归 2%的 正常水平。对此,央行在一季度货币政策报告中也明确表示"把促进物价合理回升作为把握货币 政策的重要考量，推动物价保持在合理水平"。 前五个月社融资增量累计为 18.63 万亿元 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观:"新"供给侧改革的"加减乘除"。未来十年,国内经济在 AI 驱动下, ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased risk aversion in the market, resulting in a rise in oil prices and a boost in safe-haven assets like gold [2][4] - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.89% during the week from June 9 to June 13 [2][4] - Among the sectors, healthcare, materials, and energy industries performed well, with respective index increases of 7.52%, 5.91%, and 5.80%, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors saw declines [7][12] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased to HKD 254.2 billion, up by HKD 50.2 billion from the previous week, indicating improved liquidity [17] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 15.5 billion, reflecting a positive sentiment towards certain stocks, including Meituan and BYD [17] - As of June 13, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Hang Seng Index was 10.6, placing it in the 72nd percentile since 2019, while the Hang Seng Tech Index had a PE ratio of 20.02, in the 8th percentile [19][23] Group 3 - The report suggests that the current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historical average level, with a focus on high-dividend sectors such as energy, finance, and precious metals, which are expected to attract investor interest amid geopolitical uncertainties [44] - The report also notes the potential benefits for export-oriented sectors due to improvements in US-China tariff policies, as well as opportunities in innovative pharmaceutical sectors and new consumer leaders with strong earnings growth [44][41]

Core Insights - The report highlights the expected growth in the industry, with a projected increase in revenue by 6% from 2025 to 2026, driven by rising demand and favorable market conditions [4][6][8] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators such as CPI and PPI, which are expected to influence market dynamics significantly [4][5][8] - The analysis suggests that companies within the sector are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends, particularly in sustainable practices and technological advancements [3][4][6] Industry Overview - The industry is experiencing a shift towards more sustainable practices, with a notable increase in investments in green technologies [4][5] - Market competition is intensifying, with several key players expanding their market share through strategic partnerships and acquisitions [3][4] - The report indicates that regulatory changes are likely to impact operational costs and market entry strategies for new entrants [4][5][6] Company Analysis - Specific companies are highlighted for their innovative approaches and strong financial performance, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4] - The report identifies potential risks associated with supply chain disruptions and fluctuating raw material costs, which could affect profitability [4][5] - Companies that adapt quickly to changing consumer preferences and invest in digital transformation are likely to outperform their peers [3][4][6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have led to increased risk aversion in the market, resulting in a rise in oil prices and a boost in safe-haven assets like gold [2][4]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.42%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.89% during the week from June 9 to June 13 [2][4]. - Among the sectors, healthcare, materials, and energy sectors performed well, with respective index increases of 7.52%, 5.91%, and 5.80%, while consumer discretionary, staples, and information technology sectors saw declines [7][12]. Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange increased to HKD 254.2 billion, up by HKD 50.2 billion from the previous week, indicating improved liquidity [17]. - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 15.5 billion, reflecting a positive sentiment towards certain stocks, including Meituan and BYD [17]. - As of June 13, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Hang Seng Index was 10.6, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio was 1.11, indicating that the index is trading at a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [19][30]. Group 3 - The report suggests that the current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at a historical average level, with a focus on high-dividend sectors such as energy, finance, and precious metals, which are expected to attract investor interest amid geopolitical uncertainties [44]. - The report also notes that the foreign trade sector may benefit from improvements in US-China tariff policies, while innovative pharmaceutical sectors and new consumer leaders with strong earnings growth potential are also highlighted as areas of interest [44][41].

