China Post Securities

Search documents
华海清科:盈利能力持续增强,平台化发展稳步推进-20250512
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 10:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in profitability and is steadily advancing its platform development strategy. The market share and sales scale of CMP products are increasing, with a projected revenue of 3.406 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.82% [3][4]. - The company has successfully acquired the controlling stake in Chiplet Company, enhancing its core technology in ion implantation and advancing its "equipment + service" platform strategy [5][7]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities in advanced packaging and compound semiconductors, with significant advancements in thinning and cutting equipment [4][8]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.732 billion yuan in 2025, 5.918 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.404 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.379 billion yuan, 1.751 billion yuan, and 2.256 billion yuan respectively [10][11]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 38.91% in 2025, 25.07% in 2026, and 25.12% in 2027 [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 5.83 yuan in 2025, 7.40 yuan in 2026, and 9.53 yuan in 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 27, 22, and 17 respectively [10][11].
非美国家合作加强,短期不必对出口过于悲观
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 09:32
Export Performance - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and seasonal levels, with a cumulative export value of $1,169.06 billion for the first four months, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year growth[11][1]. - The export growth was supported by a significant increase in trade with ASEAN and the EU, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, showing a 20.8% year-on-year growth in exports to this region[17][1]. - Exports to the US saw a notable decline of 21.03% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the US's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods[26][1]. Trade Dynamics - The trade policies of the US have led to a decrease in export share to the US, while shares to the EU and ASEAN have increased, indicating a strengthening of cooperation among non-US countries[14][1]. - The overall trade environment remains optimistic, with potential for policy adjustments in July that could influence export dynamics[39][1]. Key Risks - Future export performance faces uncertainties, particularly regarding the extension of the US tariff exemption period and the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China[42][1]. - Risks include the potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could adversely affect trade flows and economic stability[43][1].
海外宏观周报:市场静待贸易靴子落地-20250512
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 08:34
发布时间:2025-05-12 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《汇率压力降低放行货币政策,结构 性投资机会将再次展开》 - 2025.05.09 宏观观点 海外宏观周报:市场静待贸易靴子落地 l 核心观点 贸易问题持续占据头条,美英双方达成了一项有限的协议,降低 了部分产品的关税并提高了配额,但 10%的基础关税仍然存在。作为 极少数对美逆差的英国尚且如此,意味着美国对其他国家征收的 10% 基础关税更难取消,这部分关税或将长期存在。 中美谈判的细节尚未披露。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日表 示,在日内瓦周末的会谈中,美国与中国取得了"实质性进展",并将 于美国时间的周一宣布更多细节。参与谈判的美国贸易代表贾米 森·格里尔表示,"这是非常有建设性的两天,也许分歧不像人们之 前认为的那么大。"特朗普在社交媒体上写道,"今天与中国在瑞士举 行了非常好的会晤,讨论了很多事情,达成了很多共识。以一种 ...
高频数据跟踪:生产延续回落,物价走势分化
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 08:26
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-05-12 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债市行情从短端开始——货币政策 点评 20250507》 - 2025.05.07 固收周报 生产延续回落,物价走势分化 ——高频数据跟踪 20250511 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点:第一,受假期影响,生产热度仍呈现下行 趋势,化工、轮胎开工率处于季节性低位,焦炉产能利用率下降,螺 纹钢产量降至去年同期水平之下,高炉、沥青开工率有所回升。第二, 商品房成交面积回落,土地成交面积持续回升,均与去年同期水平接 近。第三,物价走势分化,原油价格低位回升,焦煤、螺纹钢下降, 铜价相对稳定;农产品整体延续季节性下行趋势,水果涨幅较大。短 期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市场恢复情况及大宗 商品价格走势。 生产:化工、轮胎开工率季节性下降,沥青、高炉回升 5 月 9 日当周,焦炉产能利用率下降 ...
有色金属行业报告:钨价持续上涨,供紧需强趋势明显
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 07:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that tungsten prices continue to rise due to a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with a significant reduction in mining quotas leading to a supply contraction of 4,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% compared to the previous year [7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around $9,300, influenced by trade pricing reversals and macroeconomic factors, with a notable increase in copper inventory at COMEX [6] - Aluminum prices have shown a downward trend due to weak expectations, although domestic demand remains strong with rapid inventory depletion [6] - Rare earth prices have surged due to tight supply and increased overseas prices, with domestic procurement activity remaining moderate [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 0.89%, aluminum by 0.39%, zinc increased by 1.14%, lead by 3.55%, and tin decreased by 0.65% [19] - Precious metals: COMEX gold decreased by 3.27%, silver by 1.66%, while NYMEX palladium increased by 0.25% and platinum decreased by 0.85% [19] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes: copper decreased by 3,989 tons, aluminum by 12,070 tons, zinc by 2,949 tons, lead by 9,115 tons, tin by 54 tons, and nickel by 3,111 tons [26]
上海机场:国际客流保持增长,业绩继续恢复-20250512
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 07:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [6][13]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in performance with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 12.0% growth year-on-year and net profit increasing by 107.1% [3][4]. - The growth in international passenger traffic continues, contributing to the recovery of both aviation and non-aviation revenues [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with projections of 24.4 billion, 29.4 billion, and 33.6 billion respectively [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 32.08 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 798 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 616 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 2.488 billion shares, with 1.919 billion shares in circulation [2]. - The largest shareholder is Shanghai Airport (Group) Co., Ltd. [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 12.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, up 107.1% [3][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 519 million yuan, a 34.5% increase [3][5]. - The company’s operating costs for 2024 were 9.656 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, while the cost structure remained stable [4][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The aviation revenue for 2024 was 5.56 billion yuan, up 27.1% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in passenger throughput [4]. - Non-aviation revenue was impacted by a decrease in commercial transfer rights and duty-free rental income, with commercial catering revenue declining by 15.5% to 2.055 billion yuan [4][9]. - Logistics business revenue increased by 13.3% to 1.68 billion yuan due to higher cargo station throughput [4].
