大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-2 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。近期受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，原油走势偏强，带动装置利润差、成本支撑强的聚烯烃盘 面走强。供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，停工放假企业增多，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样订单 偏少。当前LL交割品现货价6940（+60），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-74，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存34.8万吨（-3.1），偏多； • 4. 盘面： ...

• 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1770（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-20，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），中性； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，预计开工继续回升，下游订单尚可，储备需求有所提升， 库存去库，预计UR今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-2 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, cold repair is less than expected, supply is at a low level, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, the inventory is above the 5 - year average, the price is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short and the short position is increasing [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1087 yuan/ton to 1056 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 940 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 147 yuan/ton to - 116 yuan/ton, an increase of - 21.09% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 940 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of further cold repair in the industry due to low production profit [2][4]. Fundamentals - Supply Side - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 213, with an operating rate of 71.86%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 151,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [19][21]. Fundamentals - Demand Side - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [25][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 52.564 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.23% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [40]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, consumption, and other data of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [41].

棉花早报——2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量 2608.1万吨，消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿 美元，同比下降5.12%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比 增加13.33%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存 835万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价16183，基差1513（05合约），升水期货；偏多。 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供应方面，前 期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供，市场供应充足。产业 链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库 存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货146150，基差6150，偏多 3、库存：LME库存286284，-186，上交所仓单46876，+22，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货104460，基差-780， 贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：1月30日铜库存减1100至174975吨，上期所铜库存较上周增7067吨至233004吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，注意仓位控制 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-2-2） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：国内煤矿在春节前保持平稳生产节奏。下游冬储补库接近尾声，对炼焦煤采购量逐步减少， 加之中间环节出货意愿增强，市场情绪稍有转弱，近日线上竞拍成交一般，价格跌多涨少，上游煤矿价 格偏高的出货不畅，部分降价慢的煤矿仍有补跌现象，由于煤矿多有预售订单且暂无库存压力，挺价意 愿较强；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1180，基差24.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：当下焦企提产仍不及预期，原料煤实际需求边际未明显改善，加之本周铁水产量下移，刚需 减弱下，下游市场仍是按需补库为主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the oil and fat market is that prices are oscillating and consolidating, with a relatively neutral domestic fundamental situation and stable domestic oil and fat supply. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global oil and fat fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the month - end inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,640, with a basis of 358, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. It is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will oscillate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,196, with a basis of - 44, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. It is bearish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report situation is the same, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. The situation is neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,298, with a basis of 918, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - Inventory: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will oscillate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil and fat inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-2-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1160元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1204元/吨，基差为-44元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存154.42万吨，较前一周增加1.51%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复，且 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。 2025年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率 33.39%。2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97 万吨，同比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：郑糖主力05上方60日均线压力较大，短期受压回落。周五夜盘外糖再度走低，进口糖低 价压制，国内白糖冲高动力不足。预计继续在5200上下震荡整理。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5370，基差12 ...