Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [41]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the brokerage sector experienced a mixed performance in May 2025, with the brokerage index rising by 1.02%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 1.85% [5][6]. - The report anticipates a stable operating environment for the brokerage industry in the second half of 2025, with overall profitability expected to remain steady alongside the capital market [39][41]. - The brokerage sector's average P/B ratio fluctuated between 1.294 and 1.372 times in May 2025, remaining below the historical average of 1.55 times since 2016 [10][36]. Summary by Sections 1. May 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index successfully filled a gap in early May but experienced a decline in the latter half of the month, ultimately underperforming major indices [5][6]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector was 1.303 times at the end of May, indicating a continued struggle to reach historical valuation levels [10][36]. 2. Key Market Factors Impacting May 2025 Performance - The report identifies several core market factors affecting the monthly performance of listed brokerages, including a decline in average daily trading volume and a decrease in brokerage business sentiment for the third consecutive month [19][21]. - Margin financing balances showed slight recovery, while investment banking activities reached a relative low point for the year, with equity financing dropping significantly [27][36]. 3. June 2025 Performance Outlook for Listed Brokerages - The report forecasts a potential improvement in proprietary trading performance in June, with expectations of a stable recovery in brokerage business sentiment [28][36]. - Overall, the report predicts a certain degree of growth in the monthly operating performance of listed brokerages in June 2025, driven by various market factors [36][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages with valuations significantly below the sector average and strong wealth management capabilities, as these firms are expected to outperform the market [39][41].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy, driven by consumption and investment, with the A-share market showing a steady upward trend, particularly in sectors like financial technology, software, and semiconductors [6][7][13][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for sustaining economic growth and the capital market's stability, which is crucial for investor confidence and market performance [24][25]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,455.97, up by 1.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.72% to 10,393.72 [4]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index are at 14.08 and 37.25, respectively, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [13][14]. International Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.15% to 11,247.58, reflecting a mixed performance in international markets [5]. Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's industrial output increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales grew by 6.4%, indicating a resilient industrial sector and a rebound in consumer spending [10]. - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.7%, although the real estate sector remains under pressure [10][11]. Sector Analysis - The report notes that the financial technology sector is leading the A-share market, with significant contributions from internet securities and software development [7][13]. - The gaming industry is experiencing a resurgence, with a record number of game approvals in June, suggesting strong demand for cultural consumption during the summer [15][16]. - The automotive sector is showing robust growth, with May production and sales figures indicating a year-on-year increase of over 11% [21][22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as internet services, software development, and semiconductors for short-term investment opportunities, given their strong performance and growth potential [13][14][24]. - In the automotive industry, the report recommends monitoring policies that promote vehicle upgrades and the adoption of new energy vehicles, which are expected to drive future growth [23][24]. AI and Semiconductor Industry - The AI sector is witnessing rapid innovation, with significant advancements in AI computing power and applications, particularly in smart driving and AI glasses [31][32][33]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand for self-sufficiency, with a focus on AI computing chips and advanced manufacturing processes [34][35]. Cultural Consumption Trends - The report highlights the rise of IP derivatives and cultural consumption, particularly among younger generations, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [17][18]. - The publishing sector remains stable, with consistent demand for educational materials, suggesting a defensive investment opportunity in state-owned publishing companies [17][18].

