1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, interest rate bonds fluctuated slightly weaker, and credit bonds adjusted synchronously with interest rates but declined more significantly. This might be due to the continuous fermentation of the Vanke incident, causing the market's credit risk preference to turn cautious [2][10]. - After three weeks of phased adjustment, the "volatility amplifier" characteristic of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds reappeared, with a decline higher than that of general - credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same maturity. There is a certain opportunity for left - side participation [3][18]. - The selling pressure of ultra - long - term credit bonds was strong last week. The market became more cautious about duration at the end of the year. The Vanke incident made the market more risk - averse, and investment institutions' willingness to invest in real - estate and related sectors decreased [4][22]. - Currently, the coupon strategy is still the best. After the recent adjustment, about 28.7% of the 1 - 3 - year credit bonds with implied ratings of AA and AA(2) have yields between 2.2% - 2.6%, leaving some room for bond selection. It is still not advisable to pursue ultra - long - term credit bonds. For allocation portfolios with a more stable liability side, the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of large state - owned banks with a maturity of 3 - 5 years can be considered for appropriate participation [5][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance - **Interest Rate and Credit Bond Yield Changes**: From December 1 to December 5, 2025, the 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y Treasury bond yields changed by - 0.0BP, - 1.5BP, - 1.5BP, - 0.2BP, and + 1.4BP respectively, while the yields of the same - maturity AAA medium - term notes increased by 1.1BP, 2.6BP, 2.9BP, 2.6BP, and 3.7BP respectively, and AA + medium - term notes increased by 2.1BP, 3.6BP, 1.9BP, 3.6BP, and 4.7BP respectively [10]. - **Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Performance**: The decline of ultra - long - term credit bonds was higher than that of general - credit bonds and interest - rate bonds of the same maturity. The 7Y performance was generally better than that of the 10Y. The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes increased by 4.18BP, the yields of 10Y AAA/AA + urban investment bonds increased by 5.80BP and 7.79BP respectively, and the yield of 10Y AAA - bank Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 8.54BP, while the 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0.68BP [12]. 3.2 Yield Curve and Historical Quantiles - **Yield Curve Steepness**: The steepness of the 1 - 2 - year yield curve was the highest for all ratings, and the 2 - 3 - year steepness of low - grade bonds was also relatively high. For AA + medium - term notes, the slopes of the 1 - 2 - year, 2 - 3 - year, and 3 - 5 - year intervals were 0.1433, 0.0837, and 0.0748 respectively; for AA urban investment bonds, they were 0.1476, 0.1402, and 0.0864 respectively [13]. - **Historical Quantiles**: The protection cushion of 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds has increased, and they currently have a certain cost - effectiveness. From December 1 to December 5, 2025, the valuation yields to maturity of 1Y - AAA, 3Y - AAA, 5Y - AAA, 1Y - AA +, 3Y - AA +, 5Y - AA +, 1Y - AA, and 3Y - AA ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes were at the 27.27%, 39.87%, 43.38%, 23.34%, 35.74%, 38.84%, 20.04%, and 30.99% levels since 2024. The historical quantiles of their credit spreads were 7.85%, 19.21%, 22.31%, 7.02%, 12.80%, 14.04%, 6.81%, and 17.76% respectively [15]. 3.3 Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - **Yield Changes**: The yields of 1 - 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y AAA - bank Tier 2 capital bonds increased by 2.98BP, 3.18BP, 7.48BP, 7.65BP, 4.97BP, 6.64BP, and 8.54BP respectively. The part with a maturity of 4 years and above is still 45BP - 65BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025. Compared with the sharp decline at the end of July, the yield points of varieties with a maturity of over 2 years are higher than the previous round [18]. - **Trading Activity**: Last week, the long - and short - side forces in the market were relatively balanced, and the market fluctuated repeatedly. From December 1 to December 5, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was 100.00%, 5.00%, 50.00%, 0.00%, and 100.00% respectively; the average transaction duration was 4.62 years, 1.29 years, 2.23 years, 0.68 years, and 6.14 years respectively. The amplitude of transactions below the valuation was generally low, within 2.5BP, and the amplitude of discount transactions was also mostly within 3BP [19]. 