证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 16 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 16 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商零售 汤秀洁】周大福（01929）公司点评：重整旗鼓，龙头新生——20250414 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：4 月 15 日上证指数上涨 0.15%，沪深 300 上涨 0.06%，科创 50 下跌 0.78%，中证 1000 下跌 0.41%，创业板 指下跌 0.13%，恒生指数上涨 0.23%。 行业：4 月 15 日表现最好的行业分别是美容护理（+2.27%)、银行（+1.5%)、家用电器（+1.35%)、纺织服饰（+1.16%)、 传媒（+0.96%)，表现最差的行业分别是国防军工（-1.78%)、商贸零售（-1.37%)、电子（-0.97%)、钢铁（-0.94%)、 社会服务（-0.91%)。 资金：4 月 15 日全 A 总成交额为 11102 亿元，南下资金 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 医疗美容 ❑ 24 年年报：业绩符合预期，未来 3 年高分红+股权激励彰显发展信心。 24 年业绩符合预期。24 年收入/净利润 25.7/2.5 亿元，同比+19.9%/+9.7%。 24 年 毛利率/净利率 46.3%/9.8%，同比+0.7pp/-0.9pp。销售/管理/研发费用率同比 +0.3pp/+0.2pp/-0.2pp。 公司承诺，自公告日起未来三个完整财年期间将不少于 50%的归母净利用于分 红，也将充分利用管理层股权激励计划，考核指标涵盖未来三年营业收入及利润 提升。 ❑ 基石业务内生稳健增长，医美新客拓展持续，女性特护超预期增长。 24 年收入拆分：生美及保健 56%+医美 36%+亚健康医疗服务 8%。 1） 生美及保健：基石业务内生稳健增长，加码身体护理与智能美养。 24 年收入 14.4 亿（+21%，括号内为同比，下同），毛利率 40.7%（+1.1pcts），具 体来看：①量为主要驱动，全年到店人次/活跃会员人数同增 19.5%/45%。②直营 /加盟收入同增 21%/21%，门店数量分别为 239/276 家。③公司于 24H2 收购奈瑞 儿，新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.515 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 548 million yuan, up 33.08% year-on-year [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of over 80% for 2024, with an expected dividend yield of 5.7% for 2025 [4] - The railway investment in 2025 is expected to remain high, with a total fixed asset investment of 850.6 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 11.26% year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the train control system reached 886 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 25.89% year-on-year [2] - The railway security segment generated 238 million yuan in revenue, up 25.64% year-on-year [2] - The high-speed rail operation monitoring segment saw a revenue increase of 39.79%, totaling 358 million yuan [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 680 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 980 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 22%, and 18% [5] - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14, 12, and 10 respectively [5] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 11.8828 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 453 million yuan, which is approximately 83% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 80% during its mature development phase without significant capital expenditures [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's main business in baby pants has stabilized and is showing signs of recovery, while the acquisition of the Jieting brand is expected to drive growth [5] - The company reported a revenue of 2.93 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but a net profit of 390 million yuan, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year [1][11] - The company continues to provide high dividend returns to shareholders, proposing a cash dividend of 8.5 yuan per 10 shares and a capital reserve transfer of 4 shares for every 10 shares [1] Revenue Breakdown - Baby hygiene products generated 2.06 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, up 4.3% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 3.04 billion pieces, an increase of 12.3% [2] - Adult hygiene products saw revenue of 550 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while other products experienced significant growth with a revenue of 230 million yuan, up 57.6% [2] - Domestic revenue in the second half of 2024 was 1.27 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 260 million yuan, a substantial increase of 67.2% [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 27.91%, an increase of 0.97% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced material costs from increased