☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 明显回升, PPI 有待政策加码 3 月物价数据解读 2025年4月10日 分析师 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 3 月 CPI 环比降幅扩至为-0.4%（前值-0.2%），同比跌幅收窄至-0.1% (前值 ● -0.7%）,过去五年(春节在１月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.4%,其 中食品价格环比下跌 1.4%(前值-0.5%）,过去五年环比均值为-1.7%;非食 品价格环比下跌 0.2%(前值-0.1%），过去五年环比均值为 0%, 食品和非食 品价格下跌共同带动 CPI 环比跌幅扩大。核心 CPI 由跌转涨,环比持平为 0%, 同比上涨 0.5%。PPI 环比降幅为-0.4%(前值-0.1%)，同比下降 2 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 10 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 中央周边工作会议 4 月 8 日至 9 日在北京举 行 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 固收:地方债市场全景梳理与市场前瞻。在更加积极的财政政策目标下,地方 债供给规模将继续提升,预计 2025年新增一般债升至 0.8万亿元,新增专项 债升至 4.4万亿元,总发行规模在 10万亿元左右,较 2024年小幅增加。策略 方面,目前中、长、超长端地方债二级利差基本均位于 2024年以来 85%分位 以上,关注机构配置需求下地方债二级利差收窄机会。 计算机:对等关税风暴加速全球科技变革重构。我们认为:从全球经济和行业 ● 发展的角度来看,这些"对等关税"措施对科技行业的影响是复杂且多面的。 首先,对于美国自身而言,加征关税可能会在短期内保护部分本土科技产业免 受进口产品的竞争压力,但从长期来看,这种保护主义措施可能会削弱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to experience revenue growth from 692.47 million in 2024 to 907.42 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.70% [8] - The net profit is expected to increase from 164.35 million in 2024 to 251.43 million in 2027, indicating a growth rate of 8.79% [8] - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 350.56 million in 2024 to 449.14 million in 2027, showing a steady increase in operational profitability [8] Financial Summary - The total assets are projected to grow from 1851.25 million in 2024 to 3340.40 million in 2027 [7] - The company's total liabilities are expected to increase from 437.22 million in 2024 to 1236.15 million in 2027 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to be 10.40% in 2024, peaking at 12.05% in 2025, and then gradually declining to 11.28% by 2027 [8] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is estimated to rise from 285.28 million in 2024 to 406.66 million in 2027 [7] Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is projected to improve from 60.34% in 2024 to 63.60% in 2027 [8] - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 20.50% in 2024 to 24.62% in 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 18.63 in 2024 to 11.84 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation over time [8]

ESG 与央国企月度报告 3 月纯 ESG 策略超额收益 2.32% ESG 与央国企月度报告(2025年3月) 核心观点 风险提示:市场情绪不稳定的风险;历史数据推演规律改变的风险;政策理解不到 位的风险。 2025 年 4 月 4 日 分析师 马宗明 ☎: 18600816533 ☑: mazongming_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524070001 肖志敏 ☎：13581725586 网: xiaozhimin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080004 研究助理 方嘉成 相关研究 可持续信息披露指引正式发布,推动上市公司高质量发 展 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 3 月 28 日，中国证监会发布新版《上市公司信息披露管理办法》 (以下 ● 简称《信披办法》）,同步修订了《年度报告准则第2号》和《半年度报 告准则第 3 号》。相较旧版,本次三项政策的出台标志着我国上市公司 ESG 信息披露进入系统化、强制化推进的新阶段。监管层将 ESG ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, and there is a continuous focus on the pace of transformation [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 55.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.9 billion yuan, down 47.4% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth rates of 10.1%, 12.2%, and 12.35% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth rates of 17.5%, 12.9%, and 13.0% for the same years [5] Financial Forecast Summary - **Revenue Forecast (in million yuan)**: - 2024A: 5518.76 - 2025E: 6076.15 - 2026E: 6817.44 - 2027E: 7659.40 - **Net Profit Forecast (in million yuan)**: - 2024A: 893.07 - 2025E: 1048.94 - 2026E: 1184.34 - 2027E: 1338.77 - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 1.14 - 2025E: 1.34 - 2026E: 1.51 - 2027E: 1.71 - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE)**: - 2024A: 17.44 - 2025E: 14.85 - 2026E: 13.15 - 2027E: 11.64 [2][7] Operational Insights - The company has seen a significant improvement in its main business, with a revenue increase of 2.9% for the year, and a notable 56.7% increase in revenue from the parent company due to land income recognition [5] - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 39.8%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and enhanced production efficiency [5] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion yuan for its flagship product by 2026, focusing on refined marketing, continuous innovation, and lean operations [5]

