jiang 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 银行 投放减弱，资金缓和 ——2 月信贷社融点评 投资要点 （1）居民端，消费复苏或不及预期，零售贷款 1-2 月累计同比少增。如果剔除春 节假期错位影响，我们重点观察 1-2 月累计数据。2025 年 1-2 月居民贷款新增 547 亿，同比少增 3347 亿。其中，居民短期贷款负增 3238 亿，同比多减 1898 亿；居 民中长贷新增 3785 亿，同比少增 1449 亿。我们猜测按揭贷款或呈现回暖态势， 但个人消费贷款和个人经营性贷款等产品的信贷需求或不及去年同期。2 月 TOP100 房企实现销售金额 1881 亿元，同比增长 1.2%。地产市场延续止跌回稳的 态势。 （2）企业端，受提前还款影响，长贷大幅同比少增。2025 年 2 月企业短期贷款 新增 3300 亿，同比少增 2000 亿；企业长贷新增 5400 亿，同比少增 7500 亿。① 年内债务置换开启。1-2 月地方政府再融资专项债累计净融资 8151 亿，同比多增 8148 亿。2025 年置换节奏显著提前，地方政府隐债置换可能带动新一轮的公司长 贷提前还款。预计 2025 年置换债发行节奏 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [7][26]. Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, and the bad debt generation has shown a downward turning point [1]. - The bank's 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.2% year-on-year, with revenue down by 10.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 was 1.06%, remaining stable compared to the end of Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [1][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.2%, and revenue fell by 10.9%, but the decline rate has improved by 1.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Other non-interest income grew significantly by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bond market in Q4 [2]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) for Q4 2024 was 1.70%, a significant decrease of 17 basis points from Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yields [3]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio, attention rate, and overdue rate at the end of Q4 2024 were stable at 1.06%, 1.93%, and 1.52%, respectively, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4][3]. - The true NPL generation rate improved by 12 basis points to 2.53%, suggesting that the pressure on bad debt generation has peaked and is now declining [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by -1.11%, 5.07%, and 5.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 23.37, 24.97, and 26.69 yuan [5]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.51, 0.48, and 0.45 for the years 2025-2027, with a target price of 14.00 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 17% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $6.836 billion, an increase of 84% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. The after-tax operating profit was $6.605 billion, and the new business value (NBV) reached $4.712 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% and 18% respectively. The embedded value (EV) stood at $69.035 billion, up 4% from the beginning of the year. The final dividend was HK$1.31 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, with total dividends for the year rising by 9%, in line with expectations [1][4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - AIA Group's NBV growth rate for the full year decreased by 7 percentage points to 18% compared to the first half of 2024, but the absolute growth remains robust. The main driver was the new annualized premium income, which reached $8.606 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year. The new business profitability also improved, with the value rate increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [2][3] Regional Performance - In 2024, the NBV growth rates for different regions were as follows: Hong Kong +23%, Mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18%. Hong Kong led with an NBV of $1.764 billion, achieving a 23% year-on-year growth, supported by strong growth in local and visitor business. Mainland China also saw a 20% increase in NBV, with new annualized premiums growing by 10% and the value rate rising by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [3] Investment Performance - By the end of 2024, AIA Group's total investment scale reached $288.621 billion, a 7.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The net and total investment yields for non-participating and surplus assets were 4.3% and 4.8%, respectively, remaining stable year-on-year. The net investment performance amounted to $3.610 billion, a significant increase of 133.4%, primarily due to reduced financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4] Shareholder Returns - AIA Group announced a new share buyback program of $1.6 billion, slightly increasing its shareholder return strategy. The expected completion of this buyback is within 2025, and based on the company's market capitalization at the end of the previous year, the dividend yield is approximately 6%, indicating an attractive return for shareholders [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the strong growth momentum in AIA Group's diversified business markets and the expected opening of new branches, the profit forecast has been revised upward. