敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 09 月 27 日 本周大市值与低波动风格显著 ——因子周报 20250926 金融工程 1. 主要市场指数与风格表现回顾 本周主要宽基指数大部分上涨。创业板指上涨1.96%，沪深300上涨1.07%， 深证成指上涨 1.06%，中证 800 上涨 1.05%，中证 500 上涨 0.98%，上证指数 上涨 0.21%，中证 1000 下跌 0.55%，中证 2000 下跌 1.79%，北证 50 下跌 3.11%。 从行业来看，电子、有色金属、电力设备及新能源、电力及公用事业、传媒 等行业表现居前；消费者服务、商贸零售、轻工制造、纺织服装、食品饮料等行 业表现居后。 从风格因子来看，最近一周波动性因子、规模因子、流动性因子的表现尤为 突出，因子多空收益分别为-2.90%、2.61%和-2.52%。 2. 选股因子表现跟踪 沪深 300 股票池中，本周 120 日成交量比率、20 日换手率、20 日收益率 标准差因子表现较好。中证 500 股票池中，60 日换手率、20 日成交额、120 日 三因子模型残差波动率因子表现较好。中证 800 股票 ...

Domestic Policy Focus - The industry stabilization plans for steel, construction materials, and light industry have been issued, emphasizing capacity regulation compared to previous versions [3][6][8] - The steel industry plan aims for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added, with a focus on supply-side structural adjustments and strict capacity control measures [9][10] - The construction materials plan prohibits the addition of new cement and flat glass capacity, requiring capacity replacement plans for new and renovated projects [10][11] Biopharmaceutical Sector - The National Drug Procurement Office released the national centralized drug procurement document (GY-YD2025-1), focusing on optimizing procurement rules and reducing drug costs for the public [18] - Changes in the procurement process include stricter qualification standards for bidding companies and modifications to the selection rules to respect clinical choices [18] Overseas Policy Developments - The U.S. Congress delegation visited China, with discussions focusing on Taiwan and military issues [3][6] - The U.S. and U.K. signed a significant technology cooperation agreement during President Trump's visit, addressing core issues such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation [3][6] Weekly Industry Policy Review - Key areas of focus include the rectification of internal competition, new production capabilities, infrastructure, new energy vehicles, media, and biopharmaceuticals [3][6] Other Policies - The third round of inspections by various financial regulatory bodies has been reported, indicating ongoing efforts to improve regulatory compliance and governance [3][6]

银行研思录 19 上市银行"十四五回望"之盈利结构变迁 总量研究/银行 本报告为"十四五"期间银行经营回顾与"十五五"规划展望系列第二篇《盈 利结构变迁》，我们将系统展示对于 42 家 A 股上市银行在"十四五"期间的 ROE 结构拆分以及相对行业优势的变化，以表征各银行板块和单家银行盈利结 构和盈利质量的变迁逻辑、驱动因素与结构性特征，为衔接"十五五"战略布 局提供镜鉴。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 09 月 26 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 10527.7 | 10.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9870.5 | 10.4 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.8 3.6 23.4 相对表现 -9.6 -13.2 -11.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Sep/24 Jan/25 May/25 Sep/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《上市银行债市浮盈余额有多少？ —银行研思录 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the gaming sector, specifically recommending companies like Giant Network, Tencent, and others in the industry [2][7]. Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to benefit significantly from supportive policies and emerging AI applications, with the third-quarter reports anticipated to show strong performance [7]. - Giant Network is highlighted for its steady revenue and profit growth, with new product launches expected to contribute positively in future reporting periods [7]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the gaming industry amidst economic fluctuations, positioning it as a promising area for investment [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The media industry saw a 0.69% increase last week, ranking 10th among all sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 37.23%, placing it 4th overall [11]. - The gaming sector, particularly leading companies like ST Huatuo and Giant Network, reached new highs, prompting recommendations to increase holdings in this area [7]. Company Performance - Giant Network's revenue and profit are steadily increasing, with a significant rise in contract liabilities, indicating growth in deferred revenue from games [7]. - The flagship mobile game "Original Journey" has successfully expanded its user base, achieving over 2 million new users in the first half of the year [7]. - The company is actively integrating AI technologies into its gaming products, enhancing user engagement and gameplay experiences [7]. Market Data - The report notes that the gaming sector's valuation remains attractive, with a strong outlook for international expansion and AI integration [7]. - The gaming industry is characterized as one of the most benefited sectors from current market conditions and policy support [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [1] Core Views - Xiaomi has launched the Xiaomi 17 series, which includes significant upgrades across all models, aiming to compete directly with the iPhone in the high-end market [5] - The company is expanding its IoT product line with new high-end devices, including tablets, TVs, and smart home appliances, enhancing its AIoT ecosystem [5] - Xiaomi's automotive segment is gaining traction, with over 40,000 units of the YU7 model delivered and the introduction of customized services for its vehicles [5] - The report forecasts substantial revenue growth for Xiaomi, projecting total revenues of 489.9 billion, 660.3 billion, and 823.