丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保行业 [Table_Title] 燃料电池销量阶段性放缓，氢能产业战略持续推 进 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 氢能产业发展进入瓶颈期，市场产生了一定质疑声，近期习总书记再次与风电光伏并列提及氢 能；2025 年 6 月，国家能源局发布《关于组织开展能源领域氢能试点工作的通知》，试点项目 申报涉及氢能产业的"制储输用"全链条。除了政策支持以外，氢能大项目不断落地，头部企 业积极提交上市申请表，氢能产业仍处于快速发展中。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 环保行业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 燃料电池销量阶段性放缓，氢能产业战略持续 推进 [Table_Summary2] 氢能产业发展战略持续推进 氢能重大项目不断落地 除了氢能政策持续推进以外，氢能重大项目也有 ...

- The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced the revision of the "Compilation Plan for the ChiNext Composite Index" on July 11, 2025, introducing two exclusion mechanisms: monthly exclusion of risk warning stocks and ESG negative exclusion mechanism[3][6][11] - The monthly exclusion mechanism for risk warning stocks removes sample stocks that are announced to be under risk warning from the index starting from the next trading day after the second Friday of the following month. Stocks with risk warnings revoked are added back to the index under the same timeline[6][14] - The ESG negative exclusion mechanism removes sample stocks with ESG ratings downgraded to C or below from the index starting from the next trading day after the second Friday of the following month. Stocks with ESG ratings upgraded above C are added back to the index under the same timeline[6][14] - After the revision, the ChiNext Composite Index includes 1,316 sample stocks, covering 95% of ChiNext-listed companies and 98% of total market capitalization. The top three industries are industrials (32%), information technology (26%), and healthcare (12%). High-tech enterprises account for 92%, strategic emerging industries for 79%, and advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green low-carbon sectors for 74%[6][11] - The monthly exclusion cycle enhances timeliness compared to the usual semi-annual index adjustment, while maintaining operational feasibility for passive products tracking the index[11] - Short-term impacts may include passive fund selling pressure on excluded stocks, while long-term effects could foster "survival of the fittest," encouraging listed companies to focus on financial stability and ESG performance, driving market valuation systems toward high-quality development[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [2] Core Insights - The military electronics components sector is expected to continue its demand growth, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and preparations for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][30] - The report highlights the potential for sustained industry prosperity, particularly in the second half of 2025, as military equipment orders are anticipated to peak [35] - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality improvement, penetration rate enhancement, and average transaction value increase as core investment targets [96] Summary by Sections Military Electronics Components - The demand for military electronic components is projected to remain robust, with a focus on overcoming challenges during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and preparing for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8][30] - The industry is characterized by high entry barriers and a reliance on self-raised funds for R&D, which necessitates reasonable profit margins from the supply chain [23][24] Guangdong Hongda - Guangdong Hongda operates in three main sectors: civil explosives, mining services, and military equipment, with a stable foundation in civil explosives and mining services [38][41] - The military equipment segment is expected to see significant growth, particularly with the integration of Jiangsu Hongguang, leading to a projected revenue increase of 104% in 2024 [41] Filihua - Filihua is focusing on high-performance materials for the electronics industry, including quartz electronic cloth and photomask precision processing, to meet the growing demand in the semiconductor and display sectors [58][81] - The company aims to enhance its production capabilities and market presence in the high-end electronic materials sector, with significant investments planned for new projects [81][86]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to continue high growth in mid-year performance, with ongoing strong market trading activity. The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - The insurance sector is guided by a recent notice from the Ministry of Finance, emphasizing long-term investment strategies and management capabilities, which is expected to drive stable long-term capital inflows into the market. The report recommends companies like Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance based on their stable profitability and dividend rates [2][4] - The report also suggests a focus on companies with strong performance elasticity and valuation levels, recommending Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [2][4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery with high trading volumes, and mid-year performance is expected to show significant growth. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks within this sector [2][4] - The average daily trading volume in the market has increased to 14,961.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.80% increase week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in trading activity [5][36] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry has seen a year-on-year increase in premium income, with total premiums reaching 30,602 billion yuan in May 2025, up 3.77% from the previous year. This includes a 5.22% increase in property insurance and a 3.28% increase in life insurance [19][20] - The report highlights the stable asset allocation of insurance funds, with a significant portion invested in bonds and stock funds, indicating a robust investment strategy [25][24] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index has shown a 4.0% increase this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.1%, indicating strong sector performance [5][16] - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-bank sector is strong, with the securities sector rising by 4.5% and the insurance sector by 1.7% [16][21] Financing Activities - In June 2025, equity financing reached 544.19 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3140.2% month-on-month, while bond financing also saw a rise to 88.3 billion yuan, up 21.3% [45][47] - The report indicates a recovery in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a notable increase in new issuances in June 2025 [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]

