宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 货币政策宽松预期仍存，但短期 内降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。8 月以来，国债期货探底回升，主要是因为 7 月政治 局会议重申了未来落实适度宽松的货币政策，进一步推动实 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength due to the weakening US economy and rising market risk - aversion demand [1]. - Copper is also seen as having short - term strength as the domestic market atmosphere warms up and copper prices stabilize and rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: On Friday night, New York gold rose and then fell, with the main contract price dropping from around $3500 to around $3450. The price difference between New York gold and London gold once widened to $100 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US has added 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars to the tariff - imposed category, causing the New York gold market to differ from London and Shanghai. Short - term New York gold is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper - edge pressure of the range [3]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement on Friday night [4]. - **Core Logic**: The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar index are positive for copper prices, but the risk of overseas recession trading needs to be watched. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of copper prices. In the off - season of the industry, high upstream production, weak downstream demand, and copper inventory accumulation are negative for copper prices. Overall, macro factors are positive and industrial factors are negative, and copper prices are expected to remain strong [4]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][4].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term outlook is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions, causing steel prices to face adjustment pressure [2]. - The steel price is expected to continue the volatile adjustment trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of real - world contradictions and steel prices under adjustment pressure. Also, there are explanations for time - period definitions and calculation methods of price changes [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, spot prices remained stable with average trading volume. The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan had less - than - expected impact. The supply and demand of rebar changed little, with an increase in the weekly output of rebar due to the resumption of production by construction steel mills and good profit per ton, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand improved with an increase in high - frequency indicators, the downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability of the demand improvement during the off - season is questionable. With the implementation of parade - related production restrictions, supply disturbances are weakening. In the situation of both increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not substantially improved, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong performance of coking coal and coke [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a stable and fluctuating trend after a rapid decline, as the bearish sentiment has been fully released, and the futures price has found support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend due to the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend under the influence of OPEC+ countries' decision to significantly increase production in September, which has increased supply pressure and led to a dominant bearish sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons or 1.35% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.40%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.47%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [8]. - As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points week - on - week and a significant decrease of 9.39 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a slight increase of 0.80 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 7.76 percentage points year - on - year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.2%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year - on - year and an increase of 0.6 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In July 2025, China's logistics prosperity index (LPI) was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range [9]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a decrease of 15% month - on - month and an increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.35%, a slight decrease of 1.57% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 4.85% month - on - month, and a slight increase of 3.09% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8453 million tons, a significant decrease of 84,900 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 141,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 111,600 tons compared with 1.7337 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.66%, a slight increase of 0.11% week - on - week; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.27%, a slight increase of 0.55% week - on - week; the acetic acid operating rate was 86.45%, a slight decrease of 2.34% week - on - week; the MTBE operating rate was 53.91%, a slight decrease of 0.93% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.70%, a slight increase of 0.98 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 1.69% month - on - month. As of August 8, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 99 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 18 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight decrease of 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 803,300 tons, a significant increase of 153,000 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 235,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight increase of 26,300 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 7, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 293,800 tons, a slight decrease of 30,900 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 63,100 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 142,100 tons compared with 435,900 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 410, a slight decrease of 5 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.284 million barrels, a slight decrease of 30,000 barrels per day week - on - week and a significant decrease of 116,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.029 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 5.659 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.006 million barrels, a slight increase of 453,000 barrels week - on - week; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight increase of 235,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 96.9%, a slight increase of 1.5 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 2.2 percentage points month - on - month, and a significant increase of 6.4 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 156,023 contracts, a slight increase of 2,692 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared with the June average. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 249,973 contracts, a significant increase of 22,728 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared with the June average [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,400 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,550 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | - 1,150 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,410 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,383 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | + 27 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.2 yuan/barrel | 489.8 yuan/barrel | - 11.2 yuan/barrel | - 23.0 yuan/barrel | + 11.4 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, inventory, and tire production rate; methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, inventory, and olefin production rate; and crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes [17][30][42]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated within a narrow range. