丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 住房的均衡定价在哪儿？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 自住和投资的底层逻辑是一致的，只是利率的选取可能有差别，自住的利率取决于理财和房贷， 投资的利率取决于理财。中长期视角，房价预期涨幅的参照系锚定收入或通胀，并映射在房租 上；复盘过往上行周期，收入或通胀驱动下，利率和折旧被房价预期涨幅所掩盖，与大多数资 产定价类似，增长预期是决定估值的第一要素；但如果收入或通胀承压，房价没有明显的预期 涨幅，利率和折旧就是均衡定价的核心。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 住房的均衡定价在哪儿？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾有明显提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加 大，产业政策 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 2026Q1 煤炭供应是否会出现"开门红"？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 过去 5 年，Q1 原煤产量往往同比提升。2026Q1 原煤产量是否会再次出现"开门红"？我们认 为，在"反内卷"政策背景下，供给的"季节性"有望让位于政策的"约束性"，供给的弹性或 被压缩，2026Q1 原煤产量同比增量有望较为有限。考虑到煤价上有顶下有底，因此红利和攻 守兼备标的胜率较高。若需求较好、煤价改善超预期，则可关注目前低估值、筹码少、盈利分 位较低的弹性进攻标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

- The report introduces several active quantitative products launched by the Changjiang Quantitative Team since July 2023, including the Dividend Selection Strategy and the Industry High Win Rate Strategy[7][14] - The "Dividend 50 Combination" strategy outperformed the CSI Dividend Total Return Index with a weekly excess return of approximately 0.52%, ranking around the 17th percentile among similar products[8][16][23] - The "Electronic Balanced Allocation Enhanced Combination" strategy achieved a weekly return of about 4.82%, slightly underperforming the overall electronic sector return[8][26][33]

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 行业研究丨专题报告丨多元金融 [Table_Title] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 三年收缩后，2025 年迎来了向上拐点，业务量及收入均显著 提升。同时受科创板行情回暖影响，2025 年券商科创板跟投收益大幅改善。展望 2026 年，随 着市场交投及权益自营基数走高，传统经纪及自营收入弹性减弱背景下，投行承销收入及跟投 收益有望成为券商业绩的重要边际增量。看好龙头券商有望以资源、规模优势持续巩固竞争优 势，推荐国泰海通、中信证券、中金公司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title2] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ [Table_Summary2] 券商投行业务经历三年收紧周期后，迎来向上修复拐点 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - Google has released Gemini 3 Flash, which combines high performance with low cost. The model shows a threefold speed improvement compared to Gemini 2.5 Pro, with response times under one second. It also reduces token usage by approximately 30%, making it significantly cheaper than its predecessor [10][10] - The FORCE conference saw the launch of Doubao Model 1.8, optimized for multimodal agent scenarios, enhancing its ability to handle complex tasks. Its video understanding capability has doubled, and it supports intelligent context management, leading to a tenfold increase in daily usage compared to the previous year [10][10] - The report suggests focusing on specific AI segments, including high-quality IP benefiting from AI advancements, major internet companies with traffic and data advantages, verticals like advertising and education that have proven business models abroad, and AI-integrated gaming companies [10][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - Google launched Gemini 3 Flash, which offers high performance and low cost. Doubao Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 pro were also released at the FORCE conference [5][5] Event Commentary - Gemini 3 Flash's core advantages include high-speed responses, superior performance in benchmark tests, and significant cost efficiency. Doubao Model 1.8 enhances visual understanding and supports complex task management, leading to substantial growth in usage metrics [10][10]