每日晨报 2025年6月 13 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 美国 5 月 PPI 环比上涨 0.1% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:等待美国通胀温和上行,注意企业也承担了部分涨价--5 月美国 CPI 数据。全年来看,关税下的美国价格走势可能有以下几点特征:(1)从短期 的 CPI 和 PCE 价格数据来看,关税造成的涨价尚不明显,但我们认为这更多 是统计抽样和部分抢进口形成的库存所导致的涨价滞后,高频数据显示涨价已 经发生。(2)尽管通胀将在 2025下半年显现,但我们认为考虑关税的情况下 CPI 的年均同比增速将由 2.4%提升至 3.1%左右,高点可能为 3.4%, 2026 年 中开始可能回落至2.5%左右的范围,其"暂时性"并不阻碍美联储在年内考 虑降息。(3)从对企业的调查来看,企业也将负担部分关税成本,这一方面 意味着消费者价格上行压力缓和,另一方面企业利 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant performance of high-volatility strategies, with a cumulative increase of over 27% year-to-date, indicating strong market recovery and strategy effectiveness [2][4] - The report emphasizes the strategic transformation of Huaxi Biological, a leading global hyaluronic acid supplier, which is expected to benefit from domestic consumption upgrades and the growing demand for life health products [7][10] - The mechanical industry shows a mixed performance, with a decline in domestic excavator sales but a positive export growth, suggesting a resilient long-term outlook supported by government initiatives [12][15][16] - The beverage sector, particularly beer companies, is exploring diversification into non-alcoholic beverages, which is seen as a crucial growth strategy for future revenue streams [18][22] Group 1: High-Volatility Strategies - The report details the performance of various strategies, with low-price enhancement, improved dual-low, and high-price high-elasticity strategies yielding returns of 1.5%, 2.7%, and 4.7% respectively during the last period [2][3] - Year-to-date performance for these strategies shows returns of 4.5%, 16.6%, and 27.3%, outperforming the benchmark [2][3] Group 2: Huaxi Biological - Huaxi Biological is positioned as a global leader in bioactive materials, focusing on synthetic biology technology and a comprehensive industry chain [7][10] - The company is expanding its product matrix to include various bioactive materials, enhancing its market presence in medical and nutritional products [8][9] Group 3: Mechanical Industry - In May, domestic excavator sales decreased by 1.48%, while exports grew by 5.4%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12][14] - The report notes that the overall export of engineering machinery remains stable, with significant growth in exports to Africa and South America [14][16] Group 4: Beverage Sector - Domestic beer companies are actively expanding into beverage markets, with notable initiatives from brands like Yanjing and Qingdao Beer [18][19] - The report suggests that while beverage business contributions are currently low, they represent a vital growth avenue for beer companies in the long term [22]

每日晨报 2025年6月11日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 周二美股三大指数均上行，纳指领涨美股大 模 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 ● 策略:稳定币概念股投资展望。稳定币概念股投资展望:(1)自中国香港《稳 定币条例草案》通过以来, [HK]稳定币指数(887779.WI)经历了先涨后跌的 行情,成交活跃度大幅提升。5月21日至6月2日,IHK]稳定币指数累计上 涨了 84.77%, 但 6 月 3 日至 6 月 6 日回调了 15.86%, 因此 5 月 21 日至 6 月 6 日累计上涨 55.47%。 (2) A 股稳定币指数 (8841912.WI) 行情略微滞后于 港股稳定币指数，波动幅度也小于港股。5 月 26 日至 6 月 5 日，A 股稳定币 指数累计上涨 35.51%, 6 月 6 目回调 2.83%。 (3 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. Senate passed the "GENIUS Act" on May 19, 2025, which stipulates that only federally or state-approved entities can issue stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold at least $1 in compliant reserves for every $1 stablecoin issued [2][4][5] - Hong Kong's Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance" on May 21, 2025, which mandates that any entity issuing fiat-backed stablecoins must apply for a license from the Financial Management Commissioner [10][12] Group 2: Uses and Impacts of Stablecoins - Stablecoins facilitate payments and settlements, reducing transaction difficulties and fees, thus enhancing international trade [13] - The demand for stablecoins will shift towards the underlying assets they are pegged to, such as U.S. Treasury bonds for USD stablecoins, which may strengthen the dollar's international position [13][17] Group 3: Investment Outlook for Stablecoin-Related Stocks - The Hong Kong stablecoin index saw a cumulative increase of 55.47% from May 21 to June 6, 2025, despite a short-term pullback [26][30] - The A-share stablecoin index increased by 35.51% from May 26 to June 5, 2025, with a subsequent decline of 2.83% [36][42] - The listing of Circle, the issuer of USDC, on the NYSE on June 5, 2025, resulted in a significant stock price increase, with a first-day gain of 168.48% [25]