证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 公用事业 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地 ...

Market Outlook - The "spring offensive" initiated on January 13, 2025, is expected to continue, targeting the upper range of the previous market fluctuations, with a potential decisive moment in May[4] - The GDP growth target remains around 5%, indicating a proactive and pragmatic macro policy approach[12] Style Rotation - Mid-cap value and growth stocks are leading in market capitalization style, indicating a concentration in mid-cap stocks[5] - The valuation style is expected to be balanced, with a shift towards value stocks as growth style advantages may weaken[5] Industry Focus - Key sectors to watch include food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, real estate, and new energy, benefiting from policy guidance and significant calendar effects[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected international geopolitical tensions and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[7] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes a focus on mid-cap stocks and consumer sectors, with a balanced valuation approach[5][6]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 公用事业 本周，公用事业板块指数上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 11，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.61%；本周，环保板块指数上涨 2.53%，涨跌幅在 32 个 申万一级行业中排名第 9，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.94%。截至 2025 年 3 月 7 日，公 用事业（申万）PE（TTM）为 16.87 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍；环保（申万）PE （TTM）为 21.60 倍，PB（LF）为 1.48 倍。 ❑ 行业重要动态 ❑ 核心观点与投资建议 ❑ 公用事业行业，本周重点关注个股组合：佛燃能源+东方电子+中国核电。 绿电直供凸显环境属性，清洁能源迎来专项资金 ——环保与公用事业行业周报 投资要点 ❑ 行情回顾 A.绿电运营板块。去年以来政策推动典型高耗能行业参与绿证绿电交易，绿电环 境价值有望进一步兑现；此外新能源全面入市有望带动电价下行，叠加电网发债 持续推进下绿电企业国补欠补问题有望改善。考虑到当前绿电估值已处价值洼地， 尤其是港股绿电普遍处于破净状态，后续可进一步关注新能源大基地项目落地， 标的包括受益于福建海风竞配落地的中闽能源（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $8.2 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $390 million, up 43% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.6 billion in revenue, an 11% increase year-on-year, while the retail segment saw a revenue decline of 10% to $2.6 billion [1][5] - Manufacturing business orders are robust, with a significant increase in shipments and a narrowing decline in average selling price (ASP). The ASP for 2024 was $20.3, down 5% year-on-year, while shipments reached 260 million pairs, a 17% increase [2][5] - The retail business is showing signs of improvement, with a smaller revenue decline in Q4 and effective cost management strategies leading to stable profit margins. Online retail revenue grew by 16%, with Douyin sales doubling year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of $8.2 billion and a net profit of $390 million. The manufacturing segment contributed $5.6 billion, while the retail segment accounted for $2.6 billion [1][5] - In Q4 alone, the company reported a revenue of $2.1 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year, but net profit dropped by 52% to $70 million due to increased operational costs and tax disputes [1][3] Manufacturing Business - The manufacturing segment's revenue for 2024 was $5.6 billion, with a shipment volume of 260 million pairs, reflecting a 17% increase. The ASP remained stable at $20.3 [2][5] - The manufacturing gross margin was 19.9%, with a capacity utilization rate of 93%. However, Q4 gross margin was pressured due to increased overtime and outsourcing costs, alongside a tax dispute in Indonesia [3][5] Retail Business - The retail segment's revenue for 2024 was $2.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, but the decline in Q4 was only 2%. The company managed to improve its gross margin to 34.2% through effective discount management [4][5] - The number of offline stores decreased to 3,448, with same-store sales down 17.1%. However, online sales showed resilience, particularly on platforms like Douyin [4][5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.4 billion, $9.0 billion, and $9.6 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $454 million, $498 million, and $529 million [5][12] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 6.0, 5.5, and 5.2, with a dividend payout ratio of 69% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 10% [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual performance for 2024, with total revenue of 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion, also up 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1][6] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. The footwear segment generated revenue of 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while the apparel segment reached 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's apparel segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The footwear category contributed 1.1 billion, up 17.5%, while the apparel category reached 1.21 billion, up 22.6% [3][4] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, accounting for 25.9% of total sales. The company ranked among the top five footwear brands during major sales events [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth of 13% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 11% in 2027, reaching 11.4 billion, 12.7 billion, and 14.2 billion respectively. Net profit is expected to grow by 14% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027, reaching 1.38 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.65 billion respectively [6][12] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.9, 6.1, and 5.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for a leading player in the sportswear market [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company reported a strong annual growth for 2024, with total revenue reaching 10.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.15 billion, also up by 19.5%. The cash dividend payout ratio increased to 45% [1] - The main brand, 361°, continues to lead the adult apparel segment with double-digit growth, driven primarily by volume increases. Footwear revenue reached 4.29 billion, up 22.1%, while apparel revenue was 3.09 billion, up 15.1% [2] - The children's clothing segment also showed strong growth, with revenue of 2.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. Footwear sales in this category reached 1.1 billion, up 17.5% [3] - E-commerce sales remained active, totaling 2.61 billion, a 12.2% increase, with a significant contribution from differentiated products [5] - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 13% in 2025, reaching 11.4 billion, and net profit growth of 14% to 1.38 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 6.9 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 10,073.5 million, a 19.59% increase, and net profit of 1,148.6 million, a 19.47% increase. The projected revenue for 2025 is 11,405.9 million, with a growth rate of 13.23% [12] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 41.53%, with net profit margin at 11.84% [13] Product and Market Development - The company continues to innovate with new product lines, including advanced technology footwear and expanding its children's product line to cover ages up to 16 [4] - The company has increased its offline retail presence, with 5,750 stores and a focus on enhancing customer experience through new retail formats [2] E-commerce and Sales Channels - E-commerce sales accounted for 25.9% of total sales, with significant growth during promotional events, such as a 99% increase during the 618 shopping festival [5] Future Outlook - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 12,737.8 million in 2026 and 14,191.4 million in 2027, alongside net profits of 1,470.7 million and 1,646.9 million respectively [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of HKD 135.9 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.8%. The Non-GAAP net profit reached HKD 57.7 billion, up 26.2% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue surged by 86.8% year-on-year and 29.0% quarter-on-quarter, while Non-GAAP net profit doubled, increasing by 105.4% year-on-year and 39.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, brokerage commission and fee income reached HKD 20.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 127.6%, driven by a 201.7% rise in transaction volume to HKD 2.89 trillion. The U.S. stock trading volume was HKD 2.08 trillion. Interest income also grew by 51.8% to HKD 20.2 billion, with margin financing balance increasing by 53.7% to HKD 50.9 billion [2]. Customer Acquisition and Marketing - The company saw a significant increase in marketing expenses, with sales expenses rising by 154.2% to HKD 4.64 billion, attributed to a substantial growth in new deposit customers. The total number of paid customers grew by 41% to 2.4 million, with new paid users in Q4 2024 increasing by 39% year-on-year [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company anticipates Non-GAAP net profit growth rates of 22%, 21%, and 17% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The expected earnings per ADS in USD are projected to be 6.50, 7.88, and 9.25 for the same years, corresponding to P/E ratios of 16.54, 13.65, and 11.63 [5][7].

