Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 5, the combined daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1.1223 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,200 tons per day. The latest ton - coke profit improved by 9 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton. The average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2884 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 112,900 tons per day. The total coke inventory increased slightly to 8.9528 million tons, mainly accumulating in steel mills. The "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation drove market sentiment, and strong cost expectations supported the upward rebound of coke futures, but the sustainability of the upward trend depends on subsequent specific policies [3][32]. - **Coking Coal**: This week, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 693,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 60,000 tons; coke daily output was 1.1223 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 16,200 tons; pig iron daily output was 2.2884 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 112,900 tons. The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations. However, the risk of the "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation was being released, and strong expectations pushed coking coal futures to strengthen again. The subsequent price trend of coking coal depends on whether the coal industry association and enterprises will introduce new policies or self - regulatory measures to support the "anti - involution" work [4][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - The central bank will conduct a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5 for a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [5]. - On September 5, Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at a price of 835 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton higher than the previous day. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply will be completed within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being December 4, 2025 [6]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 7.10% | - 7.10% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,420 | - 4.05% | - 4.05% | - 12.35% | - 12.35% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 1,180 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 16.01% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,530 | - 3.16% | - 3.16% | 2.68% | - 9.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,550 | - 4.91% | - 4.91% | 1.31% | - 10.40% | [7] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,646.5 | 4.71 | 1,662.5 | 1,574.5 | 34,829 | 11,280 | 47,026 | 199 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,158.5 | 6.33 | 1,172.0 | 1,090.5 | 1,732,556 | 547,153 | 721,541 | - 12,086 | [10] 4. Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [11][13][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][20][23]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant start - up (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [25][27][31]. 5. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke have not improved significantly. The "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation drove market sentiment, and strong cost expectations supported the upward rebound of coke futures, but the sustainability of the upward trend depends on subsequent specific policies [32]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations, but the "anti - involution" policy's second fermentation risk was being released, and strong expectations pushed coking coal futures to strengthen again. The subsequent price trend of coking coal depends on new policies or self - regulatory measures [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All stock indices fluctuated and rose today, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices having relatively large increases. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 2348.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 233.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The anti - involution related sectors led the gains, indicating an increase in the market's expectation for anti - involution policies. The short - term technical adjustment of stock indices was caused by the rising profit - taking demand of profitable funds, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic of stock indices remained strong. In the medium to long term, the expectation of favorable policies and the loose capital situation provided strong support for stock indices. On the policy front, the Ministry of Finance and the central bank jointly promoted the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies today, and the expectation of policy support for the economy in the future was relatively clear. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies jointly promoted the macro - economic recovery from both supply and demand sides. In terms of capital, the liquidity was relatively loose. Against the background of the "asset shortage", the attractiveness of equity assets was strong, and incremental funds continued to flow in, which would drive the repair of stock valuations. In general, stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the profit - taking situation of previously profitable funds and the fermentation of favorable policy expectations. Currently, the implied volatility of options continues to rise. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 5, 2025, the 50ETF rose 1.25% to close at 3.072; the SSE 300ETF rose 2.20% to close at 4.554; the SZSE 300ETF rose 2.24% to close at 4.696; the CSI 300 index rose 2.18% to close at 4460.32; the CSI 1000 index rose 2.90% to close at 7245.67; the SSE 500ETF rose 3.42% to close at 7.011; the SZSE 500ETF rose 3.32% to close at 2.800; the GEM ETF rose 7.02% to close at 2.944; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 4.15% to close at 3.360; the SSE 50 index rose 1.09% to close at 2942.22; the STAR 50ETF rose 3.43% to close at 1.33; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 3.51% to close at 1.30 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 79.88 (previous day: 94.23), and the position PCR was 85.34 (previous day: 78.53) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in September 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were reported. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in September 2025 was 19.37%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 15.40% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes a series of charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, SZSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms of the underlying assets of each option [9][21][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market continues a stable growth trend, with the China Commodity Price Index rising for four consecutive months, indicating an enhancement of the economy's endogenous growth momentum [2]. - The bond market faces certain pressures, including crowded trading, insufficient entry of allocation funds, and potential stock market diversion. Different research institutions have varying outlooks on the bond market, with some suggesting caution and others seeing potential opportunities in specific strategies [25]. - The A - share market experienced a normal adjustment on September 4, and the upward trend of the market is often a spiral - type ascent with risk - releasing retracements after rapid rises [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1]. - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and the Non - Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.3% [1]. - In July 2025, M1 and M2 increased by 5.6% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, showing an upward trend [1]. - In July 2025, exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China Commodity Price Index in August 2025 was 111.7 points, up 0.3% month - on - month, with 25 out of 50 monitored commodities seeing price increases [2]. - China implemented anti - circumvention measures on September 4 against US - exported cut - off wavelength shifted single - mode optical fibers [2]. - Huawei launched a new three - fold mobile phone on September 4, starting at 17,999 yuan, and invited strategic partners for product demonstrations [3]. - A Fed official said the labor market may be deteriorating and inflation may rise again [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On September 4, international precious metal futures generally closed lower due to increasing internal differences within the Fed on monetary policy [4]. - On September 4, the domestic lithium carbonate futures contract 2511 stopped falling and rebounded, closing up 1.05% at 73,420 yuan/ton, but still down about 20% from its high [5]. - The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased on September 4 [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In late August, the price of coke (quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke) increased by 4.47% month - on - month, reaching a new high since early February, while the price of anthracite decreased by 1.95% [6]. - Vale plans to invest $12.3 billion in upgrading five iron ore facilities by 2030 [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On September 4, the US oil futures contract closed lower due to potential OPEC+ production increases and an unexpected rise in US crude inventories [7]. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said the OPEC+ meeting's agenda is undetermined, and the decision on production increase will depend on market conditions [8]. - Brazil's crude oil and iron ore exports increased in August compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In late August, most agricultural product prices fell, with the price of live pigs (external ternary) hitting a new low since mid - April 2022 [9]. - The central government allocated 940 million yuan to support post - flood agricultural restoration in four provinces [9]. - The US and Japan are implementing a trade agreement, and Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [9]. - Brazil's export of agricultural products and manufactured goods increased from January to August 2025, but its exports to the US decreased in August due to US tariffs [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 4, the central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [12]. - On September 5, the central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, and there is a possibility of subsequent over - renewal [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - As of September 3, 537 special bond acquisition projects have been implemented, with only 18 for purchasing existing commercial housing [13]. - In August, local government bond issuance was 977.6 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for about half, and over 40% of new special bonds used for debt resolution [13]. - The Securities Association of China launched the evaluation of securities companies' investment banking and bond business in 2025 [13]. - As of Q2 2025, the total scale of asset management products in China reached 75.38 trillion yuan [14]. - The real estate market is expected to be activated with the arrival of "Golden September" and the introduction of new support policies [14]. - Alibaba initiated an exchange offer for its 1.15 billion US dollar notes due in 2035 [14]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook, and investors are increasingly worried about the Fed's independence [15]. - The Fed's September interest rate decision is expected to face significant internal differences, with potential differences in voting even if a 25 - basis - point cut is made [15]. - Trump's nominee for Fed governor, Stephen Milan, will attend a Senate hearing, and he is expected to be approved soon [15]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected, and the initial jobless claims reached a new high since June [16]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with some bond yields rising and others falling. The central bank's net withdrawal did not tighten the inter - bank liquidity [18]. - The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and others falling, and the convertible bond index generally declined [18][19]. - Most money market interest rates showed an upward trend, and the yields of domestic and foreign government bonds generally declined [19][21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on September 4, and the US dollar index also increased slightly, with most non - US currencies falling [23][24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that short - term credit bonds are more resilient, and a short - duration credit - sinking strategy is recommended [25]. - Shenwan Fixed Income expects September to be a difficult waiting period for the bond market, with attention to the structural widening pressure of credit spreads [25]. - CITIC Securities believes that the liquidity gap in September may narrow, and there may be opportunities for leverage and credit bond carry strategies [25]. 