报告要点 [Table_Summary] 统计局公布 2025 全年经济数据，12 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 11.4%，降幅环比扩大 1.7pct， 广义基建投资单月下滑 9.5%，降幅环比扩大 1.2pct，1-12 月，狭义基建投资下滑 2.2%，降幅 环比扩大 1.1pct，广义基建投资增长 0.6%，增速环比减少 1.2pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 基建投资加速下滑，交通投资环比恶化 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 基建投资加速下滑，交通投资环比恶化 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-01-27 行业研 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [12]. Core Insights - The company specializes in the design and manufacturing of large industrial modules, primarily applied in the chemical industry, and has extended its services to oil and gas, mining, water treatment, and nuclear power engineering [4][7]. - The company has secured a significant order for the construction and installation of modular components for the Ningde Phase II project, marking its first collaboration with China General Nuclear Power Group [9]. - The nuclear power sector is expected to experience accelerated growth, with the company poised to benefit from its technological capabilities and shareholder background [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2006, has evolved from manufacturing cold boxes and small modules to providing a full range of engineering services, including design, procurement, modularization, and construction [22][30]. - The company has a stable shareholder structure, with significant ownership by China Nuclear Industry Second Construction Company, which may contribute to more nuclear orders [31]. Business Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 3.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.39%, with a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 38.73% [33][34]. - The company has signed multiple large contracts since 2022, with a total expected value exceeding 4 billion yuan [37][38]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established long-term partnerships with major international clients, including BASF and Honeywell, which enhances its market reputation and client retention [27]. - The modular construction approach offers significant advantages over traditional methods, including reduced construction time and costs, improved quality, and lower safety risks [53][56]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its production capacity through a new facility in Nantong, which is expected to enhance its ability to meet growing demand in the oil and gas and nuclear sectors [10]. - The nuclear power sector is projected to grow significantly, with an average utilization of 7,683 hours for nuclear units in 2024, indicating strong policy support for nuclear energy development [8][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to systematically construct an analytical framework for the issuance and pricing of ultra - long bonds, and comprehensively analyzes the historical evolution and theoretical framework of overseas ultra - long bonds. It first reviews the history and motives of the US, Japan, and Germany in issuing ultra - long bonds, then analyzes the supply and demand sides, introduces the Bernanke three - factor pricing model to attribute the yield fluctuations of ultra - long bonds, and finally summarizes historical experience through the review of recent yield changes [4][7][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government's Motivation for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds - **Origin of Ultra - long Bonds**: In 1953, the US Treasury issued the first ultra - long bond to reduce the cost of frequent short - term bond issuance; in 1986, Germany issued its first ultra - long bond to extend debt duration and reduce refinancing risk; in 1999, Japan included 30 - year treasury bonds in its issuance system to diversify the bond market's maturity structure [21]. - **Motives for Issuing Ultra - long Bonds**: Overseas countries issue ultra - long bonds mainly to raise funds for structural fiscal expansion, optimize the debt structure, and meet the market demand for long - term safe assets. For example, after 2008, the US increased 30 - year bond issuance with the expansion of fiscal deficits, and Japan used ultra - long bonds to support the economy in a deflationary environment [24]. 3.2 Historical Review of Ultra - long Bond Development - **US**: The development of US ultra - long bonds follows the logic of "crisis - driven + policy linkage". During economic crises, the government increases issuance to supplement fiscal funds, and the Fed lowers interest rates and buys bonds to support the market. Yield trends are closely related to issuance scale [30]. - **Japan**: The development of Japanese ultra - long bonds is a win - win for finance and currency. It helps the government finance and reduces long - term costs, and is also a tool for the central bank to control the yield curve. Issuance scale increases during crises with central bank easing [34]. - **Germany**: German ultra - long bonds show a dynamic evolution of "demand - anchored, cycle - adapted, and function - expanded". Initially for debt maturity structure optimization, they later meet long - term expenditure needs and expand functions such as being an interest - rate benchmark and a safe - haven asset [37]. 