Core Insights - The foundation for the valuation recovery of bank stocks is the establishment of a solid risk bottom line, with bank stocks currently in the process of confirming this bottom line [4][19] - Stable allocation value is leading the valuation recovery, with financial supply-side reforms accelerating in the long term, resulting in increased concentration of market share among state-owned banks and leading city commercial banks [4][7] - The focus for 2026 is on the stabilization of net interest margins and retail risk pressures, with expectations for improved liability costs driving net interest margins to stabilize [8][21] Group 1: Risk Bottom Line and Valuation Recovery - The valuation cycle of bank stocks fluctuates around the operating cycle, characterized by a pressured macro environment and significantly narrowed bank interest margins since 2023 [7][19] - The market anticipates a stabilization of interest margins and overall asset quality by 2026, although retail and real estate sectors remain under pressure [7][19] - The ongoing process of establishing a risk bottom line is crucial for the recovery of bank stock valuations, with state-owned banks expected to play a leading role in the consolidation of financial institutions [7][30] Group 2: Fundamental Focus on Interest Margin Stabilization and Retail Risk - Total loan growth is expected to decline to 5.5% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1 trillion yuan, primarily due to continued pressure from retail loans [8][40] - The net interest margin is projected to stabilize, with a potential decrease in deposit costs by 20 to 30 basis points as excess savings from three-year fixed deposits mature [8][21] - Asset quality concerns are particularly focused on mortgage and collateralized loans, with the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of current mortgage loans remaining at controllable levels [8][21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Bank stocks are still significantly undervalued from a PB-ROE perspective, especially among quality city commercial banks [9][29] - Despite short-term fluctuations in funding, the allocation value of bank stocks remains intact, with insurance capital continuing to increase its holdings in response to asset scarcity [9][21] - Recommended stocks include Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, with a focus on quality city commercial banks and dividend-yielding assets like China Merchants Bank and Bank of Communications [11][9]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In November, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell to -13.1% year-on-year, marking the weakest level since September 2024[5] - Revenue growth for the same month showed a slight improvement, decreasing by only -0.3% year-on-year[5] - The decline in profit growth is primarily attributed to a significant drop in profit margins, despite a recovery in volume growth[6] Group 2: Export and Industry Performance - While profits in export-related industries showed improvement, they did not offset the overall decline in profits across sectors[6] - The mining industry experienced a profit decline of -21.2%, while the manufacturing sector's profit growth rate fell to -13.5%[6] - The recovery in exports, particularly in electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, contributed to a 5.9% year-on-year increase in exports, boosting overall profits by 4.98 percentage points[6] Group 3: Inventory and Operational Pressure - By the end of November, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory rose to 4.6%, indicating a passive accumulation of inventory due to weak demand[6] - The turnover days for finished goods increased to 20.5 days, reflecting worsening operational pressures on enterprises[6] - The overall business pressure is expected to continue accumulating, with potential implications for the employment market[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is a significant possibility that policy measures will be implemented in early 2026 to stimulate growth and stabilize profits amid weakening external demand[6] - The upcoming national development and reform meeting emphasizes the need for proactive policy measures to ensure a strong start in 2026[6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an "eight consecutive days" rise, supported by strong domestic capital, with trading volumes exceeding 1.9 trillion CNY on December 25 and 26[4] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark, influenced by the US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, becoming a key variable for future market trends[4] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommended trading strategy during this RMB appreciation phase is a mid-term focus on "pan-technology" and a short-term defensive approach, emphasizing sectors like commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications[1] - Investors are advised to maintain a low position in defensive stocks such as paper and aviation, which directly benefit from RMB appreciation, especially during the annual report forecast period[1] Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Beneficiary sectors are categorized into three tiers: - Tier 1: Cost and debt improvement sectors that directly benefit from RMB appreciation, showing high elasticity[4] - Tier 2: Core assets driven by capital flow, benefiting from increased attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets[4] - Tier 3: Asset revaluation opportunities due to the intrinsic value enhancement of RMB-denominated assets[4] Group 4: Historical Context - Since 2017, the RMB has experienced three rapid appreciation phases, each with different underlying logic and market conditions, including core asset bull markets and significant recovery in exports[5] - The current phase differs from previous ones, characterized by domestic capital dominance and a focus on technology-driven growth rather than economic recovery[6]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue a slow bull trend in 2026, with signs of a profit bottom emerging and ample liquidity gradually reflecting in the performance of listed companies [4][9] - Valuation metrics indicate that the price-to-earnings ratio of stocks relative to bonds is near historical averages, with a low interest rate environment providing upward valuation momentum [9][10] - The Chinese stock market has significant room for improvement in its securitization rate, suggesting potential for further growth [9][10] Industry Allocation Outlook - The report emphasizes a focus on technology, domestic circulation, strategic security, and opening up to the outside world as key investment directions [4][10] - The technology sector is highlighted as a primary area of interest, particularly in AI applications and robotics, which are expected to drive market performance [7][10] - The cyclical recovery is anticipated, with attention on sectors such as high-tech manufacturing, new consumption patterns, and resource scarcity [10] 2025 Market Review - The market has shown a steady upward trend, characterized by a slow bull market, with technology and metals leading the gains [8][23] - Key themes included AI-driven growth, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with significant performance from small-cap and resource stocks [23][24] - The overall market performance has been robust, with major indices achieving over 15% gains, particularly in the ChiNext and Northbound indices [23][28] Profit and Valuation Trends - As of Q3 2025, the overall revenue growth for A-shares has turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and the ChiNext leading with a 15.74% increase [36][40] - Profit growth has also shown significant improvement, with A-shares experiencing an 11.45% year-on-year increase in profits, and the ChiNext achieving a remarkable 32.90% growth [36][40] - There is a structural divergence in profitability, with high valuations correlating with high growth in sectors like technology, while domestic demand sectors lag behind [42][45] Global Economic Context - The report anticipates a favorable global liquidity environment due to ongoing monetary and credit easing, particularly in the U.S., which is expected to positively impact Chinese exports [9][10] - The U.S. economy is projected to experience a mild recovery in 2026, with inflation trends remaining manageable, supporting a favorable investment climate for equities [55]

[Table_Summary] 2026 年债市预计宽幅震荡、交易属性提升，我们认为财政发债拉久期和"货币赤字化"不及预 期或成为主要原因。预计明年 10 年期国债含税收益率在 1.6%-1.9%区间震荡、中枢 1.7%，延 续"低利率+高波动+下有底、上有顶"。后续若想要超长债利差修复，我们提出了主要的三种 路径。节奏上，Q1 前段预计收益率易下难上，Q2-Q3 债市或逆风，Q4 重新找方向。由于债市 的抢跑和透支，今年前三季度经济基本面对于债市中性偏空，明年或保持相似影响节奏，债市 对基本面的定价或也延续非对称性。 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 迎接债市新时代——债市 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 SFC：BWI629 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490525080001 请阅读最 ...