房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 25 周周报（2025 年 6 月 14 日-2025 年 6 月 20 日） 本周楼市成交面积同比增速由正转负；多地优化公积金贷款 政策 新房、二手房成交面积环比均涨幅收窄、同比均由正转负。新房库存面积同环比均下降，去化 周期环比上升、同比下降。 核心观点 政策 地方层面，6 月 18 日，江苏省住建厅印发《江苏省住宅工程品质提升行动方案》，旨在提 升住宅工程品质。该方案提出"大力提升住宅工程实体质量、性能品质和居住体验，建设 经得起市场和时间检验的安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的'好房子'。至 2027 年底，行动各项 措施全面落地，长效工作机制形成，工程质量缺陷投诉数量下降 30%以上，住宅工程品质 明显提升"。此外，本周多地优化公积金贷款政策。6 月 17 日，浙江省直公积金中心提取 住房公积金直付购房首付款已正式上线，在杭州市区购房可用公积金个人账户余额直付首 付款。6 月 17 日，温州市公积金管理中心推出购买二手住房提取住房公积金支付首付款政 策。山东淄博 6 月 18 日上调公积金贷款额度，夫妻最高可贷 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the company, with 2024 revenue reaching 21.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 5.87 billion yuan, up 117.01% [2][5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [2][5] - The nutritional products segment saw significant growth, with revenue of 15.06 billion yuan in 2024, a 52.58% increase year-on-year, driven by the release of new production capacity and recovery in the downstream aquaculture industry [7][8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, a 41.99% increase year-on-year, but a slight decrease of 1.84% quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 5.44 billion yuan, a 20.91% increase year-on-year, but a 6.66% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.78%, up 8.80 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 27.29%, an increase of 9.26 percentage points [6] Product and Market Insights - The average price of key products in the nutritional segment increased significantly in 2024, with VA averaging 133.48 yuan/kg (up 58.12%), VE at 100.84 yuan/kg (up 42.82%), and methionine at 20.90 yuan/kg (up 19.25%) [7] - The company has successfully released 300,000 tons/year of methionine production capacity and is progressing on a joint venture project with Sinopec for an 180,000 tons/year liquid methionine project [7][8] Project Development - The company is actively advancing new projects in flavors and fragrances, new materials, and active pharmaceutical ingredients, with the flavors and fragrances segment generating revenue of 3.92 billion yuan in 2024, a 19.62% increase [8] - The new materials segment achieved revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, a 39.51% increase, with ongoing development in PPS applications and nylon new materials [8]

Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market may issue a new buying signal if there is a significant adjustment due to the Middle East situation [1][4]. Market Context - Following the U.S. military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, there are concerns about potential retaliatory actions from Iran and the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked [2][3]. - Despite ongoing conflicts, the intensity of the situation, as measured by international gold prices, has not shown significant deterioration, with Brent crude oil futures rising notably since the conflict began [2][3]. A-Share Market Sentiment - As of June 20, the BOCIASI slow line (cost-performance) indicator decreased from 36.3% on June 16 to 33.6%, while the fast line (momentum) sentiment indicator dropped from 55.3% on June 9 to 34.5%, approaching the current buying signal threshold of 27.0% [4][6]. - This suggests that if the market experiences a significant adjustment due to the Middle East situation, the fast line indicator may soon issue a new buying signal [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [29]. Core Insights - The launch of GPT-5 is anticipated this summer, which is expected to create dual investment opportunities in computing infrastructure and application ecosystems [1][4]. - The first 5G-A embodied intelligent robot was released by Leju in collaboration with China Mobile and Huawei, marking a significant breakthrough in the integration of 5G-A communication, AI models, and robotics [1][12]. - Alibaba Cloud announced the opening of its second data center in South Korea by the end of June, expanding its global footprint to 29 regions and 88 availability zones, enhancing its competitive position against international cloud providers [1][13][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Zhongke Shuguang, Inspur Information, and Cambricon due to the expected launch of GPT-5 [4]. - In the field of embodied intelligent robots and Alibaba Cloud, companies like Data Port, Digital China, Zhejiang University Network, and Softcom Power are recommended for attention [4]. Company Developments - Haitai High-tech repurchased 389,700 shares, accounting for 0.05% of its total share capital, with a total transaction amount of approximately 3.97 million yuan [3]. - Tax Friend Co. plans to repurchase and cancel 418,250 restricted stocks due to performance assessment failures among some incentive targets [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 21.70 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in performance, particularly in the methionine and new materials sectors, with orderly capacity release and ongoing project construction [5][10]. - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 21.