3.4 Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Transactions - **Discount Transactions**: From December 1 to December 5, the proportion of discount transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 25.00%, 60.00%, 65.00%, 80.00%, and 57.50% respectively. About 30.5% of the discount transaction amplitudes were above 4BP, mainly individual bonds with credit flaws such as AVIC Industry - Finance, and there were also many discount transactions of Shenzhen Metro above 4BP [22]. - **Transactions Below Valuation**: The willingness to buy ultra - long - term credit bonds was not strong, and the focus of market trading was still on low - quality urban investment bonds. About 30% of the transactions below the valuation had an amplitude of 3BP or more, but the proportion of ultra - long - term credit bonds was not high. Transactions with an amplitude of 3BP or more were mainly 2 - 5Y AA(2) and AA - low - quality urban investment bonds [23][25]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior - **General - credit Bonds**: Public funds and wealth management products mainly increased their holdings of general - credit bonds in the short - and medium - term, mainly within 3 years. Last week, funds net - bought 59.40 billion yuan of credit bonds within 1 year and 53.40 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds, and were in a state of net - selling for credit bonds over 7 years. Wealth management products mainly net - bought 90.99 billion yuan of credit bonds within 1 year and 26.79 billion yuan of 1 - 3Y credit bonds [27]. - **Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds**: The selling pressure of public funds and insurance companies on Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has weakened, and the buying power of wealth management products is not strong. Other asset management products are the main force for increasing holdings. Last week, fund companies net - sold 93.9 billion yuan of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, insurance companies net - sold 40.1 billion yuan, and bank wealth management products net - bought 36 billion yuan. Only other products net - bought 197.4 billion yuan [27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the credit demand remains weak, with November's new credit expected to decrease by approximately 250 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling around 330 billion yuan [3][12] - The social financing scale for November is projected to be about 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 200 billion yuan [25][30] - The report suggests that the upcoming months will see a significant amount of fixed-term deposits maturing, which may lead to a further decline in risk-free interest rates for residents [5][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 4215.44, with a 52-week high of 4670.31 and a low of 3730.31 [1] Credit Market Analysis - New credit in November is expected to be around 330 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 250 billion yuan [12][19] - The demand for corporate loans is slightly improving, but overall credit demand remains low, particularly for residential loans due to weak consumer confidence [4][21] - The PMI for November shows slight improvement but remains below the threshold, indicating ongoing pressure in the corporate sector [12][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with significant maturing deposits and potential for margin improvement, such as Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [5][30] - It also suggests paying attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, including Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [5][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company has achieved cumulative shipments of over 10 million units for its Journey series, with its proprietary BPU® architecture showing a 246-fold performance improvement over six years. The new Journey®6 series, set for mass production in 2025, is the only domestic solution that meets the diverse needs of smart vehicles from L2 to full-scene urban driving [5][6] - The company is entering a rapid growth phase with its HSD (High Safety Driving) technology, which has been validated by the market and is now in mass production. The flagship Journey 6P, with a computing power of up to 560 TOPS, supports the large-scale deployment of HSD, with partnerships established with over 10 automotive brands and more than 20 models [6] - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 35.9 billion, 56.0 billion, and 81.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net losses of 70.3 million, 15.1 million, and 8.3 million yuan for the same years [7][9] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.89 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 51%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -7.025 billion yuan [9][12] - The company's operating income is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2024 to 2027, with a projected net profit margin improvement over the same period [12] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to increase significantly, reaching 95.56% by 2027, indicating a high level of leverage [12]

