Economic Overview - In June, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate rebounded to 8.9% year-on-year, while the credit growth rate remained stable at 7.0%[2] - New social financing in June amounted to 4.2 trillion RMB, an increase of 0.9 trillion RMB year-on-year[6] Government Debt and Credit Impact - Government bonds and credit have significantly supported the year-on-year increase in social financing, with government bonds contributing 1.4 trillion RMB in June, up 0.5 trillion RMB year-on-year[6] - Excluding government bonds, the social financing growth rate rose to 6.1%[6] Future Projections - The high point of social financing growth may return to above 9% within the year, driven by base effects and the pre-issuance of government bonds[2] - However, there is pressure for a decline in social financing growth in the second half of the year due to potential economic indicators weakening and escalating trade conflicts[2] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - There remains a window for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions within the year, alongside the possibility of structural monetary tools and the resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank[2] - The main focus for Q3 will be on accelerating the issuance of existing government bonds, with a net financing of 8.5 trillion RMB as of July 13, up 4.3 trillion RMB year-on-year[6] Loan Trends - Corporate medium and long-term loans turned positive year-on-year for the first time in four months, with an increase of 400 billion RMB, while household medium and long-term loans continued to show a year-on-year increase[6] - In June, new loans totaled 2.2 trillion RMB, with household loans contributing 0.6 trillion RMB, reflecting a slight recovery in corporate credit demand[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [12] Core Views - The report highlights the scarcity of popular pure electric SUV models priced above 300,000, driven by concerns over range and charging anxiety. The company is strategically focusing on high pure electric regions and highways to accelerate the deployment of charging facilities, which is expected to enhance the sales potential of its pure electric models [3][7][10] - The new model, Mega, has seen significant success following its upgrade, indicating strong potential for future sales growth in the pure electric segment [8][10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The penetration rate of new energy SUVs priced above 300,000 has stabilized around 45%. Monthly sales of new energy SUVs averaged approximately 78,000 units, with total sales from January to May 2025 reaching 713,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 9.7%. The decline is primarily attributed to a drop in sales of traditional luxury brands [6][17] - The share of pure electric vehicles in the new energy segment has decreased from 74.7% (2020-2022) to 31.7% (2023 to May 2025), indicating a shift towards hybrid models [6][25] Charging Infrastructure - The company has accelerated the establishment of supercharging stations, with over 2,500 stations currently operational and plans to reach 4,000 by the end of the year. This initiative aims to alleviate range anxiety for pure electric vehicles, particularly in high-demand regions like the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area [7][33] - As of June 2025, the company has covered over 125 highways with 839 supercharging stations, leading the industry in self-built highway charging stations [7][33] Product Development - The new Mega model has been upgraded significantly, with improvements in smart driving hardware and cabin configurations. The expected stable delivery volume is projected to reach 2,500-3,000 units per month, reflecting a growth of 150%-200% compared to the previous model [8][54] - The upcoming i8 model is designed to maximize internal space and reduce maintenance costs, featuring a pure electric architecture that enhances usability compared to hybrid models [9][76] Financial Outlook - The report anticipates a new cycle for pure electric vehicles, projecting significant sales growth for the company. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 8.3 billion, 12.4 billion, and 15.7 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25.5X, 17.1X, and 13.5X [10]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 当前券商行业及个股 AH 溢价如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年以来港股表现较为强势，AH 溢价指数随之回落。本文据此展开，梳理券商行业及个股 当前 AH 溢价情况，并进一步梳理其股价弹性及回撤情况。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 当前券商行业及个股 AH 溢价如何？ [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 恒生沪深港通 AH 股溢价指数衡量了两地上市公司 A 股相对于港股的整体溢价情况，2025 年 以来港股表现较为强势，AH 溢价指数随之回落，年初以来下跌 11.6%（截至 2025.7.11）。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-07-14 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank]投资评级 看好丨维持 市场表现对比图(近 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 钢铁反内卷的动力和难点 报告要点 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 本周市场对反内卷政策的关注度较高，但对哪些行业是反内卷的重点行业存有分歧。我们认为，钢 [Table_Summary] 铁或是反内卷首当其冲的重点行业，国央企主导的竞争格局保障了政策执行和监督上具有可行性。 （1）一是钢铁行业规模大，外部性强，且盈利处于底部，尚未具备长期改善的条件；（2）黑色产 业链利润分配不合理，大部分利润流向海外；（3）黑色产业链跌价压力大，持续跌价或加剧工业品 的通缩风险。不过，相比于 16 年的钢铁去产能，当前钢铁反内卷执行难度或更大。落地过程或相 对细水长流，有助于钢铁板块从底部缓慢修复，夯实行业中长期的盈利。