丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 通信行业 2025 年中报综述：AI 算力热潮奔涌， 产业动能迸发 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025H1 通信行业高景气延续，算力产业链持续驱动板块成长。运营商 CapEx 向智算侧倾斜， 高速光模块渗透提速，龙头盈利与份额双升；ICT 设备受益自主可控与 AI 大模型落地保持高 增；IDC 资产端扩张周期开启；物联网与北斗民用化加速放量。AI 与算力热潮深化，板块配置 价值凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SAC：S0490523030001 SAC：S0490524100002 SAC：S0490525040002 SFC：BUX641 于海宁 黄天佑 祖圣腾 温筱婷 刘泽龙 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 通信行业 2025 2] 年中报综述：AI 算力热潮奔涌， 产业动能迸发 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 19.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, down 35.4% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.9% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the revenue breakdown by business segments shows raw materials at 630 million yuan (down 0.6%), medical terminals at 670 million yuan (down 9.4%), skin science at 910 million yuan (down 34.0%), and nutrition science at 40 million yuan (up 32.4%). The overseas growth in raw materials was nearly 10% in Europe, Southeast Asia, and South Korea, with Japan exceeding 20% [9]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.8%, a decline of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a 3.5 percentage point drop in gross margin to 71%. The second quarter showed improvement with net profit margins of 9.5% in Q1 and 10.1% in Q2, indicating a recovery trend [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company is currently in a business adjustment phase, with Q2 profit margins showing initial positive results. The expectation is for the benefits of focusing on brand effectiveness to gradually manifest across various business segments. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 0.99, 1.36, and 1.60 yuan per share, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 670 million yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year. The adjusted profit reached 672 million yuan, with a growth of 32% and an adjusted profit margin of 26% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the revenue from different product categories was as follows: makeup 1.42 billion yuan, skincare 1.09 billion yuan, fragrance 11 million yuan, and training schools 67 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +31%, +33%, no growth for fragrance, and -6% for training schools. Excluding training schools, total product sales grew by 32.7% [5]. Product Performance - Within the makeup category, the base makeup segment performed strongly, with retail sales of caviar cushion and light sensation powder exceeding 200 million yuan each. The skincare segment saw classic products like caviar masks achieving retail sales of over 600 million yuan (up 33% year-on-year) and black cream exceeding 200 million yuan. New high-end products are being introduced steadily [5]. Channel Performance - Online sales continued to grow significantly, with revenues of 1.3 billion yuan (up 39% year-on-year), while offline sales reached 1.22 billion yuan (up 27% year-on-year). The repurchase rates improved by 2.6 percentage points for online and 1.6 percentage points for offline channels [5]. Profitability - The net profit margin for H1 2025 reached 26%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. This was attributed to a 0.7 percentage point decline in gross margin, primarily due to lower margins in makeup and training schools, and a significant optimization in expense ratios [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trend in the short to medium term, driven by a robust pipeline of mid-tier products, high elasticity in e-commerce channels, and continuous improvement in offline store efficiency. The long-term potential includes category expansion, collaboration with more high-end brands, and international market entry [5]. The projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.25 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35.9, 28.4, and 23.3 times [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 29.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 800 million yuan [2][4]. - In the second quarter alone, revenue was 12.47 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, with a net loss of 940 million yuan; however, after considering asset disposal gains from store closures, the net loss was reduced to 390 million yuan, a year-on-year improvement of 70 million yuan [2][4]. - The retail segment's gross margin showed improvement, with a gross margin of 19.8% in the second quarter, remaining stable year-on-year, driven by a shift towards self-operated sales in the bakery segment and a reduction in high-margin service business revenue [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 29.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 21% year-on-year, and a net loss of 800 million yuan [2][4]. - The second quarter revenue was 12.47 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, with a net loss of 940 million yuan; however, the loss was reduced to 390 million yuan after accounting for asset disposal gains [2][4]. Supply Chain and Margin Improvement - The company closed 223 stores in the first half of 2025, resulting in a total of 552 stores, which contributed to the revenue decline [9]. - The gross margin for the retail segment improved by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of self-operated sales in the bakery segment and a focus on quality retail and supply chain reform [9]. Strategic Initiatives - The company launched high-quality private label products, including fresh milk at a competitive price, which achieved sales of over 1 million yuan within four days of launch [9]. - The company is actively restructuring its brand marketing system to enhance consumer reach and product differentiation [9]. Future Outlook - The company plans to raise up to 4 billion yuan through a private placement to support store renovations, logistics upgrades, and working capital [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.08 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.12 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a potential turnaround [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company is currently in an expansion phase focusing on channel and regional development, with product