投资要点 创新驱动，融合 AI，产品高端化或将提升 Roe ——安克创新点评报告 安克创新(300866) 报告日期：2025 年 09 月 03 日 ❑ 收入符合此前预期，利润受召回、关税等因素短期影响 25H1：营收 128.67 亿元（+33.4%，以下均为同比），归母净利润 11.67 亿元 （+33.8%），扣非归母净利 9.61 亿元(+25.6%)。 25Q2：营收 68.73 亿元（+30.4%），归母净利润 6.71 亿元（+19.5%），扣非归母 净利 5.22 亿元（+15.9%）。此外公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派现 7 元（含税），总 计 3.75 亿元，分红比例达 32.16%。 ❑ 利润率稳定，毛利率受短期因素影响略下滑，持续研发投入 25H1：归母净利率 9.07%（+0.03pct），毛利率 44.7%（-0.45pct），销售费用率 22.0%（+0.05pct），管理费用率 3.6%（-0.5pct），研发费用率 9.3%（+1pct）。 ❑ 储能和智新增速亮眼，外部影响下美国仍具备强韧性，欧洲释放弹性 25H1 分品类：充电储能类营收 68.16 亿，同增 37%，占比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $780 million in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was $78.63 million, down 14.5% year-on-year. Excluding the impact of the early shipment of 1 million pairs of shoes for the Paris Olympics, revenue increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and net profit decreased by 6.3% [1][4] - The revenue from the sports category increased by 8.2% year-on-year, accounting for 48.5% of total revenue, while the fashion category decreased by 2.6%, luxury by 6.2%, and leisure by 9.2%. The growth in the sports category is driven by the expansion of key customers and new client acquisitions [1][2] - The company has a strong order backlog and is expanding its production capacity, particularly in Southeast Asia, with new factories in Indonesia and Bangladesh expected to contribute significantly to future growth [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company shipped 27.5 million pairs of shoes, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, with an average selling price (ASP) of $27.4, down 3.2% year-on-year due to a higher proportion of lower-priced sports products [2] - The gross margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 22.6%, primarily due to the ramp-up inefficiencies of new factories and employee training [4] Capacity Expansion - The production distribution for footwear in H1 2025 was 52% in Vietnam, 25% in China, and 23% in other Asian regions. New production capacity is expected to be added in Indonesia and Bangladesh, with a total of 20 million pairs of new capacity planned over the next three years [3] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion, and $1.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 7%, and 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be $165 million, $185 million, and $204 million for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, +12%, and +10% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 reached a new high, with revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and a net profit of 1.159 billion yuan, up 95% year-on-year. The interconnect chip product revenue was 2.46 billion yuan, growing 61% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 64%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The rapid penetration of DDR5 memory modules is expected to exceed 50% in 2024 and 85% in 2025, driving significant growth in the company's revenue and profit due to strong demand from data centers [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI trend, with a comprehensive product layout in high-speed interconnects, including PCIe/CXL interconnect chips and Ethernet/optical interconnect chips, which are crucial for data center networking [3][4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.49 billion yuan, 7.91 billion yuan, and 9.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 50.9%, 44.1%, and 19.9%. The net profit is expected to be 2.51 billion yuan, 3.56 billion yuan, and 4.40 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 77.5%, 42.0%, and 23.5% respectively [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is undergoing a transformation towards IP, which is expected to catalyze performance recovery in the future [2] - Traditional core business has faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 7% in 2025H1 [2] - The company has established strategic partnerships to enhance its IP offerings, transitioning from a "function provider" to an "emotional value provider" [2] - The overseas market is showing steady growth, with a 16% increase in revenue in 2025H1 [2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025H1, the company achieved a revenue of 10.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 0.557 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for 2025H1 was 19.45%, showing a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin for 2025H1 was 5.15%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 25.373 billion yuan, 27.520 billion yuan, and 29.876 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.73%, 8.46%, and 8.56% [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 1.439 billion yuan, 1.581 billion yuan, and 1.735 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 3.12%, 9.86%, and 9.69% [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The indicator is designed to track resident capital flows at a high frequency, combining data from three perspectives: ETFs dominated by individual investors, trading activity at specific brokerage branches, and Baidu search indices[1][11][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **ETF Perspective**: - Identify A-share equity ETFs with individual ownership ≥70% based on semi-annual and annual reports (data updated in March and August each year) - Calculate daily ETF fund flows using the formula: $ \text{Daily Fund Flow} = \text{Daily Change in ETF Shares} \times \text{VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)} $ - Aggregate the fund flows of all selected ETFs to derive the indicator for individual investor-dominated ETFs[12] 2. **Brokerage Branch Perspective**: - Use trading data from specific branches of Orient Securities in Lhasa, which are predominantly used by retail investors - Calculate the daily trading volume of these branches as a percentage of the total trading volume of the Wind All-A Index to represent resident activity[13][17] 3. **Baidu Index Perspective**: - Select three keywords: "stock account opening," "bull market," and "bottom fishing" - Use their rolling 1-month moving averages to measure resident sentiment in different market scenarios[21] 4. **Comprehensive Indicator Construction**: - Smooth all three sub-indicators using a 1-month moving average - Calculate the rolling 6-month percentile rank for each sub-indicator - Combine the percentile ranks of the three Baidu keywords equally to form the Baidu sub-indicator - Combine the ETF, brokerage, and Baidu sub-indicators equally to form the final Resident Capital Activity Indicator, with values ranging from 0 to 1[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator aligns well with monthly A-share account opening data, demonstrating its effectiveness as a high-frequency proxy for resident capital flows. It also exhibits timing capabilities, similar to the "fear-greed index," by signaling potential short-term market risks when resident sentiment overheats[27][28] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Wind All-A Index Return**: 75% (from February 2019 to August 2025) - **Timing Strategy Return**: 167% (based on the rule: stay fully invested unless the indicator exceeds 70% in the past 10 days, in which case switch to cash)[28]

Market Overview - On September 2, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.5%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.7%, the STAR 50 dropped by 2.1%, the CSI 1000 declined by 2.5%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.9%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.5% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on that day were banking (+2.0%), utilities (+1.0%), home appliances (+0.9%), automotive (+0.4%), and oil & petrochemicals (+0.4%). The worst-performing sectors included telecommunications (-5.7%), computers (-4.1%), electronics (-3.9%), defense & military (-2.6%), and building materials (-2.3%) [4][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 28,749 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 9.28 billion HKD [6] Important Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates a growing importance of investment in the U.S. economic growth, with expectations of strong growth in 2026 supported by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and increased corporate capital expenditure driven by national capitalism [7] - The report highlights a significant increase in the net profit of XCMG (000425) by 36% year-on-year, indicating a notable improvement in operational quality [9] - The report on Fubo Group (03738) shows a total revenue of 1,456 million HKD for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, with adjusted net profit rising by 88.1% [8][9] Company-Specific Analysis - Fubo Group's performance exceeded market expectations, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 estimated at 2.99 billion, 3.78 billion, and 4.82 billion HKD, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 25%, 27%, and 27% [8] - XCMG is positioned to benefit from a domestic recovery and increased market share overseas, with catalysts including unexpected order growth and investment in real estate and infrastructure [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.326 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.54%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 10 million yuan, down 80.66% year-on-year. The revenue growth was mainly due to increased business volume in international and new energy sectors, while profit was pressured by upstream price adjustments and maintenance of shipping vessels [1][2] - The new round of regulatory policies for vehicle transportation is expected to accelerate the exit of non-compliant capacity, which will help restore reasonable freight rates in the industry. As a leading compliant transportation enterprise, the company is well-positioned to capture more transportation demand and increase market share [2] - The peak of depreciation costs is expected to pass, leading to continuous optimization of cost structure. The company purchased nearly 2,400 middle-axle transport vehicles in 2017-2018, and the depreciation period is expected to end starting in the second half of 2025, significantly reducing costs and enhancing profit elasticity [2] - The company is steadily advancing its international and new energy businesses, establishing a multi-modal transport network and focusing on three main directions in the new energy sector: energy storage products, hazardous materials logistics, and integrated solutions for solar energy [2] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 79 million yuan in 2025, 130 million yuan in 2026, and 168 million yuan in 2027. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the supply-side clearing and freight rate recovery brought about by the regulatory policies [4][2] - The forecasted operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.984 billion yuan, 5.676 billion yuan, and 6.415 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.38%, 13.90%, and 13.00% [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.13 yuan, 0.21 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is implementing a "1+6+N" adjustment strategy in its department stores, with visible results from the ongoing renovations in various store formats [2] - The supermarket segment has seen a 15% increase in customer traffic and a 14.7% increase in POS sales after renovations, with a 23.4% increase in net gross profit [2] - The electrical appliance segment is upgrading its direct sales stores and has launched several new experience centers [2] - The automotive trade segment has adjusted nine stores to enhance the sales proportion of new energy vehicles [2] - The company's gross margin improved significantly to 28.43%, up 1.78 percentage points year-on-year, and down 5.33% in total operating costs [2] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.45%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 774 million yuan, an increase of 8.74% [8] - The company expects to achieve operating revenues of 17.493 billion yuan, 18.069 billion yuan, and 18.990 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.380 billion yuan, 1.481 billion yuan, and 1.590 billion yuan [9] - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 9.36, 8.72, and 8.12 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 348 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.48%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.28 million yuan, down 69.84% year-on-year [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased depreciation and amortization, alongside a decrease in gross margin by 7.43 percentage points to 42.63% due to changes in product and customer structure [2] - The company is focusing on high-end consumer electronics and expanding its market presence, with significant growth in the automotive paint business, which saw revenue increase by 109.60% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively collaborating with major clients in the high-end consumer electronics sector, enhancing its technical capabilities and expanding its product offerings [3] - In the automotive sector, the company is strengthening its position in interior components while accelerating the expansion into exterior parts, with a focus on collaborative development with leading manufacturers [4] - The company is also venturing into emerging fields, particularly in solid-state battery technology, where it has developed integrated solutions for insulation frame printing equipment and materials [5] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 93.19 million yuan, 176 million yuan, and 252 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67.75, 35.88, and 25.08 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 348 million yuan, a 7.48% increase year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 69.84% to 12.28 million yuan [1] - The gross margin decreased by 7.43 percentage points to 42.63% due to product and customer structure changes [2] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end consumer electronics, expanding its market share, and has seen significant growth in the automotive paint sector [2][4] - Collaborations with major clients in the high-end consumer electronics market are ongoing, with new projects being developed [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability as production increases and operational efficiencies improve [2] - The forecasts for net profit growth indicate a positive trend, with significant increases expected in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in operations with expected profit elasticity, as evidenced by a 9% year-on-year increase in revenue to 4.913 billion yuan and a 21% increase in net profit to 710 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - The decline in net profit after deducting non-recurring items was primarily due to the impact of fair value changes in financial assets, with a significant increase in trading financial assets by 55.4 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The second quarter of 2025 is viewed as the low point for the company's performance, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year driven by a rebound in nitrile glove prices [3] - The company’s gross margin improved to 24.23% in the first half of 2025, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, supported by a decline in raw material costs [4] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 10.258 billion yuan, 12.248 billion yuan, and 14.179 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 7.72%, 19.40%, and 15.76% respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 49.13 billion yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.10 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year [1] - The second quarter revenue was 24.20 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year [1][3] Market Dynamics - The company has shown strong growth in non-American markets, with a 45% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue and a 35% increase in domestic revenue for the first half of 2025 [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in nitrile glove prices and increased production capacity in the future [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.23%, reflecting a stable increase despite market pressures [4] - The net profit margin for the second quarter was 14.78%, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenges [4]