3.3 Ultra - long Bond Pricing: Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Taking the US as an example, Congress confirms the fiscal budget and debt ceiling in advance, and the Treasury formulates a specific issuance plan. The issuance form includes new issuance and additional issuance. The issuance mechanism in the US, Germany, and Japan varies. The US uses a "single - price (Dutch)" auction, while Germany and Japan use a "multiple - price" auction. The proportion of long - term bond issuance is mainly determined by financing costs, term premiums, and debt management strategies [41][49][50]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for ultra - long bonds comes from three aspects. Pension funds and insurance companies have rigid asset - liability management needs; hedge funds, banks, and asset management institutions have trading and arbitrage needs; central banks buy and sell ultra - long bonds for unconventional monetary policies and financial stability. Currently, the demand for US ultra - long bonds is more diversified, with investment funds becoming the largest demanders, and the proportion of primary dealers' allocation decreasing [54][61]. 3.4 Ultra - long Bond Pricing - **Bernanke Three - factor Model**: The long - term interest rate is decomposed into inflation expectations, the expected path of short - term real interest rates, and term premiums [70]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Long - term inflation expectations fluctuate around the 2% inflation target and are affected by economic growth. When the economy grows strongly, inflation expectations rise [74][76]. - **Expected Real Short - term Interest Rates**: The short - term real interest rate is mainly determined by the benchmark interest rate. The Fed's benchmark interest rate decision considers inflation and the employment market [79]. - **Term Premiums**: In recent years, the impact of term premiums on long - term bond yields has increased. It includes factors such as liquidity premiums, credit risk premiums, growth premiums, and inflation volatility premiums. Central bank quantitative easing policies can suppress term premiums, and credit risk premiums were significant during the European debt crisis, while fiscal expansion can increase growth risk premiums [81][85][87]. 3.5 Recent Trends and Future Forecasts - **Current Trends**: In the context of the global "big fiscal" era, concerns about the debt sustainability of developed economies have led to a re - evaluation of term premiums, causing the yields of US, Japanese, and German ultra - long bonds to rise. For the US, expansionary fiscal policies and a weakened US dollar have increased term premiums; for Japan, the central bank's policy adjustment and fiscal deterioration have led to a rise in yields; for Germany, fiscal expansion has pushed up yields [91][93][95]. - **Future Forecasts**: Unless developed economies abandon the "debt - driven" development model and improve long - term productivity, overseas ultra - long bond yields may continue to rise. It is expected that by the end of 2026, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds may reach around 4.6% and 5.1% respectively [97].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 关注建材涨价品种，双碳政策迎来新机遇 ——建材周专题 2026W4 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从涨价角度如何看建材？ 基本面：水泥出货季节性回落，玻璃库存环比下降 展望 2026 年：把握存量链、非洲链、AI 链三条主线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关注建材涨价品种，双碳政策迎来新机遇 2] ——建材周专题 2026W4 [Table_Summary2] 从涨价角度如何看建材？ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2025 年下半年以来部分周期品价格修复，虽相较于部分化工等周期品，建材地产敞口更大， 但盈利同样具备修复机会：一是供需改善（电子布供给受限，防水供 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨燕京啤酒（000729.SZ） 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title] 燕京啤酒跟踪点评：重看改革路，书写新篇章 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历经内部改革，燕京啤酒迎来新生。作为老牌北京啤酒企业，燕京啤酒曾因淘汰过剩产能及高 端化转型速度落后于其他公司，产品销量持续下滑，2021 年公司归母净利率仅 1.9%，与行业 有较大差距。2021 年，燕京啤酒在耿董事长的带领下正式开启了蜕变之旅，几年间实现了收 入、利润快速增长，通过 U8 大单品战略、内部改革提效，公司实现了收入、利润快速增长， 盈利能力实现质的跨越。 分析师及联系人 %% %% research.95579.com 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-01-27 公司研究丨点评报告 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 燕京啤酒（000729.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Titl ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking sector is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The banking sector continues to adjust, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, primarily due to significant net outflows from broad-based ETF index funds [2][6] - Despite the short-term pressures, the fundamental outlook for quality bank stocks is stable, and their valuations are considered oversold, indicating a potential buying opportunity [6][20] - Recommended banks include quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong regions, such as Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index fell by 2.7%, with excess returns of -2.0% and -2.3% compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices respectively [6][20] - Significant net outflows from the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETFs amounted to 238 billion and 36.1 billion respectively, indicating a worsening trend in fund outflows [6][20] Individual Bank Performance - Some smaller banks, like Qingdao Bank, showed positive performance due to favorable fundamental expectations, while larger state-owned banks lagged [2][6] - Eight banks reported Q4 earnings, with most showing revenue growth exceeding expectations, driven by stabilized net interest margins and increased interest income [8] Market Trends - There is a growing interest in the recovery potential of oversold bank stocks, as evidenced by a slight net inflow into bank-related index funds after a period of outflows [26] - The average turnover rate for bank stocks has increased, but the transaction volume share for various bank types, excluding joint-stock banks, has decreased [45][49] Convertible Bonds - The space for strong redemption of convertible bonds in the banking sector has expanded, with current stock prices approaching redemption thresholds [43] - Notable banks for potential convertible bond trading opportunities include Changshu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which have stable performance expectations [43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown weak overall performance this week, but some companies have disclosed high profit growth forecasts for 2025. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to promote the return to fundamentals in the public offering securities investment fund industry, which is expected to drive long-term stable development [2][4] - The market trading volume has decreased, yet remains at historically high levels. The report suggests monitoring the sector's future performance [4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports have confirmed the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs. The certainty of ROE improvement has increased, and valuations are expected to accelerate recovery [4] - The report highlights the increasing cost-effectiveness of overall allocations and ongoing revaluation in the sector [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.5% this week, with an underperformance of 0.8% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has decreased by 1.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.1% [5] Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 27,988.78 billion yuan, down 19.23% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.68%, down 68.47 basis points [5] - The leverage capital scale has rebounded, with a margin balance of 2.72 trillion yuan, up 0.23% [5] Insurance Sector Insights - The cumulative insurance premium income for November 2025 reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [23] - Life insurance income was 41,472 billion yuan, up 9.06% year-on-year, while property insurance income was 16,157 billion yuan, up 3.88% [24] Company Recommendations - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, due to their strong business models and market positions [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 如何看待年初以来煤炭板块内部行情分化？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 为何年初至今煤炭板块内部资金从"红利"向"弹性成长"轮动？我们认为，这主要和行业景 气有望筑底回暖、风险偏好提升、资金结构变化有关。考虑到 2026 年煤炭需求改善可期、反 内卷大背景下供给受限，供需改善下煤价中枢仍有望提升。因此一旦后续供给政策明朗化或需 求超预期，行情驱动将从"预期博弈"转向"基本面兑现"，弹性煤炭公司或因低估值高赔率获 得较优相对收益。与此同时，依旧需要重视红利投资价值，尤其是红利标的中煤能源 H+A、中 国神华 H+A、陕西煤业有望因稳步改善的绝对股息率的投资性价比而获得增配。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT91 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - December orders for sports footwear and apparel showed a month-on-month decline, indicating that the overall industry has not yet reached an inflection point. Retail performance in the US and UK remains resilient, while demand in other regions is stagnant. The decline in the US consumer confidence index has not yet impacted brand and upstream performance, primarily due to growth being driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][4][21] - Vietnam's footwear and apparel exports improved significantly in December, while China continues to face pressure. The upstream manufacturing sector is expected to have stronger earnings certainty in the first half of 2026, with a clear direction for recovery in the downstream sports supply chain. Brand apparel revenues are expected to fluctuate in Q4 2025, with profitability anticipated to recover in 2026 [2][5][29] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Performance - In December, the revenue performance of footwear manufacturers showed a year-on-year decline, with specific companies reporting: - Yuanyuan Group: -3.7% YoY, -1.3 percentage points MoM - Fengtai: -0.6% YoY, +11.2 percentage points MoM - Zhijiang International: -2.8% YoY, -5.9% MoM - Yuchi-KY: -2.2% YoY, -8.8% MoM - For apparel manufacturers: - Ruhong: -3.6% YoY, -5.1% MoM - Juyang Industrial: -9.2% YoY, -9.7% MoM - Guangyue: +9.7% YoY, -22.1% MoM [4][16][29] Demand Analysis - Retail performance in December showed resilience in the US and UK, while other regions experienced stagnation. The US consumer confidence index continues to decline, which has not yet reflected in brand and upstream performance. The growth is mainly driven by high-end consumption, with mass apparel consumption still expected to recover [2][21][26] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on upstream manufacturing, as the performance in the first half of 2026 is expected to be more certain. The recovery direction of the sports supply chain is clear. Key recommended stocks include: - New Australia Holdings, Crystal International, Shenzhou International, and Yuanyuan Group - Attention should also be given to high-elasticity stocks like Nobon and Jeya, as well as undervalued stocks with strong safety margins like Taihua New Materials and Lutai A [5][29][30]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨安踏体育（02020.HK） [Table_Title] 零售持续承压，后续指引谨慎 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 安踏体育发布 2025Q4 零售数据，安踏品牌零售流水同比低单下滑，FILA 品牌零售流水同比中 单增长，其他品牌零售流水同比增长 35%-40%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 于旭辉 柯睿 陈信志 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 安踏体育（02020.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 零售持续承压，后续指引谨慎 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 安踏体育发布 2025Q4 零售数据，安踏品牌零售流水同比低单下滑，FILA 品牌零售流水同比 中单增长，其他品牌零售流水同比增长 35%-40%。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-01-26 港股研究丨公司点评 ...