Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The report highlights that the company, as a benchmark in the internet brokerage sector, has significant competitive advantages in customer acquisition and cost control. The impact of public fund fee reductions is nearing completion, and the market share in securities business continues to rise, with commission rates bottoming out ahead of the industry. In the context of a market recovery, the long-term growth potential of its securities business is viewed positively [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 6.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.57 billion yuan, up 37.3%. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) improved by 1.17 percentage points to 6.7% [6][12] Business Segments - The main drivers of growth in the first half of 2025 were securities brokerage and margin financing. The company reported a total operating revenue (including investment income) of 8.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, and a net profit of 5.57 billion yuan, up 37.3%. The ROE was 6.7%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points year-on-year. Revenue from e-commerce, net interest income, net commission income, and investment income were 1.58 billion, 1.43 billion, 3.85 billion, and 1.40 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.6%, +39.4%, +60.6%, and -14.7% [12] Market Share and Commission Rates - The company's market share in securities brokerage continues to rise, with a trading volume of 1.603 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 74.0%, resulting in a market share of 8.35%, up 0.14 percentage points from the beginning of the year. The estimated net commission rate remained stable at 0.010% [12] Fund Distribution and Fee Impact - Fund distribution has shown signs of recovery, with the company's fund distribution scale reaching 3.838 trillion yuan and 6.753 trillion yuan for equity and non-monetary funds, respectively, with year-to-date increases of 0.4% and 10.5%. The estimated market shares were 4.6% and 3.3%, with slight changes from the beginning of the year [12] Proprietary Trading and Profitability - The company accelerated its balance sheet expansion in a challenging market, with trading financial assets reaching 107.16 billion yuan, a 45.7% increase from the beginning of the year. The static investment yield was estimated at 3.09%, down 1.24 percentage points year-on-year, indicating stable performance in proprietary trading [12] Cost Management - The company effectively managed sales and R&D costs, leading to a significant improvement in profitability. Sales, management, and R&D expenses were 140 million, 1.22 billion, and 500 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.2%, +5.8%, and -10.3% [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The market's trading activity continues to rise, with the non-bank sector leading gains. As the mid-year reports approach, high profit growth is expected to persist. The report suggests capitalizing on the beta market and sectors that are expected to perform well in the mid-year reports. The brokerage sector is experiencing high trading activity, with many firms reporting strong preliminary results. The insurance sector is also expected to see an increase in new business value driven by rising value rates. Overall, the current valuations imply a pessimistic long-term investment outlook, but the report views current valuations as safe, especially considering the improvement in concentration and liability costs [2][6][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 6.5% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.1%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 11.4%, with a 4.6% outperformance against the CSI 300 [7]. Insurance Sector - In June 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 373.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. The life insurance segment contributed 277.05 billion, up 5.38% year-on-year, while property insurance income was 96.45 billion, up 5.10% [23][24]. Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 2,101.89 billion, a week-on-week increase of 23.90%. The average turnover rate was 2.35%, up 40.18 basis points [39]. Investment Business - The equity market is showing signs of recovery, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the ChiNext index by 8.58% [43]. Credit Business - The margin trading balance increased to 2.06 trillion, a week-on-week rise of 2.09%. The stock pledge shares reached 303.9 billion, with a pledge market value of 2.90 trillion [46]. Asset Management - In July 2025, the issuance of collective asset management products fell to 5.164 billion shares, a decrease of 46.9% from the previous month. However, the new fund issuance increased to 113.65 billion shares, up 33.1% [52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Jinzu (600901.SH) is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - Jiangsu Jinzu is transforming towards retail and focusing on small and micro enterprises, leveraging the advantages of the vendor leasing model. The company benefits from equipment replacement and interest subsidy policies, leading to a significant acceleration in asset deployment. The cost of liabilities continues to improve, maintaining a high net interest margin, and the non-performing loan ratio is well-controlled, reflecting strong profitability and risk control capabilities. The company is expected to achieve a dividend yield of 5.12% in 2025E, making it an attractive investment [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Jiangsu Jinzu achieved operating revenue of 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.56 billion yuan, up 9.0%. