Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the financial technology sector within the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook for the industry as it is expected to outperform the benchmark index [3][19]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant increase in market trading activity, with the average daily trading volume in July 2025 reaching 16,336.05 billion yuan, a 22.28% increase from June [9][12]. - A notable rise in new A-share accounts was recorded, with 1,963,600 new accounts opened in July 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 70.5% [15]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has surpassed 20 trillion yuan, reaching a ten-year high, indicating heightened market activity and investor confidence [12][19]. - The financial technology sector is highlighted as a key investment focus due to its potential for performance release in a bull market and its relevance to risk-weighted asset (RWA) themes [19]. Summary by Sections Market Trading Activity - The report notes a continuous increase in trading activity since June, with the average daily trading volume in August 2025 reaching 17,176.16 billion yuan, a 5.14% increase from July [9][10]. - The report provides detailed monthly trading data, showing a significant rise in trading volumes and new account openings, correlating with positive market performance [10][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the financial technology sector, including trading software companies such as Tonghuashun and Dazhihui, as well as internet brokerage firms like Dongfang Caifu [19]. - It also recommends monitoring securities IT companies such as Hengsheng Electronics and Jinzhen Co., indicating their potential for growth in the current market environment [19].

招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，"普特会"未达成协议，解除制裁风险缓解；基础设施方 面，关注港股红利配置价值；航空方面，关注 25-26 年行业基本面上行趋势及 市值弹性；快递方面，关注 25 年价格竞争情况和行业估值修复潜力。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 8 月 17 日 航空国内票价跌幅持续收窄，关注油运 9 月货盘进场 推荐标的：中国外运（A 股）。 ❑ 风险提示：人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、快递价格战恶化、重大海上安 全事故、重大自然灾害等。 值提升。推荐标的：招商公路、皖通高速、唐山港、青岛港、招商港口。 ❑ 航空：客流环比爬升、国内票价同比跌幅持续收窄。1）高频数据表现上看， 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3129.6 | 3.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2888.5 | 3.3 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.3 11.2 26.5 相对表现 -0.3 4.5 0.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model: DeepSeek-R1 - **Model Construction Idea**: The DeepSeek-R1 model aims to innovate in AI technology by reducing dependency on high-end imported GPUs and enhancing cost-effectiveness and performance in global markets[5][12][30] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model is based on the DeepSeek-V3 architecture and applies reinforcement learning techniques during the post-training phase to significantly improve inference capabilities with minimal labeled data[33] - The model's performance in tasks such as mathematics, coding, and natural language inference is on par with OpenAI's o1 official version[33] - The team also introduced six distilled small models using knowledge distillation techniques, with the 32B and 70B versions surpassing OpenAI o1-mini in several capabilities[34] - The model's training cost was $5.576 million, only 1/10th of GPT-4o's training cost, and its API call cost is 1/30th of OpenAI's similar services[38] - **Formula**: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is highly cost-effective and adaptable to different application environments, breaking the traditional AI industry's reliance on "stacking computing power and capital"[38][43] Model Backtesting Results - **DeepSeek-R1 Model**: - **AIME pass@1**: 9.3 - **AIME cons@64**: 13.4 - **MATH-500 pass@1**: 74.6 - **GPQA Diamond pass@1**: 49.9 - **LiveCodeBench pass@1**: 32.9 - **CodeForces rating**: 759.0[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: SUE is used to measure the growth potential and latest marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry and individual stocks[57] - **Factor Construction Process**: - SUE is calculated as: $$ \text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}} $$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - **Factor Evaluation**: SUE effectively measures future earnings growth and the latest marginal changes in prosperity, representing the future trend changes in the industry[57] Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - **2022**: -29.8% - **2023**: 15.9% - **2024**: 20.1% - **2025 YTD**: 11.0%[65]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: "Three-Dimensional Composite Timing Signal" - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates three key timing indicators—"Credit Impulse, Beta Dispersion, and Trading Volume"—to represent three core timing dimensions: economic fundamentals, overall sentiment, and structural risk. It aims to balance high probability and high payoff indicators for superior timing performance[5][12]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Credit Impulse**: Measures the month-on-month change in credit balance percentile, reflecting economic fundamentals[5][15]. - **Beta Dispersion**: Captures the dispersion of stock betas, representing market sentiment and structural risk[5][12]. - **Trading Volume**: Quantifies market activity and liquidity, serving as a sentiment indicator[5][12]. - The composite signal combines these three indicators to generate timing signals, with historical backtesting showing strong in-sample and out-of-sample performance[12][14]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates excellent timing performance in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, effectively capturing market uptrends[12][14]. 