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Titl ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From July 7th to July 13th, local government bonds were issued with a total of 231.79 billion yuan, including 78.487 billion yuan in new bonds and 153.303 billion yuan in refinancing bonds. From July 14th to July 20th, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 251.183 billion yuan, including 189.046 billion yuan in new bonds and 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][4][5]. - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds totaled 4.194012 trillion yuan, with 1.805487 trillion yuan disclosed in 2025. The total disclosed special new special - purpose bonds in 2025 reached 486.526 billion yuan, and 1.677039 trillion yuan since 2023 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - The net supply of local government bonds from July 7th to July 13th was 110.2 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from July 14th to July 20th is 150.5 billion yuan [12][15]. - Comparing the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds in June and July shows differences in new bonds, new general bonds, new special - purpose bonds, and refinancing bonds [14][17]. Local Bond Net Supply - As of July 13th, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 56.80%, and that of new special - purpose bonds was 50.25%. The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities for the year is presented in the relevant chart [26]. Special Bond Issuance Details - As of July 13th, the fourth - round special refinancing bonds' issuance statistics by region are provided, with different amounts in each round and region. The issuance statistics of special new special - purpose bonds from 2023 to 2025 by region are also shown [32][35]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented, including the changes in spreads for different maturities and regions [39][42]. New Special - Purpose Bond Investment Directions - The investment directions of new special - purpose bonds are presented, with a note that the latest monthly statistics only consider issued new bonds [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The liquidity remained relatively loose but showed a marginal and slight tightening trend during the week. From July 7 to July 13, the net payment of government bonds increased, most of the yields to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market decreased. From July 14 to July 20, the expected net payment of government bonds is 405.83 billion yuan, and the maturity volume of NCDs is about 802.8 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase operations involved a release of 425.7 billion yuan and a withdrawal of 652.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. From July 14 to July 18, 425.7 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. On July 15, 100 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature, and considering the tax - payment deadline on the same day and subsequent tax - payment outflows, the central bank may conduct outright reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Fund Rate Performance**: From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.38% respectively, down 5.1 basis points and 19.9 basis points compared to June 30 - July 4. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.47% and 1.51% respectively, down 9.7 basis points and 13.2 basis points compared to June 30 - July 4. The significant decline in the weekly average of fund rates was mainly due to the cross - quarter effect in the previous week. Since July, the funds have been generally stable and loose, but in mid - July, affected by the upcoming tax - payment outflows, the fund rates increased slightly. On July 11, DR001 was 1.34%, about 3 basis points higher than on July 7 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From July 7 to July 13, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 251.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 217 billion yuan compared to June 30 - July 6. Among them, the net financing of treasury bonds was about 139.9 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 111.2 billion yuan. From July 14 to July 20, the expected net payment of government bonds is 405.83 billion yuan, including about 276.05 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 129.78 billion yuan of net local government bond financing [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield to Maturity**: As of July 11, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year NCDs were 1.5195%, 1.5600%, and 1.6303% respectively, up 2, 3, and 4 basis points compared to July 4, 2025. During the week, as the funds tightened marginally, the primary issuance price of NCDs increased, and the secondary yields rose [8]. - **Net Financing and Issuance Rate**: From July 7 to July 13, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 8.34 billion yuan, compared with about - 0.28 billion yuan from June 29 to July 6. From July 14 to July 20, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 802.8 billion yuan, with an increased roll - over pressure compared to the previous week. On July 11, 2025, the issuance rates of 1 - year NCDs for state - owned large - scale banks and joint - stock banks were 1.62% and 1.63% respectively, up from 1.59% on July 4 [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.18%, compared with 108.53% from June 30 to July 4. On July 11 and July 4, the calculated leverage ratios in the inter - bank bond market were about 107.86% and 108.58% respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Civil Aviation Information Network (0696.HK) [10] Core Insights - China Civil Aviation Information Network (China Aviation Information) is the only GDS system in China, dominating the airline ticket booking segment. The company has a strong and stable profitability with ROE and ROIC consistently around 15%. The current PE valuation is only 11-12 times, about half of its historical average, which supports a positive recommendation [2][6] - The company has a robust cash flow with limited capital expenditure, maintaining over 10 billion in cash and equivalents, while normal annual capital expenditure is less than 500 million. The dividend payout ratio has been adjusted to 35%-45% from 30%-40%, indicating potential for increased returns to shareholders [6][49] Company Overview - China Aviation Information originated from the Civil Aviation Administration's computer center and