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 6.3% [6][10]. Asset Deployment - The company maintained a steady pace of asset deployment, with new investments concentrated in modern services and transportation. As of the end of the first half of 2025, accounts receivable from financing leases reached 143.56 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3% from the beginning of the year and 3.8% from the end of the first quarter. The balance of accounts receivable from leasing in Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Anhui increased by 1.1, 0.6, and 0.4 percentage points, respectively [10][11]. Profitability and Risk Control - The net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 3.71%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year. The asset yield and liability cost rates were estimated at 6.1% and 2.2%, respectively. The company’s asset quality remained stable, with non-performing assets totaling 1.34 billion yuan and a non-performing loan ratio of 0.91%, unchanged from the beginning of the year [10][11]. Future Outlook - Jiangsu Jinzu is expected to achieve net profits of 3.26 billion yuan and 3.59 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 1.19 and 1.10 times. The company is well-positioned for stable market share expansion and profit growth during a strong regulatory cycle [2][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The demand in the IoT market is gradually recovering, and the company is accelerating the promotion of derivative products and solutions based on its module business. It is believed that the downstream prosperity of the IoT industry is continuously recovering in the short term, and as the company transitions from product-oriented to solution-oriented, the added value of its products is expected to continue to increase, benefiting in the long term [2][10] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.98%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.03%. In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.325 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.28%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 259 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.68% [4][10] Business Strategy - The company, as a global leader in IoT solutions, continues to focus on customer needs, expanding market coverage and actively exploring new growth points. It has established a "1+N" business matrix, with modules as the foundation, and diversified businesses such as antennas, ODM, intelligent solutions, and software service platforms working in synergy [10] - The company is deepening its layout in the automotive module and solution sectors, responding to the increasing demand for integrated cockpit SoC and connectivity in the automotive industry. It has introduced new products and solutions to support the intelligent upgrade of the automotive industry [10] Product Development - The company is focusing on the diversification of its module product line, leveraging technological innovation and global compliance to maintain a leading position in the integration of 5G and AI. Its intelligent module products are fully integrated with advanced AI models, enhancing user experience [10] - The antenna business is addressing customer pain points with customized solutions, achieving significant breakthroughs in various fields, including smart metering and public utilities [10] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 848 million yuan, 1.063 billion yuan, and 1.595 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 25%, and 50%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 27x, 21x, and 14x [10][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The first "2025 World Humanoid Robot Games" opened on August 14, showcasing cutting-edge achievements in intelligent decision-making and motion collaboration, with 280 teams from 16 countries participating [2][6] - The event featured 26 competitions over three days, demonstrating significant advancements in humanoid robot stability and control capabilities, with completion rates for races reaching 84.6% and 84.7% for 1500m and 400m events respectively [11] - The competition highlighted the progress in core technologies, including autonomous navigation and precision handling, indicating a rapid development in the humanoid robotics industry [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - The "2025 World Humanoid Robot Games" took place from August 15 to 17, featuring 487 matches across various categories, including competitive, performance, scenario, and peripheral events [6][11] Performance Highlights - On the first day, five gold medals were awarded across different events, with notable performances in athletics and martial arts, showcasing the capabilities of humanoid robots [11] - The competition demonstrated improvements in robot performance, with some robots achieving speeds surpassing that of average humans and executing complex maneuvers [11] Investment Recommendations - The event underscored the advancements in humanoid robots, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry. Key recommendations include focusing on hardware design innovations and supporting leading domestic robot enterprises [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal and fuel consumption industry [10]. Core Insights - Recent expectations of steel production restrictions have raised concerns about a potential decline in coking coal demand, which could suppress coking coal prices. However, historical data suggests that administrative production restrictions often lead to a rapid recovery in steel mill profits, reducing their willingness to pressure upstream material prices, resulting in a co-resonance price increase for both steel and coking coal. If steel production is reduced due to significant losses, both steel and coking coal prices tend to decline together [2][7]. - Looking ahead to 2025, steel mill profits remain favorable, and the motivation for voluntary production cuts is low. If administrative production cuts occur, there is potential for a co-resonance price increase in coking coal, leading to absolute returns in the equity sector [2][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Tracking - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 0.81%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points, ranking 30th out of 32 industries. As of August 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 698 CNY/ton, up by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton [6][21]. - The supply of coking coal is tight due to production control measures and stricter safety regulations ahead of military parades, which may support prices in the short term [6][22]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the coal sector has seen a decline of 0.81% in the past week, with the thermal coal index down by 0.93% and the coking coal index down by 0.55% [21][27]. - The report also notes that the coal sector has increased by 4.80% over the past month and by 3.41% over the past year [29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for improvement, including: 1. Elastic stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, and Huaibei Mining. 2. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. 3. Transition growth: Electric Power Investment [8]. Company Highlights - China Shenhua plans to acquire assets from the State Energy Group and raise funds through a share issuance [70]. - Jizhong Energy reported a 27.87% decline in revenue for the first half of 2025 [71]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy's coal production in July decreased by 9.13% year-on-year [72].