Core Insights - The report introduces a quarterly rebalancing industry rotation strategy based on traditional quantitative multi-factor scoring, focusing on "valuation," "quality," "liquidity," and "momentum" [1][11] - The composite strategy achieved an annualized return of 19.64% during the backtesting period (April 1, 2014 - June 6, 2025), significantly outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark which returned 7.55%, resulting in an annualized excess return of 12.09% [1][68] - The strategy prioritizes low valuation, low crowding, improving economic conditions, upward price momentum over the past year, and industries that have been at low price levels for the past three years [1][11] Industry Factor Backtesting Framework - The backtesting period spans from January 2010 to September 2024, with a quarterly rebalancing approach using data from the last trading day of each quarter [12] - The strategy excludes industries with a weight of less than 2% in the CSI 800 index for risk control, retaining approximately 15-16 major industries for rotation calculations [12][3] Industry Rotation Strategy Overview Valuation Factors - Valuation factors include PE_TTM, PB_LF, PCF_TTM, PEG, and dividend yield, evaluated through various methods such as historical percentiles and marginal changes [15] - Notable factors include: - Dividend yield ranking over three years (4.0% annualized excess for TOP-5) [16] - PE_TTM marginal change over two months (5.8% annualized excess for TOP-5) [16] Quality Factors - Quality factors are based on ROE and ROA, focusing on profitability and financial stability [19] - Key factors include: - ROA_TTM marginal change over one quarter (4.3% annualized excess for TOP-5) [20] - ROE_FY2 (4.7% annualized excess for TOP-5) [20] Liquidity Factors - Liquidity factors are derived from turnover rates of freely circulating shares, assessed through various time frames [21] - Effective factors include: - 21-day average turnover rate (4.3% annualized excess for TOP-5) [22] - Margin of turnover rates over two months (4.6% annualized excess for TOP-5) [22] Momentum Factors - Momentum factors are calculated based on recent returns over different periods, showing varying characteristics [24] - Significant factors include: - One-month momentum (7.7% annualized excess for TOP-5) [26] - Three-month momentum (1.9% annualized excess for TOP-5) [26] Factor Combination - The report explores both z-score and rank equal-weight combinations of selected factors to enhance model performance [27] - The top-performing combinations include: - z-score combination with PE_TTM marginal change, ROE marginal change, and one-year momentum [32] - rank combination with PE_TTM three-year ranking, ROE marginal change, and 21-day momentum [37] Recommended Factors - The report recommends specific factors for the composite strategy: - Momentum: 252_momentum (one-year) and 756_momentum (three-year) [68] - Liquidity: TURNOVER_FREE_m (21-day average) and TURNOVER_FREE_Q_margin (quarterly margin) [68] - Valuation: 股息率_3Y_rank (three-year dividend yield ranking) and PB_LF_d2m (two-month marginal change) [68] - Quality: ROE_TTM_d1q (one-quarter marginal change) and ROE_FY2 (next year's expected ROE) [68]

Strategy Overview - The report discusses the effectiveness of the "fourth breakthrough attempt" in the context of market structure being more important than index direction [1][2] - The BOCIASI sentiment indicator has shown an increase, indicating a focus on whether to increase or decrease positions [2] Market Performance - From June 23 to June 25, 2025, the Wind All A Index achieved three consecutive gains, raising market attention on whether the index can break through previous consolidation levels [2] - The Wind All A Index has touched the upper boundary of its range three times since October 8, 2024, with the BOCIASI indicator issuing three sell signals [2] Current Market Conditions - As of June 25, the slow line reports 38.4% and the fast line reports 53.9%, indicating a "volatile market" environment [2] - If the Wind All A Index rises by 1.0%, the moving average system will transition to an "upward market" environment, with adjusted sell thresholds for both slow and fast lines [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining current positions while adjusting the holding structure to prioritize "controlling drawdowns" over "beating the index" [2] - Even if the brokerage sector continues to rise and the index breaks through the range, there may still be opportunities for a "second emotional low" after the initial breakthrough [2] Sector Analysis - The rise in the brokerage sector is viewed as a defensive action against high sentiment levels, with a shift towards buying relatively lower-priced stocks [2] - The report highlights that the brokerage and internet finance sectors were catalyzed by news related to "stablecoins" on May 25 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 79.15 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has signed a significant new contract worth RMB 146 million, which is expected to boost its revenue for 2024 by approximately 15% [3][7]. - The AI infrastructure boom is driving investment in PCB, and the company is likely to benefit from the expansion efforts of PCB manufacturers [3][7]. - The report adjusts the company's earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with EPS estimates revised to RMB 2.09 and RMB 2.75 respectively, while projecting an EPS of RMB 3.37 for 2027 [7]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is RMB 829 million, increasing to RMB 1,377 million by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 44.3% [6]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 155 million in 2023 to RMB 277 million in 2025 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from RMB 179 million in 2023 to RMB 276 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 71.7% [6]. - The company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 37.8, 28.8, and 23.5 respectively [7].