维持评级 高峰 | 市场数据 | 2025-04-11 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 300708 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 10.80 | | 上证指数 | 3,223.64 | | 总股本(万股) | 67,621 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 50,330 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 56 | —— 聚灿光电 2025 年一季报点评 ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ · 电子行业 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(亿元) | 27.60 | 33.19 | 37.67 | 43.73 | | 收入增长率% | 11.23 | 20.27 | 13.51 | 16.07 | | 归母净利润(亿元) | 1.96 | 3.02 | 3.52 | 3.92 | | 利润增速% | 61.44 | 54.50 | 16.51 | 11.45 | | 毛利率% | 13.70 | 15.71 | 15.98 | 15.54 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.30 ...

| 市场数据 | 2025-4-10 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002078.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 14.00 | | 上证指数 | 3,223.64 | | 总股本(万股) | 279,454 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 276,488 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 387.08 | -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 太阳纸业 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 公司点评报告 · 轻工行业 主要财务指标预测 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(百万元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 流动资产 | 12,762 | 14,314 | 17,734 | 21,221 | | 现金 | 3,234 | 4,07 ...

行业点评报告 · 通信行业 关税政策催新势,自主通信谱华篇 2025 年 04 月 11 日 核心观点 光迅科技（光芯片/光模块龙头）：光迅科技是国内少数具备光芯片自主研发 能力的企业,已实现 25G 及以下 DFB、EML 光芯片的规模量产,并逐步提升 50G、100G 高速光芯片的自供比例。在海外供应链受限的背景下,公司光芯 片有望进一步扩大市场份额。此外,数据中心对高速光模块的需求持续旺盛, 公司光模块主要面向国内市场销售,受关税影响有限。 国盾量子(量子通信龙头):公司依托"墨子号"等卫星的工程经验,构建了 550+ 项专利的技术护城河。2024年,中国电信增资入股国盾量子,进一步强化其 国资背景,加速量子通信产业化进程。量子技术连续第三年登上政府工作报告, 叠加 6G 和卫星互联网建设带来的增量空间,公司正迎来商业化重要拐点。 通宇通讯(5G 基站天线龙头+卫星通信地面设备新锐):通宇通讯在卫星通信 天线及射频器件领域技术积累深厚,其相控阵天线、T/R 组件等产品已应用于 国内低轨卫星星座建设,随着中国"千帆星座"等星座计划的加速推进,市场 需求有望持续放量。 风险提示:全球政治经济形势变动的不确定 ...

2025 年 4 月 11 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 每日晨报 银河观点集锦 宏观:任尔东西南北风 核心观点 要闻 美国 3 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.4% 每日晨报 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:任尔东西南北风。投资启示:中国市场方面,权益市场表现值得期待。 国内大循环的完备性足以让中国在全球"抗差逻辑"下相对美国具有核心优势。 "加征-反制-再加征-再反制"对于权益市场定价造成一定困扰,防御主题表现 更优(必选消费、金融等);中期视角,以确定性拥抱不确定性,内需、硬科 技仍是主线。固收方面,基本面扰动和增量政策预期形成对冲,避险逻辑缓和 央行流动性投放预期将使得债市做多胜率提高。 银行:汇金增持壮大中长期资金力量,重申银行红利价值 -- 中央汇金公司增 O 持 ETF 解读。降准降息预期增强,低利率环境延续,叠加全球政治经济环境 不确定性,资金避险属性提升,银行稳分红、 ...