innovation enhancing its brand momentum. The second half of the year is expected to show the benefits of domestic brand upgrades, while overseas growth is anticipated through e-commerce and offline expansion. The NAS products continue to lead consumer education, and the iteration of charging products is accelerating, benefiting from iPhone upgrades and compliance certifications for mobile power supplies. Long-term, the company aims to strengthen the Ugreen brand through product quality and user insights, which will further expand its product categories [2][10]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.03 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 124 million yuan, up 19% year-on-year [4]. - For H1 2025, the main growth categories were charging and storage products, with revenues of 1.43 billion yuan and 1.03 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 44% and 29%. The overseas business grew by 51% compared to the domestic growth of 27% [10]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 decreased by 1.4 percentage points, primarily due to an increase in the offline sales proportion [10]. Product Innovation and Market Strategy - The company has accelerated product innovation and channel expansion, launching new products such as the NAS model DH4300Plus and upgraded charging products, including the MagFlow magnetic wireless charger. The new AI headphones feature adaptive noise cancellation and AI voice assistant capabilities [10]. - The company is enhancing its market coverage through deep penetration in online platforms and localizing its offline channels, while also focusing on brand-building activities to improve its high-end and youthful brand image [10]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see the effects of brand upgrade investments in the second half of the year, with continued strong growth in overseas markets. The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 680 million yuan, 950 million yuan, and 1.16 billion yuan respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural products industry [13]. Core Insights - The swine breeding industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable phase, with medium to long-term capacity control becoming the new norm, positively impacting the industry. Profits for quality enterprises are expected to significantly increase, with a favorable long-term outlook for the sector [4][21]. - Key recommendations include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture in the swine breeding sector. In the pet food segment, the report highlights the rapid growth of domestic brands such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. The feed industry is also experiencing a recovery, with Haida Group's domestic market share increasing and overseas business growing rapidly [4][21]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - In the first half of 2025, the revenue of listed companies in the swine breeding sector increased by 19% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit growth of 512%. The average swine price decreased by 4% year-on-year, but profits surged due to improved breeding costs. The industry's free cash flow improved significantly, totaling approximately 18.3 billion yuan, compared to a negative 3.7 billion yuan in the same period last year [8][23]. - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising was about 73 yuan per head, a significant improvement from a loss of 25 yuan per head in the previous year [23]. Feed Industry - The feed sector saw a revenue increase of 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a 70.9% increase in non-recurring net profit. The total feed production reached 159 million tons, up 8% year-on-year. Haida Group's feed sales volume grew by 26% year-on-year, and the company is expected to see further growth in shrimp and crab feed in the third quarter [9][22]. Pet Food - The pet food sector's revenue grew by 22.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with a 19.2% increase in non-recurring net profit. Domestic sales for Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. are expected to grow by over 40% in Q2. However, exports of pet snacks faced a decline due to tariffs, with a 52% drop in exports to the U.S. [10][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the systematic increase in coal costs over the past decade has solidified the safety margin for coal prices, with current cash cost support for port thermal coal prices at approximately 550 RMB/ton [3][9]. - It highlights that the coal price bottom is unlikely to return to the low levels seen in 2015, reinforcing the profitability and dividend safety margins for coal companies [3][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report introduces the importance of cost research in establishing the safety margin for coal prices, indicating that a high cost-supported price bottom can enhance dividend value [6][20]. Overall Cost Trends - Over the past decade, coal company costs have increased by nearly 50%, with a CAGR of approximately 4% [6][24]. - The weighted average sales cost for coal in 2024 is projected to be 300 RMB/ton, down 2% year-on-year, while the complete cost is expected to be 380 RMB/ton, down 3% year-on-year [6][24]. Cost Structure - The cost structure for coal companies in 2024 is composed of labor costs (32%), other expenses (30%), raw materials (14%), depreciation (12%), safety costs (9%), and manufacturing costs (3%) [7][41]. - Labor costs, depreciation, and safety expenses have seen the most significant increases over the past decade, with labor costs rising by 28 RMB/ton [7][41]. Cost Curve Analysis - The cash cost curve for port thermal coal has shifted, with the 90th percentile cash cost now supporting prices around 550 RMB/ton [8][9]. - The complete cost curve for thermal coal has also increased, with the 90th percentile complete cost now between 370-423 RMB/ton [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the systematic increase in costs has solidified the safety margin for coal prices, recommending several companies for investment based on their resilience and growth potential [9][11]. - Recommended companies include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, and China Shenhua Energy [9].

