运筹帷幄决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2571.60 万吨，环比降 50.80 万吨，再度回落；其中澳矿到货环比降 132.00 万 吨，而巴西矿则是微降 17.10 万吨，高位平稳运行；而非澳巴矿则是环比增 98.30 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运弱稳运行，全球 19 港矿石发运总量为 3046.70 万吨，环比微降 15.07 万吨。主流矿 商发运延续下降，四大矿商合计发运环比减 92.64 万吨；细分地区看澳矿减 117.68 万吨，延续低位，而巴 西矿增 115.79 万吨，再度回升；而非澳巴矿环比微降 13.18 万吨，平稳运行。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量短期回落，但降幅不大，海外矿石供应延续趋稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上月末值 | 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All stock indices fluctuated upwards today. The half - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1.8499 trillion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3]. - In July, the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed, and the supply - demand relationship in some industries improved, with prices showing positive changes. Policy support and positive expectations from anti - involution policies, along with the suspension of overseas uncertainty risks, jointly promoted the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite [3]. - Considering that some stocks have already achieved significant gains, there is a need for technical consolidation in the later market. In the short term, there is a possibility of consolidation and accumulation for stock indices, but in the long - term, the upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. Currently, the stock market's risk appetite is rising, and it is expected that stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. - The current implied volatility of options is within the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On August 11, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.07% to close at 2.912; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.45% to close at 4.202; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.56% to close at 4.339; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.43% to close at 4122.51; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.55% to close at 6943.94; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.05% to close at 6.464; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.06% to close at 2.583; the GEM ETF rose 1.95% to close at 2.357; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.42% to close at 2.934; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.03% to close at 2789.90; the STAR 50ETF rose 0.64% to close at 1.10; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.65% to close at 1.08 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 88.43 (previous day: 92.32), and the position PCR was 94.14 (previous day: 95.22) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in August 2025 was 11.66%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.08% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to different types of options, such as the trend, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and term - structure of at - the - money implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. For example, there are charts showing the trend of SSE 50ETF and the volatility of SSE 50ETF options [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and mid - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.10% to 15,670 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, with high supply pressure. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night of last Friday, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price of the 2509 contract rising slightly by 1.39% to 11,660 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the synthetic rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream auto market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Financial technology is revolutionizing the futures industry, impacting trading methods, risk management, service models, and market competition. It offers opportunities such as efficiency improvement, innovation, and risk management optimization but also brings challenges like regulatory issues and new risks [2][14][15] - The futures industry must embrace financial technology, actively transform, and strengthen risk management and regulatory compliance to achieve sustainable development [13][14][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Technology in the Futures Industry - Application Status - Financial technology applications in the futures industry include big data, cloud computing, AI, and blockchain, which optimize trading processes, enhance risk management, and improve customer experience [2] - Big data enables comprehensive data collection and analysis for better trading decisions and personalized services [3] - Cloud computing provides flexible computing resources, secure data storage, and cost - effective solutions [3] - AI is used in intelligent trading systems, risk management, and customer service [4] - Blockchain offers transparency, security, and efficiency in trading, settlement, and data sharing [4][5] Financial Technology's Impact on the Futures Industry - AI and algorithm trading have increased trading efficiency, with the global algorithm trading proportion rising from less than 20% to over 50% in 10 years, but also bring new problems [5] - Blockchain technology rebuilds trust and simplifies clearing processes, reducing fraud and operational risks [6] - Cloud computing and big data upgrade infrastructure and empower decision - making, improving customer satisfaction [6] - Financial technology drives business model innovation, including smart investment advisors for retail clients and integrated service platforms for institutional clients, as well as new derivative products [7][9] Financial Technology - Risk Management Opportunities and Challenges - Financial technology provides real - time and multi - dimensional risk management capabilities, such as AI - based risk analysis and blockchain - based traceability [9] - Quantified hedging strategies can be refined with financial technology, but algorithmic trading may cause market volatility, and technical dependence poses systemic risks [10] Financial Technology and Futures Industry Integration Directions - Quantum computing may revolutionize quantitative hedging models, but large - scale commercialization is restricted by technology and cost [10] - Sustainable finance and green futures are emerging, with financial technology playing a role in carbon management and green project traceability [11] Futures Industry Transformation in the Financial Technology Era - The industry faces intensified competition, upgraded customer demands, and prominent compliance risks, making transformation necessary [11][12] - Transformation paths include technology investment, talent cultivation, risk management system reconstruction, regulatory adaptation, and ecological cooperation [13][14] Conclusion - Financial technology is reshaping the futures industry, bringing both opportunities and challenges. All parties need to collaborate to achieve high - quality development [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in H1 2025, with GDP growing 5.3% year - on - year, and new industries maintaining rapid development. It is expected that the pro - growth policies will be further strengthened in H2 [4][5] - The futures market has seen significant growth in H1 2025, with an increase in new and effective customers, and an improvement in the customer structure [5] - The gold price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading", "Trump 2.0", and central bank gold purchases are expected to support the price [6] - The bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, and the relative value of credit bonds increased [19][26] - The A - share market has different views, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and avoiding some high - valuation sectors, while others believe it is in a bull - market relay with short - term resistance [30] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1% [1] - In June 2025, the growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous period and the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Five futures exchanges will implement the "Programmed Trading Management Measures" from October 9, 2025, to strengthen supervision [2] - In July 2025, CPI turned from a decline to an increase month - on - month, and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed [3] - In H1 2025, the number of new and effective futures customers increased, and the customer structure improved [5] - A number of major foreign investment projects have made progress, and new policies to attract foreign investment will be introduced [5] 3.2.2 Metals - The gold futures price reached a new high, and factors such as "interest - rate cut trading" and central bank gold purchases support the price [6] - The inventory of some metals in the London Metal Exchange changed, with zinc inventory hitting a new low and nickel inventory reaching a new high [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Chile's largest copper mine may resume partial underground operations after an accident [8] - In late July, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased compared to the previous period [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - International oil prices continued to decline due to OPEC+ production increase [9] - Speculators reduced their net long positions in crude oil futures [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity to prevent large fluctuations [11] - The pig price was low, and the revenue of listed pig enterprises decreased [11] - The FAO food price index reached a new high in July [11] - Some countries and regions adjusted their agricultural product import policies, which may affect prices [11][13] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and last week, the central bank had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - In July 2025, CPI and PPI showed different trends, and the National Bureau of Statistics provided explanations [15] - The "8·11 exchange - rate reform" has improved the market - oriented level of the RMB exchange rate [15] - The regulatory authorities will strengthen the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market without large - scale IPO expansion [16] - The issuance scale of new science - innovation bonds reached 880.659 billion yuan in three months [16] - The real - estate market showed signs of recovery, and some regions optimized housing purchase policies [17] 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - After the implementation of the new bond VAT rule, the bond market showed an overall volatile and slightly stronger trend [19] - The yields of some bonds changed, and the prices of some bonds rose or fell [19][20][21] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose [23] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - The scale of south - bound dim - sum bonds is expected to expand, and the secondary - market liquidity may increase [25] - The convertible bond valuation is at a high level, and the equity market in August has an upward environment [25] - The central bank will be more cautious about policy - rate cuts, and structural policies will be the main focus [25] - The relative value of credit bonds increased after the implementation of the new bond VAT rule [26] - An atypical dumbbell - shaped allocation strategy is recommended for the equity market [26] - The global currency system has hidden risks, and gold may become a substitute for the US - dollar reserve [26] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - Nearly 50 A - share companies proposed mid - term dividends, with a total dividend of over 72 billion yuan [29] - Hong Kong's investment company has invested in over 100 projects, and over 10 companies plan to list in Hong Kong [29] - Public - offering funds increased self - purchases, with a total self - purchase amount of over 5 billion yuan this year [30] - Different views on the A - share market, with some suggesting a focus on strong industrial trends and others seeing short - term resistance [30] - South - bound funds' cumulative net inflow exceeded HK$900 billion, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to have a valuation premium [31]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在发酵，本周高频数据也显示国内焦煤产量有所下滑，供 应端支撑焦煤期货仍维持偏强走势。现货市场方面，本周国内炼焦煤市场企稳运行，蒙煤价格 在上周高位回落后，也暂未再次走强，市场观望情绪增加。整体来看，本周焦煤供应有所收 缩，需求小幅增加，基本面边际改善，但后续关键仍在于反内卷整治对焦煤供应是否有长期且 明显的影响，考虑到供应收缩预期短期尚未证伪，焦煤期货预计仍将维持高位震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 供应收缩预期支撑，焦煤期货高 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | 位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 偏强 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday. It is likely to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday, August 11, 2025 [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - The methanol 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 0.17% to 2384 yuan/ton due to the slightly lower domestic coal futures price on the night of last Friday and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [5] Market Trends - In the short - term (within a week), the methanol 2509 contract is expected to oscillate; in the mid - term (two weeks to one month), it is also expected to oscillate; and intraday, it is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Core Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are driven by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face a downward shift [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 7 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 674 元/吨，周环比上涨 22 元/吨，涨幅较上周继续扩大。动力煤自 6 月下旬低点以来，5500K 港口平 仓价已累计上涨 64 元/吨，涨幅达到 10.5%。供需方面，本周国内动力煤供应平稳运行，电煤需 求旺季表现良好，非电端水泥熟料产能利用率显著高于去年同期，叠加煤炭行业反内卷整治工作 提振市场情绪，坑口、港口煤市氛围依然火热，下游电厂补 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the stock index will show an upward trend in the medium - term and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger performance in the short - term. Policy support and positive expectations are the main driving forces, although there may be short - term technical consolidation needs [1][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is volatile and slightly stronger, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is volatile and slightly stronger, and the medium - term view is upward. The reference view is upward. Last Friday, the stock indexes were in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1736.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan from the previous day. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, the policy support expectation still exists. Policy support and positive expectations drive the recovery of stock market risk appetite. Considering the large gains of some stocks and the approaching deadline of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, there may be short - term technical consolidation, but the medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the game between long and short factors. The demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply is rising steadily. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides support for the iron ore price. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakly stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. The positive factor is that the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the demand remains high, providing support for the ore price. However, production restrictions may cause impacts. - Domestic port ore arrivals are rising, while overseas miners' shipments are decreasing. The continuous reduction under high ore prices needs to be tracked. Domestic ore production continues to be weakly stable, and the ore supply is rising steadily. - Overall, with the weakening demand and rising supply, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore price is prone to pressure. But the good profitability of steel mills and the resilience of demand support the ore price, resulting in a high - level oscillating trend [2].