2. Model Name: "Short-Term Timing Strategy" - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses macroeconomic, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity indicators to generate weekly timing signals[20][23]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: Includes PMI (>50 for optimism), credit impulse percentile (62.71%), and M1 growth rate percentile (96.61%)[20][23]. - **Valuation Indicators**: PE and PB percentiles (99.59% and 96.36%, respectively) are used to assess valuation levels[21][23]. - **Sentiment Indicators**: Beta dispersion (69.49%), trading volume sentiment (93.80%), and volatility (11.00%) are analyzed for market sentiment[21][23]. - **Liquidity Indicators**: Monetary rate (37.29%), exchange rate expectations (74.58%), and financing data (97.11%) are used to evaluate liquidity conditions[22][23]. - Signals are aggregated to determine overall market positioning[23]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has consistently outperformed the benchmark, with significant annualized returns and lower drawdowns[22][23]. 3. Model Name: "Growth-Value Style Rotation Model" - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates macroeconomic, valuation, and sentiment factors to determine the optimal allocation between growth and value styles[29][30]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Profit cycle slope (4.17), interest rate cycle level (14.17), and credit cycle changes (-3.33) are analyzed[31]. - **Valuation Factors**: PE and PB valuation spreads (23.99% and 39.00%, respectively) are used to assess relative attractiveness[31]. - **Sentiment Factors**: Turnover and volatility spreads (38.13% and 19.97%, respectively) are considered for sentiment analysis[31]. - Signals are combined to recommend allocations between growth and value styles[31]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has delivered significant excess returns over the benchmark since 2012, though it underperformed in 2025 YTD[30][32]. 4. Model Name: "Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model" - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates macroeconomic, valuation, and sentiment factors to determine the optimal allocation between small-cap and large-cap styles[33][34]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Profit cycle slope (4.17), interest rate cycle level (14.17), and credit cycle changes (-3.33) are analyzed[35]. - **Valuation Factors**: PE and PB valuation spreads (93.88% and 97.67%, respectively) are used to assess relative attractiveness[35]. - **Sentiment Factors**: Turnover and volatility spreads (81.01% and 51.58%, respectively) are considered for sentiment analysis[35]. - Signals are combined to recommend allocations between small-cap and large-cap styles[35]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently outperformed the benchmark since 2012, though it underperformed in 2025 YTD[34][36]. 5. Model Name: "Four-Style Rotation Model" - **Model Construction Idea**: This model integrates the conclusions of the growth-value and small-cap-large-cap rotation models to recommend allocations across four styles: small-cap growth, small-cap value, large-cap growth, and large-cap value[37]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Combines the signals from the growth-value and small-cap-large-cap models to allocate weights across the four styles[37]. - Current recommended allocation: small-cap growth (37.5%), small-cap value (12.5%), large-cap growth (37.5%), and large-cap value (12.5%)[37]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has delivered significant excess returns over the benchmark since 2012, though it underperformed in 2025 YTD[37][38]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. "Three-Dimensional Composite Timing Signal" - Annualized Return: 21.26% - Annualized Volatility: 14.46% - Maximum Drawdown: 12.80% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.2676 - Annualized Excess Return: 13.39%[14] 2. "Short-Term Timing Strategy" - Annualized Return: 17.83% - Annualized Volatility: 15.87% - Maximum Drawdown: 22.44% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.9874 - Annualized Excess Return: 13.24%[22][27] 3. "Growth-Value Style Rotation Model" - Annualized Return: 11.76% - Annualized Volatility: 20.77% - Maximum Drawdown: 43.07% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5438 - Annualized Excess Return: 4.73%[30][32] 4. "Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model" - Annualized Return: 12.45% - Annualized Volatility: 22.65% - Maximum Drawdown: 50.65% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5441 - Annualized Excess Return: 5.21%[34][36] 5. "Four-Style Rotation Model" - Annualized Return: 13.37% - Annualized Volatility: 21.51% - Maximum Drawdown: 47.91% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5988 - Annualized Excess Return: 5.72%[37][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [3] Core Views - The company continues to face external demand pressures, but is actively pursuing product and channel transformations, including the launch of several new products and partnerships with emerging channels such as Sam's Club and Hema [7][8] - The revenue decline in the core market has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, and the expansion into new markets is showing gradual results [7] - The company is expected to stabilize its profit margins in the second half of 2025 after experiencing increased depreciation and advertising costs due to new project launches [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.0%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 120 million yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 23.