Macro Perspective - The report maintains a strong outlook on the Chinese market, viewing the trade war as both a challenge and an opportunity for economic restructuring, with confidence in China's ability to stabilize its economy amidst external uncertainties [2][3] - China's complete industrial system and expanding domestic market provide a core advantage over the U.S. during supply chain disruptions, as evidenced during the pandemic [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology and innovation in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the face of U.S. semiconductor sanctions [2] Strategy - The report advocates for a bullish stance on the A-share market, highlighting the resilience of China's economy and its strategic capacity to counteract external pressures through policy tools such as increased fiscal deficit and special bonds [6][7] - The report notes that the A-share market is expected to achieve stable and healthy development in the long term, supported by a robust industrial ecosystem and ongoing technological advancements [7] Agriculture - The pet industry in China is projected to exceed 400 billion yuan by 2027, driven by changing consumer trends such as emotional spending and rational pet ownership [10][12] - The pet food market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 158.5 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [10][12] - The pet medical sector is also anticipated to expand, with a market size of 84.1 billion yuan in 2024, supported by policy initiatives promoting domestic vaccine development [11][12] Computer Industry - The report highlights the impact of NVIDIA's GTC conference on the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of advancements in computing power and AI applications [14][15] - It suggests focusing on specific segments such as domestic computing power supply chains, third-party IDC service providers, and AI applications [18] Machinery - The human-shaped robot industry is experiencing rapid development, with significant technological breakthroughs and policy support driving its growth [21][24] - The report identifies three categories of companies to watch: those with strong order visibility, core component suppliers with high barriers to entry, and companies involved in emerging technologies like dexterous hands and sensors [24] Non-Banking Financials - The report notes a weak overall performance in the non-banking financial sector, with a decrease in market activity [35] - It emphasizes the ongoing government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting investor confidence, which are expected to enhance the sector's outlook [37]

Group 1: Central Huijin's Role and Funding Sources - Central Huijin Company has a strong financial foundation and will play a key role in stabilizing the capital market, leveraging its substantial funding sources[2] - As of the end of 2023, China Investment Corporation (CIC), the parent company of Central Huijin, has total assets of $1.33 trillion and net assets of $1.24 trillion[2] - Central Huijin's funding sources include self-owned funds from stable cash dividends, market-based financing channels, and liquidity support from the central bank[2] Group 2: Market Confidence and Policy Support - On April 7, 2025, Central Huijin announced its commitment to increasing ETF holdings to stabilize the market, reflecting confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese capital market[16] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) supports Central Huijin by providing sufficient re-lending to ensure market liquidity and stability[17] - The recent adjustment in insurance fund regulations allows for an increase of up to ¥1.66 trillion in equity investment, enhancing support for the capital market and the real economy[22] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to perform well in the long term, with current valuations at historical lows, such as a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.97, which is in the 39th percentile since 2010[29] - The government plans to increase fiscal spending, with a deficit rate of around 4% and a deficit scale of ¥5.66 trillion, which will support economic growth and market stability[28] - The introduction of the Chinese version of the stabilization fund is anticipated to inject significant stability into the market, encouraging long-term investment and value investment[38]

