Core Insights - The report discusses the increasing attention on the "negative duration" strategy in the bond market, particularly in the context of a bearish market trend observed in the second half of the year, where most pure bond funds experienced significant net value declines, while some managed to rise against the trend [5][6][19]. - The report highlights that executing a negative duration strategy can yield positive returns even during periods of rising bond yields, contrasting with traditional long-duration strategies that are prone to losses in a declining market [6][19]. Market Trends - The bond market has shown a clear bearish trend in the second half of the year, characterized by multiple consecutive declines, with the 30-year active treasury futures price dropping from 121 to 114, reflecting a yield increase of nearly 40 basis points [5][13]. - The report notes that the market downturn is not merely a fluctuation but exhibits distinct characteristics of a bear market, influenced by factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and "anti-involution" policies [5][16]. Strategy Implementation - The negative duration strategy is being executed by brokerage proprietary trading desks, which establish short positions in treasury futures while simultaneously borrowing and selling long-term treasury bonds to capitalize on the price declines during rising interest rates [6][19]. - The report indicates a notable increase in the borrowing balance of 30-year treasury bonds by brokerage firms since mid-November, reflecting the implementation of short-selling strategies [20][21]. Fund Performance - Some public funds have successfully utilized treasury futures to implement a temporary negative duration strategy, resulting in net value increases during a period of rising interest rates, while other similar funds saw significant declines [7][22]. - The report emphasizes that public funds are allowed to participate in treasury futures trading, albeit with restrictions on position sizes and trading volumes, which provides a regulatory framework for executing negative duration strategies [22]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus on negative duration strategies may increase in a low-interest-rate environment characterized by heightened market volatility, with expectations of wide fluctuations in long-term treasury yields, specifically forecasting the 10-year yield to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9%, and the 30-year yield between 2.2% and 2.4% [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [26] Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) introduced a one-time personal credit repair policy on December 22, aimed at providing credit repair opportunities for overdue record holders. The policy focuses on overdue amounts of 10,000 yuan or less, targeting small overdue amounts and honest repayment customers. It encourages current overdue customers to repay quickly and benefits those with historical overdue records who have settled their debts, facilitating future loan approvals [2][6][9] - The policy is applicable to overdue records from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, and requires borrowers to fully repay their debts by March 31, 2026, for the overdue records to be removed from the credit reporting system [6][9] - The policy is expected to improve banks' asset quality by accelerating repayments from overdue customers and may slightly increase retail loan issuance [9][10] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The PBOC's credit repair policy targets small overdue records in personal credit reports, specifically those not exceeding 10,000 yuan. It applies to various types of personal loans, including mortgages, credit cards, and consumer loans, and does not require borrowers to apply for the repair [7][8][9] - The policy aims to address the rising loan default pressures faced by residents due to macroeconomic factors, as existing credit rules retain overdue records for five years even after debts are settled [6][9] Impact on Individuals - For current overdue customers, the policy incentivizes prompt repayment. For those who have settled their debts but still have historical overdue records, the repair of credit records will help meet future loan demands, as banks consider credit history during risk assessments [9][10] Impact on Banks - If the policy effectively encourages overdue customers to repay, it could alleviate the pressure on retail asset quality, as overdue and non-performing loan ratios have been rising. For instance, as of Q3 2025, overdue and non-performing amounts for China Merchants Bank accounted for 69.7% and 56.4% of total retail loans, respectively [10][16] - While some customers may find it easier to obtain new loans post-repair, the overall increase in loan issuance is expected to be limited due to tightened risk controls in the banking sector [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The average transaction price for Guangdong Province in 2026 is projected to be 372.14 RMB/MWh, reaching the lower limit of the medium to long-term trading price, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 19.72 RMB/MWh. If the impact of the coal power capacity price increase in 2026 is considered, the comprehensive average electricity price will remain roughly the same as in 2025 [2][13]. - The total transaction volume for Guangdong Province in 2026 is expected to reach 359.437 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.38% [6][13]. - The Southern Energy Regulatory Bureau has emphasized the prohibition of signing "yin-yang contracts" and will strictly investigate violations in medium to long-term electricity trading. This indicates a focus on maintaining market order and rational trading [2][13]. - The report suggests that if electricity prices experience irrational declines, a new round of mechanism reforms may be initiated. The publication of the long-term electricity price in Guangdong marks the beginning of a new phase in the national electricity price negotiations [13]. Summary by Sections Section: Price Trends - The long-term electricity price has reached its lower limit, indicating potential volatility in prices if not constrained. The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure compliance and market stability [2][13]. - The coal power capacity price is set to increase from 100 RMB/year·kW to 165 RMB/year·kW in 2026, which, combined with a decrease in coal power utilization hours, will affect the average price for coal power units, keeping it stable compared to 2025 [2][13]. Section: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship is becoming more relaxed, with an increase in new coal power installations, which may exert downward pressure on electricity prices. The dual-track pricing system of medium to long-term and spot markets is also contributing to this dynamic [13]. - The report recommends focusing on quality coal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and others, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power, and new energy firms like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power [13].