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Single Strategy Models - **Model Name**: High Prosperity Industry Rotation Strategy **Construction Idea**: Tracks industry profitability expectations using multi-factor models based on analysts' consensus data to select industries with upward profitability trends [13][15][16] **Construction Process**: 1. Constructs three types of factors: - Type 1: Long-term profitability factors (e.g., ROE_FY2, ROE_FY1) - Type 2: Quarterly changes in profitability (e.g., EPS_F2_qoq, EPS_F3_mom) - Type 3: Monthly changes in profitability (e.g., EPS_F3_qoq_d1m) 2. Filters industries with extreme valuations using PB percentile thresholds [30] 3. Selects top 3 industries based on composite factor rankings and allocates equally [21][30] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in tracking industry cycles and avoiding valuation bubbles [13][26] - **Model Name**: Implicit Sentiment Momentum Strategy **Construction Idea**: Captures "unverified sentiment" by removing the relationship between turnover rate changes and returns, aiming to identify market sentiment-driven opportunities [32][33] **Construction Process**: 1. Uses OLS regression to remove "expected sentiment" from daily industry returns, leaving residuals as "unverified sentiment" [34] 2. Constructs momentum factors based on cumulative "unverified sentiment" returns over various time windows (e.g., 1 month, 12 months) [35] 3. Enhances the strategy by neutralizing fundamental impacts, adjusting for volatility, and applying composite factor methods [36] **Evaluation**: Effectively captures sentiment-driven market dynamics ahead of fundamental data releases [32][37] - **Model Name**: Macro Indicator Style Rotation Strategy **Construction Idea**: Uses macroeconomic indicators to predict industry styles (e.g., value, momentum) and maps them to industry selection [43][44] **Construction Process**: 1. Constructs macro indicators (e.g., PMI, CPI, M1) using historical positioning, surprise, and marginal change metrics [48][49] 2. Builds style factors (e.g., Value, Beta, Momentum) based on industry exposures [50][51] 3. Maps style predictions to industry scores and selects top industries [61] **Evaluation**: Addresses limitations of traditional top-down models by incorporating style-based predictions [43][61] - **Model Name**: Mid-to-Long-Term Momentum Reversal Strategy **Construction Idea**: Explores the "momentum-reversal" structure in industry returns, combining short-term momentum and long-term reversal factors [70][71] **Construction Process**: 1. Constructs momentum factors based on single-month returns and reversal factors based on multi-month returns (e.g., 12-month momentum, 24-36 month reversal) [76][78] 2. Combines factors using rank-weighted methods and adjusts for turnover rates [80][85] **Evaluation**: Balances short-term trends and long-term recovery opportunities effectively [70][84] - **Model Name**: Fund Flow Industry Rotation Strategy **Construction Idea**: Tracks institutional and tail-end fund flows to identify industry momentum [91][92] **Construction Process**: 1. Constructs "institutional trend strength factors" based on net buy amounts [93][94] 2. Constructs "tail-end inflow strength factors" based on post-14:30 net inflow data [96][103] 3. Combines factors and excludes high-concentration industries [100][101] **Evaluation**: Enhances stability by avoiding crowded trades [91][101] - **Model Name**: Financial Report Failure Reversal Strategy **Construction Idea**: Utilizes mean-reversion characteristics of long-term effective financial factors after short-term failures [108][109] **Construction Process**: 1. Constructs financial factors (e.g., ROA, YOY) using profit and balance sheet data [110][114] 2. Identifies "long-term effective factors" and "recently failed factors" based on rolling windows [116][117] 3. Combines factors using zscore methods [117] **Evaluation**: Captures recovery opportunities in temporarily underperforming factors [108][118] - **Model Name**: Traditional Low-Frequency Multi-Factor Scoring Strategy **Construction Idea**: Combines factors from four dimensions (momentum, valuation, liquidity, quality) for quarterly industry rotation [122][123] **Construction Process**: 1. Selects top-performing factors from each dimension (e.g., 1-year momentum, ROE_TTM) [124][125] 2. Combines factors using rank-weighted methods [135] 3. Filters industries with low weights in the CSI 800 index [135] **Evaluation**: Suitable for long-term holding with robust risk control [122][129] Composite Strategy Models - **Model Name**: Volatility-Controlled Composite Strategy **Construction Idea**: Allocates funds across single strategies based on inverse negative volatility [138][139] **Construction Process**: 1. Calculates negative volatility for each strategy over a rolling window (e.g., 63 days) [139][140] 2. Allocates funds proportionally to inverse negative volatility [139][147] 3. Adjusts allocation frequencies to match individual strategy cycles (weekly, monthly, quarterly) [141][146] **Evaluation**: Balances risk and return effectively, achieving high annualized excess returns [138][144] --- Model Backtest Results Single Strategy Results - **High Prosperity Strategy**: Annualized excess return 16.69%, max drawdown -12.95%, IR 1.29 [26] - **Implicit Sentiment Strategy**: Annualized excess return 18.61%, max drawdown -17.83%, IR 1.04 [37] - **Macro Style