Group 1 - Central Huijin's announcement of increased holdings in ETFs injects confidence into the market, emphasizing the long-term value of A-shares and the commitment to stabilize the capital market amid global uncertainties [2][4]. - The Chinese government has prepared ample policy tools to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs, with potential adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption and economic recovery [5][6]. - The macroeconomic outlook remains positive, with manufacturing PMI rising to 50.5% in March, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing sector [9]. Group 2 - A-share companies are showing signs of marginal profit improvement, with 2054 companies reporting a combined net profit growth of 5.8% for 2024, and 81.8% of companies achieving profitability [16]. - The introduction of policies to promote long-term capital inflow into the market is expected to enhance the funding structure, with public funds increasing their holdings in A-shares significantly [19][24]. - A-share valuations remain attractive compared to international markets, with the overall A-share index P/E ratio at 16.97, indicating a low historical position and potential for upward adjustment [25][29]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes a strong bullish outlook for the A-share market, driven by China's comprehensive industrial system, technological innovation, and a vast domestic market, which are expected to mitigate external pressures and foster stable long-term growth [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the application effects of treasury bond futures in bond funds by summarizing common strategies of treasury bond futures, combining with the position data of public - offering funds and the performance of fixed - income products in 2024, aiming to provide references for investors [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Common Strategies - **Trend Strategy**: It involves directly profiting from judging interest rate directions or basis deviations from the mean. Futures index performance is highly negatively correlated with spot maturity yields, and long - term contracts have a higher correlation with spots. The long - position substitution strategy has advantages in low capital occupation under the margin mechanism and potential for profit when the basis deviates from the mean, especially in long - term contracts [3][7]. - **Hedging Strategy**: It aims to hedge interest rate fluctuation risks by establishing opposite transactions in the futures market to the spot positions. The steps include determining the target and direction, calculating the hedging ratio (using the duration method or DV01 method), and opening and closing positions [3][20]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage**: It can be divided into positive and reverse arbitrage. Positive arbitrage is suitable when the net basis is negatively deviated and the IRR is higher than the capital cost; reverse arbitrage is appropriate in the opposite situation. Reverse arbitrage opportunities are more frequent but riskier [3][25]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage**: It trades the price difference between different expiration - month contracts of the same treasury bond futures variety, often benefiting from the liquidity game during the roll - over period [3][31]. - **Inter - Commodity Spread Arbitrage**: It includes yield curve arbitrage (steepening or flattening) and duration - neutral arbitrage, which aim to capture relative value returns by hedging interest rate directional risks [3][35]. 3.2 Current Situation of Public - Offering Funds' Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - From 2017 to 2024, the participation of public - offering funds in the treasury bond futures market increased significantly. By the end of 2024, 46 institutions held positions, with nearly 100 participating products and a total scale exceeding 200 billion yuan. The position volume decreased by 7.6% year - on - year to 10,280 lots, while the contract market value increased by 16% year - on - year to 13.7 billion yuan. There is a significant Matthew effect, with the top funds holding a large proportion of the market [3][45]. - Bond funds are the main participants. Pure - bond funds account for 3/4 of the total public - offering market's position scale, among which medium - and long - term bond funds account for more than half, and "fixed - income + equity" funds account for nearly 20% [3][54]. 3.3 Analysis of Public - Offering Funds' Positions in Treasury Bond Futures - The position structure strategy has gradually changed from a bullet - type to a ladder - type and presented a dumbbell - type at the end of 2024, with short - end and ultra - long - end as recent allocation focuses [59]. - The average position of public - offering funds in treasury bond futures is around 10%. At the end of 2024, the position of medium - and long - term bond funds was close to the upper limit of 20%. The short - position average was 7.3%, 4 percentage points higher than the long - position [62][63]. - The long - position timing enhancement effect of public - offering funds is good, and the correlation coefficient between the position and yield performance in a bull market environment exceeds 0.3. The short - position hedging strategy shows two - stage characteristics [66][68]. 3.4 Performance Evaluation of "Fixed - Income + Treasury Bond Futures" Funds in 2024 - **Overall Performance of Public - Offering Bond Funds**: In 2024, the scale ratio of "fixed - income + equity" and pure - bond funds participating in treasury bond futures was 3:7, and the number ratio was 1:1. The scale ratio of short - only/mixed/long - only strategies was close to 7:2:1. The use of treasury bond futures strategies improved the Sharpe ratio of bond funds by 0.6 - 1.0. The "fixed - income + equity + treasury bond futures" strategy significantly increased returns, and the mixed strategy improved drawdowns, but the "pure - bond + treasury bond futures" strategy did not show significant effects on returns and drawdowns [80]. - **Performance of "Fixed - Income + Equity" Funds' Treasury Bond Futures Strategies**: Compared with the average of secondary bond funds, the three treasury bond futures strategies of "fixed - income + equity" funds showed differentiation. The long - only strategy had better target - achievement effects throughout the year [92]. - **Performance of Pure - Bond Funds' Treasury Bond Futures Strategies**: Compared with the average of primary bond funds, the use of treasury bond futures strategies mainly improved the return stability. The short - only strategy had a certain hedging effect in unilateral market conditions, with a win - rate of over 80%. The overall achievement effect of treasury bond futures was inferior to that of "fixed - income + equity" funds [80].

Key Insights - The "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration represent the largest-scale impact on the global trade system to date, with ASEAN being one of the most affected regions, facing an average tariff increase of 33% [2][3] - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant restructuring of global supply chains and have direct and indirect impacts on ASEAN's export and foreign investment inflows [3][4] - The tariffs reflect four strategic objectives of the U.S.: reducing trade deficits with ASEAN countries, reshaping U.S. manufacturing advantages, blocking China's intermediate trade networks, and increasing U.S. influence in Southeast Asia [2] ASEAN Market Impact - ASEAN's export sectors, particularly those reliant on the U.S. and China, are likely to face severe challenges, with specific industries such as electrical equipment, furniture, and telecommunications being the most affected [3][4] - The high tariffs may trigger a global shift in key industrial supply chains, as ASEAN countries have become central to global electronics and automotive parts manufacturing [3] U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. equity market is experiencing a reassessment of risk premiums due to the tariffs, with significant implications for sectors reliant on imports [6][10] - The ongoing inflationary pressures and the potential for a recession are expected to weigh heavily on U.S. stock valuations, particularly in the technology sector, which has seen a disconnect between valuations and fundamentals [10] Gold and Rare Metals - The recent tariff increases have led to a strategic rise in gold asset allocations, with expectations for gold prices to remain above $3,000 per ounce, benefiting gold companies and leading to a potential revaluation of A-share gold stocks [23][24] - China's rare metals, particularly those with competitive advantages, may become tools in the trade conflict, with export controls likely to increase prices and valuations in the rare earth sector [23][24] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to shift towards a defensive structure due to the heightened trade tensions, with recommendations to focus on sectors with lower trade dependencies and higher dividend yields, such as energy, telecommunications, and utilities [14][12] - The market's performance will largely depend on the outcomes of tariff negotiations and the implementation of these tariffs [14]