Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The price of domestic thermal coal has been strong this week, and it is expected to continue to strengthen this summer. The resonance of multiple favorable factors, such as peak season and anti - involution policy disturbances, has driven the coal price to run strongly [4]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Varieties Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Price Performance**: As of August 7, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase rate continued to expand compared with last week. Since the low point in late June, the FOB price of 5500K at the port has increased by 64 yuan/ton in total, with a growth rate of 10.5% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of domestic thermal coal has been running smoothly this week. The peak season of thermal coal demand has performed well. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Coupled with the anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry boosting market sentiment, the atmosphere in the pit - mouth and port coal markets is still hot. The replenishment demand of downstream power plants continues to be released, and the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is high [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 7, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4819 billion tons, basically unchanged week - on - week and slightly lower than the inventory of the same period last year by 22400 tons. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834400 tons in total from the inventory peak in May, and the inventory in the intermediate link has been effectively reduced, supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment of agricultural commodity futures is affected by various factors, including international policies, trade relations, and supply - demand situations of different products. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and each product has different trends in the short, medium, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.豆粕（M） - **View**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Trump's tweet boosted US soybean prices, while domestic soybean meal futures prices fell due to loose funds. The industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and short - term Sino - US trade relations affect market sentiment [5]. 3.2.棕榈油（P） - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, reference view is strongly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: MPOB's report shows strong Malaysian palm oil exports and lower - than - expected inventory. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may affect export supply, causing short - term price strength [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - For different products (such as soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, palm 2509), their short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are affected by factors like import arrival rhythm, customs clearance, oil refinery operation rhythm, biofuel policies, inventory, and production and export in major producing countries [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday bias towards being volatile on the stronger side. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For major varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation is that Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation phase in the short term. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. Since the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate has emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. Treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded since August. The rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market has led to a decline in the demand for Treasury bonds, putting short - term pressure on Treasury bond futures. However, the macro - economic data in the first half of the year showed strong resilience, and the policy side emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to further reduce the cost of real - entity financing, increasing the expectation of future loosening [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the expectation of loose monetary policy and low short - term interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The logic includes the oscillation and pull - back of Treasury bond futures yesterday, the anchoring effect of the policy rate on the market interest rate, the bottoming - out and rebound of Treasury bond futures since August, the impact of the stock market on Treasury bond demand, and the expectation of future monetary policy loosening [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 市场预期乐观，焦煤偏强震荡 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 现货氛围良好，焦炭高位运行 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising, with an overall view of an upward trend. Policy support and positive expectations from anti - involution policies, along with a temporary suspension of overseas uncertainties, drive up the risk appetite of the stock market. Although there is a need for technical consolidation in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The half - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1849.9 billion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The narrowing of the month - on - month decline in PPI in July and the improvement in the supply - demand relationship in some industries indicate the positive role of anti - involution policies. Policy support and positive expectations drive up the risk appetite of the stock market, and although there is a need for short - term technical consolidation, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2] Market Driving Logic - The implementation of the production - restriction expectation is less than expected, and the raw materials have strengthened again, driving up steel prices. However, in the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The production of construction steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased significantly. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the improvement in off - season demand is of questionable sustainability. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue to rise due to overseas mine disruptions and a warming domestic market, despite industry off - season factors. Overall, with positive macro factors, copper prices are expected to remain strong [2][52] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise as the domestic market warms up again, but pay attention to the rhythm as the market has experienced a rise and a correction, and also consider the high - level pressure in July [3][53] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: In July, economic data consistently fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [7] - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up again [7] - Incident: Codelco in Chile stopped ore processing at its largest copper mine after a fatal tunnel collapse on July 31. The accident is expected to reduce copper production by about 30,000 tons per month, equivalent to a quarter of Codelco's total output [7] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement in the night session on Friday, and the trading volume increased [2][52] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Continue to Decline - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, indicating a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, reflecting an expected tight supply and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [23] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking Slows Down - There is information about the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), showing the situation of inventory changes [30] 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - There is a figure showing the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries, including sectors such as refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper rods, and copper strips [34] 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded, and the trading volume increased [3][53] 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - There are figures showing the inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [40][44] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - Both overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory show an inventory accumulation trend [43] 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - There are figures showing the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, reflecting the downstream situation [46][51] 4. Conclusion - Copper: With positive macro factors and an industry off - season, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded and are expected to remain strong [52] - Aluminum: As the domestic market warms up, aluminum prices may continue to rise, but pay attention to the market rhythm and the high - level pressure in July [53]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed strong performance. On Friday night, COMEX gold first soared and then declined, with the main contract price dropping from around $3,500 to around $3,450. The prices of SHFE gold and London gold had little fluctuation, and the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold once widened to $100. The new US tariff policy led to a different trend of COMEX gold compared to London gold and SHFE gold. The short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range [3][24]. - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, which may increase the expectation of a US economic recession and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but specific trend details are not elaborated [6]. 1.2 Index Changes | Index | August 8 | August 1 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,458.20 | $3,416.00 | 1.24% | | COMEX Silver | $38.51 | $37.11 | 3.79% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 787.80 | 770.72 | 2.22% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,278.00 | 8,918.00 | 4.04% | | US Dollar Index | 98.26 | 98.69 | - 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 7.19 | 7.19 | - 0.02% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.88 | 1.90 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,389.45 | 6,238.01 | 2.43% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $63.35 | $67.26 | - 5.81% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 89.80 | 92.06 | - 2.46% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.91 | 86.42 | - 1.75% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 959.64 | 953.08 | 6.56 | | iShare Gold ETF | 452.61 | 450.04 | 2.57 | [7] 2. Gold Price Fluctuation - The US economic data continued to be worse than expected last week, increasing the market's recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index weakened again. The US stock market maintained a strong performance, with high market risk appetite, which put pressure on the gold price [9][11]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to rise. As of August 5, the long position increased by 10,953 contracts, the short position decreased by 2,501 contracts, and the long net position increased by 13,454 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [13][14]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has started to climb. In early June, the silver price rose sharply, and the corresponding ETF positions increased significantly. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, the capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance. Last week, silver first soared and then declined. As the gold price fell back, the gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly [16][18]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the short - term COMEX gold remains in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper limit pressure of the range. The US economic recession expectation and the Fed's rate - cut expectation may increase, which is beneficial to the gold price, and it is expected that the gold price will run strongly [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market maintained strong performance with a slight increase in open interest. Favorable domestic and overseas macro - factors, such as rising overseas interest - rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar index, along with a decline in Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory, may keep copper prices strong [5]. - The Shanghai aluminum market oscillated upward with a slight decrease in open interest. Although the domestic market atmosphere was favorable, the downstream off - season led to inventory accumulation, and it is expected that the futures price will show a moderately strong oscillation [6]. - The nickel price oscillated upward with little change in open interest, and the main futures price broke through the 122,000 - yuan mark. Supported by the improved domestic macro - environment and stable nickel ore operations with rising port inventories, the nickel price is expected to follow the macro - trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 11, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,200 tons, a decrease of 210 tons compared to August 4 and 110 tons compared to August 7 [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 571,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 4 and 22,000 tons compared to August 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 11, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2509 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton with a price of 124,160 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton with a price of 122,460 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton with a price of 125,160 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton with a price of 124,510 yuan/ton [11]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warrant inventory, etc. [12][14][15] Aluminum - Charts involve aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, alumina inventory, etc. [35][31][27] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [38][44][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围主导，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：据钢联统计，8 月 8 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦 炭日均产量 111.9 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.12 万吨，基本持平。由于周 内焦炭提涨落地，且原材料焦煤现货价格企稳，焦企利润迎来好转，最新 一期独立焦化厂吨焦盈利录得-16 元/吨，周环比增加 29 元/吨。需求 端，8 月 8 日当周，全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 240.32 万吨，周环比 小幅下降 0.39 万吨。钢厂盈利率继续 ...