Strategy**: Annualized excess return 7.01%, max drawdown -23.46%, IR 0.30 [63] - **Momentum Reversal Strategy**: Annualized excess return 11.42%, max drawdown -14.91%, IR 0.77 [84] - **Fund Flow Strategy**: Annualized excess return 11.64%, max drawdown -12.16%, IR 0.96 [101] - **Financial Report Strategy**: Annualized excess return 9.13%, max drawdown -10.54%, IR 0.87 [118] - **Low-Frequency Multi-Factor Strategy**: Annualized excess return 12.00%, max drawdown -13.25%, IR 0.91 [129] Composite Strategy Results - **Volatility-Controlled Composite Strategy**: Annualized excess return 12.2%, max drawdown -6.8%, IR 1.80 [144][147]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Viewpoints - The integration of 5G-A and AI is driving industry transformation, reconstructing the value chain of information infrastructure. This dual drive effect significantly enhances the marginal efficiency and commercial potential of 5G networks, leading to a golden period of industry development [3][4]. - The 2025 MWC Shanghai showcased the successful outcomes of the 5G and AI integration, with major players in the industry releasing innovative results, marking the transition from technical concepts to practical applications [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on network infrastructure construction, recommending key operators and equipment manufacturers for investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The 2025 MWC Shanghai highlighted four major themes: "AI+", "Industry Interconnection," "Empowerment Interconnection," and "5G Fusion," showcasing the ongoing transformation in the communication industry driven by AI [1]. - The report notes that the 5G-A network construction is accelerating, with significant investments planned by major operators, including nearly 10 billion yuan by China Mobile for smart upgrades [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in network infrastructure construction, specifically mentioning operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as equipment manufacturers such as ZTE, Unisoc, and Ruijie Networks [3]. - The report also highlights the potential of 5G-A to empower various industries, including industrial, logistics, and low-altitude economies, creating new market opportunities [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the user base for 5G-A has surpassed 10 million in China, with projections that China Mobile's 5G-A users will exceed 50 million by the end of 2025 [3]. - The integration of 5G-A and AI is expected to enhance network performance and enable new applications across various sectors, further expanding the market space for industrial internet [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant performance improvement for the company, driven by the rising demand in the refrigerant industry and optimized layout in the fluorochemical sector, leading to expected growth in earnings [6][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 24.46 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.96 billion, up 107.69% year-on-year [6][11] - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 6.56 billion, a 41.21% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 701.97 million, reflecting a 256.83% year-on-year growth [12] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of RMB 5.80 billion, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 808.79 million, up 160.64% year-on-year [13] Industry Outlook - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a continuous increase in prices, with the average price of refrigerants rising by 32.69% year-on-year in 2024 [10] - The company holds a leading position in production quotas for refrigerants, with a 26.10% share of the national R22 production quota and a 39.6% share of HFCs production quotas [10] Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 4.18 billion, RMB 5.07 billion, and RMB 5.81 billion respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of RMB 1.55, RMB 1.88, and RMB 2.15 [8][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking sector as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - The banking sector index increased by 2.63% this week, ranking first among all sectors, with 41 out of 42 A-share banks experiencing price increases [1][2] - Year-to-date, the banking sector has risen by 12.73%, maintaining its position as the top-performing sector [1] - Key banks to focus on include China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [1] Summary by Sections Banking Sector and Stock Performance - The A-share banking index rose by 3.13% this week, outperforming the Wind All A index, which fell by 1.07% [12] - Among bank types, state-owned banks saw an average increase of 4.09%, joint-stock banks 3.17%, city commercial banks 2.54%, and rural commercial banks 3.19% [14][17] - In the Hong Kong market, 8 out of 15 A-share banks listed as H-shares saw price increases, with Zhengzhou Bank having the highest AH share premium at 104.05% [14][25] Funding Price Situation - The central bank conducted a significant reverse repurchase operation, injecting 960.3 billion yuan into the market [3][27] - As of the end of the week, the SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.37%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [30][31] - The average weighted rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.66%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous week [58] Bond Market Situation - Total bond market financing reached 25,633.8 billion yuan this week, with net financing increasing by 1,065.8 billion yuan [42][46] - Local government bonds issuance was 2,617.5 billion yuan, up 1,539.7 billion yuan from last week, while national bonds decreased by 2,270.6 