2025 年 2 月 区域经济专题 2024 年中国各省经济成绩单 ——经济大省承压但仍具韧性，中西部亮点突出 本期要点 2024 年各省 GDP 增速大多略有回调，经济大省依然承担"挑大梁"重任，整 体看 GDP 规模排名变化不大。2024 年各省经济排名变化不大，上海、北京、内蒙 古三省 GDP 排名上升。分区域看，化债重点省份经济增速承压，经济大省表现出一 定的韧性，长三角经济增速整体好于珠三角，高新技术和新兴产业是增速领跑的主 要贡献力量。就目标完成情况看，共有 23 省份未实现预期增速目标，其中中西部 省份居多，2025 年地方层面对主要经济目标的设立相对谨慎，各省 GDP 加权目标增 速为 5.3%，相比于去年略有下调。 多数省份工业生产边际改善，中西部地区整体领先，企业"增收不增利"现 象突显。受"两重两新"政策和"抢出口"拉动，全国工业生产保持较快增长， 以装备制造业和资源品为主要优势的中西部地区工业生产增速领先，东部地区的 江苏、山东等经济大省"压舱石"作用显著。但价格水平的持续低迷以及"内卷 式竞争"对企业盈利形成压制，工业生产"增收不增利"现象突显。稳增长政策 持续发力下 2025 年全 ...

8 2025 2024 年 年第 2 月 4 17 期 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张瀚文 hwzhang@ccxi.com.cn 货币供给增速边际回升，一揽子增量政策 效果显现，2024 年 11 月 12 日 政府债持续支撑社融，M2 增速触底回升， 2024 年 10 月 15 日 M1 同比将至历史新低，支持性货币政策有 望更加宽松，2024 年 9 月 14 日 日 金融数据点评 信贷实现"开门红"，但内生需求仍有待改善 新增人民币贷款触历史新低，政策亟需发 力提振有效需求，2024 年 8 月 14 日 货币供给及社融增速触及历史新低，微观 主体信心偏弱财政需进一步发力，2024 年 7 月 15 日 政府债支撑新增社融，M1 增速创历史新低， 2024 年 6 月 17 日 新增社融与M1 增速均为负，财政发力必要 性进一步提升，2024 年 5 月 15 日 信贷与政府债拖累社融增速改善，M1 同比 低位运行仍需关注，2024 年 4 月 15 日 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Overview - In January 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.1% in the previous month, and rose by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to 0.0% previously[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained at -2.3% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, and the month-on-month decline slightly widened to -0.2% from -0.1%[2] Group 2: Seasonal and Policy Influences - The January CPI increase was weaker than seasonal expectations, which typically see an average month-on-month rise of 1.1% during the Spring Festival months[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous increase for four months, indicating some effectiveness of policies implemented since September 2024[3] Group 3: Sector Contributions - Key contributors to the CPI increase included food and beverage, transportation, education, culture, and entertainment, with respective year-on-year growth rates rising by 0.6%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.5%[3] - Service consumption prices, particularly in tourism and household services, outperformed seasonal trends, with increases of 11.6%, 5.7%, and 1.5% month-on-month for various service categories[3] Group 4: Commodity Price Dynamics - Food prices rose by 0.4% year-on-year but were weaker than seasonal performance, with pork prices showing a modest recovery[6] - International crude oil prices increased, contributing approximately 0.1 percentage points to the CPI rise, with domestic gold and gasoline prices up by 3.0% and 2.5% respectively[6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The continuation of price recovery is contingent on effective policy measures and fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure and industrial demand[11] - The PPI is expected to remain under pressure unless stricter industry regulations are introduced to support supply-side improvements[11]