in-house production [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.2%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant decline in the fourth quarter [3] - Sales expenses increased significantly due to enhanced marketing for the company's own brands, with online promotion costs rising by 88.5% year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The acquisition of Hubei Sibao Care is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance, with Sibao achieving a revenue of 680 million yuan in 2024, up 26% year-on-year [5] - The company is expanding production capacity and has acquired production lines from major brands to improve its market share [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.74 billion, 4.20 billion, and 4.66 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 486 million, 547 million, and 617 million yuan [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 177 million yuan, down 3.98% year-on-year [1] - The large clinical business segment generated revenue of 512 million yuan in 2024, showing a robust growth of 41.19% year-on-year, indicating a strong support for the company's service sector in the next three years [2] - The self-developed new drug pipeline is progressing well, with key products entering various clinical phases, suggesting that 2025 may be a year of significant new drug transformations for the company [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 50.18%, a decrease of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, but is expected to stabilize as the market competition in pharmaceutical research stabilizes [4] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 32 million yuan, a significant decrease, but the company is expected to recover quickly due to its strategic focus on serving large pharmaceutical clients [5] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 1.280 billion, 1.501 billion, and 1.756 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 18.73%, 17.19%, and 17.05% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan and a net profit of 177 million yuan, with a notable decline in Q4 revenue to 162 million yuan, down 32.62% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 50.18%, reflecting a decrease due to increased competition in the generic drug market and a higher proportion of lower-margin clinical service revenue [4] Growth Potential - The large clinical business segment is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with a revenue increase of 41.19% in 2024 [2] - The self-developed new drug pipeline is advancing, with multiple products entering clinical trials, indicating potential for significant revenue contributions starting in 2025 [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company’s R&D expense ratio increased to 15.94% in 2024, driven by accelerated clinical progress of core self-developed pipelines [4] - Operating cash flow was reported at 32 million yuan, reflecting challenges in accounts receivable turnover, but a recovery is anticipated [5] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.280 billion, 1.501 billion, and 1.756 billion yuan, with net profits expected to grow to 179 million, 216 million, and 262 million yuan respectively [6]

❑ Q4 营收利润实现稳定增长 全年实现营收 10.44 亿元，同比增长 31.49%，实现归母净利润 3.62 亿元，同比 增长 22.22%，实现扣非归母净利润 3.41 亿元，同比增长 24.14%。全年毛利率达 89.63%，略微下降。费用率方面，销售、管理、研发费用率分别为 32.03%、 9.16%、19.79%，同比变化 -4.38、-0.23、-1.00 pct。全年经营性现金流为 4.73 亿 元，同比增长 36.95%。 分业务来看，软件产品使用授权营收达 8.94 亿元，同比增长 22.79%，毛利率达 99.69%，数据及行业解决方案营收达 0.98 亿元，同比增长 204.51%，运维服务营 业收入达 0.38 亿元，同比增长 38.50%。数据库一体机销售达 0.13 亿元，同比增 长 179.59%。 公司营收主要增长原因在于 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 软件开发 达梦数据(688692) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 行业信创打开公司营收、利润增长新格局 ——达梦数据 2024 年度点评报告 投资要点 Q4 实现营收 4.15 亿元，同比增长 19.34%，实 ...