有色金属行业报告(2025.05.05-2025.05.10):钨价持续上涨,供紧需强趋势明显
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 07:09
证券研究报告:有色金属|行业周报 发布时间:2025-05-12 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 有色金属行业报告 (2025.05.05-2025.05.10) 钨价持续上涨,供紧需强趋势明显 l 投资要点 贵金属:黄金宽幅震荡,等待中美关税谈判落地。本周金银呈现 出震荡行情,且波动较大,沪金主力虽有降波,但波动率依然处于历 史高位。等待中美关税谈判落地以及波动率调整到位后择机重新超配 黄金以及黄金股。未来,特朗普政府关税阴云仍在,贸易逆差缩减的 本质是美债买盘的衰减,美国长债利率上行概率加大,黄金的配置价 值凸显。具体来说,只要长端美债名义利率位于 4%以上,黄金上涨趋 ...
上海机场(600009):l上海机场披露2024年年报及2025年一季报:国际客流保持增长,业绩继续恢复
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 06:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price compared to the benchmark index of over 20% [6][13]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in performance with a significant increase in both revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by a rise in international passenger traffic [3][4]. - The demand for civil aviation passenger and cargo transport continues to grow, with an upward trend in hub airport business volume expected to persist [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 32.08 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 798 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 616 billion yuan [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 12.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, up 107.1% [3][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 519 million yuan, which is a 34.5% increase [3][5]. Financial Performance - The passenger throughput at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao airports showed significant growth, with Pudong airport handling 76.79 million passengers (up 41.0%) and Hongqiao airport 47.94 million passengers (up 12.8%) in 2024 [4]. - The company's operating costs for 2024 were 9.66 billion yuan, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, while the operating profit margin improved due to stable cost management and additional disposal gains [4][12]. - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 2.44 billion yuan, 2.94 billion yuan, and 3.36 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][9].
国轩高科(002074):2024年业绩符合预期,客户结构优化突破
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 06:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [10][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 35.392 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.207 billion yuan, up 28.56% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 263 million yuan, increasing by 125.86% [5][7]. - The gross margin for both power and energy storage batteries improved, with overseas revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, accounting for 31% of total revenue [5][6]. - The company ranked third globally in phosphate iron lithium battery installations with a market share of 6.18%, and its global power lithium battery installation volume grew by 73.8%, achieving a market share of 3.2% [6]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.61%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 45.55% year-on-year [6]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 46.621 billion yuan, 53.673 billion yuan, and 63.690 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 31.73%, 15.13%, and 18.66% [7][11]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.746 billion yuan, 2.330 billion yuan, and 2.907 billion yuan, with growth rates of 44.67%, 33.46%, and 24.77% [7][11]. Market Position - The company has made significant inroads in the power battery sector, securing contracts with high-end vehicle manufacturers and expanding its presence in the Asia-Pacific and European markets [6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its supply to A-class vehicles and has successfully delivered over twenty energy storage stations [6].
国轩高科:2024年业绩符合预期,客户结构优化突破-20250512
China Post Securities· 2025-05-12 06:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [10][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 35.392 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.207 billion yuan, up 28.56% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 263 million yuan, increasing by 125.86% [5][7]. - The gross margin for both power and energy storage batteries improved, with overseas revenue surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, marking a growth of over 70% year-on-year, accounting for 31% of total revenue [5][6]. - The company ranked third globally in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries with a market share of 6.18%, and eighth in global power lithium battery installed capacity with a year-on-year growth of 73.8% [6]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.61%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 45.55% year-on-year [6]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 46.621 billion yuan, 53.673 billion yuan, and 63.690 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 31.73%, 15.13%, and 18.66% [7][11]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 1.746 billion yuan, 2.330 billion yuan, and 2.907 billion yuan, with growth rates of 44.67%, 33.46%, and 24.77% respectively [7][11]. Market Position - The company has made significant inroads in the power battery sector, securing contracts with high-end vehicle manufacturers and expanding its market presence in Asia-Pacific and Europe-Africa [6]. - The company’s market share in China's power lithium battery installed capacity reached 4.59%, ranking fourth, which is an improvement from the previous year [6].