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.2%, 25.0%, and 10.4% respectively. The target price is set at HK$83.3, corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 1.5 times for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $6.836 billion, an increase of 84% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. The after-tax operating profit was $6.605 billion, and the new business value (NBV) reached $4.712 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% and 18% respectively. The embedded value (EV) stood at $69.035 billion, up 4% from the beginning of the year. The final dividend was HK$1.31 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, with the total annual dividend rising by 9%, aligning with expectations [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - AIA Group's total investment scale reached $288.621 billion by the end of 2024, marking a 7.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The net and total investment yield for non-participating and surplus assets remained stable at 4.3% and 4.8% respectively, with net investment performance increasing by 133.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4][6]. Liability Side - The NBV growth rate for 2024 was 18%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, but still indicating robust growth. The main driver was the new annualized premium income, which reached $8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year. The new business profitability also improved, with the value rate increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [2][3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the NBV growth rates for various regions were as follows: Hong Kong +23%, Mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18%. Hong Kong led with an NBV of $1.764 billion, benefiting from strong growth in local and visitor business [3]. Shareholder Returns - AIA Group announced a new share buyback program of $1.6 billion, slightly increasing its shareholder return strategy. The expected completion of this buyback is within 2025, and the total shareholder return, including dividends and buybacks, is estimated to yield a dividend yield of approximately 6% based on the company's market capitalization at the end of the previous year [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the strong growth momentum in diverse business markets and the expected opening of new branches, the profit forecast for AIA Group has been revised upward. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.2%, 25.0%, and 10.4% respectively. The target price is set at HK$83.3, corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 1.5 times for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company has shown significant sales growth, with a total sales amount of 251.0 billion yuan in January-February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [1] - The company ranked third in total sales amount in the industry, outperforming the average performance of the top 100 real estate companies [1] - The company has actively acquired land in key cities, achieving a top position in land acquisition amount with 317.7 billion yuan in January-February 2025 [2] - The company has reported steady growth in recurring income, with a total of 83.9 billion yuan in recurring business income for January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [3] - The company is expected to maintain strong earnings growth, with an estimated EPS of 3.73 yuan for 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In January-February 2025, the company achieved a sales area of 1.073 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with an average sales price of 23,392 yuan per square meter, up 12% year-on-year [1] - In February alone, the sales amount reached 135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [1] Land Acquisition - The company acquired land worth 317.7 billion yuan, with a new value of 620.7 billion yuan, leading the land acquisition rankings [2] - Notable acquisitions include a land parcel in Shanghai for 50.9 billion yuan and a new land price record in Hangzhou at 50,683 yuan per square meter [2] Recurring Income - The company's recurring business income for January-February 2025 was 54.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [3] - The growth in recurring income is expected to continue with the opening of five new major shopping centers in 2025 [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have a net profit of 28.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.17% [10] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 5.83, indicating a favorable valuation [10]