行业点评报告 · 通信行业 关税政策催新势,自主通信谱华篇 2025 年 04 月 11 日 核心观点 光迅科技（光芯片/光模块龙头）：光迅科技是国内少数具备光芯片自主研发 能力的企业,已实现 25G 及以下 DFB、EML 光芯片的规模量产,并逐步提升 50G、100G 高速光芯片的自供比例。在海外供应链受限的背景下,公司光芯 片有望进一步扩大市场份额。此外,数据中心对高速光模块的需求持续旺盛, 公司光模块主要面向国内市场销售,受关税影响有限。 国盾量子(量子通信龙头):公司依托"墨子号"等卫星的工程经验,构建了 550+ 项专利的技术护城河。2024年,中国电信增资入股国盾量子,进一步强化其 国资背景,加速量子通信产业化进程。量子技术连续第三年登上政府工作报告, 叠加 6G 和卫星互联网建设带来的增量空间,公司正迎来商业化重要拐点。 通宇通讯(5G 基站天线龙头+卫星通信地面设备新锐):通宇通讯在卫星通信 天线及射频器件领域技术积累深厚,其相控阵天线、T/R 组件等产品已应用于 国内低轨卫星星座建设,随着中国"千帆星座"等星座计划的加速推进,市场 需求有望持续放量。 风险提示:全球政治经济形势变动的不确定 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market amidst global uncertainties, emphasizing the advantages of domestic circulation and the potential for growth in the equity market [6][9][12] - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, estimating a negative effect of approximately 8-10 percentage points on export growth and a 1.5-2.0 percentage point impact on GDP [5][21] - The report outlines the government's commitment to boosting domestic consumption through various policies, including a significant increase in special bonds for consumer subsidies [25][28] Macro Analysis - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, while China's CPI is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted decline of around -0.4% in April [1][21] - The report anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal stimulus of 1.5-2 trillion yuan to support domestic demand and consumption [21][22] - The report notes that the core CPI has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in March, indicating potential stabilization in consumer prices [19][22] Banking Sector - The report emphasizes the role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, in stabilizing market expectations by increasing their holdings in ETFs [9][10] - It highlights the expected continuation of a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of bank dividends and low volatility [13][12] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a valuation reset, driven by increased long-term capital inflows and improved market efficiency [12][13] Consumer Sector - The report discusses the expansion of the "immediate refund" tax policy for foreign tourists, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and benefit high-quality domestic products [25][26][28] - It notes that the government's focus on boosting consumption is reflected in various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending capabilities [25][28] - The report anticipates that the combination of the "immediate refund" policy and relaxed entry visa regulations will significantly contribute to the growth of inbound tourism consumption [26][28] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming (古茗) is identified as a leading brand in the Chinese tea beverage market, with a strong focus on quality and a robust expansion strategy [34][36] - The company has maintained a high average profit margin for franchisees, indicating strong brand recognition and operational efficiency [35][36] - The report highlights the company's commitment to supply chain management and R&D investment, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive market [35][36] Industry Trends - Tai Chi Co., Ltd. (太极股份) is noted for its strategic focus on AI and domestic innovation, with expectations for performance improvement in the latter half of the year [38][39] - The company has reported a decline in revenue and profit but is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic innovation initiatives [38][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced technologies to enhance service capabilities and drive future growth [40][41]

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 北证50 沪深300 ⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫⚫ 国银河证券|CGS 北交所日报 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 图2：北证与 A 股各行业当日涨跌幅（算数平均/%/ 2025.04.10) ■北交所算数平均涨跌幅 ■A股算数平均涨跌幅 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Spirity Meditio 资料来源：iFinD，中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 图1：北证成交额与换手率情况（截至 2025.04.10) ■ 成交金额（合计/亿元) -换手率（算数平均/%） 600 16.0 14.0 500 12.0 400 10.0 300 8.0 6.0 200 4.0 100 2.0 0 0.0 02-25 04-10 02-13 02-17 02-19 02-21 02-27 03-03 03-05 03-07 03-13 03-17 03-19 02-11 03-11 03-25 03-27 02-07 03-21 04-02 04-04 04-08 -3( 河证券|CGS 北交所日 ...

公司点评报告 · 公用事业行业 现金分红比例提升,积极探索绿电+业务 - 金开新能 2024 年年报点评 | | | 维持评级 Hilize 分析师 陶贻功 ☎：010-8092-7673 网: taoyigong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030001 梁悠南 2025 年 04 月 10 日 1. 【银河环保公用】公司深度_金开新能:聚焦优质 风光资源,装机成长空间广阔 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ☎: 010-8092-7656 网: liangyounan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070002 研究助理:马敏 网: mamin_yj@chinastock.com.cn | 市场数据 | 2025-04-09 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 600821 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 5.61 | | 上证指数 | 3,186.81 | | 总股本(万股) | 199,726 | | 实际流通 A 股(万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.612 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.55% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 802.72 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.05% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a cash dividend ratio of 49.02%, up from 43.28% in 2023 [4] - The company is actively exploring green electricity and related businesses, with a focus on high-energy applications such as computing and chemical industries [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a net investment income of 301 million yuan, a significant increase of 108% year-on-year [4] - The company’s total installed capacity reached 5.55 GW by the end of 2024, with wind power at 1.51 GW and solar power at 3.91 GW [4] - The average on-grid electricity price for wind power was 0.424 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, while for solar power it was 0.442 yuan/kWh, down 6.2% year-on-year [4] - The company’s gross profit margins for wind and solar power were 65.55% and 49.62%, respectively [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 923.14 million yuan, 1.134 billion yuan, and 1.377 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - Revenue growth rates are projected at 12.82% for 2025, 16.24% for 2026, and 14.89% for 2027 [5] - The company’s PE ratios are forecasted to be 12.14x, 9.87x, and 8.14x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]

☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 宏观动态报告 核心 CPI 明显回升, PPI 有待政策加码 3 月物价数据解读 2025年4月10日 分析师 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 3 月 CPI 环比降幅扩至为-0.4%（前值-0.2%），同比跌幅收窄至-0.1% (前值 ● -0.7%）,过去五年(春节在１月份,下同)的季节性环比均值为-0.4%,其 中食品价格环比下跌 1.4%(前值-0.5%）,过去五年环比均值为-1.7%;非食 品价格环比下跌 0.2%(前值-0.1%），过去五年环比均值为 0%, 食品和非食 品价格下跌共同带动 CPI 环比跌幅扩大。核心 CPI 由跌转涨,环比持平为 0%, 同比上涨 0.5%。PPI 环比降幅为-0.4%(前值-0.1%)，同比下降 2 ...