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 43.1 billion, 63.5 billion, and 86.6 billion yuan for the same years [6][9] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi Group is positioned as one of the top three smartphone manufacturers globally and the largest AIoT smart hardware platform [5] Financial Performance - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, estimating total revenue growth of 34% in 2025 and 35% in 2026, with net profit growth of 66% and 54% respectively [6][9] - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 35.7 for 2025, decreasing to 16.7 by 2027, indicating improving valuation over time [6][10] Product Development - The Xiaomi 17 series features three models with advanced specifications, including the Snapdragon 8 processor and significant battery capacity [5] - The introduction of high-end IoT products, such as the Xiaomi Pad 8 series and the S Pro Mini LED TV, reflects Xiaomi's strategy to enhance its product offerings [5] Automotive Segment - The automotive division is expected to grow, with the YU7 model's delivery numbers indicating strong market acceptance and the potential for further expansion through customized services [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for leading internet companies with stable performance and strong AI positioning, including Tencent Holdings, Pop Mart, Kuaishou, NetEase, Bilibili, and Meitu [1] Core Insights - Tencent hosted the Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, announcing that the daily active users (DAU) for "Delta Action" reached a new high [1] - The internet industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies reporting significant declines in revenue while others show improvement in profitability [2][3] - The overall market performance for the week of September 15-21 shows varied results across different indices, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rising by 4.00% [13] Industry Overview - The internet industry comprises 160 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 2087.8 billion and a circulating market value of 1898.8 billion [5] - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.9%, 12.1%, and 77.6% respectively, while the relative performance is -1.7%, -0.1%, and 36.8% [7] Company Announcements - Oriental Selection reported a significant decline in net revenue for the fiscal year ending May 31, 2025, with a 99.64% drop to 6.19 million [2] - Weimeng Group's mid-year report for 2025 showed a revenue decrease of 10.6% to 775 million, but a substantial improvement in net loss, which decreased by 5.17 billion [3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.14% [13] - In the Hong Kong market, Tencent Holdings experienced a slight decline of 0.16%, while Bilibili-W and Kuaishou-W saw increases of 6.64% and 0.73% respectively [18] Recommended Companies - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou-W, Bilibili-W, Pop Mart, and Meitu [1]

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.7% in July, but still above 5%[5] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 5.7%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 0.5 percentage points, with 31 out of 41 industrial categories showing year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 75.6%[5] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant expansion, with added value increasing by 9.3% year-on-year, indicating strong momentum in emerging industries[5] Investment Trends - From January to August, fixed asset investment grew by only 0.5% year-on-year, a decline from 1.6% in the previous period, with real estate being a major drag[5] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth, with notable increases in consumer goods manufacturing (9.0%) and aerospace manufacturing (28.0%)[5] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, with August alone seeing a 19.5% decline, marking the largest monthly drop of the year[6] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year in August, with significant growth in home appliances (14.3%) and furniture (18.6%) despite a slight overall slowdown[6] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached over 50%, with August retail sales showing a positive shift to +0.8% from -1.5% in July[6] Market Outlook - The economic recovery momentum is expected to continue, with GDP growth projected to meet the target of around 5% for the year, despite a forecasted slowdown in Q3 compared to Q2[6] - A-shares typically exhibit a "pre-holiday contraction, post-holiday surge" pattern, with over 60% probability of index gains following the National Day holiday[7] Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with short-term credit spreads narrowing while long-term spreads are widening, indicating a mixed market sentiment[7] - The average duration of bank TPL (Total Portfolio Loss) is estimated at 3 years, with projected floating losses of approximately 453 billion yuan for Q3 due to rising long-term bond yields[9]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant rise in the technology sector driven by multiple industrial transformations, suggesting that investors can capture investment opportunities through technology-themed funds [1][6][8] - The active funds heavily invested in A+H shares of the technology sector have a total management scale of 2,473.72 billion, with 242 funds identified as focusing on this area [4][9][10] - The technology team at China Europe Fund has over 10 years of experience in the technology sector, evolving from a "single manager" model to a "group operation" strategy, establishing a systematic and collaborative investment research framework [4][12][13] Group 2 - The China Europe Fund's technology team consists of approximately 25 core members, including 13 fund