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - Since Q2 of this year, the pressure on second-hand housing prices in core cities has increased, while first-hand housing prices and the land market remain relatively hot, leading to a significant disparity between the first and second-hand markets. The report highlights three main points: 1) Core cities face substantial downward pressure on second-hand housing prices 2) The process of price recovery for new homes in core areas is not yet over 3) The pressure to stabilize prices is increasing, with a new round of policy easing expected [2][5][9] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.53% this week, with an excess return of +1.16% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 7th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 4.96%, with an excess return of -1.83% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 26th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Recent policy optimizations include a unified down payment ratio of 15% for housing provident fund loans in Suzhou and Tianjin, and Hainan's initiative to acquire existing homes for affordable housing and relocation purposes [7][20] Sales Data - The sales data indicates a significant seasonal decline, but the year-on-year performance for second-hand transactions remains relatively stable due to a low base. For instance, the new home transaction area in 37 cities saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 17.9%, while second-hand homes showed a slight year-on-year change of 0.0% [8][21] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the contrasting trends in first and second-hand housing prices, emphasizing that core cities are experiencing a potential correction in second-hand prices, while new homes are expected to see a price recovery due to previously strict price controls [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the industry is still in a bottoming phase, and cautious investment is a rational choice. However, the company has relatively ample sellable land reserves, which can ensure that its sales scale maintains an industry-leading position [2][12] - In the medium to long term, the industry supply structure is optimizing, and the company is expected to establish a solid foothold in its home base of Zhuhai, deeply cultivate core cities, and achieve quality sales through solid investments [2][12] - The company is making efforts to improve quality and efficiency, focusing on shareholder returns. It is actively repurchasing shares for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, effectively aligning shareholder interests with management interests. As of the end of July 2025, a total of 23.77 million shares have been repurchased (accounting for 0.864% of total share capital), with a total repurchase amount of 120 million yuan. The mid-term cash dividend for 2025 is 0.02 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 31.7% [2][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 38.2 billion yuan (up 53.5%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million yuan (down 86.4%). The comprehensive gross profit margin was 14.2% (down 2.6 percentage points) [6][12] - The company reported asset and credit impairment losses of 1.52 billion yuan (compared to 50 million yuan in the same period last year) and a loss of 140 million yuan from investments in joint ventures (compared to a profit of 270 million yuan last year) [12] Sales and Market Position - The company ranked 11th in the industry in terms of sales during the downturn, with a sales amount of 50.22 billion yuan (up 11.1%) and a sales area of 1.898 million square meters (up 13.8%). The average sales price was 26,459 yuan per square meter (down 2.4%) [12] - The company added two new projects in Chengdu in the first half of 2025, with a total land acquisition amount of 3.61 billion yuan (down 37.1%) and a land area of 153,000 square meters (up 64.3%) [12] Financial Structure - The company had a balance of interest-bearing debt of 142.96 billion yuan (up 0.95%), maintaining a stable debt scale with over 80% in long-term debt. The financing cost has steadily declined, with a comprehensive financing cost of 4.76%, down 46 basis points from the end of 2024 [12]

Group 1: Dividend Investment Insights - Dividend investment arises from the pursuit of safety margins in uncertain macroeconomic environments, especially as asset returns decline during economic plateau phases[2] - For equity investors, constructing a "safety margin" relies on selecting high-yield assets or "ticket assets" in undervalued areas[2] - For fixed-income investors, yield elasticity comes from the "+" in "fixed income +", traditionally achieved by increasing equity assets, including relatively low-volatility "ticket assets"[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Stock Selection - Since August 2025, insurance companies have intensified their stock purchases, with 28 instances recorded this year, including 20 in H-shares[18][20] - The pricing formula for dividend assets follows: [Dividend Yield + Earnings Certainty] ≥ [Long-term Bond Yield + Risk Premium], with market risk preference being a core influencing factor[6] - Traditional stable dividend sectors like utilities and banks maintain relatively high dividend yields, with banks showing lower EPS volatility compared to utilities[25] Group 3: Sector Performance and Rotation - The high-dividend sector has experienced rotation, with coal dividends leading in 2021, followed by operators in late 2022, and a resurgence of coal, highways, and hydropower in 2023[7][49] - By 2025, traditional dividend assets have shown a decline, with banks maintaining relative returns, while the demand for high-dividend quality and Hong Kong stocks has increased[60] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) theme is expected to benefit cyclical dividend assets, with static dividend yield representing an important valuation safety dimension[62]

固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] XGBoost 模型预测 10Y 国债收益率走势 ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（六） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告探讨了用 XGBoost 模型预测 10 年期国债收益率的相关内容，指出国债收益率预测面临 数据端低信噪比、模型端局限及市场端"测不准"等挑战。XGBoost 因适配中小规模表格数据、 可解释性强等优势，成为优选模型。报告介绍了模型搭建逻辑，包括数据处理、样本加权等步 骤。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title XGBoost 模型预测 2] 10Y 国债收益率走势 ——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（六） [Table_Summary2] 模型实现精准预测的三重挑战 作为金融市 ...