投资要点 证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 16 日 中长期资金助力价值发现 ——瑞众人寿举牌中信银行点评 ❑ 基本面：盈利差距收窄 中信银行当前盈利能力领先股份行平均，但较头部银行招行仍有差距。展望未 来，中信银行和头部银行的盈利能力差距有望收窄，驱动估值差距收窄。中信 银行 24Q1-3 ROE 10.14%，优于其他股份行平均的 9.95%，但较头部股份行招行 的 15.38%仍有差距。分部拆解后，中信银行盈利能力劣势主要来自零售业务， 而在对公领域有较大优势。展望未来，中信较招行的盈利能力差距有望收窄，主 要归因零售、对公业务的盈利能力差行业性收窄、中信银行加杠杆能力打开。 （1）零售和对公的盈利差距将收窄：①零售业务：投放利率下行+减值压力上 行，零售综合盈利能力下降。②对公业务：行业"反内卷"带来利差水平企稳、 减值压力保持平稳，对公综合盈利能力平稳。我们测算当前新发放按揭贷款的经 济利润约在 53bp，而新发放 10 年期企业贷款的经济利润约在 78~114bp。中信银 行对公业务能力突出（24H1 中信银行对公分部税前 R ...

唐德影视(300426) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 15 日 定增落地，公司进入全新发展阶段 ——唐德影视深度报告 投资要点 推荐理由 公司近期基本完成定增相关事宜，流动资金得到补充，公司进入全新发展阶段。 未来公司在内容端布局的广度和深度有望持续超市场预期。 超预期点一：定增进度超预期 公司定增虽启动时间较早，但近期落地进度超市场预期，2025 年 2 月 27 日公司 公布了定增上市公告书及最新的股权结构，浙江广电集团旗下的浙江易通（全资 孙公司）成为最大股东。公司定增启动于 2020 年，2020-2024 年期间进展较为缓 慢，自 2024 年 7 月起明显提速，至 2025 年 2 月底基本落地仅 8 个月时间。定增 价格由 2020 年的 3.94 元/股调整为目前的 8.19 元/股。当前时间点，在定增审核 的审慎性提升的大环境下，各行业定增落地进度明显降低，截至 2024 年 12 月， A 股上市定增 144 个，同比下滑 56.0%；募资 1728 亿元，同比下滑 70.1%，在这 样的环境下，公司定增的落地进度一定程度显示了浙江国资的重视，同时同业竞 争问题未来也有望得到解决。 ...

证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 "行情扩散"权重突破，调结构、待补涨 ——A 股市场运行周报第 32 期 核心观点 本周市场震荡上行，主要宽基指数走势分化，大消费、大金融普遍上涨，TMT 板块攻 势暂缓，行情在政策驱动下明显扩散，从前期"中国科技重估"逐渐转变为"中国资 产重估"。展望后市，我们预计权重指数会继续震荡上行、引领市场整体向上，目标直 指此前大盘区间震荡的上沿（即去年 11 月 8 日、12 月 10 日上证指数两个阶段性高点 所在），而成长指数则大概率会在权重呵护下进行"强式整理"。配置方面，基于"权 重指数突破后引领市场前行，成长指数受呵护下震荡整理"的判断，我们建议投资者 继续调整持仓结构，按照"高切低"原则，将前期涨幅过大的部分科技板块持仓，切 换至今年以来涨幅相对落后的大金融、大消费相关板块。此外，由于权重指数攻势明 显超出预期，市场很难给出较为舒服的"回调上车位"，因此建议投资者在大金融、大 消费板块中选择年内涨幅相对落后的标的，在指数快速整理时伺机增配。 ❑ 本周（2025-03-10 至 2025-03-14）行情概况 （1）主要指数：主要宽基指数走势分化。（2）板 ...