3.4 Stock Market - On September 4, the A - share market weakened, with technology stocks falling and bank stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83% [27]. - The Hong Kong stock market also declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling 1.12%. Some stocks were bought and others were sold by south - bound funds [27]. - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited released the market overview for August, showing significant year - on - year increases in market capitalization and trading volume [28].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭期价反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-05 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重 心面临下移。本周四夜盘国内煤炭期货价格小幅上涨，导致甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势， 期价小幅收涨 1.18 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The main reason is that the expected increase in supply outweighs geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly weak [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly closed down 0.06% to 483.3 yuan/barrel, and the decline has slowed down [5]. - It is expected that on Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - The market is worried that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, and the increasing supply pressure outweighs geopolitical risk factors [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although it is the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asian producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market production and sales are better than expected, tire prosperity remains high, export growth has rebounded, and demand factors support. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.10% to 16055 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. Although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, driven by the slight strengthening of domestic Shanghai rubber futures on Thursday night, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 0.59% to 11855 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View The fundamentals of iron ore are expected to weaken as demand resilience fades and supply pressure increases, which will cause the overvalued iron ore price to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market during the peak season [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance and Support Factors - Since August, the iron ore price has been oscillating at a high level with a significantly stronger overall trend compared to other ferrous metal varieties. The support comes from stable steel - mill production and high terminal consumption of ore, as well as the intervention of variety arbitrage funds [2]. Valuation Situation - Iron ore is a relatively over - valued variety in the ferrous metal industry chain. The absolute price of iron ore is close to the annual high, and the basis is at a low level in the same period over the years. The relative valuation shows that the ratios of iron ore to steel and iron ore to coke are approaching historical highs, and steel - mill profits are shrinking [3]. Demand Situation - The terminal consumption of iron ore has been declining, with the daily average hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of 247 sample steel mills showing a downward trend as of the week ending August 29. Although the high - frequency demand indicators are still at a relatively high level and the peak season is approaching, steel - mill profitability is deteriorating, and downstream demand for building materials and exports are weak, so iron ore demand is weakening [4]. Supply Situation - Overseas miners are actively shipping, and the global weekly iron ore shipment has reached a new high this year. The supply increase mainly comes from Brazilian ore and non - mainstream ore. The arrival volume at domestic ports has increased, and there is still room for growth in subsequent arrivals, so the supply pressure of iron ore will continue to increase [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The power coal market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the near term, but the callback space of coal prices may be limited due to supply - side support from the "anti - involution" policy [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Market Logic - **Supply**: In late August, safety supervision in major coal - producing areas remained strict. With the approaching of the September 3rd military parade, the frequency and thoroughness of coal mine safety inspections increased, which continued to suppress coal production [4]. - **Demand**: Although the daily consumption of thermal coal remained high in the short term, as the off - season approached, terminal enterprises became more hesitant, putting downward pressure on coal prices [4]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22nd, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3264 billion tons, with a significant monthly de - stocking of 370.5 million tons. The inventory was 76.6 million tons lower than the same period last year, and the high - inventory advantage in the first half of the year had been basically eliminated [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 偏空因素堆积，焦煤高位回调 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1180.0 元/吨， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面弱势运行，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势格局未变，周产量高位小幅回落，但旺季生产积极性未退，供应压力未缓 解。与此同时，螺纹钢需求弱势运行，高频指标回落且继续位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未 好转，旺季需求改善空间存疑。总之，螺纹供需两端均有所走弱，基本面并未好转，库存持续增 加，钢价承压 ...