billion yuan [42][46] - The yield on 1-year government bonds was 1.36%, down 4 basis points, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 1.64% [45][48]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market," indicating expectations for the industry index to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [2][49]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 3.30% in the first two trading weeks of June 2025, ranking 19th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.54 percentage points [2][13]. - With the summer travel season approaching, there is an anticipated increase in consumer spending, supported by positive consumption data from May, which showed a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in retail sales, the highest since January 2024 [5][30]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in travel demand, particularly for family trips, with a projected 76% increase in outbound travel to Europe and notable growth in less common destinations [5][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was below the market average, with all sub-sectors, including tourism retail and education, experiencing declines [15][19]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 30.91 times, which is at the 20.62% historical percentile, compared to the CSI 300's PE of 12.12 times at the 45.62% historical percentile [22][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, such as Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., and Songcheng Performance [5][42]. - It also recommends monitoring hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery, such as Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, as well as companies in the cross-border travel market like China Duty Free and Wangfujing [5][42].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The Middle East tensions have led to increased oil shipping rates and insurance premiums, while the sentiment in the capesize market has cooled significantly, resulting in a sharp decline in daily charter rates [13][14] - Cathay Pacific's passenger volume from January to May 2025 increased by 28.4% compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable rise in international travel [15][16] - SF Express reported a revenue increase of 11.34% in May 2025, with domestic express delivery volume growing by 20.1% year-on-year [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has triggered a chain reaction in the oil shipping market, with VLCC average daily charter rates rising to nearly $55,000, reflecting a more than 100% week-on-week increase [13] - Cathay Pacific's passenger volume for May 2025 increased by 36.1% year-on-year, indicating strong recovery in air travel demand [15][16] - SF Express achieved a total revenue of CNY 25.113 billion in May 2025, marking an 11.34% increase year-on-year [22] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking 2.1 Air Logistics - The air cargo price index for Shanghai outbound flights was reported at 4,475 points, down 6.4% year-on-year [25] - Domestic cargo flights decreased by 6.76% year-on-year in May 2025, while international flights increased by 26.98% [31] 2.2 Shipping Ports - The SCFI index for Shanghai's export container shipping was reported at 1,869.59 points, down 10.47% week-on-week and down 46.21% year-on-year [39] - The total cargo throughput at national ports reached 5.755 billion tons in the first four months of 2025, a 3.7% year-on-year increase [50] 2.3 Express Logistics - In May 2025, the express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.20% [52] - The total express delivery volume from January to May 2025 was 78.77 billion pieces, reflecting a 20.1% year-on-year growth [23]

Core Insights - The report highlights the current industry allocation of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy system, with the highest weights in Communication (10.6%), Electronics (8.7%), and Comprehensive Finance (8.2) [1] - The average weekly return for the CITIC primary industries was -2.2%, with the best-performing sectors being Oil & Petrochemicals (2.8%), Communication (1.5%), and Banking (1.0%) [3][10] - The report indicates that the composite strategy has achieved a cumulative return of 4.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 1.1% [3] Recent Industry Performance Review - The best-performing sectors this week were Oil & Petrochemicals (2.8%), Communication (1.5%), and Banking (1.0%), while the worst were Pharmaceuticals (-6.1%), Textiles and Apparel (-5.8%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (-5.1%) [10][11] - The average return for the CITIC primary industries over the past month was -0.3% [10] Industry Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying sectors with high valuation risks [12] - Currently, the Retail Trade and Automotive sectors are flagged for high valuation risk, with PB ratios above the 95th percentile [13][14] Single Strategy Rankings and Recent Performance - The top three industries based on the high prosperity industry rotation strategy (S1) are Non-ferrous Metals, Communication, and Pharmaceuticals [15][16] - The implied sentiment momentum tracking strategy (S2) ranks Banking, Communication, and Comprehensive Finance as the top three sectors [20] Composite Strategy Industry Allocation and Performance Review - The composite strategy has allocated the highest weights to the Long-term Dilemma Reversal Strategy (S4) at 22.5%, while the lowest weight is assigned to the Macro Style Rotation Strategy (S3) at 8.6% [3] - The report indicates that the Long-term Dilemma Reversal Strategy recommends Banking, Steel, Electronics, Non-bank Finance, Building Materials, and Coal as the top sectors for investment this month [26]