宏观动态报告 -- 6 月 FOMC 会议 2024 年 6 月 19 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 于金潼 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测进一步确立"滞胀"担忧,点阵图边际鹰流但无需过多解读,硬数据变动仍将主 ● 导美联储未来的态度,而关税和财政是影响硬数据的核心变量: 6 月将 2025 和 2026 年的 经济增长预期从 1.7%和 1.8%下调至 1.4%和 1.6%,低于经济潜在增速。2025-2027 年 的失业率被小幅全线上调,分别为 4.5%、4.5%和 4.4%,略高于自然失业率水平并支持 进一步的降息。PCE 通胀也被上调,2025年名义和核心通胀分别从 2.7%和 2.8%进一步 上调至 3.0%和 3.1%,而 2026 年均为 2.4%,即通胀抬升基本为一次性。最后,联邦基 金利率预测路径显示 2025 年美联储暂时维持降息 2 次，2026 年降息从 2 次下调 ...

Macro Economic Outlook - The report predicts a 5.1% growth in real GDP for 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.4%, 4.9%, and 4.7% respectively [4][5] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 5.0%, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of durable goods [4] - Fixed asset investment is projected to increase by 3.7%, while export growth is anticipated to be around 1.5% for the year [4][5] - CPI is expected to remain low with a year-on-year increase of approximately 0%, while PPI is forecasted to be -2.3% [5] Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see a recovery in innovative drugs, with a focus on medical devices and services [10][12] - The report highlights a favorable environment for innovative drugs due to supportive policies and an expected increase in investment activity [11][12] - Medical device procurement data shows signs of recovery, indicating a release of pent-up demand [12] - The medical services sector is anticipated to experience growth due to nationwide payment reforms and signs of recovery in the ophthalmology field [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in pharmaceutical consumption driven by domestic consumption stimulus policies [12][13] Integrated Circuit Industry (Ziguang Guowei) - Ziguang Guowei is positioned as a leading player in the integrated circuit industry, focusing on special integrated circuits and smart security chips [16][19] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the special integrated circuit sector, which is projected to see significant growth in the coming years [16][19] - The automotive electronics segment is highlighted as a key growth area, with the MCU market expected to grow significantly [17][19] - The company plans to initiate a share buyback program to enhance employee motivation and support sustainable development [18][19] Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector shows signs of month-on-month improvement in sales, with May 2025 seeing a 10.34% increase in sales area compared to April [22][25] - Despite a negative year-on-year growth of 2.90% in sales area for the first five months, the report indicates a potential stabilization in the housing market due to policy support [22][25] - Real estate development investment is projected to decline by 10.70% year-on-year, but monthly investment showed an 8.68% increase in May [23][25] - The report suggests that leading real estate companies with strong operational capabilities are likely to gain market share [25]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the home appliance sector, particularly in companies with stable performance and increasing dividend rates [8]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from long-term stability due to its essential nature and competitive advantages globally, despite facing short-term pressures from market competition and external factors like tariffs [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of government subsidy policies, particularly the "old-for-new" program, which is anticipated to continue supporting consumer demand in 2024 and 2025 [7][8]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the white goods sector, emphasizing the significance of companies' performance stability and dividend yield in the current low-risk interest rate environment [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The home appliance sector has outperformed the market since 2023, with the SW home appliance index showing increases of 3.8% in 2023, 25.4% in 2024, and 1.93% in 2025 YTD [7][12]. - The sector's performance is attributed to the essential nature of large appliances and the benefits from government subsidy policies [7][12]. 2. Domestic Sales Supported by Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated the market, with retail sales expected to grow significantly due to government support [42][44]. - The retail market for home appliances is projected to reach CNY 1,030.7 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [42]. 3. Overseas Market Dynamics - The report notes a shift in the global supply chain, with Chinese home appliance companies expected to benefit from increased order concentration in the U.S. market by 2026 [7][8]. - Exports of home appliances are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2023 and 14.1% in 2024, with significant increases in air conditioning exports [7][8]. 4. White Goods Market Insights - The air conditioning market is expected to remain strong in 2024, driven by government subsidies, although competition in the online market is intensifying [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades in the refrigerator and washing machine segments, which are expected to maintain stable sales due to their essential nature [7][8]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Visual, and Gree Electric, focusing on their stable earnings and high dividend yields [8]. - The black goods sector presents opportunities due to improved global competitiveness, while the cleaning appliance segment is highlighted for its growth potential following industry consolidation [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the communication sector, particularly focusing on sub-sectors like optical communication and smart cards, which have shown better performance recently [1][10]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a downturn, with the overall index down by 0.78%, while specific sub-sectors like smart cards and optical devices have seen gains of 3.88% and 3.51% respectively [1][10]. - The integration of 5G and AI is expected to enhance profitability, with approximately 70% of the constituents in the 5G communication theme index having business related to 5G and about 76% related to AI [2][43]. - The report highlights a significant growth in revenue and net profit for the 5G communication theme index constituents, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue in the range of 10% to 30% over the next three years [2][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The communication sector index declined by 0.78%, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite down by 0.25% and the ChiNext up by 0.22% [1][10]. - Sub-sectors such as smart cards and optical devices performed well, with respective gains of 3.88% and 3.51% [1][10]. 2. Industry Development and Key Events - The global data center market is driven by AI, digitalization, and policy support, with the top ten data center service providers holding 59.5% of the total global resource capacity [24][26]. - The report notes a rapid increase in the proportion of large and super-large data centers in China, which are expected to dominate new constructions [26][30]. 3. 5G and AI Integration - The report emphasizes the high correlation between 5G and AI businesses, with a stable recovery in profitability observed [2][43]. - The constituents of the 5G communication theme index are projected to achieve a total revenue of CNY 1,788.51 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4% [2][45]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality stocks in sub-sectors with improving market conditions, particularly in optical communication and data centers [3][41]. - Specific companies to watch include Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Tianfu Communication, among others [3][41].

