每日晨报 2025 年 3 月 17 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 2 月新增社融 2.23 万亿元 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:金融数据的噪音——2025年2月金融数据解读。货币政策展望:适度 宽松取向不改,但降息节奏可能发生改变,再次降息需要等待。降息窗口可能 会在二季度美联储降息预期重燃之后逐渐打开。在全面降息之前,可能会进行 结构性降息,调降结构性货币政策工具资金利率。降准和买断式逆回购都会是 释放中长期流动性的重要工具,同时降准可以节约银行成本,支持信用扩张, 1 季度落地的概率仍然较大。2025 年货币政策取向转向适度宽松仍是基本叙 事,全年降息降准的空间仍在,全年可能累计调降政策利率(7天逆回购利率) 30-40BP,引导 5 年期 LPR 下行 40-60BP。全年可能累计降准 100-150BP。 央行公开市场国债全年累计净买入可能在 2万亿元之上。 ...

☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 策略研究 · 周度报告 政策驱动消费板块修复加速 2025 年 03 月 16 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 研究助理:王雪莹 相关研究 2025-03-09，中国股市叙事：估值正悄然重构 2025-03-05，对 A 股市场投资的启示：2025 年政府 工作报告释放哪些重要信号? 2025-02-21,南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分 肢3 2025-02-19，DeepSeek 冲击波：AI 赋能加速市场 聚势重构 2025-02-12，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启 示? 2025-02-07, 金融"五篇大文章"共绘发展蓝图- 《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意 见》解读 2025-02-05，10%关税加征队 A 股的结构性冲击: 中美关税再升级,A 股出口链"压力测试" 2025-02-04，海外市场多变局，国内消费掀热潮 2025-01-30. 美联储捍卫独立性,市场定价鹰派 2025-01-24,中长期资金入市政策解读:耐心资本与 长期资 ...

河证券|CGS -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 北交所日报 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 国银河证券|CGS 图1:北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.03.14) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 03-12- 01-02 05:10 05-03- 0.5-0> 03:5 03-05 03:5 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.03.14) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 3 中国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 表1：涨幅前十股票的市场数据（2025.03.14/财务数据为 2024O3） | | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 所属行业 | 今日涨跌幅 | 市值 | 营业收入 | 归母净利润 | 市盈 ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 港股热点轮动预期加速 2025 年 03 月 16 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启示? 2025-02-04，春节假期热点跟踪：海外市场多变局，国 内消费掀热潮 2024-12-31, 2024年全球大类资产投资展望:变局·择 机 2024-12-27，2025年港股投资展望：潮涌·博弈 2024-12-26，2025年 A 股市场投资展望：重构·聚势 2024-12-19，美联储 12 月议息会议点评报告：美联储 传递节奏更换的渐进式降息信号 2024-12-13，中央经济工作会议对投资的启示 2024-11-19, 央国企改革助推市场估值结构重塑- 中 国企引领专题 2024-11-08，人大常委会后如何看市场? 2024-11-08, 特朗普当选后美联储降息或趋于谨慎 2024-11-06, 美国大选尘埃落定对资本市场影响几何? 2024-11-03，金融行业带动 A 股盈利修复 -- A 股 2024 年三季报业绩点评 2024- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the defense and military industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is expected to experience high prosperity in 2025, driven by both accelerated delivery of traditional equipment and explosive growth in emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [4][16]. - The demand side is characterized by a dual drive of "accelerated delivery of traditional equipment and explosive growth in emerging fields," with significant military budget allocations expected for new combat capabilities [4][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality and low-cost production as core directives for the future of the military industry, with expectations of increased efficiency and reduced costs over the long term [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook - The report highlights the necessity of completing the "14th Five-Year Plan" and achieving the centenary military goals, with a focus on high-quality development [11][16]. - The 2025 defense budget is set at 1.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a 7.2% increase from the previous year, with a significant portion allocated to new combat capabilities and military training [15][45]. 2. Market Performance - The defense and military index saw a weekly increase of 7.44%, outperforming other sectors [18][20]. - As of March 9, 2025, there are 166 listed companies in the military sector, accounting for 2.77% of the total A-share market capitalization [26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the marginal improvement in orders justifies an increase in fund positions, with a focus on "heavy orders, light performance" as the earnings reports approach [5][41]. - The military sector's current valuation is approximately 62.9%, indicating significant room for growth compared to technology stocks [5][32]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that anti-corruption measures are expected to enhance supply chain transparency, which will lower transaction costs and improve resource allocation efficiency [7][13]. - The emphasis on integrating military and civilian resources is expected to drive technological advancements and enhance combat capabilities [14][15]. 5. Company Updates - The report mentions that around 68 military companies have engaged in stock buybacks since January 2024, totaling approximately 3.858 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in the industry [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, anticipating a return to rapid growth in revenue and profit by 2026 [46]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its industry advantages, with a significant increase in marketing investments leading to a rise in market share despite a decline in profit margins [4][6]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 11.927 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.82%, while net profit is expected to decline by 3.42% to 1.981 billion yuan [6][46]. - The company is expected to lead the global market in sales and revenue for robotic vacuum cleaners by 2024, with a competitive strategy that includes increased marketing in China and absorbing tariff costs in the U.S. [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 8.654 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 30.55%. For 2024, revenue is expected to grow to 11.927 billion yuan [47]. - The net profit for 2023 was 2.051 billion yuan, with a projected decline to 1.981 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a profit margin decrease [47]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 10.73 yuan, down from 11.10 yuan in 2023, with a forecasted recovery to 13.06 yuan by 2026 [46][47]. Market Dynamics - The company is benefiting from national consumption stimulus policies, particularly in the home appliance sector, which is expected to see a significant increase in retail sales due to these initiatives [13][14]. - The cleaning appliance sector, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is experiencing robust growth, with a projected sales increase of 41.1% in 2024 [27][28]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by high brand concentration, with the top five brands in the robotic vacuum market holding a 93.6% market share [36]. Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a profit margin similar to the fourth quarter of 2024, with rapid market share growth anticipated in China, Europe, and the U.S. [6][11]. - The strategic focus on market share expansion is seen as a common industry approach, given the maturity of user experience in robotic vacuum cleaners [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [17]. Core Insights - The report provides insights into the trading volume and turnover rate of the North Exchange as of March 14, 2025, indicating a significant market activity [3][4]. - It highlights the average daily price changes across various sectors within the North Exchange compared to the A-share market, showcasing a competitive performance [5]. - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest gains and losses, providing detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization, revenue, net profit, and price-to-earnings ratios [6][7]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - The total trading amount and turnover rates are presented, showing fluctuations over time [4]. - The average turnover rate reached 16% as of March 14, 2025, indicating active trading conditions [4]. Market Performance - The average price change for stocks on the North Exchange was compared to the A-share market, with notable differences in performance [5]. - The report includes a detailed table of the top ten stocks with the highest daily gains, with "志晟信息" (Zhisheng Information) leading with a 30% increase [6]. - Conversely, the top ten stocks with the largest declines are also listed, with "星图测控" (Xingtu Measurement Control) showing a decrease of 15.11% [7]. Valuation Metrics - Valuation changes for the North Exchange and other innovation boards are illustrated, indicating trends in price-to-earnings ratios across different sectors [9][11]. - The report provides a breakdown of the price-to-earnings ratios by industry, highlighting the varying valuations within the market [11].