专题研究 2025 年 3 月 5 日 热点点评 2025 年地方债务与财政领域的走势与关注 ——全国两会精神学习系列之二 2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在北 京开幕，国务院总理李强作 2024 年《政府工作报告》。《政府工作 报告》将今年 GDP 增速预期目标设定为 5%左右，并强调实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立 后破，系统集成、协同配合，充实完善政策工具箱，根据形势变化 动态调整政策，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。其中， 实施更加积极的财政政策，今年预算赤字率首次上升至 4%左右， 赤字规模 5.66 万亿、较去年增加 1.6 万亿，地方新增专项债安排 4.4 万亿元、较去年增加 0.5 万亿，同时今年开始发行 1.8 万亿特别国债。 此外，《政府工作报告》还提出动态调整债务高风险地区名单，支 持打开新的投资空间，一般公共预算支出规模比上年增加 1.2 万亿， 大力提振消费、提高投资效益，深化财税金融体制改革等。结合 《政府工作报告》和《关于 2024年中央和地方预算执行情况与 2025 年中央和地方预算草案的报告》，我们认为 ...

100-1 2025 年 3 月 热点点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 燕 翔 xyan@ccxi.com.cn 张瀚文 hwzhang@ccxi.com.cn 【从地方两会看2025 年中国经济】，地方两会 系列二，2025 年 2 月 18 日 【筑底企稳、稳中求进的中国经济】，2024 年 宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与2025 年展望， 2025 年 1 月 26 日 【中央经济工作会议的六大看点】，中央经济 工作会议点评，2024 年 12 月 10 日 【7 月政治局会议的五大关注点】——2024 年 7 月政治局会议点评，2024 年 7 月 31 日 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 12 日 2025 年政府工作报告的八大关注点 ——全国两会精神学习系列之一 2025 年 3 月 5 日上午 9 时，十四届全国人大三次会议在人民大会 堂开幕，国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the banking industry, indicating that the overall credit quality will not undergo significant changes in the next 12 to 18 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Regulatory policies are guiding the banking sector to enhance support for key areas and weak links, while optimizing management systems to promote high-quality financial development [5][6]. - The banking sector is experiencing a slowdown in asset growth, with a focus on credit allocation towards emerging industries and key sectors, while maintaining a stable liability structure [5][13]. - Despite a slight increase in net profit due to reduced provisioning, the narrowing interest margin continues to pose challenges for future profitability growth [5][40]. - Asset quality indicators are improving due to multiple policies, but pressures remain from the slow recovery of the real economy and potential credit risks [5][47]. - Liquidity remains ample in the market, although there is a trend of differentiation among various banking institutions [5][56]. Industry Policy - The regulatory framework emphasizes three main tasks: promoting development, strengthening regulation, and preventing risks, with a focus on supporting key sectors and resolving risks in real estate and local debts [6][7]. - Policies have been introduced to guide financial institutions in supporting small and micro enterprises, advanced manufacturing, and other key areas [6][7]. - The regulatory environment has been adjusted to enhance the capital replenishment mechanisms for banks, particularly for state-owned banks [6][7]. Business Operations - As of the end of 2023, the total assets and liabilities of domestic banking institutions reached 409.70 trillion yuan and 375.80 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting a growth of 10.11% and 10.22% year-on-year [13]. - By September 2024, total assets and liabilities grew to 431.55 trillion yuan and 395.95 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.33% and 5.36% respectively [13]. - The asset structure is being optimized, with a rising proportion of loans in total assets, indicating a focus on liquidity and profitability [17]. Financial Condition Analysis - In 2023, net profit for commercial banks was 2.38 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.23%, while the capital return rate and asset return rate were 8.93% and 0.70% respectively [45]. - By September 2024, net profit reached 1.87 trillion yuan, showing a modest growth of 0.48% year-on-year [45]. - The non-performing loan balance increased to 3.38 trillion yuan by September 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.72% [47].