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid-single to double digits in volume growth, supported by increased orders from existing customers and new customer acquisitions. The expansion in Indonesia and Bangladesh is anticipated to contribute to stable revenue growth. Profitability is expected to improve due to enhanced efficiency in new factories, with a long-term potential for net profit margin enhancement through product mix improvement and cost optimization. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $160 million, $170 million, and $190 million, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times. Given the high visibility of orders, profit improvement potential, stable customer mix, and high dividend yield, the current valuation is considered low, with a projected dividend yield of 6.9% in 2025 at a 75% payout ratio [3][10]. Company Overview - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer, providing ODM services primarily for top global brands such as Nike, Prada, and Balenciaga. It has undergone a strategic shift towards high-end product manufacturing and optimized production capacity in Southeast Asia since 2019, resulting in significant improvements in profit margins and capital returns. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, positioning it within the second tier of domestic footwear manufacturers while maintaining a favorable profit margin [6][19]. Industry Analysis - The demand side of the industry is witnessing structural opportunities, with the U.S. apparel sector nearing the end of inventory destocking. Most brands in the sports segment have healthy inventory levels, although the retail recovery trend remains unclear. The high-end segment is expected to see a performance rebound by Q3 2025, with the personal luxury goods market anticipated to return to moderate growth next year, benefiting related suppliers [6][47]. Company Quality - The company focuses on high-end manufacturing, establishing a differentiated competitive advantage while achieving superior pricing (over 200 yuan) and profitability (gross margin of 20%-25%). High R&D spending and competitive salary levels support its leading design and development capabilities, with a significant increase in high-end customer numbers. The sports segment, which is currently thriving, is expected to provide strong order certainty and profitability. The company has diversified its customer base, with Nike orders accounting for nearly 40% of total orders, ensuring stable growth [9][10][19]. Production Efficiency - The company has established a manufacturing system centered in China, with major production bases in Southeast Asia. By 2024, the production capacity distribution is expected to be 24% in China, 52% in Vietnam, and 20% in other Asian regions. The company boasts superior labor productivity, with per capita output second only to a major competitor, and is continuously enhancing automation to improve efficiency [9][10][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is currently experiencing short-term operational pressure, and recovery is expected to take time [6]. - Retail sales have shown a decline, with direct store sales area decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year as of November 30, 2025 [2][6]. - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores, which is expected to stabilize the number of stores in the future [8]. - Short-term pressures remain, but there is a long-term optimistic outlook due to Nike's supportive policies and market management improvements [8]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - Retail sales continue to face pressure, with deeper discounting expected. The retail performance is anticipated to be better than wholesale [8]. - The company is expected to maintain inventory reduction efforts, but retail and discount pressures are likely to persist [8]. Store Network - The decline in store sales area has narrowed, and there is hope for stabilization in the future as the company optimizes its store network [8]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 25.21 billion, 25.97 billion, and 26.75 billion yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, with a year-on-year change of -7%, 3%, and 3% respectively [10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.20, 0.22, and 0.24 yuan for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [12] Core Insights - The home textile industry has maintained stable growth, with new opportunities arising from the emergence of big-ticket items. Mercury Home Textiles, a leading player in the industry for nearly 40 years, has built differentiated competitive advantages through continuous product upgrades, leading e-commerce channel layouts, and a focus on big-ticket items [4][8] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, with a notable increase in gross margin from 35.3% in 2020 to 44.2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][22] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mercury Home Textiles, originally established as "Longgang Jiangnan Garment Factory" in 1987, has a clear growth path, moving to Shanghai in 2000 and launching its sub-brand, Belis, in 2002. The company has focused on e-commerce since 2008 and has seen steady revenue growth [7][20] Industry Landscape - The home textile market has remained stable, with a size of approximately 300-350 billion yuan over the past five years. The market is fragmented, with the top three brands holding around 1% market share each, and Mercury Home Textiles leading the industry [8][46] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has upgraded its product structure, focusing on high-value items. The sales of comforters have become a significant part of its revenue, with the company ranking first in global comforter sales in 2023-2024. The e-commerce channel has become a major growth engine, with over 50% of revenue coming from online sales [9][32] Marketing Strategy - Mercury Home Textiles has expanded its brand influence through various marketing strategies, including celebrity endorsements and collaborations with KOLs on platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin. This multi-faceted approach aims to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [10][57]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 加强资产负债匹配，利好长期健康发展 ——保险基本面梳理 110 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前 A/H 股保险估值反映的仍是中长期"利差损"的担忧。