证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 28 日 维持震荡看多，风格转向大盘 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250928 1. 当前市场观察 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 金融工程 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场继续震荡，大盘成长风格维持强势，价值风格继续走弱。具体来 看，万得全 A 指数上涨约 0.25%，上证 50、沪深 300 分别上涨约 1.09%、 1.09%，中证 1000 则下跌约 0.52%。国证价值下跌约 0.25%，而国证成长上 涨约 2.37%，创业板指、科创 50 分别上涨约 1.97%、6.47%。 ❑ 择时方面，继续看多 A 股，但短期看好程度有所下降。继续看好的核心原因 为当前市场交易情绪仍相对较强、人民币升值背景下内外部流动性宽裕、基 本面上信贷脉冲不弱且消费 ...

A 股 TMT ETF 收益领涨，板块获资金大幅流入 证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 09 月 28 日 ETF 基金周度跟踪（0922-0926） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（9 月 22 日-9 月 26 日）股票 ETF 多数上涨。其中，A 股 TMT ETF 与沪港深主题 ETF 涨幅最大，规模以上基金平均分别上涨 4.39%、4.28%。 相反，A 股消费 ETF、港股红利 ETF 有较大下跌，规模以上基金分别平均 下跌 2.24%、2.15%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金流动方面，资金大幅流入 A 股 TMT ETF，全周资金净流入 178.89 亿 元。相反，A 股中小盘 ETF 和 A 股周期 ETF 出现资金流出，全周资金分 别净流出 22.51 亿元、20.23 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the intertwined nature of money and banking, stating that modern banks and credit money emerged simultaneously, with banks generating interest income through money creation and service fees from money circulation [5][10] - It discusses the evolution of financial regulation, highlighting the tightening of financial supervision and the reduction of regulatory arbitrage opportunities, which impacts banks' macro credit creation capabilities [5][11] - The report notes the global dominance of the US dollar as a world currency, while also addressing the potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi amid the declining trust in the dollar [5][11] Summary by Sections Introduction: Money and Banking - The report introduces the concept that studying banks necessitates an understanding of money, and vice versa, establishing a foundation for further exploration of banking and monetary systems [10] Evolution of Money - The report outlines the progression from a barter system to the introduction of physical currency, illustrating how complex transactions necessitated a common medium of exchange [12][14][16] Wealth Accumulation and Banking - It describes the transition from wealth storage in physical forms to the establishment of banks, where trust in goldsmiths led to the creation of deposit certificates and the initial forms of banking [18][21] Modern Banking System - The report details the characteristics of the modern banking system, including the role of central banks, reserve requirements, and the impact of regulatory frameworks on banking operations [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks, particularly copper, precious metals, and cobalt, suggesting an adjustment to a buy rating [1]. Core Insights - The copper supply issue has deepened market understanding of metal resource supply and demand dynamics. Despite a significant decline in China's real estate sector in 2023, various non-ferrous metals have shown unexpectedly strong consumption [1]. - The report highlights a notable increase in precious metals, reinforcing the logic of de-dollarization, with central bank gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new material stocks related to technological growth, alongside traditional non-ferrous metals like copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The weekly price of antimony ingots is reported at 175,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.96%. The domestic antimony market is still under pressure from oversupply [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among sectors. Precious metals led with a 5.55% increase, while small metals and new materials saw declines [4]. - The largest weekly gain was observed in cobalt prices, which rose by 12.74% due to surging demand from the battery industry and tightening export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. Copper Market - As of September 25, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 0.88 million tons to 14.89 million tons, down from 15.43 million tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a shift from surplus to a slight deficit in global copper supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced operational setbacks, leading to a significant downward revision of expected copper output for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by strong fundamentals and ongoing supply issues [4]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 617,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking. The report notes a significant increase in aluminum cable exports and a recovery in production rates [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3,761 USD/ounce (+2.1%) and silver at 46.055 USD/ounce (+7.0%). The report attributes this to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Platinum prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 12.2% in the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic data [5]. New Materials and Energy - The report highlights the robust demand for lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate prices showing slight increases. The cobalt market is expected to face a significant supply gap in the coming years due to export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The report also discusses the potential for uranium prices to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a slight overall increase of 0.1% during the week from September 21 to September 27, with notable events including Chery Automobile's successful IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening at HKD 34.20, which is 11% higher than its IPO price of HKD 30.75 [1][26]. - Several new models were launched ahead of the National Day holiday, including the Shangjie H5, which saw over 10,000 pre-orders within the first hour of its release, and the Li Auto i6, priced at CNY 24.98 million with promotional discounts [1][26]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was mixed, with the overall market showing a slight increase. The Shanghai A-share index rose by 0.2%, while the Shenzhen A-share index fell by 0.1% [2][10]. - Within the automotive industry, the motorcycle and other segments showed the most significant increase of 5.0%, while the automotive services and commercial vehicle sectors experienced declines of 5.5% and 2.6%, respectively [2][13]. Individual Stock Performance - Among individual stocks, notable gainers included Xinzhibiao (+25.0%), Kebo Da (+22.6%), and Tiangong Co. (+21.0%). Conversely, significant decliners included Zhongma Transmission (-15.2%), Shanghai Wumao (-14.0%), and Mingxin Xuteng (-13.7%) [3][20][18]. Recent Industry Developments - Key developments included the announcement of a 25% tariff on heavy trucks by the U.S. government, effective October 1, aimed at protecting domestic manufacturers [9][26]. - The report highlights the successful launch of several new models, including the Tengshi N8L SUV, which is positioned as a luxury family vehicle with a starting price of CNY 31.98 million [27][30]. - The report also notes the strategic partnerships and technological advancements in the industry, such as the collaboration between Xpeng Motors and Alibaba Cloud for quantum security technology [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong sales performance or potential blockbuster vehicles, such as BYD, Seres, Great Wall Motors, and Jianghuai Automobile. It also suggests monitoring key partners of Huawei, including BAIC Blue Valley, Changan Automobile, and SAIC Motor [9][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, highlighting opportunities in undervalued assets with a focus on high dividend yields [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery in the shipping sector, the attractiveness of infrastructure assets with dividend yields above 5%, and the positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2025-2026 [1][17][22]. - It also notes the potential for valuation recovery in the express delivery sector due to easing price competition [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining due to reduced cargo volumes ahead of the National Day holiday. However, shipowners expect price stabilization in late October [10][17]. - Oil tanker rates remain high but are experiencing slight fluctuations, with VLCC rates at $89,000/day, down 6% from the previous week [13][47]. - The dry bulk market shows signs of recovery, with the BDI index rising by 2.5% to 2259 points [16][43]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - The infrastructure sector is highlighted for its stability, with major highways showing a dividend yield of over 5%, making them attractive for investment [18][19]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in truck traffic and stable growth in rail freight, with national rail cargo volume increasing by 0.2% week-on-week [18][50]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain strong growth, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [20][60]. - The report notes a shift towards price stabilization due to "anti-involution" policies, which are expected to improve industry valuations [20]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation industry is experiencing a slight decline in passenger volume due to adverse weather conditions, but ticket prices and load factors remain strong, with domestic ticket prices up 13.2% year-on-year [22][21]. - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the aviation sector in Q4, driven by low base effects and increased travel demand [22].

资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 前瞻及佐证指标： 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 二手房日均网签面积高于去年同期水平 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 9 月 25 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等；备注：考虑到今年和去年中秋节假期日期不一致 （去年为 9 月 15-17 日），若剔除中秋节假期影响，9 月以来新房日均成交面积同比减少 约 2%，二手房日均成交面积增加约 2% 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 9 月 25 日） | 新房（9 | 月 | 1 日-9 | 月 | 25 日） | 二手房（9 | 月 | 月 1 日-9 | 25 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 8 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 | 8 月 | | 样本城市 | +7% | | 转正 | +28 PCT | 样本城市 | +18% | 转 ...