Market Overview - On June 25, the A-share market opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3429 points before closing at 3455.97 points, up 1.03%[6] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,393.72 points, up 1.72%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.11%[6] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 16,398 billion yuan, above the three-year average daily trading volume[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included sectors such as securities, software development, internet services, and semiconductors, while mining, oil, pesticides, and shipping showed weaker performance[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets experienced gains, with multi-financial, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors leading the increases[6] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.08 times and 37.25 times, respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation suitable for medium to long-term investments[3] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in securities, software development, internet services, and semiconductors in the short term[3] Economic Context - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment, with long-term capital inflows increasing and ETF sizes growing steadily[3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and international relations affecting the economic environment[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, in line with the overall market performance [1] Core Insights - The media sector has shown a significant performance increase, with a 6.54% rise from May 26 to June 24, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext [3][13] - The gaming industry is experiencing a favorable policy environment and robust market demand, with AI technology expected to enhance valuations and drive growth [10][11] - The IP derivatives market is emerging as a new consumer trend, driven by younger generations with different consumption philosophies [11] - The publishing sector remains stable with solid demand for educational materials, suggesting long-term investment opportunities in high-dividend state-owned companies [11] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Despite an overall decline in the media sector's performance in 2024, Q1 2025 shows notable improvement, with strong product launches positively impacting earnings [10] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from a combination of solid fundamentals and a more relaxed regulatory environment, alongside the integration of AI technologies [10] Market Review - From May 26 to June 24, 2025, the media sector ranked 5th among 30 industries, with 111 out of 141 stocks rising [3][13] - The gaming and film sub-sectors saw the highest increases, with gaming up 17.04% and film up 9.23% [14] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have recognized 404 enterprises as key cultural export companies for 2025-2026, indicating a focus on enhancing cultural exports [20] - The gaming industry is supported by new policies aimed at promoting overseas expansion and technological integration [22] Monthly Data Film Market - In May 2025, the domestic film market generated a box office of 1.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.03% but a month-on-month increase of 45.28% [24] - The average ticket price was 39.52 yuan, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [24] Game Market - The domestic gaming market reached a size of 28.051 billion yuan in May 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.86% [41] - The mobile gaming segment grew by 11.96% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer engagement [41][42]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support to boost and expand consumption in China, highlighting 19 key measures proposed by regulatory bodies [5][8] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a resilient industrial production and a significant rebound in social consumption, while investment and real estate sectors remain relatively weak [8][9] - The report identifies several sectors with strong investment opportunities, including AI, semiconductor, and automotive industries, driven by technological advancements and policy support [29][20][38] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,420.57 with a gain of 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.68% to 10,217.63 [3] - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with sectors like securities, batteries, and automotive leading the gains, while mining and oil sectors lagged [11][15] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 experienced slight declines, while the Hang Seng Index saw a notable increase of 2.06% [4] Industry Analysis - The automotive industry reported a significant increase in production and sales, with May figures showing a year-on-year growth of 11.65% in production and 11.15% in sales [18][19] - The report highlights the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector, with production and sales reaching 126.96 million and 130.72 million units respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% and 36.9% [20] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a revival, driven by domestic demand for self-sufficiency and the ongoing global supply chain challenges [29][33] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductor, and automotive, with specific recommendations for companies involved in AI chip production, smart driving technologies, and electric vehicles [34][38] - It emphasizes the potential for growth in the gold and aluminum sectors due to favorable market conditions and increasing demand [24][25] Economic Indicators - In May 2025, China's industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 6.4%, indicating a recovery in domestic consumption [8][9] - The report notes that the fixed asset investment growth rate was 3.7%, reflecting a divergence in economic performance across different sectors [8]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of economic reform and modernization in China, highlighting the need for a high-level socialist market economy and mechanisms to support high-quality economic development [5][9] - The A-share market is experiencing a moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment, with significant inflows from long-term funds [10][12] - The semiconductor and AI sectors are identified as key growth areas, with a focus on domestic innovation and self-sufficiency [30][34] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,381.58, with a slight increase of 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.43% to 10,048.39 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 13.85 and 36.04, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][12] International Market Performance - Major international indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.67% and the Nikkei up by 0.62%, reflecting varied global economic conditions [4] Industry Analysis - The automotive industry is showing positive trends, with production and sales of vehicles increasing by 11.65% and 11.15% year-on-year in May 2025, respectively [20][21] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a revival, driven by domestic demand for self-sufficiency and innovation, particularly in AI-related applications [30][34] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and dividend-paying stocks, which are expected to benefit from policy support and economic recovery [17][24] - Specific recommendations include investing in leading companies in the semiconductor and AI sectors, as well as those involved in consumer electronics and renewable energy [35][36]

Market Overview - On June 23, the A-share market opened lower but rose slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3348 points and closing at 3381.58 points, up 0.65%[4][9]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,048.39 points, up 0.43%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.39%[10][9]. - Total trading volume for both markets reached 11,471 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[4][17]. Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, software development, semiconductors, and energy metals, while sectors like liquor, aviation, engineering machinery, and electricity showed weaker performance[4][9]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in energy metals, shipping ports, and software development[9]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 13.85 times and 36.04 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[4][17]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in software development, semiconductors, banking, and chemical pharmaceuticals in the short term[4][17]. Economic Context - China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, driven by consumption and investment, with long-term capital inflows increasing and ETF sizes growing steadily[4][17]. - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite[4][17]. Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and geopolitical tensions affecting global trade and energy supplies[5][4].

