——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 11 月 27 日） | 新房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 月 | 27 日） | 二手房（11 | 月 | 1 日-11 | 月 | 27 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 10 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 10 月 | | 样本城市 | | | | 样本城市 | -12% | | -收窄 | +10 PCT | | （39 城） | -33% | -扩大 | -6 PCT | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -40% | -扩大 | -4 PCT | 一线城市 | -21% | | -收窄 | +6 PCT | | 城） （4 | | | | 城） （2 | | | | | | 二线城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -9 PCT ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to the benchmark index [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI technology, particularly the introduction of new AI products by major players such as Alibaba and ByteDance, which are expected to enhance the domestic AI industry chain [1][6]. - The Singapore national AI project has adopted Alibaba's open-source model, indicating a shift in regional AI development strategies and showcasing the competitive edge of Chinese AI technologies [10][11]. - The launch of the Quark AI glasses by Alibaba represents a significant innovation in AI-enabled consumer electronics, integrating various functionalities and advanced imaging technologies [13][15]. - ByteDance is set to release an AI-native smartphone, which promises enhanced user experience through deep integration of AI capabilities, marking a new trend in mobile technology [20]. Summary by Sections Weekly Highlights - The report discusses the strategic shift of Singapore's AI project to utilize Alibaba's Qwen model, which has shown superior performance in Southeast Asian language processing [10][11]. Market Performance Review - In the fourth week of November 2025, the computer sector experienced a 3.08% increase, with notable stock performances from companies like Pingao Co. and Jiayuan Technology [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 3.3% during the week from November 24 to November 30, with significant developments including Changan's plan to establish a robotics subsidiary and Leap Motor's announcement of a sales target of 1 million units for 2026, marking it as the first new force car company in China to set such a target [1][9][28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the Shenzhen A Index by 3.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.5% during the same week [2][10]. - Within the automotive industry, all secondary segments saw gains, particularly the automotive services and parts sectors, which rose by 3.9% and 3.7% respectively [13][10]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Tianpu Co., which surged by 35.3%, and Chaojie Co., which increased by 28.4% [3][16]. - Among covered stocks, GAC Group saw a rise of 21.7%, while Kanglongda experienced a decline of 6.0% [19][3]. Industry Developments - Changan Automobile plans to invest 225 million yuan to establish a robotics company, aiming to enhance its capabilities in intelligent automotive technology [9][25]. - Great Wall Motors is set to establish its first complete vehicle factory in Europe, targeting an annual production capacity of 300,000 units by 2029 [26]. - Avita has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for a second-quarter 2026 IPO [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile [9]. - For commercial vehicles, it highlights Yutong Bus, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Weichai Power as key investment opportunities [9].

Domestic Economic Outlook - November high-frequency data generally weaker than seasonal trends, indicating a need for more growth-stabilizing policies to support early 2026 economic recovery[2] - October industrial enterprise profit growth fell to -5.5%, a significant drop from 21.6% and 20.4% in August and September respectively, reflecting weak domestic demand[21] - November PMI data shows manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating continued contraction, while non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5[21] International Economic Insights - Revelio Labs predicts a loss of 9,000 non-farm jobs in the U.S. for October, primarily due to government employment declines from shutdowns[2] - December FOMC likely to implement a 25 basis point rate cut, with a hawkish outlook for future rate cuts in Q1 2026 due to inflation pressures[2] Asset Market Trends - Anticipated "spring rally" in the domestic market driven by technology growth, with potential buying opportunities in mid to late December[3] - U.S. AI and inflation trades are shifting from exclusion to resonance, suggesting a prolonged easing cycle to maintain the bull market until H2 2026[3] - December is expected to see hawkish rate cuts alongside rising interest rate expectations in Japan, leading to uncertainty in U.S. equities for the following month[3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Overall liquidity remains stable, with a slight increase in benchmark rates by approximately 0.79 basis points[23] - The central bank's open market operations have tightened, with a total reverse repo injection of 15,118 billion yuan for the week[23] Market Performance Overview - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40% this week, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%[42] - Gold prices have surpassed 4,200, while crude oil experienced slight declines[40]