Profit Growth Analysis - In August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises was 0.9%, a significant recovery of 2.6 percentage points from July 2025's -1.7%[1] - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises in August 2025 was 2.3%, unchanged from July 2025[1] - The year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in August 2025 was 20.4%, a substantial increase from the previous month's -1.5%[1] Contributing Factors - The profit growth shift from negative to positive was primarily supported by a low base effect from the previous year[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a cumulative year-on-year decline of -2.9%, while the cumulative year-on-year industrial added value growth rate was 6.2%[1] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.58 yuan, an increase of 0.19 yuan year-on-year, indicating rising costs[1] Industry Performance - The upstream mining sector continued to be the largest drag on overall industry profits, with most sectors experiencing negative profit growth except for non-ferrous metal mining[1] - The profit growth rate for the raw materials manufacturing sector improved significantly, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.1%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[1] - The equipment manufacturing sector recorded a cumulative profit growth rate of 7.2%, also contributing 2.5 percentage points to overall profit growth[1] Future Outlook - The profit growth for industrial enterprises is expected to continue rising in the coming month due to an extremely low base of -27.1% from the previous year[1] - Ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to support price improvements in various industries, particularly in raw materials manufacturing[1] - However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream may face obstacles, necessitating policy support for demand recovery[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market, summarizing the performance of major indices and quantitative funds in the past week, the overall performance and distribution of different types of public quantitative funds, and the top - performing quantitative funds this week for investors' reference. During September 22 - 26, 2025, the A - share market continued to fluctuate, quantitative funds showed differentiated performance, and most of the excess returns were negative [1][2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Performance of Major Indices and Quantitative Funds in the Past Week - The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with different performances among indices. The one - week returns of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 1.07%, 0.98%, and - 0.55% respectively [3][6]. - Quantitative funds showed differentiated performance. Active quantitative funds rose by an average of 0.44%. Most of the excess returns were weak. CSI 300 index - enhanced, CSI 500 index - enhanced, and other index - enhanced funds recorded negative excess returns of - 0.22%, - 0.09%, and - 0.09% respectively. Only CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds outperformed the index, with an average excess return of 0.53%. Market - neutral funds fell by an average of 0.27% [4][9]. 2. Performance of Different Types of Public Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 0.85%, 1.58%, 14.41%, 16.51%, 28.39%, and 17.37% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were - 0.22%, - 0.61%, - 0.90%, 0.42%, 0.06%, and 1.73% [13]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 0.89%, 2.65%, 21.40%, 21.92%, 44.92%, and 27.42% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were - 0.09%, - 1.32%, - 2.63%, 0.19%, - 1.71%, and 0.95% [13]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were - 0.01%, - 0.33%, 19.44%, 21.80%, 60.37%, and 31.61% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were 0.53%, 0.72%, 1.04%, 5.03%, 8.59%, and 7.44% [14]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 1.30%, 4.54%, 24.72%, 27.15%, 63.67%, and 34.49% respectively. The corresponding excess returns were - 0.09%, - 0.57%, - 1.72%, 1.46%, 0.58%, and 2.58% [14]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were 0.44%, 1.44%, 17.44%, 20.07%, 44.25%, and 26.00% respectively [15]. - **Market - Neutral Funds**: The one - week, one - month, three - month, six - month, one - year, and year - to - date returns were - 0.27%, - 0.37%, 0.01%, 0.18%, - 0.48%, and 0.59% respectively [15]. 3. Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public Quantitative Funds The report shows the performance trends of different types of public quantitative funds in the past six months, as well as the performance distribution in the past week and one year. Index - enhanced funds show the performance of excess returns [16]. 4. Top - Performing Public Quantitative Funds - **CSI 300 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds such as Huashang 300 Smart Selection, China - Europe CSI 300 Index Enhancement performed well, with different excess returns in different time periods [30]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds like Shenwan Hongyuan CSI 500 Optimal Enhancement, Penghua CSI 500 Index Enhancement had good performance [31]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds including Guolianan CSI 1000 Index Enhancement, Huatai - Peregrine CSI 1000 Enhanced Strategy ETF showed excellent performance [32]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Funds such as China Merchants CSI 2000 Enhanced Strategy ETF, China Merchants SZSE 2000 Index Enhancement performed well [33]. - **Active Quantitative Top - Performing Funds**: Funds like Taikang Semiconductor Quantitative Stock Selection, Jiutai Quantitative Emerging Industries had high returns [34]. - **Market - Neutral Top - Performing Funds**: Funds such as Huatai - Peregrine Absolute Return Strategy, ICBC Absolute Return performed well [35].