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold exhibits three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial asset, with prices positively correlated to inflation and negatively correlated to the US dollar and real interest rates[3] - Since 2022, the negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened due to central banks increasing gold reserves, reflecting declining trust in the US dollar[3] - The supply of gold is relatively stable due to resource scarcity and long exploration and extraction cycles, while demand has shifted from investment to strategic allocation, changing the pricing anchor from "real interest rates" to "central bank purchases"[7] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a loss of confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, particularly after the freezing of Russian assets due to the Ukraine conflict[8] - As of 2024, the US federal government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 124.3%, indicating a growing risk to the dollar's credibility and prompting countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold[8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, suggesting a strong and growing demand for gold[10] Group 3: Future Gold Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks and political polarization are expected to continue, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and increasing central bank demand for gold[9] - The military expenditure of major countries is at historical lows as a percentage of GDP, providing a safety net against potential declines in gold prices[9] - The average annual net gold purchases by central banks from 2022 to 2024 reached 1,059 tons, accounting for 23% of global gold demand, indicating a structural shift in demand dynamics[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in the domestic laser galvanometer control system market, with a diverse range of applications including marking, cutting, and welding, and has established strong partnerships with over a thousand downstream customers [2][18]. - The company's performance significantly improved in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit reaching 133 million yuan and 28 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21.56% and 64.58% [6][41]. - The company is expanding its product offerings by acquiring Samit to enter the fast-response mirror market and is also focusing on 3D printing to enhance long-term growth potential [6][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the laser processing control system field and maintains a market share leadership in the laser galvanometer control system segment, with approximately 70% of its revenue coming from this core business [6][18]. - The company has a comprehensive product system that includes laser processing control systems, system integration hardware, and precision laser processing equipment, which are essential for various industrial applications [21][22]. Market Dynamics - The demand for laser equipment is growing rapidly due to the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, with laser processing technology becoming a key choice for industrial applications due to its high precision and low energy consumption [7][49]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-precision and flexible processing solutions, particularly in the 3C application sector and emerging fields such as new energy materials and semiconductor manufacturing [7][54]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.81% from 2018 to 2021, with revenue increasing from 70 million yuan to 203 million yuan [41]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 59.3% and a net profit margin of 20.7%, indicating a recovery in profitability [43][41]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its business both horizontally and vertically, enhancing its competitive edge in high-end optical control through strategic acquisitions and product development [8][37]. - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to motivate key personnel and support sustainable growth [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong performance, with basic metals experiencing a net profit growth of 27% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, driven by a rebound in manufacturing and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][19] - Gold maintains a bullish market trend, with significant profit elasticity due to rising production capacity and price increases [5][19] - Energy metals show mixed performance, with lithium prices under pressure while cobalt prices improve, leading to better profitability for cobalt-related companies [6][19] - Rare earth materials are recovering as export controls enhance their strategic value, with prices stabilizing after previous declines [7][19] - Titanium materials are gradually improving in profitability, awaiting a recovery in high-end demand [8][19] Summary by Sections Basic Metals - In the first half of 2025, the basic metals sector achieved a net profit of 703.79 billion yuan, a 26.67% increase year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 4.24% [21][30] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 376.44 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to easing tariff pressures and strong industrial performance [4][37] Gold - The gold sector experienced a revenue increase of 25.94% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit soaring by 58.95% [14][19] - In Q2 2025, gold prices reached new highs, driven by trade conflicts and recession expectations, leading to significant profit elasticity for gold mining companies [5][19] Energy Metals - The energy metals sector faced a decline in lithium prices, with a year-on-year revenue decrease of 4.76% in the first half of 2025, while cobalt prices improved significantly [6][19] - Cobalt prices are recovering due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented export bans [6][19] Rare Earth Materials - The rare earth sector saw a revenue increase of 12.74% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit growth of 260.72% [19][21] - Export controls and new regulations are expected to enhance the strategic value of rare earth materials, supporting price recovery [7][19] Titanium Materials - The titanium sector reported a slight revenue decrease of 0.90% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with net profit down by 4.04% [19][21] - There is an expectation of improved profitability as high-end demand begins to recover [8][19]