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5.87 billion, up 117.01% year-on-year [5][11]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of RMB 5.44 billion, reflecting a 20.91% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of RMB 1.88 billion, which is a 116.18% increase year-on-year [5][13]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and net profit for 2024 were significantly boosted by the sales and price increases of key products in the nutrition segment, alongside effective cost management [10][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.78%, an increase of 8.80 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 27.29%, up 9.26 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 5.00 per 10 shares to all shareholders [5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of RMB 64.65 billion, RMB 74.16 billion, and RMB 79.25 billion respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 2.10, RMB 2.41, and RMB 2.58 [7][15]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3, 9.0, and 8.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][15]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Xinhengcheng Holdings Group Co., Ltd., holding 50.08% of the company [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - US retail data cooled in May, with the year-on-year increase in commodity retail data dropping from 5.0% in the previous month to 2.6%. The Fed's stance against inflation in the June meeting remained firm. The dot plot maintained the median forecast of two 25BP rate cuts this year, but the number of committee members inclined to two or more rate cuts decreased [2]. - The Middle East conflict reached a critical point. On June 21, the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's reaction could be the key to the short - term trends of the global energy and precious metals markets [2]. - The producer price index rebounded month - on - month. From June 16 to 21, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.17% month - on - month and 17.78% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index rose by 7.21% month - on - month and decreased by 0.69% year - on - year. In the week of June 13, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.50% month - on - month and 5.62% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 10.07% and 9.35% respectively on average month - on - month. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the production material price index rose by 0.10% month - on - month and decreased by 9.83% year - on - year [2]. - From June 1 - 20, the average daily commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 244,000 square meters, compared with about 264,000 square meters per day in the same period in 2024 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - Includes data on US commodity retail and import year - on - year growth rates, Fed rate forecast dot plots, gold and crude oil spot prices, and high - frequency data weekly month - on - month changes [11][16][18]. - For high - frequency data weekly month - on - month changes, various indicators such as pork average wholesale price, edible agricultural product price index, and production material price index are presented with their current and previous values [18]. - High - frequency data panorama shows the year - on - year data of various indicators related to important macro - indicators, including LME copper spot settlement price, crude steel daily output, and PPI [19]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macro - Indicator Trend Comparison - Compares the year - on - year changes of various price indices (such as commodity price index, rebar price index) with PPI industrial year - on - year, as well as copper spot price year - on - year with industrial added value year - on - year (+PPI year - on - year) [24][29]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - Covers US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, and Chicago Fed financial conditions index [85][87]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Analyzes the seasonal trends (month - on - month increases) of indicators such as crude steel (decadal) daily output, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [97][104]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [155][156].