农林牧渔 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 畜禽价格低迷，宠物食品 618 消费表 现亮眼 ——农林牧渔行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 盈利预测和投资评级 | 公司简称 | 24EPS 25EPS | | 25PE | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 3.30 | 3.76 | 10.26 | 增持 | | 普莱柯 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 26.60 | 增持 | | 秋乐种业 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 58.86 | 增持 | | 乖宝宠物 | 1.56 | 2.03 | 48.59 | 增持 | | 中宠股份 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 36.11 | 增持 | | 佩蒂股份 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 15.46 | 增持 | 农林牧渔相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -15% -10% -4% 1% 6% 12% 17% 22% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the stable operation of the capital market is the current policy's main theme, with a focus on maintaining a stable and active capital market to support economic recovery and investor confidence [1][15][20] - The report highlights a comprehensive set of financial policies introduced on May 7, 2025, by the People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Bureau, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to stabilize market expectations and enhance liquidity [16][21][25] - The report indicates that the securities industry experienced a significant revenue increase of 11.15% year-on-year in 2024, with a notable profit growth of 21.35%, and a further increase in Q1 2025 with revenue growth of 24.60% and net profit growth of 83.48% [8][14][27] Group 2 - The report provides a forward-looking analysis for 2025, predicting that brokerage business will see a recovery in activity, with retail brokerage contributing significantly to revenue growth, while proprietary trading is expected to revert to average levels after a recent increase [8][18][31] - The investment strategy section suggests that the securities sector may face a challenging environment in the second half of 2025, with performance pressures expected to increase, but overall profitability is anticipated to remain stable [8][4][38] - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms that are likely to perform well in a recovering market, as well as those with significant earnings elasticity and those with valuations below the sector average [8][4][39]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic collaboration between China and Russia in the context of evolving international dynamics, highlighting the need to maintain supply chain stability and support multilateral trade systems [5][8] - The macroeconomic environment in China shows signs of gradual recovery, with consumer spending and investment being the main drivers of growth, while the A-share market is expected to experience steady fluctuations [9][12] - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and dividend-paying assets for investment opportunities in the second half of 2025, driven by supportive policies and improving market conditions [15][30] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,359.90, down 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,005.03, down 0.47% [3] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 13.83 and 36.38 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][17] International Market Performance - Major international indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have experienced declines, with the Dow closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, and the S&P 500 at 3,801.78, down 0.45% [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines several industry strategies for the second half of 2025, focusing on technology self-sufficiency, boosting domestic consumption, and identifying dividend-paying assets as key investment themes [15][32] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted for its potential growth due to increasing demand for domestic production capabilities amid external pressures [26][34] Key Data Updates - The report includes updates on stock performance, with significant trading volumes indicating active market participation, and highlights the importance of monitoring market trends and external factors [7][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and telecommunications for potential investment opportunities, given their expected growth trajectories [23][30] - Specific companies within the semiconductor and AI sectors are identified as having strong growth potential, driven by technological advancements and market demand [27][34]