Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and future industry leadership, focusing on cyclical recovery and investment opportunities in emerging industries related to the mechanical sector [2][6]. - In November, the mechanical sector underperformed, with a decline of 5.02%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 1.78 percentage points, ranking 26th among 30 sectors [5][12]. - Key sub-sectors such as aerial work vehicles, other transportation equipment, and shipbuilding showed positive growth, while lithium battery equipment, forklifts, and photovoltaic equipment faced declines [5][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - As of November 25, 2025, the mechanical sector's decline of 5.02% was noted, with specific sub-sectors like aerial work vehicles and shipbuilding showing positive growth rates of 2.22%, 1.35%, and 0.31% respectively [5][12]. - The sector's valuation is at a high level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4, placing it in the 71st percentile of the past decade [17][20]. 2. Engineering Machinery - Sales of excavators reached 18,096 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.9%) [21][32]. - The report suggests that the engineering machinery sector is in a recovery phase, with leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG expected to see improved performance due to favorable domestic policies and increasing export competitiveness [44]. 3. Robotics - The production of industrial robots increased by 17.9% in October, reaching 57,858 units, with a cumulative production of 602,700 units for the year, reflecting a growth of 28.8% [45][48]. - The report highlights the potential of humanoid robots as a significant growth area, with companies like Ubiquity Robotics securing substantial orders, indicating a strong market demand [47][54]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a recovery, with ongoing improvements in profitability despite a recent adjustment in new ship orders [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in leading shipbuilding companies to capitalize on the sector's upward trend [6]. 5. AIDC Equipment - The AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) equipment sector is noted for its growth, with recommendations to focus on companies benefiting from this trend [6][54].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,870.02 | 0.87 | | 深证成指 | | 12,777.31 | 1.53 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,490.40 | 0.95 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,362.98 | 0.99 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,954.60 | 1.25 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

分析师：郑婷 登记编码：S0730524110001 zhengting@ccnew.com 投资要点： 第1页 / 共12页 河南研究：经济数据跟踪（2025 年 10 月） 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 全国经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同 比增长 4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.9%，全国固定资产 投资（不含农户）累计同比下降 1.7%，房地产开发投资累计同比 下降 14.7%。总体来看，10 月份"反内卷"治理成效有所显现，高 技术制造业发展支撑经济韧性，但同时主要经济指标均有回落，内 需不足问题持续显现。往后看，主要经济指标回暖仍受到政策效应 退坡、前期需求透支、地产深度调整等系列因素阻力，但财政已通 过提前下达专项资金的方式进行托举，11 月人民日报文章《保持财 政政策取向不变力度不减》也指出"我国财政资源和举债空间仍然 充裕"。因此，预期四季度经济整体仍较具韧性。 河南省经济运行情况：2025 年 10 月份，河南省规模以上工业增加 值同比增 ...

Market Overview - The automotive industry index increased by 14.79% as of November 21, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 0.38 percentage points and 1.61 percentage points respectively [11][12] - The automotive sector's performance was strong in the first half of 2025 but became more aligned with the broader market in the second half [11][12] - The majority of sub-sectors showed positive growth, with motorcycles and other segments leading the gains [17][18] Financial Performance - The automotive industry achieved a revenue of CNY 36,976.27 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.35%, and a net profit of CNY 1,363.61 billion, up 9.98% [30] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the industry reported revenues of CNY 28,712.84 billion, reflecting a 10.73% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of CNY 1,165.36 billion, up 10.72% [30][31] - The industry’s gross margin was 15.83% in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decline from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 4.29% [33] Passenger Vehicle Segment - The passenger vehicle market is expected to reach record sales in 2025, driven by policy support and increased penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) [43] - NEV retail sales reached 10.15 million units from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with a market share of 52.73% [45][50] - The market structure is shifting towards domestic brands, which captured nearly 70% of the market share by September 2025, while foreign brands are losing ground [50][51] Commercial Vehicle Segment - The commercial vehicle market showed signs of recovery in 2025, with production and sales increasing by nearly 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters [5] - The growth in the commercial vehicle sector is driven by policies promoting vehicle replacements and the rising sales of new energy commercial vehicles [5][6] Automotive Parts Sector - The national strategy emphasizes "intelligent and connected" technologies as the main axis for upgrading the automotive industry [5] - The penetration of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is expected to drive market expansion and domestic substitution in core hardware [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the automotive sector, recommending key companies in the passenger vehicle segment such as BYD, Changan Automobile, and Great Wall Motors [6] - In the commercial vehicle segment, Yutong Bus is recommended, along with a focus on China National Heavy Duty Truck [6] - For the automotive parts sector, companies like Feilong Co., Top Group, and Desay SV are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [52] Core Insights - The brokerage sector index experienced a range-bound fluctuation in October 2025, with a decline of 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [4][7] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.510 and 1.580 times, closing at 1.510 times at the end of October [11] - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages is expected to decline in November 2025, with a forecasted drop to mid-low levels for the year [47][48] Summary by Sections 1. October 2025 Brokerage Sector Review - The brokerage index maintained a range-bound fluctuation with a significant reduction in volatility, closing down 0.73% for the month [4][7] - A total of 42 listed brokerages saw 17 increase in stock prices, with notable gains from Dongxing Securities (10.08%) and Changjiang Securities (6.27%) [8] - The average P/B ratio for the sector was 1.510 times, indicating a slight decrease from previous months [11] 2. Key Market Factors Affecting October 2025 Performance - Increased volatility in equity markets and a rebound in fixed income markets led to a decline in proprietary trading performance [6] - The average daily trading volume in October was 21,640 billion, down 10.5% month-on-month [25] - The margin financing balance reached a historical high of 24,864 billion, reflecting a stable outlook among investors [32] 3. November 2025 Performance Outlook - Proprietary trading is expected to face pressure due to a comprehensive market correction, with a forecasted decline in monthly investment returns [40][43] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to see a slight recovery in brokerage business due to an increase in trading days, despite a decrease in average daily trading volume [44] - The investment banking sector is expected to remain stable, with equity financing slightly declining and debt financing rebounding [46] 4. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector index has shown signs of further downward adjustment, with a significant gap from the average valuation since 2016 [48] - It is recommended to focus on leading brokerages with strong wealth management capabilities and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [50]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various industries, with a focus on the capital market's role in supporting economic growth and innovation [5][19][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and investment in emerging industries, particularly in technology and infrastructure [5][19][24] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,836.77 with a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12,585.08 [3] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.77 and 46.14, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [8][14] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines of 0.45% and 0.15% respectively [4] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 2.38% to 25,220.02, reflecting broader market challenges [4] Industry Strategies - The report outlines various industry strategies, including the focus on financing coordination and the continuation of industry prosperity [6][19] - The copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their strong demand and pricing stability, with copper prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and increased demand from green energy initiatives [20][21] - The AI and semiconductor industries are projected to experience significant growth, driven by advancements in technology and increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [24][31] Financial Sector Insights - The securities industry is expected to maintain a strong performance, with a projected increase in equity financing and stable brokerage revenues [18][19] - The report notes that the first three quarters of 2025 saw a significant recovery in the performance of listed securities firms, with revenues up 42.55% year-on-year [17][18] Emerging Industries - The report indicates that the ice and snow industry in China is set to exceed 1 trillion yuan in scale, reflecting the growth potential in niche markets [5][8] - The focus on new energy vehicles and related infrastructure is expected to drive demand for lithium battery equipment, with significant investment opportunities identified [28][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the copper and aluminum sectors, as well as those involved in AI and semiconductor technologies, due to their strong growth prospects [20][24][31] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Zijin Mining, Yunnan Aluminum, and leading AI firms such as Hikvision and Huya [20][24][36]

Market Overview - On November 24, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3816 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.37% to 12585.08 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 17,406 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day but above the three-year average[3] Sector Performance - Industries such as shipbuilding, cultural media, aerospace, and software development showed strong performance, while energy metals, insurance, and fertilizer sectors lagged[3] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with significant inflows into shipbuilding, aerospace, and internet services[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.77 times and 46.14 times, respectively, indicating they are above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current market conditions suggest a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, with a continued rebalancing of market styles between cyclical and technology sectors[3] - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid excessive trading, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances that could impact the recovery process[4]

Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry, highlighting the sector's robust performance relative to the CSI 300 index [1][4]. Group 1: Performance and Market Review - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of 77.88%, outperforming the CSI 300's 16.01% increase [21]. - The sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals have shown varied performance, with nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony leading with a rise of 106.62%, followed by lithium at 102.88% and tungsten at 97.82% [21][23]. - The upstream mining sector reported revenues of CNY 306.97 billion, a 14.20% year-on-year increase, and profits of CNY 93.28 billion, up 33.30% [27][28]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper supply is constrained due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is bolstered by investments in energy and electric vehicles, leading to an upward price trend [6][8]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing tight supply with limited new capacity, and the average price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around CNY 22,000 per ton in 2026 [6][8]. - The copper segment's revenue for Q3 2025 reached CNY 1,443.86 billion, a 5.05% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 44.60% to CNY 69.91 billion [32]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The gold sector is benefiting from central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with revenues for Q3 2025 reaching CNY 291.17 billion, a 34.35% increase year-on-year, and net profits rising 63.03% to CNY 14.49 billion [37]. - Silver, with both industrial and monetary attributes, is expected to show greater price elasticity, supported by a slight increase in global demand [6][8]. Group 4: Rare Metals - The rare metals sector has shown significant profit growth, with revenues for Q3 2025 reaching CNY 79.93 billion, a 12.47% increase, and net profits soaring 200.11% to CNY 4.99 billion [41]. - The nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony segment reported revenues of CNY 130.87 billion, a 23.79% increase, with net profits rising 25.45% to CNY 9.31 billion [41]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in copper, aluminum, gold, and superhard materials, emphasizing the strategic value of these resources in the current market environment [6][7].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuation of investment and financing coordination development in the securities industry, predicting a sustained industry boom in 2026 [8][16][20] - The report maintains a "market synchronization" investment rating for the securities sector, highlighting the expected strong performance of the equity market in 2026 [8][16][20] Group 1: "14th Five-Year Plan" Recommendations - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the direction for capital market reform, emphasizing the need for a more inclusive and adaptable market system [14][15] - The plan aims to enhance the coordination of investment and financing functions within the capital market, promoting high-quality development [15][20] Group 2: 2025 Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, listed securities firms showed significant recovery, with revenues increasing by 42.55% year-on-year and net profits rising by 62.38% [8][16][20] - The main drivers of this performance were retail brokerage, margin financing, and directional equity business, while fixed income and asset management businesses experienced declines [8][16][20] Group 3: 2026 Business Outlook - The brokerage business is expected to maintain high levels of activity, with average daily stock trading volumes remaining at historical highs [8][16][20] - Investment banking is projected to see a continued recovery in equity financing, while debt financing will also grow, contributing positively to overall revenue [8][16][20] - The asset management sector is anticipated to experience narrow fluctuations in revenue, with limited impact on overall performance [8][16][20] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading listed securities firms that are likely to play a pivotal role in the sector's recovery [8][16][20] - It also highlights the importance of mid-sized firms with differentiated competitive advantages and those with strong performance resilience [8][16][20] - Key recommended companies include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, GF Securities, Dongwu Securities, Caitong Securities, and Guojin Securities [8][16][20] Group 5: Market Trends - The securities sector is expected to experience wide fluctuations in 2026, with average valuations around 1.54 times P/B, consistent with the average over the past decade [8][16][20] - The report notes that the securities index has shown a range-bound performance, underperforming the CSI 300 index [8][16][20]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the communication industry, highlighting its growth potential and favorable valuation levels [1][5][12] - The communication industry index has shown significant performance, ranking second among 30 major industry indices with a 60.87% increase as of November 20, 2025 [12][14] - The report emphasizes the optimistic outlook for AI-related developments, particularly in AI computing and cloud services, which are expected to drive industry growth [4][5][45] Market Review and Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the communication industry achieved a total revenue of CNY 19,753.67 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.30%, while net profit reached CNY 1,886.40 billion, up 6.95% [18] - The overall gross margin for the communication industry was 28.45%, with a net margin of 10.19% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating stable profitability [19] - The telecommunications operators segment reported a revenue of CNY 14,819.21 billion, growing by 0.57%, and a net profit of CNY 1,548.98 billion, increasing by 4.30% [35] Segment Performance - The optical communication segment (including optical modules, devices, and chips) saw a revenue of CNY 795.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.14%, with net profit soaring by 116.86% [41] - The telecommunications equipment segment recorded a revenue of CNY 1,390.0 billion, growing by 11.2%, while the consumer electronics components segment also grew by 11.1% [21] - The cable segment achieved a revenue of CNY 464.54 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.99%, driven by increasing demand across multiple applications [46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the optical module/device/chip sector, such as NewEase, Huagong Technology, and Guangxun Technology, due to their strong growth prospects [5][41] - For AI mobile phones, companies like Xunwei Communication and ZTE are highlighted as key players to watch [5][41] - The telecommunications operators, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, are recommended for their stable operations and high dividend yields [5][41]