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1736.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The economic indicators in the first half of the year showed strong resilience, and the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, but the expectation of policy support still exists. Policy support and the expectation of anti - involution policy benefits have promoted the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite, combined with the suspension of overseas uncertainty risks, jointly driving the recovery of the stock market's risk appetite. Considering that some stocks have achieved significant gains, there is a need for technical consolidation in the market outlook. With the approaching deadline of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, there is a possibility of consolidation and accumulation of momentum for stock indices in the short term. However, in the long term, the upward trend of stock indices remains unchanged. Currently, the risk appetite of the stock market is relatively positive, and it is expected that stock indices will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. Since the implied volatility of options is currently in the normal range and stock indices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a moderate bullish view [3] Summary by Directory 1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 8, 2025, 50ETF fell 0.38% to 2.910; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.24% to 4.183; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.25% to 4.315; CSI 300 Index fell 0.24% to 4104.97; CSI 1000 Index fell 0.35% to 6838.13; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.17% to 6.397; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.16% to 2.556; ChiNext ETF fell 0.34% to 2.312; Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.24% to 2.893; SSE 50 Index fell 0.33% to 2789.17; STAR 50ETF fell 1.44% to 1.10; E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.38% to 1.07 [5] - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR data of various options on August 8, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided, including 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [6] - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are presented, such as 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, SZSE 300ETF options, CSI 300 index options, CSI 1000 index options, SSE 500ETF options, SZSE 500ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shenzhen 100ETF options, SSE 50 index options, STAR 50ETF options, and E Fund STAR 50ETF options [7][8] 2 Related Charts - **50ETF Options**: Include charts of 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [9][10][11] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [20][21] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [23][24] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [36][37] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [49][50] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [62][63] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [75][76] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [90][91] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [101][102] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [114][115] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [128][129] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms [131][132]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: This week, the fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, with the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at ports rising by a total of 250 yuan/ton. After a phased correction at the end of July, the coke futures rebounded strongly in the first week of August. With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market logic has returned to industry anti - involution policies and the commodity's fundamentals. Overall, this week, coke supply and demand remained stable. Considering the repeated supply disruptions of coking coal and the approaching peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the market sentiment is still optimistic, driving the coke futures to fluctuate strongly [3][28]. - **Coking Coal**: The impact of the coal industry's anti - involution policy is still fermenting. High - frequency data this week showed a decline in domestic coking coal production, supporting the coking coal futures to maintain a strong trend. In the spot market, the domestic coking coal market stabilized this week, and the price of Mongolian coal did not strengthen again after last week's high - level correction, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment. Overall, this week, coking coal supply contracted and demand increased slightly, with marginal improvement in fundamentals. The key lies in whether the anti - involution campaign will have a long - term and significant impact on coking coal supply. Considering that the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on the 7th, and many countries strongly oppose it. Although the US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, there are still many uncertainties in implementation [6]. - On August 8th, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT Company had all 128,000 tons of 1/3 coking raw coal with specific specifications (A18.5, V33, S1.1, G70, Mt4.0) at a starting price of $73.4/ton (ex - tax) end in failure. The supply location is the Ganqimaodu Port supervision area in China, and the final supply date is September 30, 2025 [7]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,470 | +3.52% | +3.52% | - 13.02% | - 24.23% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Out - of - warehouse) | 1,440 | +1.41% | +2.86% | - 11.11% | - 19.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,150 | - 0.86% | 0.00% | - 2.54% | - 20.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,540 | +0.65% | +3.36% | +3.36% | - 22.22% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 | 0.00% | 0.00% | +7.84% | - 13.16% | [8] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,653.5 | - 0.27 | 1,666.0 | 1,631.0 | 16,588 | - 9,039 | 19,408 | - 2,502 | | Coking Coal | | 1,227.0 | +0.49 | 1,237.5 | 1,202.0 | 2,099,880 | | 660,256 | +10,835 | [11] Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other production and procurement - related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation [12][16][22] Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fifth - round price increase was implemented this week, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply - demand, coking coal supply disruptions, and approaching peak seasons [3][28]. - **Coking Coal**: The anti - involution policy has led to supply contraction and marginal improvement in fundamentals. The futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend as the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term [3][28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures showed a moderately strong and volatile trend today, with a slight increase in open interest. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index remains weak, which is favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 133,300 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. SMM reported that downstream purchasing sentiment slightly improved on Friday due to downstream stocking demand. With a strong domestic and weak overseas macro - environment and an industrial off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate moderately strongly [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures showed a narrow - range volatile trend today, with a slight decrease in open interest. The domestic atmosphere has warmed up this week, and as aluminum has a strong domestic pricing power, its price has risen significantly. On the industrial side, it is the downstream off - season, and both electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods are showing inventory accumulation. After the macro - environment pushes up the aluminum price, attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded after hitting a low during the day and generally maintained a volatile trend, with little change in open interest. The domestic atmosphere has been good recently, leading to a stronger nickel price, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close their positions is relatively strong. In the short term, the industrial impact is small, and continuous attention should be paid to domestic macro - trends. The futures price is expected to fluctuate moderately strongly, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 122,000 mark [5]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 8th, SMM reported that the copper concentrate inventory at SMM's nine ports was 619,600 physical tons, an increase of 98,000 physical tons from the previous period. The main increase came from Qinzhou Port, where the copper concentrate inventory increased by 70,000 physical tons week - on - week [7]. - **Aluminum**: On August 8th, according to SMM statistics, the total daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 31,091 tons, a decrease of 632 tons from the previous trading day and a decrease of 363 tons from last Friday (August 1st) [7]. - **Nickel**: On August 8th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,390 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,190 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,440 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Since late July, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened. The main futures price has fallen by 4.43% from its high, and the spot price in mainstream areas has dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The correction of optimistic sentiment and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market have led to the decline of steel prices. Currently, the demand for rebar remains weak, the supply benefits are limited, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in production restriction policies [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Optimistic Sentiment Correction - Since July, the dominant logic in the ferrous metal market has been the policy - driven positive expectations from "anti - involution." However, with limited policy implementation, the previous optimistic sentiment has been corrected. The Politburo meeting on July 30 changed the wording on capacity governance, and did not directly mention real - estate policies, weakening market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, affected by the traditional off - season and natural disasters [3] - From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were above the critical point, while the PMI of the consumer goods industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points from June, and that of the high - energy - consuming industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index in July was 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from June, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] Supply Benefits Limited - As of the week ending August 1, the total inventory of rebar was 546290 tons, an increase of 7650 tons from the previous week, but still at a low level in recent years, with a year - on - year decrease of 196080 tons (26.41%). The rebar market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are easy to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar is relatively low at 211060 tons, a decrease of 22830 tons from the previous high, mainly due to long - process steel mills' product transformation [5] - The positive effect of low supply is limited. Some steel mills that previously produced billets have returned to rebar production, and the profitability of short - process steel mills has improved significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 90 independent electric arc furnaces is 52.89%, and the loss ratio is only 12.4%. Their operating rate has reached a high for the year, which will increase rebar supply. However, steel mills around Beijing may suspend production to ensure the smooth progress of the September 3 parade, which may boost the steel market sentiment [5][6] Demand Remains Weak - Due to weak demand, industrial contradictions in rebar continue to accumulate. As of the week ending August 1, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 203410 tons, a new low, down 5.67% year - on - year. Cement out - bound volume and concrete shipment volume, which directly reflect terminal demand, are also weak, down 10.43% and 4.91% year - on - year respectively [7] - The real - estate sales are sluggish, and there is no substantial improvement in the downstream industries of rebar. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The increase in steel prices in July stimulated the release of investment demand, and the increase in the number of rebar warehouse receipts on the SHFE may further increase the pressure on the demand side [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the context of the decline in domestic and international crude oil futures prices, the cost support for styrene weakens. Meanwhile, the supply pressure of styrene both at home and abroad increases, while downstream demand is mediocre and even shows a slight contraction, leading to the accumulation of styrene port and factory inventories. It is expected that the domestic styrene futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost Support Weakening - The main raw materials of styrene are pure benzene and ethylene, and crude oil price fluctuations directly affect styrene production costs. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the cumulative increase from April to August reached 1.919 million barrels per day, leading to a weak downward trend in crude oil futures prices and weakening styrene cost support [3]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - sentiment drive, the oil market is temporarily dominated by the supply - strengthening logic, and it is expected that the domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a weak oscillatory trend in the future [4]. Supply Pressure Rebound - As of the week of August 6, the domestic styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 78.92%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week; the overall production was 361,500 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons from the previous week, with an increase of only 0.11% [4]. - As of the end of July, the total domestic styrene production capacity was 21.792 million tons. In August, the styrene plants of Hebei Xuyang and Jinxi Petrochemical resumed operation, and there were few planned maintenance, so the overall domestic styrene maintenance loss continued to decline. If there are no sudden styrene plant maintenance situations, the domestic styrene production is expected to increase to about 1.63 million tons. In addition, multiple sets of pure benzene and styrene - related plants are expected to be put into production in August, and the domestic styrene supply is expected to remain at a high level [5]. Inventory Overall Upturn - In July, the overall demand of the three major downstream sectors of domestic styrene decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 25,200 tons. In June, China's styrene imports were 21,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.78% and a year - on - year increase of 44.91% [5]. - As of the end of July, the total sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports in China reached 164,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,200 tons. As of July 31, the sample inventory of styrene plants was 217,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,400 tons, an increase of 8.70% [6].