策略研究 · 周度报告 政策驱动消费板块修复加速 2025 年 03 月 16 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:王雪莹 相关研究 2025-03-09，中国股市叙事：估值正悄然重构 2025-03-05，对 A 股市场投资的启示：2025 年政府 工作报告释放哪些重要信号? 2025-02-21,南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分 肢3 2025-02-19，DeepSeek 冲击波：AI 赋能加速市场 聚势重构 2025-02-12，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启 示? 2025-02-07, 金融"五篇大文章"共绘发展蓝图- 《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意 见》解读 2025-02-05，10%关税加征队 A 股的结构性冲击: 中美关税再升级,A 股出口链"压力测试" 2025-02-04，海外市场多变局，国内消费掀热潮 2025-01-30. 美联储捍卫独立性,市场定价鹰派 2025-01-24,中长期资金入市政策解读:耐心资本与 长期资 ...

北交所周报 市场交投活跃,北交所再现定向可转债发行 2025年03月15日 核心观点 分析师 范想想 ☎：010-8092-7663 网：fanxiangxiang _yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130518090002 张智浩 网: zhangzhihao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524100001 2. 【银河北交所】深化国企改革,迈向高质量发展- 北交所国央企专题报告 3. 【银河北交所】2025 年度策略_并购重组助高质 发展，抓两新两重投资机遇 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025-03-14 相对沪深 300 表现图 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1. 【银河北交所】2024 中期策略_新质生产力赋能 北证，关注国央企投资价值 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 北证 50 指数周涨跌幅为+1.33%。北交所 264 家上市公司中,有 214 家公 ● 司周涨幅为正,美心翼申(+99.23%)涨幅领先,其次是克莱特(+79.77%)、 润普食品(+4 ...

策略研究 · 周度报告 港股热点轮动预期加速 2025 年 03 月 16 日 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 中国银河证券|CGS 目录 Catalog | 一、 本周重要事件 | . | | --- | --- | | (一) 国内方面 | | | (二) 海外方面 . | | | 二、 本周港股市场回顾 | | | (一) 指数涨跌幅. | | | (二) 资金流动 . | | | (三) 估值与风险溢价 | | | 三、 港股市场投资展望 | .. | | 四、 风险提示 | .. | 極: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:周美丽 相关研究 2025-02-21, 南向资金与国际资金结构同频还是分歧? 2025-02-13，地方两会对 A 股投资结构有哪些启示? 2025-02-04，春节假期热点跟踪：海外市场多变局，国 内消费掀热潮 2024-12-31, 2024年全球大类资产投资展望:变局·择 机 2024-12-27，2025年港股投资展望：潮涌·博弈 2024-12-26，2025年 ...