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.8%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to decline from 67.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 55.21 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.3% [2][15] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 574 million yuan in 2023 to 459 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.1% [2][15] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.29 yuan for both 2025 and 2026 [7][15] Market Position and Valuation - The company has a total market capitalization of 8.8 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 times for 2025 [3][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 8.5% [3] - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 27.5% [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that there are signs of accelerated inflow of resident funds into the market, driven by a combination of improved market liquidity and a shift in deposit behavior towards non-bank financial institutions [2][4][17]. - The overall A-share valuation level has increased, with the Wind All A Index PE (TTM) rising to 16.62, which is at the 63.0% historical percentile [3]. - The market is currently characterized by a strong preference for technology growth and small-cap styles, with the ChiNext 200 and the ChiNext Index leading in performance [6][36]. Financial Data Summary - In July, the new social financing (社融) increased by 1.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 361.3 billion yuan, while RMB loans decreased by 500 billion yuan, reflecting a weak demand for credit in the real economy [7][9]. - The M1 growth rate rose from 4.6% to 5.6%, while the M2-M1 gap narrowed, indicating a shift of deposits from residents to non-bank sectors [12][17]. - Resident deposits decreased by 780 billion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, highlighting a clear trend of funds moving towards non-bank financial institutions [5][12]. Market Style and Trends - The current market style is dominated by technology growth and small-cap stocks, with the ChiNext 200 and ChiNext Index showing significant gains [36][40]. - The report notes that the inflow of funds from private equity, margin financing, and active retail investors has played a crucial role in driving market performance [35][39]. - The report emphasizes that the active participation of thematic ETFs has further reinforced the structural market trends, contributing to the overall positive market sentiment [28][35]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential investment opportunities in the marine economy, particularly in emerging industries such as offshore wind power and marine biomedicine, as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. - The active performance of private equity funds and the increase in personal investor accounts suggest a growing interest in equity markets, which may lead to further investment opportunities [23][25]. - The report indicates that the strong performance of active equity funds, which have outperformed major indices, signals a favorable environment for equity investments [18][19].

Domestic Policy Topics: Consumer Subsidy Policy Implementation - The consumer subsidy policy was implemented on August 12, with the issuance of the "Personal Consumption Loan Financial Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" and the "Service Industry Operating Entity Loan Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" [7][9] - This marks the first time the central government has provided subsidies for personal consumption loans, with the subsidy rate slightly lower than current local city policies [9][12] - The policy aims to stimulate consumption and enhance market vitality by leveraging public funds to guide more financial resources into the consumption sector [9][12] Domestic Policy Topics: Progress in Addressing "Involution" - Recent developments in addressing "involution" have been noted in five sectors: lithium, coke, energy storage, aerospace, and photovoltaics [7][13] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium division issued a proposal to resist vicious competition and promote healthy development in the lithium industry [13][14] - In the coke sector, limited production plans were announced in Shandong, with a 30% reduction from August 16 to 25 and a 50% reduction from August 26 to September 3 [13][14] - The energy storage industry is also pushing for "anti-involution" measures, with a proposal from the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association [13][14] - The China Air Transport Association released a self-discipline convention to enhance industry self-regulation and maintain market order [13][14] Overseas Policy Topics: Alaska Summit Key Points - The Alaska summit between US and Russian leaders lasted approximately 2 hours and 40 minutes, with no agreements reached but expectations for future meetings [15][16] - The summit highlighted sharp strategic differences among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, with Putin gaining a perceived diplomatic victory [15][16] - Trump indicated plans to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors, suggesting rates of 200% to 300% [17][18] Weekly