2 月销售量价齐升，优质资产率先修复 ——华润置地点评报告 事件 2025 年 3 月 13 日，华润置地发布 2025 年 2 月经营数据情况。 投资要点 ❑ 销售额同比高增，印证核心地段核心资产价格率先修复 2025 年 1-2 月，公司累计销售额 251.0 亿元，同比增长 21.8%；销售面积 107.3 万平方米，同比增长 8.7%；销售均价 23392 元/平，同比上涨 12%，与 2024 年销售均价相比上涨 1.5%。2 月单月来看，公司销售额 135 亿元，同比增 长 46.9%；销售面积 58.5 万平，同比增长 28.1%；销售均价 23077 元/平，同 比增长 14.6%。2025 年 1-2 月公司全口径销售金额位列克而瑞排行榜第 3 位， 与 2024 年相比排名保持稳定，公司销售金额同比增幅亮眼，显著优于百强房企 平均表现（百强 2 月增幅 1.2%，1-2 月增幅-1.2%），彰显了公司城市深耕的优 势，我们认为在市场企稳修复期的，公司的销售弹性更加值得关注。 ❑ 经常性收入稳健增长，2 月单月增幅扩大 2025 年 1-2 月公司经常性业务收入 83.9 亿元，同比增长 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Ping An Bank's revenue decline has narrowed, and the bad debt generation has shown a downward turning point [1] - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to decrease by 4.2% year-on-year, with revenue declining by 10.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2024 is 1.06%, remaining stable compared to the end of Q3 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 251% [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, Ping An Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 4.2%, while revenue is expected to decrease by 10.9%, a reduction of 1.6 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Other non-interest income has increased significantly by 68.7% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the bond market in Q4 [2] - The bank's net interest margin for Q4 2024 is 1.70%, a decrease of 17 basis points from Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yields [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio at the end of Q4 2024 are stable at 1.06%, 1.93%, and 1.52%, respectively, indicating an improvement in asset quality [4] - The real non-performing loan generation rate has improved by 12 basis points to 2.53%, suggesting that the pressure on bad debt generation has peaked and is now declining [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 is -1.11%, 5.07%, and 5.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 23.37, 24.97, and 26.69 yuan [5] - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.60x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price [5]

青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 经济大省的成长性城商行 ——青岛银行首次覆盖 投资要点 青岛银行是深耕山东的成长性城商行，化债推动风险评价改善，网点加密和低 不良生成有望支撑较强的盈利增长，有利于青岛银行估值抬升。 公司画像：经济大省成长性城商行 （1）发展：青岛银行由原青岛地区 21 家城市信用社合并组建而成。发展至今， 青岛银行资产规模达到城商行中位水平，具有金租和理财牌照，综合能力强。 （2）区位：青岛银行深耕青岛，覆盖全省。山东经济体量大，青岛经济领航山 东，是青岛银行发展的良好基础。截至 24H1 末，青岛银行有 51%贷款投向青 岛，其余分布在山东其他城市。 （3）管理：①青岛银行股权结构均衡，具有地方国资+优质民企+外资银行的多 元化股权结构。24H1 财报披露，青岛银行前三大股东分别是海尔集团、意大利 联合圣保罗银行、青岛国信，分别持有青岛银行 18.14%、17.50%、14.99%的股 份（合并子公司口径）。②管理团队金融经验丰富，以董事长景在伦先生、行长 吴显明先生为代表的核心管理团队，银行管理经验丰富，专业能力突出。 青岛银行不良表现处于同业中等水 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Bank is "Buy" with a target price of HK$4.15 per share, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of HK$3.27 [4][11]. Core Views - Qingdao Bank is characterized as a growth-oriented city commercial bank deeply rooted in Shandong, with debt reduction efforts expected to improve risk assessments and support strong profit growth [1][10]. - The bank's asset quality is on an improving trend, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.17% as of Q3 2024, slightly above the industry average, but showing a significant decrease from previous years [3][9]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) has been gradually improving, driven by an expansion in interest margins and operational cost reductions [2][33]. Company Profile - Qingdao Bank was established in 1996 through the merger of 21 urban credit cooperatives and has grown to a total asset size of approximately 669 billion yuan, positioning it at the median level among city commercial banks [19][22]. - The bank has a diversified ownership structure, with major shareholders including Haier Group and the Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo, which enhances its governance and operational capabilities [28][29]. Financial Analysis - Since 2021, Qingdao Bank's net interest margin has improved, reaching 1.77% in H1 2024, which is 15 basis points higher than the average for city commercial banks [35][37]. - The bank's asset yield was 4.07% in H1 2024, outperforming the average by 4 basis points, while its cost of liabilities was 2.25%, 6 basis points higher than the average [35][37]. - The bank's NPL generation rate has decreased significantly, with a TTM NPL generation rate of 0.64% in H1 2024, down 172 basis points from 2019 [3][10]. Investment Logic - The debt reduction policy is expected to enhance regional risk assessments, with limited impact on credit growth and a favorable outlook for interest margins [10][11]. - The expansion of branch networks has been a key driver for sustained growth, with the number of branches increasing to 196 by H1 2024, providing significant room for loan growth [11][22]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected growth rates for Qingdao Bank's net profit from 2024 to 2026 are 20.16%, 10.38%, and 11.36%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 6.45, 6.97, and 7.67 yuan [11][13].

青岛银行(002948) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 经济大省的成长性城商行 ——青岛银行首次覆盖 投资要点 青岛银行是深耕山东的成长性城商行，化债推动风险评价改善，网点加密和低 不良生成有望支撑较强的盈利增长，有利于青岛银行估值抬升。 公司画像：经济大省成长性城商行 （1）发展：青岛银行由原青岛地区 21 家城市信用社合并组建而成。发展至今， 青岛银行资产规模达到城商行中位水平，具有金租和理财牌照，综合能力强。 （2）区位：青岛银行深耕青岛，覆盖全省。山东经济体量大，青岛经济领航山 东，是青岛银行发展的良好基础。截至 24H1 末，青岛银行有 51%贷款投向青 岛，其余分布在山东其他城市。 （3）管理：①青岛银行股权结构均衡，具有地方国资+优质民企+外资银行的多 元化股权结构。24H1 财报披露，青岛银行前三大股东分别是海尔集团、意大利 联合圣保罗银行、青岛国信，分别持有青岛银行 18.14%、17.50%、14.99%的股 份（合并子公司口径）。②管理团队金融经验丰富，以董事长景在伦先生、行长 吴显明先生为代表的核心管理团队，银行管理经验丰富，专业能力突出。 财务分析：ROE 呈逐步改善态 ...