became an independent company in 1996. It was established as a joint venture with all domestic airlines in 2000 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2001. The company is controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [5][17] - The company has evolved its products and services over decades, expanding its client base from airlines to the entire aviation industry chain, becoming the leading supplier of information technology solutions in China's aviation tourism sector [5][27] Business Model - The company operates a light asset and low leverage model, with a stable net profit margin around 30%. Following the pandemic, profitability has been recovering, with a projected net profit margin of 24% in 2024 [6][52] - China Aviation Information's booking scale is the largest globally, with over 95% market share in domestic civil aviation passenger transport and approximately 80% in cross-border passenger transport. The pricing for bookings is lower than that of overseas GDS systems, contributing to a sustainable business model [7][30] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.8% in revenue and 11.4% in net profit from 2011 to 2019. Despite the impact of the pandemic, revenue is expected to grow by 9.8% compared to 2019 levels by 2024 [39][40] - The average PE and PB ratios are 22 times and 2.3 times, respectively, reflecting the market's valuation of the company's stable and efficient business model [50][52] Future Prospects - The company is exploring auxiliary business opportunities through subsidiaries, focusing on travel finance and technology services, which have significant growth potential. The integration of AI technology may further transform the ticket agency business [8][30]

- The report focuses on the performance of the A-share banking sector, which has seen a significant increase of 20.63% from the beginning of 2025 to July 11, 2025, outperforming the insurance and securities sectors[2][6][15] - The analysis highlights that state-owned institutions, foreign institutions, and insurance institutions lead in terms of bank stock holdings[8][29] - State-owned institutions have a higher allocation in state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, while foreign institutions have a relatively balanced allocation among joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and state-owned banks[8][29] - Insurance institutions have a high concentration of holdings in joint-stock banks, with nearly 80% of their bank stock holdings in joint-stock banks as of Q1 2025[8][29] - The report notes that from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, the bank stock holdings of state-owned institutions, foreign institutions, and linked funds showed a fluctuating upward trend, with foreign institutions being the most active, increasing their bank stock holdings by approximately 37 billion yuan in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024[8][29] - The institutional investor share of bank stocks in the Shanghai market has gradually increased in recent years, reaching over 65% in 2023[7][24] - The share of institutional investors in joint-stock banks and state-owned banks was relatively higher, reaching approximately 67% and 72% respectively in 2023, while the share in city commercial banks and rural commercial banks showed a significant upward trend[7][24] - The report provides detailed data on the holdings of different types of investors in bank stocks, including state-owned institutions, foreign institutions, and insurance institutions, with specific figures for Q1 2025[30]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保行业 [Table_Title] 燃料电池销量阶段性放缓，氢能产业战略持续推 进 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 氢能产业发展进入瓶颈期，市场产生了一定质疑声，近期习总书记再次与风电光伏并列提及氢 能；2025 年 6 月，国家能源局发布《关于组织开展能源领域氢能试点工作的通知》，试点项目 申报涉及氢能产业的"制储输用"全链条。除了政策支持以外，氢能大项目不断落地，头部企 业积极提交上市申请表，氢能产业仍处于快速发展中。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 环保行业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 燃料电池销量阶段性放缓，氢能产业战略持续 推进 [Table_Summary2] 氢能产业发展战略持续推进 氢能重大项目不断落地 除了氢能政策持续推进以外，氢能重大项目也有 ...

- The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced the revision of the "Compilation Plan for the ChiNext Composite Index" on July 11, 2025, introducing two exclusion mechanisms: monthly exclusion of risk warning stocks and ESG negative exclusion mechanism[3][6][11] - The monthly exclusion mechanism for risk warning stocks removes sample stocks that are announced to be under risk warning from the index starting from the next trading day after the second Friday of the following month. Stocks with risk warnings revoked are added back to the index under the same timeline[6][14] - The ESG negative exclusion mechanism removes sample stocks with ESG ratings downgraded to C or below from the index starting from the next trading day after the second Friday of the following month. Stocks with ESG ratings upgraded above C are added back to the index under the same timeline[6][14] - After the revision, the ChiNext Composite Index includes 1,316 sample stocks, covering 95% of ChiNext-listed companies and 98% of total market capitalization. The top three industries are industrials (32%), information technology (26%), and healthcare (12%). High-tech enterprises account for 92%, strategic emerging industries for 79%, and advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green low-carbon sectors for 74%[6][11] - The monthly exclusion cycle enhances timeliness compared to the usual semi-annual index adjustment, while maintaining operational feasibility for passive products tracking the index[11] - Short-term impacts may include passive fund selling pressure on excluded stocks, while long-term effects could foster "survival of the fittest," encouraging listed companies to focus on financial stability and ESG performance, driving market valuation systems toward high-quality development[11]