Industry Policy Review (August 10-17) - Focus areas include artificial intelligence, data elements, low-altitude economy, and marine economy [19][20] - The Zhejiang Provincial Health Commission and other departments issued a plan to accelerate the development of "AI + healthcare" from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing data resource aggregation and the establishment of a health data standard system [19][20] - Beijing's government released implementation opinions to enhance the development and utilization of public data resources, proposing 20 measures to stimulate market innovation [20] - Guizhou Province introduced a three-year action plan for the high-quality development of the low-altitude economy, aiming for a well-established management system by 2027 [21] - National authorities plan to promote the construction of marine economic development demonstration zones and support the development of marine industries [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the need to prevent fund circularity and adjust long-term bonds, indicating a cautious outlook on the banking sector's operational environment due to weak credit demand and downward pressure on loan rates [11][12]. - The report notes that the weighted average loan rate in June was 3.29%, down 15 basis points from March, with the general loan rate at 3.69%, down 6 basis points [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving the efficiency of fund utilization and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [11]. Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 11,078.3 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 10,489.1 billion [1]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -6.5%, 11.6%, and 33.3% respectively, while the relative performance is -11.1%, 4.9%, and 7.6% [3]. Monetary Policy Dynamics - The People's Bank of China conducted 7,118 billion in 7-day reverse repos, with an operation rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,149 billion [13][32]. - A total of 5,000 billion in buyout reverse repos was announced, with a 6-month term, contributing to a stable funding environment [13][32]. Treasury Bond Rates - The report indicates that the 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bond rates were 1.37%, 1.41%, 1.59%, 1.75%, and 2.05% respectively, with notable fluctuations in response to market conditions [14]. Fiscal Dynamics - Government bond net financing for the week was 4,284 billion, with expectations of a net payment of approximately 2,956 billion in the next period [14]. Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 7,728 billion, with a net financing of -1,323 billion, indicating a decrease in demand [15].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 08 月 17 日 如何理解"普特会"？ ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：俄美首脑会晤；中美再次暂停实施相互 24%关税 90 天。 未来一周：美乌会谈；美国关税持续拉扯；地缘冲突。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 定期报告 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）俄美首脑会晤于阿拉斯加，双方表示取得进展，尚未达成协议；特朗普 表示将暂时搁置对俄实施进一步制裁或其他严重后果的计划。本周俄罗 斯 RTS 指数继续上涨。会谈没有达成协议符合预期，此次会谈更多的是 启动一个进程，关注后续俄乌美欧各方沟通。无论是否就俄乌冲突达成 协议，俄美领导人会晤本身对于俄罗斯属于重要外交胜利。相较于未达 成的和平协议，"普特会"对俄美两国关系的意义或更为重要，关注后 续俄美互动和大国关系。 2）美国关税：8 月 12 日中美宣布再次暂停实施相互 24%关税 90 天；当地 时间 8 月 15 日美国宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收 50%关税的范围，8 月 18 日生效；特朗普称两周内宣布半导体关税，税率或达 300%。日 本、越南关税 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance relative to market benchmarks [2][6][7]. Core Insights - The insurance industry's fund utilization scale surpassed 36 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net increase of over 1.3 trillion yuan in the quarter, reflecting strong growth driven by premium income and asset value appreciation [5][7]. - The allocation structure of insurance funds has become more pronounced, with bond and stock proportions reaching new highs, indicating a shift towards a "barbell" investment strategy [5][7]. - Regulatory measures have accelerated the entry of insurance funds into the stock market, with the stock allocation reaching a record high of 8.8% by the end of Q2 2025, supported by policy adjustments aimed at promoting long-term investments [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Scale - As of Q2 2025, the total market capitalization of stocks held by insurance companies is approximately 670.62 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 641.38 billion yuan [2]. Fund Utilization - The total fund utilization balance for insurance companies reached 36.23 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, marking an 8.9% increase year-to-date and a 3.7% increase from Q1 2025 [5][7]. - The bond allocation exceeded 51%, the highest level in recent years, while bank deposits and non-standard investments were reduced [5][7]. Equity Investment - The stock balance for life and property insurance companies reached 3.07 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 640.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to equity investments [5][7]. - The report highlights a resurgence in insurance companies' stake acquisitions in peer firms, with 27 instances recorded in 2025, reflecting confidence in the sector's recovery and long-term value [5][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests individual stock recommendations including China Pacific Insurance, New China Life Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, while also advising attention to China Life Insurance, China Taiping Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance for their long-term investment value [7].