在新的保险分析框架之下，结合近 两年政策、市场、监管及行业发展趋势，我们判断保险行业利差有望在中长期持续提升。结合 近期负债端强势增长以及"存款搬家"逻辑，利差企稳到扩张的过程有望加速，估值有望加速 修复。持续看好保险板块，个股推荐新华保险、中国平安、中国人寿、中国人保。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 加强资产负债匹配，利好长期健康发展 2] ——保险基本面梳理 110 [Table_Summary2] 新规发布的背景是什么：环境、政策、会计准则的变化 %% %% %% %% 内外的变化带来了资产负债管理的新要求。2025 年 12 月 19 日，金管 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - For FY2026Q2 (September 1, 2025 - November 31, 2025), the company reported revenue of $12.43 billion, slightly exceeding expectations (Bloomberg consensus of $12.24 billion), with a year-over-year growth of 1% in dollar terms [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 3 percentage points to 40.6%, primarily impacted by increased tariffs in North America and old inventory issues in Greater China [2][6] - Net profit fell by 32% year-over-year to $792 million, with a net profit margin decline of 3 percentage points to 6.4% [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - North America showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 9% year-over-year, while Greater China faced a significant decline of 16% [7] - Revenue by region: North America $5.63 billion, EMEA $3.39 billion, APLA $1.67 billion, Greater China $1.42 billion [7] - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue decreased by 9% to $4.6 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by 8% to $7.5 billion [7] Inventory Situation - As of FY2026Q2, total inventory was $7.73 billion, a decrease of 3% year-over-year [11] - Inventory levels in North America and EMEA are recovering, while Greater China shows significant inventory reduction [11] Performance Guidance - The company expects FY2026Q3 revenue to decline year-over-year, with moderate growth anticipated in North America [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with infrastructure investment becoming a drag on the economy, prompting the economic work conference to emphasize "investment stabilization" [2][9] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that "active fiscal policies" will drive investment stabilization, with a focus on structural opportunities in the construction sector, including western infrastructure, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure [2][9] Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2025, FAI experienced a comprehensive decline, with infrastructure investment significantly dropping, particularly in the third quarter, where narrow infrastructure investment turned negative, declining by 8.7% in October [23][28] - The report notes that the actual situation of infrastructure investment may have deteriorated earlier than expected in 2024, despite apparent growth in infrastructure investment [30][34] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in western infrastructure projects, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure driven by technological advancements [45][46] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend leading companies in western regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and exploring opportunities in Xinjiang and Tibet [9][10] Group 3: Overseas Engineering - The report indicates that overseas engineering demand remains strong, driven by favorable client structures and business models of central enterprises, as well as private enterprises expanding into international markets [10][11] - Key recommendations for overseas engineering include companies like China National Materials, Jianghe Group, and Jinggong Steel Structure, which are expected to perform well in terms of earnings and dividends [10][11] Group 4: New Infrastructure - The report identifies several sectors within new infrastructure that are expected to see growth, including clean rooms, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and low-altitude economy, driven by technological advancements and safety demands [10][11] - Specific companies recommended in these sectors include Yaxiang Integration for clean rooms and China Nuclear Engineering for nuclear power projects [10][11] Group 5: Traditional Demand - The report notes that traditional demand, particularly in real estate, remains under pressure, with new and second-hand housing demand still facing challenges [11] - It highlights the potential turning point for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which may benefit from improved cyclical sentiment and operational efficiency [11] Group 6: Reform and Restructuring - The report discusses the need for deep reforms in the construction sector to enhance global competitiveness, focusing on identifying quality assets and new business opportunities for central enterprises [12][12] - It also emphasizes the importance of market value management and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the construction industry [12][12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes in the building materials industry: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a significant shift in consumer demand expected as renovation needs rise to nearly 70% by 2030 [4][7][26] - The Africa chain highlights the undervalued potential of leading companies in the African market, benefiting from population growth and urbanization, with a projected threefold market expansion for cement [9][10] - The AI chain anticipates an upgrade in the special electronic cloth industry, driven by the transition from Low-Dk to higher-grade products, indicating substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to supply shortages [10][10] Group 2 - The stock chain indicates that the renovation demand is currently around 50% and is expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030, which will drive the industry back to historical demand levels [7][26][28] - The report notes that the supply of consumer building materials is expected to exit significantly, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 90% to 62% of their peak by 2024 [7][37] - The report identifies companies like Huaxin Cement and West Cement as key players in the African market, which is expected to see high demand due to ongoing urbanization and infrastructure development [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that the renovation market could reach 20 billion square meters annually, driven by a shorter renovation cycle and an increase in the aging housing stock [28][31] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to show revenue and profit resilience, with some companies already demonstrating growth despite industry downturns [8][41] - The report indicates that the waterproof and coating sectors are under significant pressure, with the waterproof materials market expected to see a notable decline in production by 2024 [45][58]