Group 1: Market Performance - Fund holdings outperformed northbound holdings, with non-fund holdings leading the gains[2] - The real estate sector showed significant growth, with a 6.07% increase, exceeding the overall A-share market by 4.37%[22] - The healthcare sector's leading stocks significantly outperformed the industry benchmark[4] Group 2: Market Trends - Market rotation speed across industries and styles remains high[4] - Small-cap and high-valuation stocks are currently favored, with the reversal index showing strong performance[4] - Digital currency and specialized innovation themes are leading the market[4] Group 3: Investment Insights - Non-fund holdings index gained 2.88%, while fund holdings index only increased by 1.16%[14] - The reversal index has shown a notable increase, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards recovery[26] - The specialized innovation 100 index rose by 3.61%, highlighting strong interest in niche sectors[28]

- The report introduces several active quantitative strategies launched by the Changjiang Golden Engineering team since July 2023, including the Dividend Selection Strategy and the Industry High Win Rate Strategy[4][12][13] - The report tracks the performance of two dividend portfolios and two electronic portfolios, highlighting their significant excess returns relative to their respective benchmarks since the beginning of the year[4][13][20] - The Dividend Series includes the "Central State-owned Enterprises High Dividend 30 Portfolio" and the "Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio," while the Industry Enhancement Series focuses on the electronics sector, including the "Electronic Balanced Configuration Enhancement Portfolio" and the "Electronic Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio"[13][14][20] - The "Electronic Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio" outperformed the electronics industry index by approximately 0.52% on a weekly basis, and since the beginning of 2025, the "Electronic Balanced Configuration Enhancement Portfolio" and the "Electronic Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio" have exceeded the electronics industry index by approximately 3.97% and 5.78%, respectively[5][23][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12]. Core Insights - Since Q2, the industry has experienced significant declines in both volume and price, with most cities' housing prices falling below last September's levels. The month-on-month decline is approaching policy thresholds, posing new challenges to the goal of stabilizing prices. Expectations for policy easing are strengthening, and the upcoming major meetings may present a buying window for the sector. Although conventional policy measures have limited effectiveness, there remains substantial room for extraordinary policy actions within the current framework. For transactions, policy expectations are deemed more critical than actual policy implementations. Q3 is identified as a trading window, although the urgency for easing may limit transaction levels in July compared to September, when macroeconomic and industrial data pressures are expected to increase, making stock price fluctuations a better buying opportunity [2][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 6.07% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 5.26%, ranking 1st out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 1.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.87%, ranking 25th out of 32 [6][15]. Policy Developments - Wuhan is intensifying its policy measures, Guangdong has clarified a negative list to strictly control illegal registrations, and Beijing is improving its housing fund policies. Wuhan's housing bureau plans to enhance its policy toolbox, focusing on the de-stocking of commercial properties, subsidies for specific groups, and increasing the supply of high-quality housing. Guangdong aims to enforce strict controls on illegal housing registrations. Beijing is optimizing housing supply by further leveraging housing provident funds to support down payments and loans [7]. Sales Data - New and second-hand housing transactions in sample cities continue to decline year-on-year. The new housing transaction area in 37 cities has decreased by 17.1% year-on-year over the past four weeks, while second-hand housing transactions in 19 cities have dropped by 6.3% year-on-year. As of July 11, new housing transactions in 37 cities fell by 19.0% year-on-year, and second-hand transactions dropped by 11.5% [8][19]. Trading Opportunities - Q3 is highlighted as a crucial trading window. The report suggests focusing on high-quality real estate companies with low inventory pressure and strong product capabilities, such as Binhai Group. It also recommends considering companies with improving fundamentals and those undergoing debt restructuring. In the context of low interest rates and asset shortages, leading firms in commercial real estate, property management, and brokerage with stable cash flows and potential high dividends are seen as long-term investment opportunities [5][9].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 银行新高后，如何看待煤炭红利相对性价比？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 考虑到险资增量资金仍在持续流入股票市场，为红利资产提供上涨动能，随着银行板块新高后， 如何看待煤炭红利的相对性价比？通过测算发现，基于最新 10Y 国债收益率以及农业银行/中 国移动/长江电力 2025E 股息率最新预测，中国神华当前位置股息率极限交易下或仍有明显上 行空间。因此我们认为随着银行板块新高后，结合近期煤炭基本面边际向好，煤炭红利相对性 价比突出，建议重视季度级别煤炭基本面与资金面共振的行情。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 银行新 ...