虹软科技(688088) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 整体盈利能力大幅提升，商拍+AI 眼镜业务有望打开空间 ——虹软科技 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 4 月 14 日，公司披露 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报。2024 年公司实现营业总收入 8.15 亿元（YoY +21.62%），实现归母净利润 1.77 亿元（YoY +99.67%），公司经 营效率大幅优化下盈利能力大幅提升。2025 年公司在智能手机、智能汽车业务 稳步增长的基础上，有望加速推进 AI 眼镜、AI 商拍业务的商业化落地，打开 新成长极。 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | IT 服务Ⅱ ❑ 2024 年公司主营业务良好增长，盈利能力大幅提升 2024 年全年，公司实现营业总收入 8.15 亿元（YoY +21.62%），实现归母净利润 1.77 亿元（YoY +99.67%），扣非后归母净利润为 1.56 亿元（YoY+128.93%），盈 利能力大幅提升。公司全年整体毛利率为 90.43%（YoY +0.08pct），销售/管理/研 发费用率分别为 16.29%/10.49%/48.81%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the controlled nuclear fusion industry [5]. Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as the ideal ultimate energy source for humanity, characterized by its abundant resources, cleanliness, safety, and efficiency [1][13]. - The industry is approaching a critical point, with engineering feasibility verification underway, and significant advancements expected in the near future [2][45]. - The global market for nuclear fusion equipment is projected to reach trillions, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% from 2023 to 2035 [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Controlled Nuclear Fusion: The Ideal Ultimate Energy - Nuclear fusion involves the combination of two lighter atomic nuclei into a heavier nucleus, releasing substantial energy [1]. - Controlled nuclear fusion aims to harness this process under artificial conditions, making it a clean and sustainable energy source [1][13]. - The primary methods for achieving controlled fusion include magnetic confinement, inertial confinement, and gravitational confinement, with magnetic confinement being the focus of current research [1][19]. 2. Approaching Technical Singularity - The feasibility of nuclear fusion has been validated since the 1990s, and the industry is now in the engineering verification phase [2]. - If the engineering Q value exceeds 1, energy gain is possible; a Q value greater than 30 could lead to commercialization [2]. - Domestic and international efforts are catalyzing the industry, with significant milestones achieved recently, such as the "Circulation Three" project reaching high temperatures [2][45]. 3. Market Space Estimation - The global nuclear fusion equipment market is expected to see new additions worth trillions from 2031 to 2035, with a CAGR of about 23% [3][6]. - The domestic market for fusion equipment is projected to exceed hundreds of billions, with numerous projects planned and clear timelines established [2][3]. 4. Key Companies to Watch - The report highlights several key players in the midstream equipment sector, including: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics (high-temperature superconducting magnets) - Guoguang Electric (specialized microwave devices) - Antai Technology (divertors) [3][4]. - Upstream material suppliers such as Western Superconducting, Yongding Co., and Jingda Co. are also noted for their potential benefits from the industry [3].

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 关税 2.0 对产业债主体影响几何？ 核心观点 本文使用海外营收占比和美元存款/货币资金两种指标，并结合公开信息大致推测对美 出口较多的行业的产业主体对美出口敞口。从宏观行业和微观主体两个角度看，我们 认为关税政策对产业债信用风险的影响可控。 ❑ 我国对美出口情况概览 美国虽为我国第一大出口国，但我国对美贸易依赖度正逐渐下降，自从 2018 年贸易战 1.0 发生 以来，我国对美出口金额占比由 20%降至当前的 13%。不过，2018 年贸易战 1.0 爆发后关税清 单内商品对美出口显著下降，此次"全覆盖关税"作用下对美出口后续走势可能与此前类似。将 各类中国出口美国商品的 HS 编码转化为所属申万行业，对美出口金额较高的行业依次是电子、 轻工制造、电力设备、纺织服装、基础化工和汽车，该六大行业合计占对美出口总额的 80%以 上。 ❑ 如何衡量产业债发行主体出口敞口？ 美国对华加征关税将抬升出口成本，削弱企业盈利能力，出口型行业信用风险也可能随之上升。 但是，对美出口金额较高的行业产业债余额仅占全部 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 15 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺/姬新悦】中大力德（002896）公司深度：精密减速器厚积薄发，卡位人形机器 人优质赛道——20250413 大势：4 月 14 日上证指数上涨 0.76%，沪深 300 上涨 0.23%，科创 50 上涨 0.25%，中证 1000 上涨 1.3%，创业板 指上涨 0.34%，恒生指数上涨 2.4%。 行业：4 月 14 日表现最好的行业分别是纺织服饰（+2.56%)、煤炭（+2.5%)、有色金属（+2.46%)、商贸零售（+2.37%)、 社会服务（+2.09%)，表现最差的行业分别是家用电器（-0.6%)、食品饮料（-0.36%)、房地产（+0.2%)、建筑材料 （+0.28%)、国防军工（+0.32%)。 资金：4 月 14 日全 A 总成交额为 13127 亿元，南下资金净流入 57.80 亿港元。 浙商早 ...