Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for Iron Ore 2601 are all in a state of shock, with an overall view of shock and weakness. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the ore price will continue to fluctuate [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Demand is weakening while supply remains high, so the market fundamentals are weak and the ore price is under pressure. However, the switching of the arbitrage logic provides support, and the short - term trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively shock, shock, and shock with a weak bias. The overall view is shock and weakness, and the core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the continuous fluctuation of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. Terminal consumption of ore is weakening, and steel mills' profitability is poor with unsolved industrial contradictions, so ore demand will continue to be weak. Although domestic port ore arrivals are continuously falling, overseas miners' shipments have increased significantly, and subsequent arrivals are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overseas supply remains active, and domestic ore supply is stable, so ore supply remains high. The market fundamentals are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The switching of the arbitrage logic provides support, and the short - term trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5]. 3. Summaries by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend on the night of last Friday, with futures prices slightly lower. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The macro sentiment weakened as the US September non - farm payroll data announced last weekend was significantly worse than expected [5]. - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that the price of 5500K thermal coal will maintain a strong - oscillating trend. Terminal user procurement demand will continue to support coal prices as supply improvement is limited and demand is expected to seasonally strengthen from mid - December, with port inventories being moderately balanced [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating". The core logic is that terminal procurement supports high - level oscillations in port coal prices [1]. 3.2 Price Driving Logic - In mid - November, affected by the cold wave, domestic temperatures dropped sharply, with a cumulative cooling of up to 20°C in some coastal areas. Coal consumption for power generation is expected to gradually increase in December. As of November 20, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 25.883 million tons, a monthly cumulative increase of 1.775 million tons and 2.916 million tons lower than the same period last year. With port inventories starting to accumulate, downstream resistance to high - priced coal sources has increased, but overall, supply improvement is limited and demand may strengthen seasonally, leading to a strong - oscillating trend in coal prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with the short - term sentiment of taking profits rising in the stock market. The medium - term view is that the stock index is in a range - bound state, and in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow remain unchanged. After short - term shock consolidation, the outlook for the stock index in the long - term is not pessimistic [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is range - bound, the medium - term view is range - bound, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is range - bound. The core logic is that the willingness of funds to settle profits increases in the short term [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weak, the medium - term view is range - bound, and the reference view is range - bound. The main reason for the recent stock index correction is that the marginal driving force of domestic policy benefits weakens, and there is risk transmission from overseas stock markets. On November 24, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1983.6 billion yuan, an increase of 261 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short term, the stock index is mainly range - bound due to intensified market games, but in the long - term, the positive policy expectations and the trend of continuous capital inflow remain unchanged [5]

品种晨会纪要 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-24 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前煤制甲醇装置亏损程度持续扩大，供应端收缩预期增强。同时临近冬季取暖需求旺 季，西南天然气制甲醇面临限气预期。当下国内港口库存依然高企，外部进口维持高 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report believes that the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the steel price will continue to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is weakly oscillating, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the steel price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, the spot price of steel remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Construction steel mills have resumed production, supply has increased again, and the high inventory pressure has not been relieved. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the sustainability is doubtful. The current performance of major downstream industries is weak, and the subsequent demand will decline seasonally, continuing to drag down the steel price [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak. The reference view is weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are approaching the off - season, the supply of domestic full - latex is expected to decline. The downstream automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic. However, the macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data released last weekend. The Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, and are expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak. The reference view is weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The recent macro - sentiment is okay, but the slight decline of domestic and international crude oil futures on Thursday night weakened the rebound momentum of synthetic rubber futures. The downstream automobile production and sales data in the rubber market are optimistic, and the synthetic rubber market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated". The macro - sentiment weakened due to the significantly worse - than - expected US September non - farm payrolls data released last weekend. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session last Friday, and are expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [7].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应预期减弱，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑不足，焦炭弱势震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温 | | 铜 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡运行，纽约金在 4000 美元上方震荡，沪金在 920 元上方震荡。临近周末， 市场情绪出现反转。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表了被市场解读为"鸽派"的讲话，重燃了交易员对于 12 月可能降息 ...