美股回落,国际油价收涨超 4%，白银再破历 史高位 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 18 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 机械：核电人形机器人专题报告——工业应用场景巡礼。国内核电人形机器人 ● 产业发展提速:自2024年3月起,国家地方共建人形机器人创新中心联合上 海电气中央研究院,针对核电行业极端环境需求,开展了大量技术攻关与联合 实验,成功部署首款针对核电产业日常生产的人形机器人并进驻核电场景训练 场,相关项目也顺利完成阶段性验收。同时,国家和上海、杭州、北京、深圳 等地纷纷出台人形机器人相关政策,从技术研发、应用推广等多方面给予支持, 为人形机器人深度融入核电产业、推动核电智能化发展奠定了坚实基础。核电 领域作为危险、重复、繁重的工业应用场景,有望率先实现具身智能赋能与落 地。 滑费:5月社零提速彰显国补刺激、新消费活跃。5月社零增长提速，受益于 ...

Macro Economic Overview - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate in 24 years, driven by the effects of the policy encouraging the replacement of old goods with new ones [1][2] - Industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.2%, indicating a robust economic performance [1][2] - Investment structure remained stable, with manufacturing investment at +8.5% and infrastructure investment at +5.6%, although real estate investment saw a decline of 10.7% [1][2] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may benefit from a weakening US dollar and US Treasury yields, creating favorable conditions for valuation recovery [1][2] - The focus is on structural opportunities in the A-share market, particularly in technology sectors such as AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors, which are expected to remain long-term hotspots [1][2][19] - Recommendations include targeting companies with high growth potential and strong R&D investments, as well as those involved in industry chain collaboration and overseas expansion [1][24] Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector showed strong performance, particularly in categories like home appliances, which grew by 53.0%, and emotional consumption categories such as sports and entertainment products, which saw increases of 28.3% and 21.8% respectively [3] - The "replace old with new" policy has significantly boosted consumer demand, and future trends will depend on the continuation and expansion of such policies [3] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment showed a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points to 8.5%, with equipment investment growth at 17.3% [4] - The report indicates that while manufacturing investment remains high, it may further slow down due to diminishing returns from equipment renewal policies and uncertainties in external demand [4] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth was recorded at 5.6%, with water conservancy investment being a major support, although it has been declining for four consecutive months [5] - The report highlights the need for new policy tools to support infrastructure investment in the second half of the year, particularly in technology innovation and consumption infrastructure [5] Real Estate Market Overview - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, with new construction area growth remaining slow [6] - The report emphasizes that recovery in real estate investment will depend on the introduction of new policies to stimulate the market [6] Financial Sector Insights - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan in May, with government bonds being a major contributor to this growth [26][27] - The report notes a recovery in medium to long-term loans for residents, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market [28][30] North Exchange Market Activity - The North Exchange has seen active trading, with a daily average transaction amount of approximately 341.46 billion yuan, indicating a rebound in market activity [21][22] - The report recommends focusing on companies with growth potential and those involved in mergers and acquisitions, as well as state-owned enterprises with strong growth capabilities [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, specifically focusing on humanoid robots in the nuclear power sector [4]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry in China's nuclear power sector is accelerating, with significant advancements in technology and applications, supported by national and local policies [8][11]. - Humanoid robots are designed to operate in extreme environments typical of nuclear power plants, enhancing operational efficiency and safety [25][26]. - The investment suggestion emphasizes focusing on companies actively engaged in the nuclear power humanoid robot sector, such as Jingye Intelligent, Shanghai Electric, Shenhao Technology, Yijiahe, and others [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Development Acceleration of Humanoid Robots in Nuclear Power - The establishment of innovation centers and successful deployment of humanoid robots in nuclear settings mark significant milestones in the industry [11][12]. - The first humanoid robot for daily operations in nuclear power was successfully deployed, indicating a shift from theoretical exploration to practical application [11]. 2. Basic Information and Classification of Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robots are characterized by their ability to withstand high radiation and operate autonomously in hazardous environments, significantly improving safety and efficiency in nuclear operations [25][26]. - The classification of nuclear robots includes humanoid and non-humanoid types, with humanoid robots offering greater flexibility and capability in complex tasks [29][30]. 3. Industry Chain of Nuclear Robots - The industry chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers, midstream production and assembly, and downstream application in various nuclear power operations [53][54]. - The demand for humanoid robots spans multiple applications, including safety inspections, maintenance, and emergency response, enhancing overall operational efficiency [53]. 4. Key Companies in the Sector - Jingye Intelligent is recognized as a leader in nuclear industrial robotics, focusing on spent fuel processing and developing advanced robotic solutions [8]. - Shanghai Electric has initiated a humanoid robot training center, enhancing the development of industrial-grade humanoid robots [8]. - Shenhao Technology and Yijiahe are also making strides in the nuclear robotics field, collaborating to develop intelligent inspection robots [8]. 5. Future Development Potential - The report highlights the potential for humanoid robots to become integral to the nuclear power industry, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies from various regions [16][48]. - The collaboration among industry players and research institutions is expected to foster innovation and accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots in nuclear applications [48].