managers and 12 researchers, with a clear division of labor and a focus on various sub-sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics [12][13][16] - The investment research system of the technology team emphasizes a three-pronged approach of breadth, depth, and timeliness, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the global technology landscape [14][15] - The team has developed a product matrix that covers the entire technology industry chain, with specific funds focusing on AI hardware, robotics, digital economy, and internet platforms [18][19] Group 3 - The "China Europe Innovation Theme" fund covers the entire technology industry chain, from upstream semiconductors and AI hardware to downstream consumer electronics and robotics, aiming for comprehensive exposure [20][21] - The "China Europe Digital Economy" fund focuses on AI infrastructure, applications, humanoid robots, and smart devices, aligning with the trend of digital transformation driven by AI [47][48] - The performance of the "China Europe Digital Economy" fund has been outstanding, with a cumulative return of 101.43% since the current manager took over, ranking it in the top 1% among similar funds [48][50]

Group 1: Research Overview - The report is a compilation of 22 in-depth studies on the banking sector by the招商证券 team, led by Wang Xianshuang[1] - The focus is on valuable research contributions to the development of China's banking industry and financial markets[1] Group 2: Key Themes - The analysis introduces a framework for calculating banks' free cash flow, challenging traditional views that banks lack free cash flow[3] - It explores the reasons behind insurance capital's increasing investment in Hong Kong banks, highlighting benefits like dividend yield and systemic importance[4] - The concept of "asset scarcity" is defined and quantified, providing insights into recent trends in the interest rate market[5] Group 3: Investment Insights - The report indicates that insurance capital has become a major source of incremental funding for banks, with a focus on deepening cooperation between the two sectors[8] - Historical analysis shows that the banking sector has significantly outperformed the market, with a high annualized return rate exceeding 20% since 2008[9] - A new method for calculating banks' asset quality is introduced, enhancing the understanding of performance predictions and investment strategies[11] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The impact of large bank capital injections on market liquidity is analyzed, providing a macro-accounting perspective on credit and money creation[7] - The report discusses the implications of deposit and loan maturity schedules on banks' interest margins, offering a novel approach to estimating these figures[12][14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company specializes in the export of civil valves and has established a global presence, benefiting from the expansion of global AIDC capital expenditures and the increasing penetration of liquid cooling systems [1][9]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 5.78 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.75 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% [8][9]. - The company has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with the main shareholder holding 55.83% of the shares, ensuring consistent strategic decision-making [32][37]. Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience in the civil valve industry, focusing on fire valves, water valves, and natural gas valves, with a complete SKU range [6][13]. - The company has obtained certifications from multiple countries, exporting to over 70 countries and regions, and is the sole supplier of fire valves for Saudi Aramco in Asia [6][13]. - The company’s revenue from exports is expected to account for approximately 76% in 2024 [6]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue grew from 345 million yuan to 578 million yuan, with a CAGR of 14%, while net profit increased from 58 million yuan to 131 million yuan, with a CAGR of 22.6% [6][8]. - The company's gross margin improved from 34.53% to 40.34% and net margin from 16.82% to 22.65% during the same period, indicating enhanced profitability [6][30]. Market Characteristics - The global valve market was approximately 73 billion USD in 2021 and is projected to reach 90.5 billion USD by 2026, driven by increasing demand in healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and smart city developments [6][45]. - The valve market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with major players concentrated in the US, Japan, and Germany, while domestic companies often focus on niche segments [39][51]. Data Center Demand - The increasing penetration of liquid cooling systems in data centers is expected to drive significant growth in valve demand, as these systems require precise flow and temperature control [6][9]. - The complexity of liquid cooling systems is leading to a higher demand for high-precision control valves, which will increase the overall value of valve applications in this sector [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - The valve manufacturing industry is dominated by established players in the US, Japan, and Germany, while the domestic market remains fragmented with many small-scale companies [51][57]. - The company is positioned to capture market share due to its competitive pricing and shorter delivery times compared to foreign brands, alongside its extensive project experience in overseas markets [9][51].