研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 北方华创(002371) 超高深宽比刻蚀助力 3D NAND 扩产 证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 457.46 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.24 | / 7.24 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）3,314 | / 3,312 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 468.00 / 318.60 | | 资产负债率(%) | 51.0% | | 市盈率 | 43.27 | | 第一大股东 | 北京七星华电科技集团 | | 有限责任公司 | | l 投资要点 预计中国大陆 2026 至 2028 年间设备支出将达 940 亿美元。 受益于晶圆厂区域化趋势以及数据中心和边缘设备中 AI 芯片需求 激增，SEMI 预计 2025 年全球 300mm 晶圆厂设备支出将首次超过 1,00 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量 篇》 - 2025.12.08 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国就业持续走弱 ⚫ 核心观点： 经济数据方面，11 月美国 ADP 就业数据显示，就业人数减少 3.2 万人。虽然 ADP 新增就业和非农新增就业的单月数据相关性不强，但 二者 3 个月移动平均值的线性关系显著，近期 ADP 就业数据不及预期 说明美国就业市场仍在走弱。除劳动力市场以外，美国其他经济活动 指标整体依然保持韧性。 市场方面，展望 2026 年，美元存在贬值压力。OBBBA 法案带来的 财政宽松加上降息进程尚未结束，AI 对就业的替代加剧了劳动力市场 的松动，从而导致了更低的短端利率，这对美元形成利空。 同时需关注日元升值的尾部风险。当前美元兑日元汇率已经显著 偏离的两国利差对应的水平，日元被低估。残差部分可以由 30 年日 债的期 ...

证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-12-09 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 2249.53 | | 52 周最高 | 2506.48 | | 52 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-12 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《有序推进现房销售试点 恢复居民购 房信心》 - 2025.12.03 房地产行业报告 （2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 推动高质量转型 多地"因城施策"稳预期 ⚫ 投资要点 国务院近期强调"深入实施城市更新行动"，将其与稳楼市、消除 安全隐患结合，要求 2026 年底前完成地市级城市更新专项调查，划 定保护底线。同时，"好房子"建设标准进一 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index is used to monitor the critical points of market trend changes and predict potential reversals in the micro-cap stock index[40][41] - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of micro-cap stock index constituents over a specific time window. The horizontal axis represents the percentage change in stock prices (e.g., from +10% to -10%), while the vertical axis represents the length of the review or forecast window (e.g., 10 to 20 trading days). For example, a horizontal value of 0.95 and a vertical value of 15 days indicates that if all constituent stocks drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value is 0.03[40][42] - **Key Methods**: - **Left Threshold Method**: Triggered a short signal on November 14, 2025, when the index closed at 0.925[43] - **Right Threshold Method**: Triggered a short signal on November 17, 2025, when the index closed at 0.8975[46] - **Dual Moving Average Method**: Triggered a short signal on November 25, 2025[48] - **Model Evaluation**: The diffusion index is effective in identifying critical points for market reversals and provides actionable signals for trading strategies[40][41] 2. Model Name: Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects 50 stocks with small market capitalization and low volatility from the micro-cap stock index constituents, aiming to achieve stable returns with reduced risk[8][35] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Stock Selection**: Identify stocks with the smallest market capitalization and lowest volatility within the micro-cap stock index[35] - **Rebalancing Frequency**: Rebalance the portfolio bi-weekly[35] - **Transaction Costs**: Assume a bidirectional transaction cost of 0.3%[35] - **Benchmark**: Use the Wind Micro-Cap Stock Index (8841431.WI) as the benchmark[35] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance in capturing excess returns, particularly in 2025, with a significant year-to-date (YTD) return[35] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - **Left Threshold Method**: Short signal triggered at 0.925 on November 14, 2025[43] - **Right Threshold Method**: Short signal triggered at 0.8975 on November 17, 2025[46] - **Dual Moving Average Method**: Short signal triggered on November 25, 2025[48] 2. Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - **2024 Return**: 7.07%, with an excess return of -2.93%[35] - **2025 YTD Return**: 72.07%, with a weekly excess return of 0.001%[35] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor uses the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio (trailing twelve months) to identify undervalued stocks[5][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the trailing twelve months (TTM) PE ratio for each stock - Take the reciprocal of the PE ratio to construct the factor[33] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power with a weekly rank IC of 0.237, significantly above its historical average of 0.016[5][33] 2. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor uses the inverse of the price-to-book ratio to identify undervalued stocks[5][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the price-to-book (PB) ratio for each stock - Take the reciprocal of the PB ratio to construct the factor[33] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows strong performance with a weekly rank IC of 0.213, well above its historical average of 0.034[5][33] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the profitability of companies to identify fundamentally strong stocks[5][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Use metrics such as return on equity (ROE) and net profit margin to construct the factor[33] - **Factor Evaluation**: Exhibits robust predictive power with a weekly rank IC of 0.185, outperforming its historical average of 0.022[5][33] 4. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on stocks with high dividend yields to capture stable income[5][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the dividend yield for each stock - Rank stocks based on their dividend yield to construct the factor[33] - **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well with a weekly rank IC of 0.179, exceeding its historical average of 0.022[5][33] 5. Factor Name: Single-Quarter ROE Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the return on equity for a single quarter to identify high-performing stocks[5][33] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ROE for the most recent quarter - Rank stocks based on their single-quarter ROE to construct the factor[33] - **Factor Evaluation**: Delivers strong results with a weekly rank IC of 0.163, above its historical average of 0.021[5][33] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. PE_TTM Inverse Factor - Weekly Rank IC: 0.237 - Historical Average Rank IC: 0.016[5][33] 2. PB Inverse Factor - Weekly Rank IC: 0.213 - Historical Average Rank IC: 0.034[5][33] 3. Profitability Factor - Weekly Rank IC: 0.185 - Historical Average Rank IC: 0.022[5][33] 4. Dividend Yield Factor - Weekly Rank IC: 0.179 - Historical Average Rank IC: 0.022[5][33] 5. Single-Quarter ROE Factor - Weekly Rank IC: 0.163 - Historical Average Rank IC: 0.021[5][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9] Core Insights - The company is accelerating the commercialization of AR waveguide technology through the acquisition of Dispelix, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026. This acquisition aims to enhance synergies between Dispelix's expertise in waveguide design and the company's strengths in optics and precision manufacturing [3] - The company is collaborating with ByteDance to launch the "Doubao AI Phone," which represents a shift from a "tool" to an "intelligent agent" through advanced AI capabilities [4] - The company is also involved in the development of the Quark AI Glasses S1, which features a high-precision audio pickup system to enhance AI voice interaction experiences [5] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 32.2 billion, 36 billion, and 40 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 2.5 billion, 3 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan for the same years [9][11] - The expected growth rates for revenue are 34% for 2025, 18% for 2026, and 12% for 2027, while net profit growth rates are projected at 143% for 2025, 41% for 2026, and 19% for 2027 [11][12]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on copper, driven by warehouse cancellations and supply-demand dynamics, suggesting that adjustments in price should be seen as buying opportunities [6] - The report also highlights the performance of precious metals, particularly silver, which has shown volatility but is expected to perform well in the long term due to ongoing de-dollarization trends and ETF inflows [5] - The aluminum market is following copper's upward trend, although it is experiencing seasonal demand weakness [7] - Tin prices are influenced by geopolitical factors, with expectations of long-term supply tightness despite recent price corrections [8] - Tungsten prices are reaching new highs due to supply constraints and export controls, indicating a persistent upward trend in the industry [9] - Investment suggestions include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [10] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 4.30%, ranking second among industry sectors [18] Prices - LME copper rose by 4.38%, aluminum by 1.24%, zinc by 1.56%, lead by 1.41%, and tin by 2.23% during the week [21] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 8,709 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 10,852 tons, indicating varied inventory trends across metals [35][37]