Market Performance - On June 16, 2025, the North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.84%, closing at 1408.15 points[3] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 28.73 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.21%[3] - Compared to the previous week, the average daily trading volume decreased from 32.60 billion CNY to 28.73 billion CNY[3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+19.3%), Utilities (+6.0%), and Computers (+3.5%) on June 16, 2025[3] - The sectors with the largest declines were Textiles & Apparel (-4.9%), Defense & Military (-1.3%), and Transportation (-1.3%)[3] Individual Stock Performance - Among the 267 listed companies, 182 saw their stock prices rise, while 78 experienced declines[3] - Leading gainers included Meideng Technology (+21.85%) and Huaxin Yongdao (+19.72%) while the largest decliners were Yeguangming (-8.84%) and *ST Yunchuang (-6.35%)[3] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was approximately 50.83 times earnings, higher than the ChiNext's 34.40 times[3] - The highest average P/E ratios were in the Electronics sector (209.9 times) and Computers (148.3 times)[3] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer sector, particularly benefiting from government subsidies and new consumption trends [4][5][46]. Core Insights - The acceleration in retail sales in May is attributed to national subsidies, new consumption patterns, and the early start of the 618 shopping festival [4][7]. - Concerns exist regarding the continuity of national subsidies, while new consumption trends are gaining more attention due to their high growth potential [2][14]. - The overall retail sales growth is primarily supported by consumption subsidy policies, although underlying consumer demand remains weak [4][12]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a total of 41,326 billion yuan, while the cumulative retail sales from January to May increased by 5.0% to 203,171 billion yuan [15]. - The retail sales growth rates for various categories in May include: - Home appliances: +53.0% - Communication equipment: +33.0% - Cultural and office supplies: +30.5% - Furniture: +25.6% [16][24]. Consumer Segments - New consumption sectors, such as new tea drinks and sports entertainment products, are showing significant growth, with May retail sales for sports and entertainment items increasing by 28.3% year-on-year [13][18]. - The gold and jewelry sector also saw a rise in retail sales by 12.3% from January to May, driven by the demand for value preservation amid rising gold prices [13][16]. Government Subsidies - The government has allocated 1,500 billion yuan for consumer subsidies in 2024 and 3,000 billion yuan in 2025, enhancing the impact of these subsidies on consumer spending [4][34]. - The report highlights that the effectiveness of these subsidies is expected to continue in the first half of 2025, although there may be limitations on the subsidy amounts in the latter half of the year [12][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investments in various sectors, including: - Consumer services: Gu Ming, Mi Xue Group - Food and beverage: Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer - Pet industry: Guibao Pet, Petty Co., Ltd. - Home appliances: Midea Group, Hisense Visual [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The current Brent oil price of $73 per barrel reflects market concerns over geopolitical uncertainties but does not fully account for potential substantial disruptions in the crude oil market [2][33] - The report outlines three scenarios regarding oil supply and price movements based on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran and the Strait of Hormuz [2][38] Summary by Sections Oil Price Scenarios - Scenario 1: If global oil supply remains unaffected, the market is expected to maintain a surplus, leading to a potential price drop, with Brent oil projected to range between $60-70 per barrel in the second half of 2025 [2][33] - Scenario 2: A significant drop in Iranian oil supply could reverse the surplus expectation, potentially raising Brent prices to around $80 per barrel in the short term, before gradually declining as OPEC and U.S. shale oil production increases [2][38] - Scenario 3: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the market could face a supply shortage, pushing Brent prices to challenge $100 per barrel, with future price movements dependent on the reopening of the Strait and production adjustments by OPEC and U.S. shale producers [2][38] Geopolitical Context - The report highlights the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly the recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which have raised concerns about Iranian oil supply and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transportation [6][7] - Iran's oil production is projected at 4.68 million barrels per day in 2024, representing 4.65% of global oil production, making its stability crucial for the global oil supply [6][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - The report notes that the Strait of Hormuz is vital for global energy security, with an oil flow of 20.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2023, accounting for approximately 26.9% of global maritime oil trade [21][27] - If the Strait is closed, alternative pipeline capacities are limited, particularly for Iran, which relies entirely on this route for oil exports [27][28]