Core Insights - The report suggests a high probability of an upward breakout in the market, leading to a cross-year rally, particularly due to anticipated positive economic policy adjustments from the upcoming political meetings [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of December as a strategic month for investment, with increased demand for equity funds expected due to the influx of new insurance premiums and favorable currency conditions [2][3] - The report identifies three main investment directions: infrastructure and real estate, service consumption, and self-sufficiency, with a focus on policy-driven adjustments [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a "golden stock" combination including companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology [2][4] - Specific insights into Luxshare Precision highlight its strong position in the Apple supply chain and its potential for robust growth across various sectors, including automotive [8][9] - Shengyi Technology is noted for its leading position in the CCL market, with expectations for continued high-end product upgrades and significant growth potential [12][13] - Century Huatong is recognized for its innovative gaming strategies and strong market position, particularly with its successful game releases [17] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to benefit from increasing overseas demand for optical modules, with a strong production capacity [17] - Haiguang Information is expected to see growth in its DCU chip business due to domestic project implementations [24] - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its prudent management and strong asset quality, with expectations for recovery in performance as economic conditions improve [24] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand and a strong competitive position in the market [24] - Zijin Mining is anticipated to benefit from favorable commodity price trends, particularly in gold and copper [24] - Xingye Silver Tin is positioned as a leading silver producer with significant growth potential [20] - XGIMI Technology is expected to see revenue growth driven by market recovery and product innovation [20] Earnings Forecasts - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology are projected to achieve over 30% stable growth in earnings this year [5] Financial Metrics - Luxshare Precision is projected to have an EPS of 1.85 in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 22.03% [6] - Shengyi Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2024 to 2.03 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 49.37% in 2024 [7] - Century Huatong's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.16 in 2024 to 1.11 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 131.51% in 2024 [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see significant growth in EPS from 4.61 in 2024 to 17.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 137.93% in 2024 [7] - Haiguang Information's EPS is projected to grow from 0.83 in 2024 to 2.01 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 52.87% in 2024 [7] - Alibaba's EPS is expected to rise from 3.91 in 2024 to 5.82 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 9.93% in 2024 [7] - Zijin Mining's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 51.76% in 2024 [7] - Xingye Silver Tin's EPS is projected to grow from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.39 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 57.82% in 2024 [7] - XGIMI Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 1.72 in 2024 to 5.20 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of -0.3% in 2024 [7]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 30 日 全球流动性回暖，但国内风险偏好回升或仍在蓄力 定期报告 ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续对后市维持震荡走势的判断，虽然外部流动性风险下 降带动全球风险偏好回升，但 A 股量能持续收缩叠加基本面数据未见好转， 国内风险偏好回升或仍处蓄力过程中。具体来看：一是交易维度信号偏弱， 目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均 给出偏向谨慎信号。即当前存量资金博弈期间，市场交易主线较为缺乏，不 论是科技方向还是红利方向，均未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度并未好 转，11 月 PMI 录得 49.20，为季节性偏弱水平（过去 10 年同月仅强于 2022 年），叠加社融增速见顶、CPI 数据未见好转，当前基本面"需求相对疲 弱、中上游价格修复"的结构性复苏局面较为明显，或不足以支撑权益市场 全面趋势上行。三是全球流动性危机警报或暂时解除，对 A 股利空影响减 弱。目前 CME"美联储观察"对 12 月美联储降息概率的预测达到 86.40%， 叠加美元持续走弱、美股小盘股短期领涨、贵金属与加密货币短期显著反弹 的现象，我们认为全球流 ...

Domestic Policy Topics: Establishment of Commercial Space Administration, Focus on Price Governance and Energy Storage - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration aims to address the overlapping functions and decentralized management of multiple departments in the commercial space sector, marking a key step towards standardized and scaled regulation [4][7][8] - The recent policy developments include the issuance of a development plan for commercial space, which outlines 22 key measures across five areas, such as encouraging the layout of the space industry chain and supporting the development of new technologies and products [4][10][12] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively working to address issues of disorderly price competition in various industries, emphasizing the need for a standardized approach to maintain market order and support high-quality development [16][20] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held discussions with manufacturers in the energy storage and power battery sectors to promote high-quality development and address competitive order within the industry [17][20] Overseas Policy Topics: US-China Presidential Call, Developments in the Russia-Ukraine Issue - A recent phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump highlighted the importance of stabilizing US-China relations and discussed key issues such as Taiwan and the Ukraine crisis [4][9] - The ongoing developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation include significant negotiations between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, with discussions on potential agreements to end the conflict [4][9] Consumer Supply and Demand Adaptation Policy Issuance - The implementation plan issued by six departments aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, targeting the optimization of supply structures and the establishment of three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027 [21][25] - The plan emphasizes the importance of aligning consumption upgrades with industrial upgrades, promoting new technologies and models, and expanding the supply of high-quality consumer goods [21][24] - A total of 22 consumer promotion policies have been introduced this year, with a significant focus on fiscal subsidies, particularly for vulnerable groups and sectors [23][27]

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) with a target price of HKD 141.90, while the current stock price is HKD 102.5 [3]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial performance showed revenue of HKD 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, but operating profit was negative at HKD -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%. Adjusted net profit was also negative at HKD -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1][6]. - Despite the intense competition in the food delivery sector, Meituan's long-term business barriers and growth potential remain strong, with overseas operations providing new growth opportunities [1][6]. - The report highlights that the core local business segment generated revenue of HKD 67.45 billion, down 2.8%, while new business revenue was HKD 28.04 billion, up 15.9% [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected main revenue for Meituan is expected to grow from HKD 276.85 billion in 2023 to HKD 482.81 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% [2][8]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be negative at HKD -15.46 billion in 2025, but is expected to recover to HKD 45.63 billion by 2027 [2][8]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) for new businesses, which is expected to be -4.6% in Q3 2025, showing a reduction in losses [6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Meituan maintains a leading market share in high-value orders despite the competitive pressures in the food delivery market, with expectations for a more rational competitive environment in Q4 [6]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on high-value users and orders, which positions it favorably against competitors [6]. - The performance of the flash purchase segment is projected to grow by approximately 30% in Q3 2025, although it still faces negative operating profit margins [6]. Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of Meituan is HKD 626.4 billion, with major shareholders holding a 9.05% stake [3].

Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]