沪铜早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货85370，基差-700，升水期货；偏空。 3、库存：10月23日铜库存增75至136925吨，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至109690吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-27甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，上游工厂库存不高，以及煤炭价格坚挺，成本端支撑加强，且当前产区甲醇价格已处于偏低水 平，对内地行情均有一定支撑。但同时当前内地整体开工仍处于偏高水平，局部地区如关中有一定供应压力。而烯烃利 润大幅挤压，当前成本压力明显据悉港口部分烯烃装置降负，对甲醇的负反馈逐步显现。另外港口库存居高不下，新一 轮合约周期即将开启，场内货源供应并不紧缺。业者对后市信心一般，预计内地涨跌空间有限。港口方面，受制裁事件 影响，伊朗进口船货卸货被无限期推延，在炒作支撑下，港口市场下行动力减弱，但基本面偏弱事实下，预计本周港 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price - related**: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 甲醇周报 （10.20 -10.24 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：多空多种因素交织下，预计下周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，上游工厂库存不高，以 及煤炭价格坚挺，成本端支撑加强，且当前产区甲醇价格已处于偏低水平，对内地行情均有一定支撑。但同 时当前内地整体开工仍处于偏高水平，局部地区如关中有一定供应压力。而烯烃利润大幅挤压，当前成本压 力明显据悉港口部分烯烃装置降负，对甲醇的负反馈逐步显现。另外港口库存居高不下，新一轮合约周期即 将开启，场内货源供应并不紧缺。业者对后市信心一般，预计内地涨跌空间有限。港口方面，受制裁事件影 响，伊朗进口船货卸货被无限期推延，在炒作支撑下，港口 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 近期要闻： 1.国内水产养殖进入长假后淡季，现货市场供应短期进入偏紧预期，需 求端逐渐减少压制盘面预期，加拿大油菜籽进入收割阶段，但中加贸易问题 影响短期出口减少国内供应预期。 2.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查初步裁定成立，并开始征收进口 保证金75.8%，一旦最终裁定成立，保证金将作为加征关税不予退还，但是 未来裁定结果尚有变数，等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产，主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响，全球地缘冲突未 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中美贸易谈判变数，豆粕探底回升 （豆粕周报10.20-10.24） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期转淡， 油厂压榨量维持高位 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏弱，油厂开机预 计 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-27原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 近期多空分析 利多： 利空： 行情驱动：短期地缘冲突再度加强，中长期面临供应增加风险 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏，放开增产；战争风险升级 1. 中美贸易谈判有乐观信号释放 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄制裁增加 1.中东局缓和 2.美国政府关停风险 3.OPEC+考虑继续增产 每日期货行情 1.基本面：多在中美高级别经济官员于周日结束的贸易会谈中形成初步共识后，美国总统特朗普表示， 他有信心与中国达成协议；据一位美国官员和另一位熟知内情的人士透露，如果俄罗斯总统普京总统 继续拖延结束俄乌战争，美国总统特朗普 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 2980. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean is affected by the high imports of soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [10][11]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 may maintain an oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals include the US soybean's oscillatory decline, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount. The inventory decreased compared to last week and last year, but the main position's short - selling increased and funds flowed out [9]. - The soybean A2601 may also oscillate. The fundamentals are affected by the US soybean situation, high imports of soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [11]. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation is in a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, imports of soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The imports of soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - The profit of pig farming in China decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total imports of soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2025 [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, end - inventory, new - bean exports, and other data of the US in the past six months [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data summary is provided other than the increase of short positions in the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans and the corresponding capital flow information [9][11].

纯碱周报 2025.10.20-10.24 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 每周观点 上周纯碱期货窄幅震荡，主力合约SA2601收盘较前一周上涨1.65%报1229元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1180元/吨，较节前上涨2.61%。 供给方面，近期纯碱检修企业少，下周暂无检修，个别企业负荷提升，下周产量预计76 万吨，开工率87%，供应依旧处于较高水平，远兴能源二期预计在年底前投产，整体供给充 裕。需求端，下游需求一般，按需为主，目前整体现状偏弱，资金压力持续；周内浮法日熔 量16.13万吨，环比稳定，光伏日熔量8.87万吨，环比下降100吨；截止10月23日，全国纯碱 厂内库存170.21万吨，较前一周增加0.09%，库存处于历史同期高位。综合来看，纯碱基本 面延续疲 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai copper increasing by 3.95% to close at 87,720 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines, and the sharp rise in precious metals stimulated the increase in copper prices. Domestically, it is the consumption peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,448 tons to 104,792 tons compared with the previous week. The copper market will be in a tight - balance situation in 2024 and an oversupply situation in 2025 [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 3.95% to 87,720 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines, and the sharp rise in precious metals stimulated the increase in copper prices. Domestically, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot trading is mainly for rigid - demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5,448 tons to 104,792 tons compared with the previous week [4]. 基本面（库存结构） - **PMI**: No specific content is provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market will be in a tight - balance situation in 2024 and an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in a de - stocking state, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][19]. 市场结构 - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content is provided [27]. - **Import Profit**: No specific content is provided [30]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content is provided.