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates a weak performance in the A-share market, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.45% and CSI 300 futures down by 2.17% [1][12] - The report maintains the asset allocation order as: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [1][3] Economic Data and Policy Insights - Economic data for May shows a mixed performance, with industrial value-added growth slowing compared to April, while retail sales growth improved significantly [2] - The Lujiazui Forum held on June 18 announced several key financial policies aimed at supporting the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, including measures to enhance the internationalization of the RMB and increase openness to foreign capital [2][21] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in equities, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4] - Bonds are recommended to be underweight due to potential short-term impacts from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4] - Commodities are maintained at a standard allocation, with attention to the progress of fiscal policies [4] Market Performance Analysis - The report highlights that only the Shanghai Dividend Index saw an increase of 0.24% this week, while the broader market indices, including the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, experienced declines of 1.75% and 1.74% respectively [36] - In the bond market, the ten-year government bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, while the ten-year government development bond yield decreased by 4 basis points to 1.68% [41] Sector Performance - The banking sector led the gains among industries with a rise of 3.13%, while the pharmaceutical sector faced the largest decline at 4.16% [36] - The report notes a significant interest in technology sectors, particularly with the introduction of new listing standards for innovative companies on the STAR Market [38] Consumer Market Insights - The report indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with a slight increase in transaction volumes in major cities, suggesting that "stabilizing real estate" policies may have a positive effect in the second half of the year [33] - The automotive sector shows strong growth, with wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles increasing by 38% and 23% year-on-year respectively [33]

Core Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a consolidating pattern in the short term, influenced by geopolitical factors and domestic policy expectations [2][10][11] - The adjustment in the main industry is likely to be limited, with the banking sector showing resilience while small-cap stocks face downward pressure [2][21][23] - Mid to long-term industry styles are expected to return to elasticity, suggesting opportunities for strategic allocation during the consolidation phase [2][30][34] Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a box-like consolidation pattern, with short-term sentiment nearing a peak, limiting upward potential [12][11] - Geopolitical risks are manageable, and the A-share market is anticipated to revert to fundamental drivers as long as conflicts do not escalate [11][12] - Recent performance indicates a mixed sentiment, with strong retail sales and industrial output, but investment growth is weakening due to real estate sector pressures [11][12] Industry Performance - The banking sector has outperformed due to its defensive nature and favorable funding conditions, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption are showing signs of profit-taking [21][23] - The AI and humanoid robotics sectors have faced challenges in maintaining upward momentum, with recent news affecting sentiment [23][24] - The financial technology sector, particularly related to stablecoins and RWA (Real-World Assets), is expected to see continued growth and investment opportunities [30][31] IPO and Regulatory Developments - The reopening of the IPO channel for unprofitable companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is a significant development, aimed at supporting high-quality tech firms [41][42] - The new regulatory framework is designed to enhance inclusivity and adaptability for innovative companies, particularly in emerging sectors like AI and aerospace [41][42]

强于大市 化工行业周报 20250622 国际油价、丁二烯、 PTA 价格上涨 今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安 全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中间体行业的影响；2、上半年'抢出口'等因素带来 的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的 能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 截至 6 月 22 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 21.72 倍，处在历史（2002 年至 今）的 65.55%分位数；市净率为 1.85 倍，处在历史水平的 25.95%分位数。SW 石油石化市 盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 11.37 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）的 23.02%分位数；市净率为 1.18 倍，处在历史水平的 24.58%分位数。今年以来，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅 波动等因素影响较大，六月份建议关注：1、安全监管政策、行业供给端变化等对农药及中 间体行业的影响；2、上半年'抢出口'等因素带来的部分公司业绩波动；3、自主可控日益 关键背景下的电子材料公司；4、分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。中长期推荐 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 22 日 周度金融市场跟踪 股票方面，本周 A 股整体下跌，小盘股走势弱于大盘股。全周累计看，沪深 300 本 周下跌 0.5%，中证1000 下跌 1.7%，中证 2000 下跌 2.2%。恒生指数本周下跌 1.5%， 恒生科技指数下跌 2.0%。行业方面，银行、通信和电子领涨。值得注意的是在市场 整体走弱的背景下，本周银行指数大幅上涨 2.6%，申万银行指数收盘至历史最高水 平。前期上涨较多的美容护理、纺织服装和医药生物领跌（图表 9），医药生物在连 续多周上涨后本周大幅下跌 4.4%。风格上，本周高估值风格（高市盈率和高市净率 指数）与低估值风格（低市盈率和低市净率指数）连续第二周走势相反（高估值下跌， 低估值上涨）。高估值资产的整体下跌体现了当前市场的避险情绪。周内看，周一（6 月 16 日）市场整体上涨，上午统计局发布经济数据，5 月份国民经济运行总体平稳、 稳中有进，全天超 3500 只股票上涨。周二（6 月 17 日）市场震荡。周三（6 月 18 日）上午陆家嘴论坛"一行两局一会"领导分别发言并发布了一系列政策举措，其中 证监会推出 ...