| 目录 | | --- | www.ccxi.com.cn 编号：2025-AM02 2025 年 2 月 27 日 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 正文 | 2 | | 声明 | 8 | jqxu@ccxi.com.cn 负责人 结构融资部 董事总经理 王 立 010-66428877-523 lwang03@ccxi.com.cn 结构融资部 评级总监 付春香 021-60330927 cxfu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 定期报告 资产证券化 联络人 作者 结构融资部 许嘉琦 021-60330988 发行规模同比明显增加，发行成本持续下行，二级市 场交易活跃度有所下滑 ——企业资产支持证券产品报告（2025 年 1 月） 要点 ◼ 发行情况：2025 年 1 月共发行企业资产支持证券 125 单，合计发行规模 1,053.27 亿 元。与上月相比，发行数量减少 72 单，发行规模下降 39.41%；与上年同期相比，发 行数量增加 44 单，发行规模上升 72.67%。发行产品涉及的基础资产类型主要为企 业融资租赁、供应链、个人消费金融、CMBS 和汽车融资租赁等。融资成 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 1 绍兴市债务情况 | 2 | | 2 绍兴市高债务率形成的原因 | 3 | | 3 绍兴市债务滚续压力分析 | 7 | | 结论 | 8 | 联络人 作者 政府公共评级部 夏 敏 mxia@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 魏 芸 ywei@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 基础设施投融资⾏业 绍兴债务之谜：区域债务与经济发展的博弈 摘要 1 行业研究 n 近年来，绍兴市政府及城投有息债务均大幅增长，2018~2023 年复合增长率 分别为 16.02%和 20.71%，且城投有息债务占全省的比重高于地方政府债券 的占比。从全省各地市来看，绍兴市的区域债务规模在全省 11 个地市中排 名第三，但广义债务率全省最高，且自 2021 年以来保持快速增长趋势。下属 区县中，诸暨市的广义债务率排名首位，越城区位居末位。 n 绍兴市近年来大力推进城市化进程以及大规模的基础设施建设，特别是在交 通基建、生态环保、园区产业升级等方面投入了大量的资金，是导致绍兴市 地方债务规模扩大的主要原因之一； ...

Monetary Policy Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, with potential for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates[2] - The report emphasizes the need for macro policy coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments[7] Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains insufficient, and risks are still prevalent, with the manufacturing PMI showing a significant drop in January compared to previous years[3] - The external environment has worsened, with increased uncertainty impacting economic stability, as highlighted by the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent decisions[3] Interest Rate and Inflation Trends - The average interest rate for newly issued loans was approximately 3.3% in December, down about 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a trend of declining financing costs[9] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have both shown a downward trend, keeping inflation pressures within controllable limits[4] Policy Tools and Framework - The PBOC is enhancing its monetary policy toolbox, including the introduction of new instruments to support capital market development and economic recovery[6] - The report indicates a focus on improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation, particularly in emerging sectors like new infrastructure and green development[11] Cost Reduction Measures - The report stresses the importance of reducing financing costs for enterprises and households, with ongoing reforms in deposit interest rates to facilitate this[9] - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.53%, indicating significant pressure on banks' profitability due to the lag in adjusting deposit rates[9]

Revenue Performance - General public budget revenue in 2024 was 21,970.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but below the initial target of 3.3%, resulting in a shortfall of 424.8 billion CNY[5] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, significantly lower than the initial target of 0.1%, with a shortfall of 871.2 billion CNY[6] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in 2024 was 28,461.2 billion CNY, growing by 3.6% year-on-year but still below the target of 4.0%, resulting in a shortfall of 87.8 billion CNY[10] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 0.2% year-on-year, far below the initial target of 18.6%, with a shortfall of 187 billion CNY[11] Fiscal Deficits - The overall fiscal revenue fell short of the initial budget by approximately 1.3 trillion CNY, with a record high deficit of 10.4 trillion CNY between actual revenue and expenditure[14] - Debt service expenditure reached a historical high of 1,287.7 billion CNY, accounting for 4.5% of total fiscal expenditure, indicating significant pressure on fiscal sustainability[26] Economic Challenges - Tax revenue declined by 3.4% year-on-year, with major tax categories like domestic VAT and corporate income tax decreasing by 3.8% and 0.5%, respectively[17] - Non-tax revenue surged by 25.4%, reaching a historical high of 20.36% of total revenue, raising concerns about its sustainability and impact on the business environment[20] 2025 Outlook - Fiscal revenue is expected to remain under pressure due to weak domestic demand and external uncertainties, with a projected budget deficit exceeding 14 trillion CNY[29] - Many provinces have lowered their fiscal revenue growth targets for 2025, with an average expected growth of 2.9% for general public budgets, reflecting economic pressures[30]